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The Des Moines Register Selzer polling track record for 2004-2024 is shown here for Iowa.  Over 20 years Des Moines Register and Selzer are shown to have a close understanding of this state in the heartland of America.

Over 20 years only in 2004 Bush vs Kerry when it polled for Kerry 5 points ahead and the result Bush up by less than 0.7 percentage point. In that one Bush worked hard into the last hours with support of evangelicals. In all over 20 years Des Moines Register got it close to the final result.

Between 1984 to 2004- Reagan was the last Republican to win in Iowa.

Popular three time Governor Tom Vilsack was Secretary of Agriculture under president Biden and the most respected member of his cabinet. Vilsack was given full support and funding by Biden for renewal of Rural and Agricultural America.

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Lee Kwan Yew reflects on life in his 87th year with his wife, 89 years, mute and bedridden. He keeps active with a regimen of cycling, swimming and massage and keeps up his schedule of meetings and work as he understands not doing this wold be to go downhill quickly. And also laughs at the futility of it all, as each year he has less energy than the last. His wife Kwa, has been a constant companion since their days as law students in London. He misses the comfort other people find in religion and prayer.

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Aaron Back says Sony is paying serious attention to the profitability of its Playstation business. He cites IHS estimates of Playstation 4 costing $381 to make and the retail price set for $399, in contrast to the Playstation 3 which cost Sony $100 more to make than the retail price. Sony's Playstation business is expected to post operating loss of 27 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2014, with profits of 37 billion yen the following year, and 65 billion in the year following that.

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Honda plans to move more of its manufacturing to the U.S. as the value of the yen drops below 80 to the dollar in 2011. Honda faces problems from parts shortages after floods in Thailand, and U.S. market share down 1.5 percentage points to 9% in 2011. Honda's profit declined by more than 50% for the third quarter of 2011. The yen trading at 77 to the dollar in Dec 2011 is making it impossible for Honda to make a profit from vehicles made in Japan and sold in the U.S. Honda plans to double the capacity of the Civic plant in Greensburg, Indiana, increase capacity at its other assembly plants. It will build a new plant in Celaya, Mexico, in 2014, to manufacture the Fit subcompact. This will raise North American production from 1.29 million vehicles to close to 2 million. About 200,000 to 300,000 of these vehicles will be exported to other international markets. Profits on small subcompacts are small, making manufacture of the Fit more economical in North America than in Japan. In 2011 Honda manufactured between 30-40% of vehicles in Japan, the new plans are to reduce this to 10-20% in the next 10 years, a major shift....

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More answers on more questions by readers, this time from the Guardian.

How does Britain get out of this mess- finding a deal acceptable to all, the Tories right wing, Labour party, and the EU, which isn't likely any time soon. Extending Article 50 beyond March 29, only adds a few months.

Is the UK going insane asked one reader. The answer from the Guardian- yes.

 

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This report on Venezuela in the NYT cites the IMF to say that the Venezuela currency is almost worthless today with hyperinflation of 1 million percent. An article in the Washington Post confirms this that the IMF first predicted 13,000 percent but now has corrected this to say yes, 1 million percent. Three million refugees are said to have left the country because of severe shortages, and another 5 million expected to leave in 2019.

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James McIntyre's book about Gordon Brown, (title is Power with a Purpose) who like Jimmy Carter, was more respected in retirement for doing good work humbly and not getting into a revenue generating speaker's circuit or consulting, or boards of directors of companies. McIntyre looks at his career, the involvement of Mandelson as Business Secretary, the failures of Mandelson and Blair in New Labour, and Gordon Brown's failure to revive the Labour Party. The Times says Gordon Brown has grown in stature since leaving No. 10 Downing Street. Under Blair, Brown was No.2 and headed the British Treasury as finance minister. He only became prime minister at the end of his career during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. He started the effort to redefine Labour Party after Margaret Thatcher defeated the Labour candidate from Plymouth Mr. Foot and swept out socialist Labour and the trade unions. Then followed privatization and changes in the British economy which were followed by Reagan in the US by 1980. Through this period Brown and Blair tried to create the concept of New Labour which won in landslides as Britain switched back to Labour as the alternative. As the Blair magic withered Brown was left tackling the 2009 financial crisis but failed to define what Labour was- his Business secretary was Peter Mandelson who unlike Brown was in Labour but in for his own purpose and had a cynical attitude to politics as a way to retire in some privileged business position on boards of directors. The result is well known Cameron and the conservatives who were even less qualified than an earlier generation of Conservative politicians, their decision to call the Brexit referendum, the verdict of yes on Brexit leading to Cameron's replacement by Boris Johnson, and Britain having 4 prime ministers in a span of five years as discredited austerity drive was replaced by Keir Starmer's Labour. This project with McSweeney as Starmer's campaign manager cleared Labour of socialist outlook Corbyn supporters, won in a landslide in 2024, only to fail to define the purpose for which Labour stood for and Starmer's ratings dropping to new lows of 18% support as Reform UK's Farage took up the issue of migrants and the culture that enabled migrants to enter the UK. Britain has been let down by two generations of less competent, poorly qualified for public service politicians over three decades since the 1990's- through Blair/Brown, Cameron, Boris Johnson and left struggling with Keir Starmer. Sixty years after decolonization of an Empire in the 1960's, Britain has not gained in purpose and strength, only drifting along as new powers emerge in Asia and the world changes. ...

