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To understand the upside down nature of and distortions in capital markets by 2024 look at this set of valuations. Can you tell which market capitalization or valuation is out of step in this list? Boeing $100 billion GM       $67 billion TikTok    $300 billion Intel        $105 billion Apple      $3400 billion Nvidia       $3650 billion   Answer:  TikTok, Nvidia Another way to look at it the combined valuation of Intel, GM and Boeing is $272 billion, less tha Tiktok at $300 billion.  What if these companies disappeared tomorrow- would everything come to a standstill? Almost standstill as there would be no more laptops, cars and planes, much of our modern life would come to a standstill. Remove TikTok would life come to a standstill? Better still the capital allocated to TikTok is put into education, and financial literacy, cultural literacy, would life come to a standstill or are we better off with a more educated citizenry? ...

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A Hyundai shipyard can build a military ship for $600 million that would cost the US about three times that number -$1.6 billion. South Korea can control costs with its marine shipyard capacity to build 40 ships a year in shorter time frame by 20 months. Note that the US had 17 shipyards in 1970, by 2020 it had dropped to 5 ships. Why is this a problem? China has this type of advantage in cost and expertise so that it would be even with the US current capacity by 2030.  Naval power made it possible for first Britain and then the US to provide the structure for the Modern World based on science and technology to grow and improve living standards. Unlike in the colonial era the US has helped raise living standards in China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, all parts of the world.  An administration that has focus and concentration in its leadership and is based on a concept of the Modern World based on science and technology is best suited for the task of renewing America for its role for the next generation of Americans. ...

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 Angela Rayner of Labour in the UK government made labour rights a core part of what she wants to see achieved. This was an idea conceived in 2021 when Labour was in the Opposition, the idea of setting down key labor rights that don't get watered down. This includes restrictions on zero-hours contracts, giving employees full rights from “day one” of their employment, and ending the way companies fired workers then rehired them on lower pay and benefits. Over the last 3 decades since Thatcher and Reagan worker rights have been watered down by employers and successive administrations of Conservatives as well as Labour in UK and Republicans as well as Democrats in US watched it happen doing nothing. As a result a culture of impunity with worker rights developed which have led to the shift of workers out of the Labour party in Britain and Democratic party in the US. This coincided with the neglect of rural areas and farmers by Labour and Democrats creating the unimaginable situation for a Wilson or a JFK in the 1960's where labor was no longer a core part of who Labour in UK or Democrats in US were about. ...

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African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

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Allyson Chiu and Emily Wright show how inventors in India are working on more efficient residential air conditioning units that cool single rooms. About 1.2 billion units are there across the globe, billions more may be needed to replace the old ones and to meet surging demand in Asia, Latin America and Africa. International Energy Agency estimate is for these AC units to triple by 2050 what they are now, adding 2.4 billion AC units. Using the existing technology and emissions would mean putting 2 billion metric tons of emissions from these older AC units into the atmosphere in 2050 or what 476 million cars put out, says IEA.  The Indian government, RMI, a global coalition including Gree of China, and Daikin of Japan are doing the research on new AC units. In 2015 about 5% of India's 300 million households had such AC units. 8-10 million units were sold in 2023. This would rise to 1 billion units sold and installed by 2050 says IEA, that would emit 25 gigatons of cumulative emissions in 2050, or what a staggering  6 billion gas powered cars emit. ...

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How reckless actions that ignored public sentiment on illegal migrants have led to a surge in Germany and the US of foreign born populations, It jumped in Germany from 7.5% in 1990 to 21% by 2025 and in the US from 10% in 1990 to to 16%  in 2025. This means as shown by NYT graphs the US went up by 60% and Germany went up by a shocking 300%. This is why young Germans voted for the AfD. Merz's CDU has rejected Merkel policies and has imposed a series of actions to put in border controls, stop migrants.  Putting such stress on working class communities is an affront to people when they face crime as has happened in recent years, and when cost of living issues, covid pandemic have already caused much stress. Here the NYT reverses its position on migration and speaks of the dangers of such migration, the stress on woking class communities where migrants settle, on the public services and resources stretched to their limit. It now says Merkel made a huge mistake and ignored public sentiment leading to the situation where extreme opinions endanger democracy and young people in Germany prefer the AfD to the CDU and SPD, or the Greens. ...

