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Infratest Dimap polling institute is commissioned by DW.com to find out what Germans think of the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel one year later. In summer 2015 Merkel said on Aug 31, "We can do it." Costs related to the refugees are about $17 billion, do Germans think services are overstretched for education, healthcare housing and other services. On the other side German society is aging and for every 100 unemployed people there are 200 open positions for skilled personnel. But the refugees who are accepted do not have the skills required and have to acquire the skills or given training and education. On this issue DW.com asked the question whether it will strengthen the German economy. About 51% agree and 45% disagree on this question, and about the same number agree and disagree on the question that Germany will be overstretched providing the services for housing, education, healthcare and other services. The higher educated and young are more favorable to accepting refugees, with those over 50 and basic schooling unfavorable. On the AfD side most people are unfavorable, and in the Greens party most are favorable. On terrorist incidents probability, over 58% think this is more likely, 38% disagree. On the question of whether this will make Germany more diverse 56% agree, 40% disagree. Overall the situation appears to be balanced, with a range of views expressed, and the positive and negative sentiment "evenly balanced", says DW.com.  ...

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Tsai Ing-Wen is elected president of Taiwan by a landslide in the Jan. 2016 election. Tsai, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for the Koumintang candidate Eric Chu. The DPP won 68 seats out of 113 in Taiwan's parliament. Tsai told a news conference about Taiwan- China relations - "I also want to emphasize that both sides have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction that are based on dignity and reciprocity."

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Micky Hammon sponsored Alabama's HB 56, Alabama Taxpayer and Citizenship Protection Act, which passed in the legislature in 2011. The illegal immigrants it was said would follow "self-deportation" as the law would require frequent checks by police, and make renting a house or giving a job to an illegal immigrant a crime. The policy would be followed in schools also. At the time Donald Trump is cited by the Washington Post's David Weigel as telling reporter Kessler that the policy was "crazy," and "maniacal."

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This Journal editorial points to the low labor participation rate of 63.2% in the U.S. as indication of the high unemployment in September 2013. About 90.6 million men and women over the age of 16 are not working, compared to total employment of 144.3 million, based on Labor Department statistics. Factors contributing to this are the six million baby boomers turning 65 since 2008, more young people staying in school in a poor job market, easier access to government support benefits such as unemployment insurance, disability.

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Aaron Back says Sony is paying serious attention to the profitability of its Playstation business. He cites IHS estimates of Playstation 4 costing $381 to make and the retail price set for $399, in contrast to the Playstation 3 which cost Sony $100 more to make than the retail price. Sony's Playstation business is expected to post operating loss of 27 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2014, with profits of 37 billion yen the following year, and 65 billion in the year following that.

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James Stewart of the NYT describes the remarkable turnaround at Best Buy executed by Hubert Joly, a graduate of the French Etudes de Politiques in Paris and former CEO of Swedish hotel and travel company Carlson. He did this by carefully analyzing the areas where Best Buy was falling short and not delivering for customers a winning proposition. Statistics showed Best Buy had fallen behind on price. One survey showed only 23% of respondents found Best Buy prices were lowest, compared to 71% for Wal-Mart, 56% for Amazon, and 38% for Target. That Wal-Mart and Target are able to hold their own- in the case of Target with 38% along with some other advantages of customer targeting- against showrooming and internet retailers such as Amazon, and the 56% for Amazon which showed Amazon was itself not a price leader, gave Jolly insights into the strategy to pursue. Jolly took out costs elsewhere and made Best Buy the place where the shopper would get the lowest price and much more in terms of convenience, service and advice. The strategy has worked but Jolly is not complacent saying that in this business your success is only as good as your last call. Best Buy's stock is up 240% and is one of the best three stocks of 2013....

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On October 30, Sheila Bair heading the FDIC, the main advocate for reducing foreclosures by reducing the mortgage payments is in discussions with Treasury officials for a plan whose details are still being worked out. A key part of it is for the government to assume half of the losses on home loans that are incurred if mortgage companies agree to lower monthly payments for at least 5 years. The cost to the government is about $50 billion that would come from the $700 billion bailout fund. Right now loan companies are reluctant to reduce monthly payments because homeowners might defaul again or the owners of mortgage securities might file law suits. The funds would go to shoulder half of any future losses on default. For example if under a loan modification program 40% redefault and losses on loans are 55%, and $500 billion in loans are modified under the program, the total losses government would bear are $55 billion. This scenario is possible in a deep and prolonged housing and economic slump. This would be a gradual program if mortgage companies or companies with home loans or servicers of loans have to decide if they want to take advantage of this program, and time is critical as the foreclosures are accelerating and thisputs downward pressure on prices....