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Britain's former prime minister David Cameron who said after resigning that he would continue as constituency Member of Parliament, says he will stop representing his constituency in the county of Oxfordshire. The decision comes early compared to previous prime ministers. Cameron says he does not want to continue because of the "risk of becoming a diversion." Critics say Cameron was reckless when he called for the referendum that led to the "yes" vote on Brexit with 52% support, leaving Theresa May with the daunting job of negotiating Brexit throughout the remainder of the term as prime minister.

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Toyota revised its profit forecast downward for the current fiscal year ending March 2012, by 54%. The revised forecast is for net profit of 180 billion yen ($2.32 billion), down 54% from a prior estimate made in August, and half the 408 billion yen earned the prior year. The strength of the yen has impacted the price competitiveness of Japanese exports. It has also affected the value of overseas profits on Japanese financial statements. Toyota makes half of its global production in Japan compared to a third for Honda and Nissan, leaving it more vulnerable to the value of the yen. Also affecting Toyota are the severe floods in Thailand which led to shortage of parts from component suppliers in Thailand. The new forecast uses an exchange rate of 77 yen to the dollar and 105 yen to the euro. That compares with the exchange rate for the prior fiscal year of 86 yen to the dollar and 113 yen to the euro.

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Antonia Romeo new UK Cabinet Secretary Feb 2026-  precocious yet "warm and forthright"  in civil service interactions active as Consul General and at Home Ministry. After Westminster school and Oxford University, and a stint working at Oliver Wyman in management consulting, she joined the civil service. Becoming permanent secretary at the Department for International Development and the MoJ, and spent time as consul general in New York. She spent time with immigration and boat migrant issues at the Home Ministry, and is now keenly aware of the issues facing Britain. That bit of precociousness is needed at this time to set out a plan of action and get results for Starmer and his team. Based on what Labour stands for building on the skills of everyone in Labour not just those who go by labels as centrists, left and right, false labels that ignore that common sense means something else entirely. Getting results means addressing tough issues for the economy, cost of living, housing, through honesty, resilience, hard work and dedication. ...

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This report in the WSJ shows Cubans lacking water for washing, sanitation, and having electricity blackouts or electricity for only 4 hours a day. Cuba lacks money to buy oil. The economy has long been shown to be frozen in the past without the technological change seen in other countries in the developing world. It shows the only model that works is one of good governance, access to US and European capital and technology for modernization, close relations with the US, building domestic knowledge base and engineers for  modernization, as sine qua non essental conditions in the Modern World since 1950. China and India tried under Mao and Nehru under socialist regimes but failed. The Monroe Doctrine is not for the US, it is an essential pre condition for countries in the western hemisphere on which the other essential conditions are laid to create modern societies. China and India with the essential conditions achieving modernization under Modi and Deng and his successors. It is true that Cuban dictator Batista's regime was a bad one in the 1950's, yet the answer is not to put in its place or as a reaction to this an idealistic version which like human nature is prone to corruption and decline, but build on sound and firm ground foundations tsuch as these essential conditions and sine qua non that stand the test of time and are good for the American continent. ...

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Idea that control over Straits of Hormuz is US goal is repudiated by DJT in his Address to the Nation, yet it finds its way into the media. There is no war for US to win, it is only about removing a nuclear and ballistic missile threat, nothing to do with oil. MAGA base, US public has rejected these wars in remote countries of the Middle East, when reindustrialization is the goal, not repeating the mistakes of Bush and Obama who by fighting these wars for 8 years in Iraq wasted resources and pursued policies that deindustrialized the Nation and weakened the heartland of America. Beyond limiting the threat of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles that could hit US, Europe and other nations there is no other goal. US and DJT repeatedly pointed out that being self sufficient it does not need Iranian or Iraqi or Saudi oil. The president even said in his Address that the US wanted to supply other countries with oil as it produced more than Saudi and Russia combined, and not counting Venezuelan oil production ramp up expected by 3-4 million barrels a day. Behind this is the known fact that China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits, so it is up to these nations and India and Britain to find solutions to Hormuz not the US. ...