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As a new architectural aspect takes shape in New Delhi the Indian Express describes what cam before it and over which the new layer takes place. The shift of the capital from Calcutta to New Delhi in 1911 with Curzon's partition of Bengal leading to much unrest in the Bengal region. Lutyens was the architect of that colonial Delhi laid out for a mere period of 30 years when it became obsolete with the Quit India Movement of 1941. The capital has remained in New Delhi, only to be redone in 2021 under prime minister Modi to reflect Indian national unity and extending from the new War Memorial to the new Parliament Building along a new path that honors a new nation built on the remains of the old. In the context of 2047 the British period begins to appear a mere interruption from 1850's to 1950's for a civilization that goes back to the Buddha at Sarnath and Kusinara about two thousand five hundred years back, forty generations back.

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The large 11 point margin for State Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a Democrat, shows the effect of the issues of women's rights to abortion and of democracy are having in the state. She promised to use the new 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court to nullify Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban and overturn the state's gerrymandered Republican friendly legislative maps. It also shows the changes in the midwestern states. In Chicago Brandon Johnson came from behind to win the Mayoral election calling for new taxes and a vast program of social programs, in addition to a community involvement effort to fight crime over a candidate that focussed on the crime issue and policing. Happening in the same week these two elections give president Biden  more confidence going into the 2024 campaign that people in the midwestern states understand Mr. Biden's approach of investing in people and infrastructure with higher taxes, and rebuilding American manufacturing and technology, protecting worker rights and incomes. ...

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The Bank of Japan started investing in stocks during the financial crisis of 2009. It has increased its investments in Japan's stock market during the pandemic as a way to boost spirits in the stock market to $400 billion as of Sept. 30, 2020.  Of this $56 billion is a gain in the stock market after Japan's stock market gained 60% from a deep low during the early period of the pandemic. In March Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doubled the ceiling for BOJ to $115 billion for purchases of exchange traded funds.

The purpose of this activity is to encourage risk taking in the broader economy, and ensure prices are rising at a small but steady pace. The BOJ now owns 6% of the total value of the Tokyo stock market. The BOJ does not buy individual funds but invests in the market through exchange traded funds. The BOJ purchases were effective in easing uncertainty and promoting confidence as the pandemic surged in Japan and in the rest of the world.

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Years of poor funding of public health departments in the US, Europe, and other countries have left public health departments lacking basics, lacking staff and resources. Here the WSJ shows how this has affected Alabama in the southern US. Alabama has the slowest vaccination program in the US with 10,000 doses given per 100,000 population. Positivity rate is very high at 29.1% for coronavirus, one of the highest for positive coronavirus tests in US in the past month of  Jan. 2021.

A large portion of the population of Alabama lives in rural areas. These rural areas are some of the worst hit in healthcare in the US. Since 2009 7 hospitals have closed in Alabama resulting from poverty of patient populations and population loss. This is part of the general erosion of rural healthcare infrastructure across the US in the last 20 years. A problem that now faces the Biden and future administrations. to tackle the problems of rural US communities.

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Mr. Newsom's win by a large margin in California's Governor recall election suggests a new approach might work for Democrats in pushing back on Republican challenges. This is to focus on the Covid 19 efforts of government and make Mr. Trump the issue to generate enthusiasm among Democrats. US president Biden says the Newsom victory is a result of voters supporting the approach taken by Democrats for response to the pandemic: "strong vaccine requirements, strong steps to reopen schools safely, and strong plans to distribute real medicines." The California governor recall election results are that 64% voted for Mr. Newsom, more than the 62% who first elected him governor, and close to the 63% who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 US presidential election. Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in California yet the results showed this new approach might work for Democrats- working at the grassroots level to build support and energize its voter base, and to follow its own action based approach to Covid 19. ...

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During the first term of the NDA government two programs were launched to restart the Indian economy- one was Make In India, and the other was Skill India.

This report in Indian Express looks at Skill India, its history and goals, and progress. 

