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In a complete reversal of the situation in 2012 when Spain's and Italy's bond yields reached about 8%, Spain's 10 year government bond yields declined to 2.579% on June 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. The ECB's efforts to fight deflation by injecting money into the financial system in 2014, and investor search for higher yields, is driving up the price of Spain's bonds and reducing yields below that of U.S. Treasurys for the first time. The period it took for this to happen- just 2 years!

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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Automobile parts imports into the U.S. have increased from $89 billion in 2008 to $138 billion in 2014, up from only $31.7 billion in 1990. In a huge shift in wages with increasing global competition wages at an American Axle plant in Michigan at $10 an hour are about what Target stores and Wal-mart pay for retail workers. An new generation of workers in manufacturing are seeing a shift from being in the middle class during their parents generation to lower class, with this downward pressure on wages as parts are manufactured in places such as Mexico and China.

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White House visitors database shows lobbyists have frequent access to the White House. On one January day, Jan. 17, 2012, lobbyists came with the CEO's of their companies to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue at 9 am for roundtable with President Obama. The CEO's are on the president's Jobs Concil. At 1 pm representatives from the meat industry arrive. And at 4 pm a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs comes for a meeting with Alan Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. Its a fairly routine day.

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Ford may be preparing for a bigger loss in 2008 than the $2.7 billion loss in 2007. Sales of the Expedition and Explorer and the F-150 truck have dropped significantly. These sales have dropped nearly 30% through May of this year over last year for Expedition and Explorer, and dropped 19% on the F-150 truck. One anlayst says Ford has $7-9 billion after all its other obligations as a cushion so the automaker is on thin ice. GM faces similar problems.

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A study and analysis in the One Earth journal for climate change action shows oil companies owe about $209 billion annually to pay for damage caused from climate change. The leading companies accounting for about 10% of global emissions are Gazprom and Saudi Aramco. These companies have benefited greatly from the oil price surge. The US and European oil majors who also have profited greatly from the oil price surge come next. Further distorting the effects of wars, financial crises since 2010, the war in Ukraine creates price surges from which oil companies benefit while the vast majority of people in the world are affected by a cost of living crisis made worse by higher energy prices. This is what is important to keep in mind as the US under president Biden prepares to play a leadership role in correcting these unneeded and bad distortions on how it affects the lives of workers and families in the US and Europe, as well as in Asia, Latin America, Africa. ...

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How are royals educated? Elizabeth Paton gives a glimpse of how girls from royal families are educated in Europe in 2023. Two are graduating from Atlantic College in a small castle on the southern Welsh coastline, with a focus on diversity, internationalism and peace. Students from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds go to the school which makes them more diverse than a typical Ivy League school in US or Europe which is a good thing. Princess Leonore of Spain shown here with her parents and princess Alexia of the Netherlands. Both girls just graduated at the age of 17. Princess Sofia of Spain is next to go to the college.  It is part of United World Colleges Group. In the modern age it is important for royals to have a deep awareness of their country's problems. Spain and Netherlands have had their convulsions, Spain in the Civil War and the role the two girls grandfather former King Carlos had in restoring democracy in Spain, Netherlands during occupation in the 1940's. ...

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The cushion of pandemic savings of US households is thinning About 35% of it is spent already and by the end of the year 65% of it will be spent, says this report in WSJ. American households accumulated $2.7 trillion by the end of 2021 in extra savings during lockdowns that restricted spending and with stimulus government aid. At the exact time when transfer payments by the US government to households stopped there was inflation lowering the purchasing power and this has resulted in some households increasing credit card balances, dipping into savings and cutting spending. This is what economists are seeing at the Fed as resistance to price increases. Estimates show the percentage of disposable income saved in the US doubling to 16% in 2020 from 8% in 2019 with lockdowns, then dropping to 3% in 2022 with extra spending, and up to 4.5% by the end of 2023. This will have the effect of putting up resistance to inflation and lowering the Fed's interest rate increases to cut inflation. ...