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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Francois Hollande leads in public opinion polls for the second round of voting in France's presidential election by 56% to Sarkozy's 44% in February 2012. Sarkozy has closed the gap for the first round of voting. Sarkozy' popularity has suffered from being president at the time of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the current eurozone crisis, and for his aggressive style. Hollande has been consistently underestimated in France with a nice guy image, but has proven to be a persistent campaigner and effective voice for the Socialist party in the current economic crisis.

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Prof. Admati, of Stanford, says that with the March 2012 stress tests the Fed has prematurely announced the banks are healthy. Prof. Cole of DePaul University, questions some of the assumptions used by the Fed as too optimistic even though it used a 13% unemployment rate and decline in stock and real estate values by 21%. He says the loss of $56 billon on home equity lines of credit and second lien mortgages, 13% of the portfolio, is highly underestimated. He says the legal liabilities of banks are also underestimated.

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Crude from Canada's Alberta oil sands brings about $65, a large discount from the $115 for Brent crude and the $97 price in the U.S. The increase in U.S. oil output is causing a surplus in the U.S., reducing demand for Canadian crude. The lack of enough pipelines to bring this crude to the U.S. also affects prices. The $50 discount to Brent crude affects Canada's oil revenues and economic growth. Canada's central bank cut the growth rate forecast for 2013 to 2% from 2.3%. This is also likely to weaken Canada's currency.

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Deutsche Bank has lost two thirds of its share value and its leverage is extraordinarily high with total assets at 56 times tangible equity acccording to Morgan Stanley. Progress is being made but not enough say analysts, and raising capital now is better than waiting longer and doing that with a downward spiral in its shares. The loss announced January 14, 2009, of $ 4.8 billion euros for 4th quarter 2009, reflects a loss across all of the bank's businesses, and is a warning sign of the need to raise capital with greater urgency.

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The 2017 Budget presented by the Trump administration has a serious problem in that it assumes 3% growth, and 2% inflation, low interest rates, to generate $2.1 trillion in additional tax revenues over 10 years. Hilsenrath in the WSJ has questioned whether 3% growth is a safe assumption. Then the Trump 2017 budget resorts to double counting which analysts called egregious and wrong by using the unsupported $2.1 trillion in extra revenues to fill holes in the deficit. By doing this it comes up with debt to GDP ratio dropping from about 75% to 65%, whereas the Congressional Budget Office does the math and says it would jump from 75% to about 85%. Such a mistake is called the "most egregious accounting error" by Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury Secretary, from what he has seen over 40 years. The irony is that the budget is called "The New Foundation for American Greatness," because of the lack of a firm foundation in the numbers. Deep cuts in social programs makes the math riskier politically and socially.   ...

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Apple reports a slowdown in iPhone sales, with a less than 1 percent in increase in sales, for fiscal first quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, over the prior year quarter. Revenue is expected to decline by 11% for the quarter ending in March 2016, over the prior year, first such decline in 13 years. Analysts say Apple will have to reduce gross margins of about 40% to increase sales. Apple CFO Maestri says Apple increased prices in some markets because of the strong dollar. When the stronger dollar is excluded from results for the quarter ending Dec. 26, 2015, sales revenue increased by 8% over prior year quarter, according to Apple. As Apple slows down its shares financial performance is stalled at about $100. Apple tried to present a different picture now that China sales are slowing down- it said that users had "engaged" with 1 billion Apple devices whether iPhone, iPad, Mac, or Apple TV, in the last 90 days, by downloading an app, song or movie. These services geneated $5.5 billion in revenues for the quarter ending in December, a 15% increase over prior year quarter....