For Skill India to meet its ambitious goals of training "a minimum of 300 million people by 2022" much remains to be done. The quality of training, the active participation of industry and manufacturing in the training, the setup of vocational training of high quality in schools, has to be the focus of new efforts. Lack of results in meeting the needs of unemployed young people, is also because of the lack of growth in the industrial sector. For this to happen getting rid of the problems of non-performing loans has to be speeded up, partly through recapitalization of banks, and partly through other methods. 

 

 

 

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The 525 seat Airbus A380 launched in 2007 is expected to reach the breakeven point in 2015. Higher deliveries of the A380 led to a 41% decline in net profit for the 3rd quarter 2014. Production improvements on the A380 increased operating income by 14%. This will enable Airbus to benefit from the fuel efficient long range A350, which completed a maiden flight in the 3rd quarter 2014, with the first deliveries by the end of the year. The A320 neo also will add to profitability, as it is sold out to 2020, according to UBS. The A380 will be profitable by 2020, with more investment needed to upgrade the engine's fuel efficiency to compete with Boeing's competing version, the 777X. The uncertainty is reflected in Airbus share price, declining 8% in 2014 and trading at 5.7 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, compared to Boeing's 8.7, according to FactSet.

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Matthew Tsien, a vice president in GM China, will be the new president in Jan. 1, succeeded Bob Socia. Tsien will report directly to Dan Akerson, CEO of GM. Tsien is currently vice president of planning and program management and has experience working wih GM's joint ventures. The direct report helps to provide direct contact at the highest level with CEO Akerson. GM China chairman is Tim Lee, who is also executive vice president of global manufacturing. China provides about 30% of GM's global vehicle sales. GM is taking a new look at its China operations as increasing competition is eroding its market share. VW sales in China increased by 18% to 2.35 million cars and SUV's, in comparison GM sales were up 11% to 2.31 million, for the first 9 months of 2013. GM's plans going forward are to invest $11 billion in China through 2016 for 4 new assembly plants. This will boost annual production to 5 million vehicles in China by 2016.

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Mexican president Lopez Obrador overhauled the way the Mexican government buys pharmaceutical supplies to avoid being overcharged by suppliers. This has led to some shortages.The government says this has led to significant savings. It says the government paid out 58% more for medicines and acquired 38% less in medical supplies under the previous arrangements. The Mexican government first handed purchases of all drugs to the Finance Ministry and then in mid 2020 to a UN agency, the UN Office for Project Services which will handle purchases till 2024. 

The UN agency says it secured 97% of the supplies but only 44% of the medicine has reached hospitals across Mexico, according to Insabi the agency set up by president Lobrador to provide access to medical care to people without social security. This is because of logistical problems.

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Criticism in China of president Xi Jinping mounts as the tariff war with the U.S. Trump administration escalates. The recent vote in the People's Congress abolishing term limits also comes under criticism.

Some of the criticism comes from the view that president Jinping adopted too high profile a role for China with the "Made in China 2025" and other policy that suggested China was trying to supplant the U.S. These critics suggest China should have adopted a low profile in such matters. Under previous administrations China preferred to act in a cooperative way. The issue about artificial islands in the South China Sea aggravated sensibilities of western nations without adding much to China's security, being another issue that disturbed U.S. relations with China.

 

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South Korean president Moon Jae-in sees his popularity drop from a high of 83% with the outreach efforts to North Korea, to 60% by July 2018 with concern about the economy. Presdent Moon-Jae-in made a campaign pledge for $9 minimum wage by 2020. Recently the minimum wage was increased by about 11% for 2019 after a 16% increase for 2018. Job growth slowed from 836,000 in first 6 months of 2018 compared to 2.15 million for the prior year.

Critics say the increase affects mom and pop small business and results in slower job growth. Youth unemployment is at 9%.

Moon's 83% approval rating is still unusual for South Korea. The opposition conservative party has only 14% approval rating and the previous democratically elected presidents left office with 30% approval.