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Wages have gone up less in Europe than in the US. In the last 3 months of 2021 wages were up 1.2 % and inflation was up 4.7% for a fall in real wages of 3.1%, which has accelerated since then with the war in Ukraine and shortages of energy and food supplies. A YouGov poll shows that 15% of Germans cannot afford basic necessities and 53% are concerned about rising prices. Because basic things like food and energy where prices have gone up the most also take up large portions of the budget for lower income households. In Germany some unions are giving one off payments for energy bills and other costs to workers till negotiations lead to a settlement on increasing wages. The situation is similar in Greece, Italy and France. In Greece the government has given $3 billion for subsidies on gas and electric bills. Elections are now focusing on cost of living as in France where the second and third place winners in the first round Le Pen and Melenchon together took about half of the vote. ...

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Derek Blasberg gives this interview with Lauren Sanchez, partner of Jeff Bezos, and a helicopter pilot with an exuberant personality. She talks about her career in media with Barbara Walters and in LA morning shows on television. She took up flying and is now part of a team preparing for a trip into space in a team of five women. Both Bezos and Sanchez are from New Mexico and were born in the same hospital six years apart, says Sanchez. After a helicopter accident Bezos recovered and gained the confidence to fly again with the help of Sanchez. He is currently in the process of getting his own pilot's license. She is an exuberant and active parent who calls gatherings of her kids and Bezos's kids The Brady Bunch. Both are fervent about climate change prevention and plan $10 billion in donations to help climate change prevention. The interview suggests that people with personalities that are opposite one exuberant (Lauren Sanchez) and one introverted (Jeff Bezos) can find something that brings them together. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ shows a different view of the passage of the $280 billion semiconductor bill in the US Congress and the Biden Schumer negotiation for the $369 billion climate change and tax bill that was done at rapid pace in the span of 24 hours. It sees this from the view of the Republican party that hoped to present president Biden as a failure, unable to tackle inflation or achieve much for action on climate change, renewable energy, and building America's supply chain.  All this is happening quickly and shows the value of patience and persistence, and faith in the ultimate fairness of the American cause during a difficult time of war in Europe and rancor at home. It is not that 17 Republican Senators got played as the WSJ puts it, they voted for the $280 billion semiconductor bill on its merits and their ultimate faith in the fairness of the American cause and faith in America's workers and families, in its people. ...

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This WSJ report says IRS is working on collecting $10.7 bill in taxes from Amgen for the shift of $14 billion in profits to its Puerto Rican subsidiary. Puerto Rico is considered a foreign country for US tax purposes, and by locating profits there Amgen paid much lower taxes than most companies. In 2013 this was effective tax rate of 3.5%. Now this is coming into careful scrutiny from the US government as president Biden plans to generate revenues to pay for the shift to renewable energy to combat climate change with COP26 commitments by the US, and to reduce pharmaceutical cost inflation for the US public. This is the idea behind the $369 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, both a climate and a tax bill that is being passed in the US Congress.

This bill is the biggest climate change bill in history and yes it depends on revenues from fair taxation that has not happened till the Biden administration's resolute effort in this direction.

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Jagdeep Dhankar is elected vice president of India with 528 votes out of 725 votes from members of parliament. He is seen as an outstanding chair of the Rajya Sabha, India's Upper house of parliament, by Modi, Jaishankar, Goyal and others. He was an Advocate for the Supreme Court of India. He coms from a farming family in Rajasthan from the Jat community. He was a member of parliament and a member of the legislative assembly of Rajasthan. Dhankar was a minister of state for parliamentary affairs under prime minister Chandrasekhar. With his wide experience he goes back to the early days of the Janata Dal, the party that preceded the current BJP party. The president and vice presidential positions have now been filled with the best representatives of the tribal communities in India that make up about 110 million people in India, and a representative of farmers from the Jat farming community in the states of Rajasthan, western UP and Haryana.   ...

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India's 135 thermal power plants ahve just 4 days of coal stocks as of October 1, says the Financial Times, citing the power ministry. The power ministry has instructed plants to build up stocks. China is already facing a power shortage after coal fired plants were asked to cut down the use of coal to meet emissions targets. In early August coal fired plants in India had 13 days of stocks. With coal prices rising India did not buy enough coal to build up inventories. The manufacturing sector suffered a contraction in China for the first time since the pandemic started in 2020. China has instructed state owned energy companies to secure supplies of fossil fuel to prevent winter shortages. This further increased price of coal. Coal from Indonesia went up from $60 a ton in March to $200 a ton in September discouraging imports. The result is that with limited supplies and rising prices of coal India faces a perfect storm and power cutbacks as in China. ...

