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Wisdom and common sense made Michael Boskin to suggest that trade between India and Pakistan should increase in 2012. Boskin was the elder Bush's chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and helped setup the NAFTA, North American Free Trade Agreement. Boskin says in this WSJ article on April 15, 2012 that trade between India and Pakistan of $2.7 billion was only two thirds of the trade India had with much smaller Sri Lanka. In 2020 OEC data show it to be less than $300 million for trade between India and Pakistan,  and in the Pakistan floods year of 2022 with a third of the country below water the smooth flow of goods and products over borders never made more sense. Boskin said in the WSJ in 2012 that normally bilateral trade follows the "gravity model" of being proportional to the countries GDP and inversely proportional to the distance between them. He then cites estimates of Amrita Batra of Nehru University and Mohsin Khan of the Petersen Institute that show bilateral trade should be 20 times the $2.7 billion in 2012. This would be $50 billion in 2012 ten years ago. In 2020 this would be over $100 billion, not one three hundredth of that at $300 million in 2020 an alarmingly low level of trade between neighboring countries.   ...

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The U.S. Labor Department reports 204,000 nonfarm jobs were created in October 2013. Upward revisions of prior months lead to a level of about 202,000 jobs created in the three months July to October 2013. The unemployment rate goes up from 7.2% to 7.3% in the household survey, with furloughed government employees counted after the temporary government shutdown. The negative part of the picture is that 720,000 persons dropped out of the labor force, a high and puzzling number, and the labor participation rate drops to a 35 year low of 62.8%. This has been a problem since the 2008 crisis as more discouraged workers drop out of the work force, go to school or stay home and care for children, and increasing numbers retire. Some economists now see the Fed waiting till the unemployment rate drops to 6% before withdrawing from the bond buying program in place of the earlier announced 6.5%.

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Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, agrees with Paul Krugman's point made in a recent NYT op-ed column favoring staying on the course the Bernanke Fed has set, which is to continue its policy of monetary expansion as long as credit is tight and the economy is weak. The Fed has expanded monetary reserves Coy says by 114% over this year through May. The biggest increase since 1960 has been 16%. Coy says there is good reason for this. As other experts have pointed out, see links, most of the extra money the Fed has introduced into the economy has piled up in the reserves of banks. Consumers who who have debt at about 100% of USA GDP are not borrowing, businesses are not borrowing to invest, banks are not lending as before, and consumers are in a long period of debt reduction that will take years. This is why it is not inflationary. Consumer frugality, see links, is another factor that makes this situation a long term change in consumer behaviour, and a force for deflation. All this is happening in the background of a huge slack in the system as manufacturing capacity utilization is low at 68% and unemployment is increasing. Which is why informed experts looking at the situation on the ground see staying the course as the right action plan....

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Black Rock's collection of $10 trillion in passive assets or shares in firms that it manages for investors, including pension funds, brings with it voting rights for these shares. About 45% of investors have now expressed interest in doing the voting themselves. The voting provides Black Rock and other passive index tracking funds enormous leverage over thousands of American companies.

This voting rights power it can use to support Black Rock's stance on social issues. Recently Republican senators introduced a bill calling for individual investors in passive funds to have the option of voting their own shares instead of Black Rock or some passive index tracking fund doing it for them. 

Black Rock has responded with a voting choice platform that now has $520 billion of the $10 trillion it manages for investors.

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The Times looks at local elections in Britain this week, and a swing to the Labor party of 700 seats given Labor's 15 point lead over the Conservatives. This is a dry run for the general elections that Keir Starmer is preparing for, as Britain ripped by crises like the rest of Europe and the US, faces another once in a generation period to decide what kind of a society to create for the future. The blue wall refers to former Labor party supporting constituencies that voted for Boris Johnson in the mistaken assumption that the  Conservatives could deliver for British workers and families. A similar situation exists in the US as president Biden seeks to gain traditional Democratic states such as Pennsylvania and the midwestern states such as Wisconsin, southern states such as Georgia, and western states such as Arizona.

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The Mission LIFE launched by pm Modi in Gujarat in 2021 has achieved significant results-

"Under Mission Life our efforts are spread across many domains such as: Making local bodies environment-friendly, saving water, saving energy, reducing waste, and e-waste, adopting healthy lifestyles, adoption of natural farming, promotion of millets." 

"These efforts will save over 22 billion units of energy, save nine trillion litres of water, reduce waste by 375 million tons, recycle almost one million tons of e-waste, and generate around 170 million dollars of additional cost saving by 2030," he said.