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The German government's committee on the future of transport has proposals that call for fuel price hikes and electric vehicle quotas as Germany faces heavy European fines for not reducing transport emissions since 1990. This means the stretches of unlimited speed on the Autobahn roadways in Germany may now have speed limits. The proposals include limits of 80 mph on roadways and fuel tax rises from 2023, abolition of tax breaks for diesel cars, quotas for electric and hybrid cars that could get half of the emission cuts needed.

A series of diesel emissions cheating scandals have damaged confidence in diesel, and the lack of progress in climate change through less coal use has damaged confidence in Germany's climate change efforts. A new climate change law is planned.

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Delicate labor relations cause nervousness at Moodys and the rating is lowered for GM in Feb 2006, for a second time.

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Comments about immigration policy by Donald Trump, candidate for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, create uneasiness in Mexico. Trump says he would block the billions of dollars that illegal immigrants from Mexico in the U.S. send back to Mexico, and deport millions of Mexicans in the U.S. illegally back to Mexico.

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Continuing shortages at the fuel pump even after the 10% price increase at fuel pumps. Further price increases may be announced if crude oil prices keep rising. Sinopec gets subsidies for crude bought at international oil prices and sol at low government mandated prices. In 2005 and 2006 these subsidies total about $2 billion.

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Many of the young people joining terrorist groups come from Tunisia. A security expert tells DW.com that the radicalization of youth in Tunisia began with the overthrow of Ben Ali and his government in Tunisia at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali's regime detained many of the people in opposition groups, leading to the release from prisons during the revolution. The radicalization of Tunisia's youth began during this period, according to this report. The Benghazi attacks on American embassy from Libyans opposing Gaddafi who had crossed the border into Mali, also followed a similar pattern after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. In Libya many radicalized people in opposition groups were released from detention following Gaddafi's overthrow. The current democratically elected government of Tunisian president Beji Essebsi is monitoring the situation. This report describes the experience of some Tunisians in terrorist groups who were brought back home from other countries by their families. EU countries and the U.S. supported the Arab Spring but the aftermath was not well managed leading to further upheaval, and now terrorism. Some of this happened as the governments changed in the U.S. with Obama replacing Bush in the U.S. and Hollande replacing Sarkozy in France, and showing little interest in managing the aftermath or helping the new governments in Libya, Tunisia and other countries make a smooth transition with aid, security assistance, and maintaining the basic services provided by government. A well formulated and conducted effort from the West could have prevented the worst effects that are seen in 2014-2016. The costs to contain the crisis that has ensued are far greater than what would have been needed in material resources and expert assistance from the developed countries of Europe and the U.S.- without military involvement as there was a general sense of being lifted from years of dictatorship in Arab North Africa, and general sense of goodwill towards the West during the Arab Spring.   ...

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The Iraqi army moves against Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq after taking Raqqa from ISIS and Kirkuk from the Kurds. The fragile peace between the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Iraq broke down after the Kurdistan autonomous government held a referendum in all Kurdish controlled regions in Iraq, including parts taken from ISIS. The Kurds held the referendum for an independent state on Sept 25, 2017. This puts the U.S. in a difficult position as it supported the Kurds against ISIS, when the Iraqi army was disorganized in 2015-2016. Turkey also opposes the Kurds move for an independent state that could include parts of Turkey.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets U.S. president Donald Trump in June 2017. Trade with India, and the strategic relationship in Asia, will come up in the discussions. This report says the discussions could be sensitive on trade, immigration and climate change. The U.S. provided $2.38 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) to India in 2016, about 5.5% of the total, and 47% of the U.S. H1-B Visa program for skilled workers benefits Indian companies. The H1-B program will not be discussed, though climate change may come up. Defense collaboration, regional security, energy projects, are likely to be important topics, including transfer of high technology. 

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Japan's economy minister, Mr. Seko, says that with no-deal Brexit Britain will lose access to Japan's new economic partnership agreement with the European Union which last month created the world's largest free trade zone. Seko said 1000 Japanese companies have invested in the UK creating 150,000 jobs, because it served as "a gateway to the European market."

Nissan is scaling back its Sunderland factory. Sony and Panasonic are relocating their EU headquarters to Amsterdam. Honda will close its Swindon plant in 2021. Seko said "uncertainty for the consequences of Brexit is spreading in Japanese industry."