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OPEC and Russian oil producers are planning to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day for each month through 2022. Demand is increasing with economic recovery and this will lead to higher oil prices. Oil prices are now $80 a barrel in October 2021. Shortages of natural gas and high prices are leading power generation companies to use oil in place of natural gas. This will increase demand for oil by 500,000 barrels a day. Oil export revenue was cut in half to $119 billion for Saudi Arabia in 2020 and Saudis want to see higher prices to make up for lost revenue. OPEC + that includes Russia decided to end a price war during the Trump administration and this time have designed a strategy that will gradually push up prices. In recent years shale oil producers in the US quickly responded to higher prices of oil and increased production. After the pandemic in March 2020 American shale oil producers in 2021 are not increasing production. This gives OPEC+ better ability to set oil prices at higher levels. ...

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The UK is open to American proposals for a global minimum tax rate given that it includes a fairer split of the taxes from US tech companies. Discussions are taking place under the umbrella of the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. This is intended to prevent tax escape by large companies which choose the lowest tax jurisdictions that are set up just for that purpose. The result has been that Europe and the US have suffered from decades of underinvestment and neglect of essential infrastructure and weakened the health and education systems leaving essentials of quality of living underfunded in cities and towns across Europe and the US. The pandemic has brought the lesson home in many ways. The UK has already increased the corporate tax rate to 25% in March to help pay for pandemic related help packages. The US Biden administration has proposed a 28% tax rate, and Treasury Secretary Yellen has suggested 21% as the minimum corporate tax rate. ...

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China and Nepal differ on the exact height of Mount Everest. Nepal says is measurement shows it at 29029 feet or 8848 metres above sea level. China calculates it to be 8844.3 metres. Nepal uses as sea level the Bay of Bengal, China uses the Yellow Sea. It varies whether the rock base is used or the variable level of snow and ice at the top. There is more climbing activity on the Nepal side than the Chinese Tibetan side. The mountain is always moving even if it is minutely. Seismic activity has raised it 5 metres. Till 1840 Kanchenjunga was considered the highest till the British surveyed the mountain. In 1856 Andrew Waugh, Surveyor General of India stated that the peak 15 of Everest was 29002 feet or 8840 metres high. In 1865 the mountain was named after Sir Colonel George Everest a fellow surveyor in the British Army. In 1955 India declared the current height given by Nepal. The Chinese occupation of Tibet by 1956 made China a neighbor of Nepal and for Mount Everest. ...

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This Times leading article on UK government's coronavirus policy says it is inconsistent, and a muddled effort just as the third wave is accelerating. It asks the public to be cautious when going outside and still opens nightclubs with covid passports not required till the end of September. By August cases could reach 100,000 say experts so that the nightclub and bars reopening can only fuel the rise in cases. The British government must be aware that the Netherlands opened nightclubs and bars in June and this led to a sudden jump in cases with 40% of new cases coming from nightclubs.  The policy is undermining public confidence. It is doing this at the same time as it is asking people to self isolate for 10 days. The policy also does not require covid vaccination pass for all events and for shops and restaurants as is being done in France and in other countries on a regional basis as in Germany. 

 

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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France has renewable energy potential for wind farms that is similar to Britain with its long coastline. The Saint Nazaire wind farm with 80 turbines opens on the Atlantic coast with president Macron saying it is time to go twice as fast as other countries in Europe. France gets only 7% of its energy from wind compared to 22% for the UK, 23% for Germany and 44% for Denmark.  Saint Naziare wind farm took 10 years after protests from environmentalists, fishermen and other groups. France is looking at diversifying its energy capabilities so that it is not too dependent on nuclear energy. Macron says- "Our neighbors are going twice as fast. we have to get rid of the legal disputes and the delaying tactics."

Three wind farms will come on stream in months in Normandy and Brittany. A floating wind farm is proposed for the Mediterranean. Macron wants to see more nuclear reactors. He also says the key to better energy supply is diversification.