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Pakistan's GDP growth is expected to be 4% in 2012, an increase from 2% in 2011. Foreign exchange reserves are up to $18 billion. Repayments in 2015 to the IMF will be a quarter of the payment in 2012, says Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. Tax collections are up 24% for the first 9 months of the fiscal year 2012. Remittances from Pakistanis aborad are up 21% to $9.7 billion and exports up 5.5% over the $25 billion exports for 2011. In an WSJ op-ed, April 16, 2012, Michael Boskin,who helped negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement for the elder President Bush, says it is time for a free trade agreement between India and Pakistan. Shaikh says he expects to see trade with India up from the insignifcant levels of $2.7 billion in 2012 to $10 billion by 2015. Boskin sees the potential for trade at $50 billion based on trade models. This would help change the landscape in the South Asian region after decades of neglect, strife and conflicts and is long overdue to benefit the billion people on the subcontinent....

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Standard and Poor's changed its rating of U.S. Treasury securities from stable to negative. U.S. Treasury securites are still rated AAA. Moody's made no change in the rating. U.S gross debt as a percentage of GDP is 91.6%, with the comparable number for Germany at 80%, France 82%, Canada 84%, the UK at 77%, Japan 221%. The U.S. budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is 10.6%, the comparable number for Germany is 3.3%, France 7%, Canada 5.5%, the UK 10.4%. John Chambers, the head of the sovereign ratings committee at Standard & Poor's stated that "the sign of political gridlock was a key determinant in our outlook change." The budget deficit will go up to $1.5-$1.65 trillion, or over 10% of America's GDP in 2011. The gross debt for the U.S. is at $14.219 trillion, just short of the $14.294 trillion cap. With rising entitlement costs and the interest on debt this is expected to go over the debt ceiling as early as July 8, 2011. Again political gridlock and the divide between Republicans and Democrats about deficit reduction is causing concern about the delay in raising the debt ceiling....

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Efforts to raise money by Eventbrite, a event ticketing internet startup in the U.S. Eventbrite raised $60 million from T. Rowe Price Group and Tiger Global Management in late stage financing. Private investments in late stage financing have accelerated in 2011-2013. In the 1st quarter of 2013 $2.2 billion was raised in late stage venture capital investments compared to $672 million raised through venture capital backed IPO's, according to figures put together by the National Venture Capital Association from Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Thomson Reuters. For 2012 late stage financing raised $8.6 billion compared to $21.5 billion in IPO's, including the $16 billion for Facebook IPO. Excluding the Facebook IPO, IPO's raised $5.5 billion, much less than the late stage financing. Investors who purchased Facebook Inc. privately just prior to the IPO, face paper losses at the current trading price in April 2013 of $25.73 per share, making investors wary of heavily hyped up IPO's. SurveyMonkey, a web survey company has raised $800 million from private equity and debt investments. The Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act lets startups remain private longer by allowing startups to have over 500 investors before having to disclose financial statements to the public....

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In the next 15 years approximately India will have a higher percentage of working age population to non-working age population than China, based on information from the UN and Morgan Stanley. The number of people over 64 and under 15 has declined from 69% to 56% in 2010, according to UN figures. By 2020 the working age population will increase by 136 million in India, compared to 23 million in China. From this it can be seen that a huge demographic change is playing out. As China's economy matures and with the one-child policy in place, China's working age population is expected to decline; just as India's working age population picks up. This should give India momentum in the next 15-20 years, and lead to an increasing growth rate in India, just as China's growth rate slows. India's weak areas are infrastructure, and education. Infrastructure development will accelerate nevertheless, with larger private investments and participation in projects; and India will move up the experience curve as more projects are completed. Education for the poorer classes and in public schools will remain a problem. Private schools are making up for the weakness in this area, and private schools now make up 20% of attendance even in the rural areas according to one estimate. The strong points are democratic structures and the rule of law, private enterprise and private companies, English speaking middle class, and smart initiatives by business to develop low cost products that are affordable for all segments of sciety in India. For instance a $35 laptop developed by the IIT and Indian Institute of Science researchers, and Tata Chemicals development of a filter for 30 rupees or 65 cents that would filter water for a month for a family of five. This will bring the benefits of development to all segments of society as development progresses, and is crucial for balanced development in the poorer parts of Asia. Tata Motors 1 lakh ruppees car concept and the Tata Nano as its tangible product, is another verson of this kind of development being pioneered in India. Being a democratic country makes some processes slower, yet at the same time the private initiative enabled by democratic processes -cultivated over a long period from British times -enables a creative sort of development that could be turned into a distinct advantage....

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Investment in fixed assets of urban areas in China declined from 8.3% to 5.5%, for the first seven months of 2018, according to the Bureau of Statistics. Investment provides a third of GDP growth. The trade dispute with the U.S. has added to concern about the slowing economy. Some analysts are calling for a non-confrontational approach in negotiations.