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Parts of China's economy recover yet the risks from covid contagion increase with covid everywhere and few restrictions, says the WSJ.

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Republicans say they are for Family and Children and values that support marraige. Yet they oppose actions to reduce child poverty, paid maternity leave and women's rights that help protect women in marraiges, oppose action that would increase incomes for poor and middle class families in favor of the highest income groups. He says Biden took action that cut child poverty in half and faced resistance from Republicans. These are questions that don't go away as Democrats could do more for families and children yet Republicans aren't letting their actions match their words.

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Emma Raducanu injuries and recovery- after trainer Nakamura + disciplined workout, she is back.  Emma Raducanu serves for first set and is 5-1 in second set yet loses to Sabalenka at Wimbledon with fans elated to see Raducanu's performance.

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The Japanese stock market index Topix dropped 6.1 percent on August 2, 2024. What caused this is the Japanese yen going from 161 to the US dollar to 150. The strengthening of the yen comes as the markets sensed two things- one the US Fed considering a rate cut based on employment and inflation reports, and the Bank of Japan raising rates. The rate increase of the Bank of Japan leads to a shrinking of the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US. That gap had shifted money in Japan in the direction of US holdings. On Aug 5 the Nikkei 22 Index dropped 12.2 percent. It rebounded on August 6 by 11%. By August 7 the Nikkei 225 index was up another 1.2 percent. The situation can be summed up by saying that the Nikkei settled into a situation which recognized some strengthening of the yen to 151 to the US dollar. The fundamentals for the US and for Japan have not changed.

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For every 10 yen change in the exchange rate, profits of exporters are likely to increase by 7-10%, according to Goldman Sachs. This includes companies such as Toyota, Sharp, Panasonic, Sony and Asahi Group Holdings.

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Obe and Pfanner provide insights into the business sentiment about Abenomics in Toyota City, by interviewing Kawahara, owner of a kimono shop, Okuda of auto parts supplier Okuda Industry Co., Arai, president of Hotel Toyota Castle. Sentiment for Abenomics is not strong here after two quarters of economic contraction in 2014, and business sees problems such as higher import costs of imported energy with a weaker yen. Yet business people say there are no alternatives and the opposition DPJ has less to offer for renewing growth. Sentiment is shifting towards support for the LDP in Toyota City. Unemployment has dropped to 2.4% here in Toyota City with the huge improvement in global sales and profits of Toyota Motor. Nationally an Asahi newspaper poll shows the LDP taking 300 of 475 parliamentary seats in the snap election of Dec. 2014.

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Competing oligopolies or Competition? American capitalism in reality is a mix of both. Government's role in American economy shifting from higher in the Great Depression to low in Globalization and now back to supporting business to compete with China/India/Germany's Subsidized Capitalism. This WSJ piece that take a circle around the bases for a home run is in reality not a true reflection of America's management of it's economy over the last 200 years since 1825. There is a high degree of individualism, yes because it is a land that is forever expanding on sparsely populated Indian territory in the west starting under Jefferson and Washington at the Ohio/Pennsylvania frontier. By 1900 there is the emergence of the great corporations and monopolies, oligopolies with TR's busting of monopolies by 1920, and much of that structure is still there in 2025, with some obsolescence for changing technology. Oligopolies in information technologies simply absorb the small companies, and government is itself run by powerful lobbying as in the pharma industry to the sheer and alarming detriment of all Americans. ...

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Wagoner concedes effect of barrage of reporting on gas prices makes it very difficult to deal with as gas prices spike again. GM accepts need to develop a response to high gas prices.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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As this report in WSJ shows underreporting of coronavirus cases is a serious problem for Africa, and the figures from Africa's CDC, part of the African Union, do not show the magnitude of the problem. It shows that health workers in places from Yaounde in Cameroon to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, to cities in Somalia, are reporting a situation quite different from what the CDC shows, with hotspots emerging in some places with little in the way of resources.

Only 1 million tests have been done and half are in SOuth Africa and Ghana. WIthout the testing it is hard to know how many cases there are. Capetown area in South Africa is emerging as a hotspot and hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed within weeks. Officially Tanzania a country with 56 million has 509 cases and 21 deaths, yet this contrasts with reports from health experts. Cameroon and South Sudan are also possible emerging hotspots in addition to Tanzania says this report in WSJ.

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Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

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Increasing trade tensions as Japan, the US, and other countries struggle to maintain their export competitiveness. The issues surrounding the stronger yen, and the reluctance of China to revalue its currency.