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This report in The Times shows how Africa is tackling malaria by using modern methods such as drones. Drones are used in Ghana to send medicine to remote parts of the country. The rollout of the world's first malaria vaccine is taking place in Malawi, Ghana and Kenya. The Glaxo developed vaccine requires 4 doses over 18 months. Gavi is a partnership that brings UNICEF and WHO in partnership with private companies to  buy vaccines in bulk and distribute them where it is not affordable. Gavi supported 66 million vaccines in 2018 for children, yet about 20 million children in Nigeria, Congo and other parts of Africa lacked routine immunizations in 2018. UPS and health service workers are joining in the effort for administering this vaccine correctly.  Software that tracks the taking of the vaccines by children is essential for success and this is being implemented with Ghanian authorites. This report shows how it is done in Dateng, Ghana, a town of 800 people 3 hour drive from Accra.  ...

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Coach Jitendra Singh who coached Hardik Pandya from his childhood days talks about the way Pandya has matured over the years since the Karan Johar chat show episode. Coach Jitendra Singh says Pandya told him- "Coach you won't hear any negative things about me after this." The death of his father who took his two boys to Baroda to prepare at a cricketing academy has affected Pandya.

In the recent IPL final Pandya showed his captaincy skills and his skills as an all rounder with 3 wickets for 17 runs including that of Butler of the Rajasthan Royals and 34 runs batting at a critical stage for a over 50 run partnership with Shubman Gill. Pandya is seen as very close to players and encouraging David Miller who took the Gujarat Titans to win the game with superb batting.

Here the Indian Express calls this a Kapil Dev moment for India as Kapil Dev is the only cricketer in Test history to have scored 5000 runs and taken 400 wickets.

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A whole series of efforts will come together to cut logistics cost for businesses from 14% to a small percentage. PM Modi says the policy aims to expedite last mile delivery to save time and money. Gati Shakti Plan will address some of the infrastructure gaps. "National Logistics Policy helps in making the support system modern," says Modi. The government is using technology to support logistics in new ways, Faceless assessment has started in customs and e-way bills and FASTag are bringing efficiency to the logistics sector. Drones are being used.  Sagarmala Project to connect ports and dedicated freight corridors is starting to improve logistics connectivity and systematic infrastructure development work. Modi said the world has accepted the production linked incentive scheme PLI announced by the government for boosting domestic manufacturing. Put together this puts India in a position to become one of the top three economies in the world from the situation today of being in the top five. ...

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This NHK documentary looks at the idea of "Cheap Japan" as wages and prices have stagnated for over three decades. Where the US has grown by 58% for wages over that period Japan has declined by 12%. Japanese companies wages offered even in Thailand and Malaysia, and for low wage products in factories of Vietnam and Bangladesh are cheap and uncompetitive. A Japanese apparel brand is shown looking for factories in Bangladesh that can make shirts at $1.65 to be sold in Japan at $6. Japan's wages and prices are now falling behind developing countries and a Japanese economist calls it "declining Japan." Foreign investment is key to reviving growth by attracting new talent, changing business thinking and style of managing that is more open to new ideas and expansion. It may be of interest to note that Chinese companies in Japan may be focused on electronics and advanced technologies than American private equity in Japan focused on hotels and health care simply to boost profits. ...

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Heather Stewart and Jessica Elgot ask if Johnson's Conservative party can deliver for Britain, can deliver for women, can deliver for climate change, can deliver for health, education and infrastructure, can deliver for workers dignity, can deliver for families and children, by looking at one of its leaders. He looks at the polished image of Rishi Sunak after his Stanford days. This Guardian report says Treasury insiders see this Tory leader with respect rather than warmth, with some saying that the smooth veneer or polished tech-bro image is hard to penetrate. In a separate piece Ian Jack looks at Jacob Rees-Mogg in The Guardian in January 2022. This comes as Johnson's leadership is challenged because of Christmas partying at a time when the Queen was alone in Westminster Abbey mourning for Prince Philip to follow Covid-19 protocol. What kind of leadership Britain needs for the future after the pandemic is the question put forward by these writers in The Guardian. ...