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One of the favorable factors for Iraq in recent years was the surge in oil production, adding 1 million barrels a day to reach 3.3 million barrels a day. It surged to an average of 3.7 million barrels a day in December 2014 after a deal with the Kurdish region in northern Iraq for an additional 550,000 barrels a day in exchange for Kurds getting a 17% share of federal revenues. This helped Iraq overcome other problems. The drop in oil prices has led to a 40% drop in revenues and the invasion by Islamic State in a loss of some production.The federal budget of $101 billion planned revenues is based on an oil price of $56 and exports of 3.3 million barrels a day, resulting in a $20 billion deficit. It assumes $10 billion in new tax revenues which may be hard to achieve with a lack of strong central government. Experts on Iraq's oil industry say large investments are needed to offset declining oil production from older oil fields in southern Iraq. Oil exports were 2.5 million barrels a day in 2014, and experts say even this will be hard to achieve for 2015. Investments could come from western oil companies, but Iraq and the Kurdistan region are behind in payments to oil companies. Iraq is considering issuing bonds for $10-$15 billion....

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The growing number of women in their 40's who are childless, one person homes, "child-free" adults, higher rates of divorce, are not limited just to Western Europe, the U.S. and Japan. This is spreading rapidly in lower income countries in the Arab world and Asia also. In Europe the progress is relentless. With divorce rates higher and fewer women marrying, the probability of a women of reproductive age getting married in Belgium is about 40%, and divorce at about 50%, according to Eurostat. So that the probability of women getting married and staying married is about 20%. This is true of other European countries also. There is a huge increase in "child-free' adults, men and women choosing voluntarily to not have children. The proportion of childless women in their 40's is highest in Berlin and Hamburg, nearly 33%, about 25% in Italy, and 20% in Sweden. One person homes are increasing in Western Europe, with about 32% in Europe and 45% in Denmark, not from aging alone as in Denmark as many as twice the number of one person homes are under age 65 than over 65. The UN population Division's "World Marraige Data 2012," shows that places like Morocco, Libya, and other parts of the Arab world are also experiencing these trends, with income and schooling levels much lower than in Europe and the U.S. These trends are now worldwide and affecting traditionally conservative societies like China....

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The general elections of 2015 show a nation divided, with Labor strong in the north of England and the Midlands, the conservatives in the south of England, the SNP in Scotland, and the UKIP competing for votes with Labor in the north of England. The election also raised questions about seats and representation in the voting system when SNP gained 56 seats with 1.5 million votes, half the votes cast for UKIP, and UKIP gaining only 1 seat. The Conservatives won a majority of the seats, 330 seats with a third of the popular votes. Voters distrusted both the Conservatives and the Labor party but distrusted Labor more, says Malik, and decided to stay with the Conservatives. Malik reminds readers that as late as 1992, Conservatives won a third of the popular vote in Scotland, and close to half of the votes till the 1950's. Now there is only one Conservative member of parliament from Scotland. Labor suffered a severe defeat in its base in Scotland with the SNP gaining 56 of 59 seats. Labor also lost the seat that was previously held by former prime minister Gordon Brown. On the EU the election promise of prime minister Cameron to hold a referendum on Britain staying in the EU in 2017, creates more uncertainty. David Cameron put the situation in the right words- " I want to reclaim the mantle that we should never have lost, the mantle of one nation, one United Kingdom....

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Merrill Lynch's Linenberg says the expectation of earnings for AMR is at $1.15 per share for 2006. JP Morgan's Baler's earnings per share estimate of $3.00 per share, and Standard and Poors stable outook for AMR Bonds substantially support evidence of turnaround in profits at American Airlines. American's business model factors in $65 per barrel oil.

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Brazil's Senate votes 55 to 22 to impeach president Dilma Rousseff for manipulating financial accounts to cover up a risky budget deficit. With the economy seeing a 3.8% GDP decline in 2015, and unemployment at 10.9%, Rousseff is affected by a stunning decline in popularity to about 10 percent. During the boom years the Workers Party of Rousseff under president Lula enjoyed soaring popularity, which now appears to be in retrospect a result of high commodity prices and subsidies, and not from careful management of the economy. The impeachment also follows corruption investigations of Petrobras with links to the government.