"Further, it will help us reduce the wastage of 15 billion tons of food," Mr. Modi said, noting that the global primary crop production in 2020, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, was about nine billion tons.

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The German response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to increase its spending on defense to over 2% of GDP.  An emotional Scholz told an extraordinary session of the German parliament - We have to ask ourselves: "What capacities does Putin's Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?" "Putin wants to establish a Russian Empire... the question is... whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin," said Scholz. Scholz said he would immediately invest 100 billion euros or $113 billion in weaponry. Mr. Scholz also announced concrete arms procurements including the decision to buy state-of-the art drones from Israel and F-35 warplanes from the US, which he said would be used to amplify NATO's nuclear deterrent against Russia. 

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Four million elderly women live alone in Japan. For some like For Chikako Tanaka in Aichi prefecture in central Japan who is 85 years old, social isolation is a real problem. She had no pension and lived on her savings till the savings ran out, with no one to visit her as her dementia progressed. Chikako was an unlikely person to go to prison for shoplifting because she dresses with care and looks different, yet this was the only way out of social isolation. In prison for the first time in years her 85th birthday was celebrated. 

Physiotherapists help women prisoners over 70 years with rehabilitation, walking skills and balancing exercizes. Prison services help women to integrate back into society when they return, with service centers in each neighborhood when they return.  

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WSJ reports that there is considerable unease at making clients wealthier amid rising inequality and cost of living crisis in the US. Many financial planners who work for large banks with clients having over $3 million to $50 million are leaving as they do not find job satisfaction advising clients unless some of the money goes to help other people. Clients making less than a couple of million are more likely to help others in society than clients making $20 million who cannot grasp the problems of society from a third of fourth graders filing reading comprehension tests, the 40 million people on student loans, or people struggling to tackle the cost of living. 

About 35% of 330,000 financial planners/wealth managers in the US work with client assets under half a million, 19% with clients having assets under $2 million.  

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Britain heads into a general election July 4 with a deeply dissatisfied electorate. Labour is expected to get a majority after 15 years of failed rule by the conservative party with austerity policies, failure to invest in Britain and failure to improve the lives of working people. Astonishing as it may sound 58% of the British public now want to see Britain rejoin the European Union. Much of the support in blue collar working class communities in England for the Conservatives has faded and these voters have returned to support Labor. There is also a change in the mood in Scotland favoring Labor over Scottish Nationalist party. Unlike the US Britain under Tories has failed to invest in Britain's future in renewable energy, in climate change action and in infrastructure. Standard of living and support for the health system is declining.

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More than 600,00 people in Hong Kong are expected to use their colonial era British National Overseas (BNO) status to seek the pathway to citizenship offered by the British government. The advocacy group HKB Hongkongers in Britain surveyed the city's residents hoping to take advantage of the program that starts in January 2021. The Home Office had expected this to be about 500,000 over 3 years. About 80% of those surveyed want to emigrate in 2 years, faster than expected. About 75% of them have university degrees and earn well above the city's average, so that they can contribute to the British economy. About 75% plan to travel with children. Only half have friends in the UK and few have family there. Compared to the influx of migrants into Germany this is likely to bring a fresh infusion of talent into the UK economy at a time when Britain is embarking on building trade with countries around the world after leaving the European Union. Germany had language classes and many problems to integrate migrants from Africa. There is no language barrier and cultural issues are also for the most part absent. The technical skills of Hongkongers with BNO status could add to the British economy in many unanticipated ways.   ...

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India's second moon mission will land a rover on the lunar surface near the South pole on September 7. The mission includes an orbiter, a lander named Vikram, and a six wheeled rover named Pragyaan. The orbiter was launched on July 22, entering the moon's orbit a month later in tricky manoeuvres, followed by the lander being set off on September 2. The last 15 minutes of the mission, the landing itself on the lunar surface is critical to the mission. During this operation the speed has to be brought down quickly for a soft landing. 

India has accomplished this with low budget. Chandrayan 2 mission cost is about $150 million. 

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This WSJ editorial say the Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau's plan to keep corporate taxes at 15% to give Canada an advantage over the U.S., and efforts to moderate spending are an improvement over policies pursued under the administration of former Liberal Party premier Pierre Trudeau.

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Advertising revenues increased for Google, Facebook and Amazon in 2020 as these three companies took over 50% of total ad revenues in 2020. Large companies shifted more ad spending from television and print media to digital in the pandemic after finding the return on ad spending was increasing on digital. Smaller companies including the jump in startup companies increasing from 300,000 a month over the decade to 500,000 by July 2020, put all their ad dollars into digital. The result is that the pandemic has given the 3 digital companies a dominant role in the advertising economy. More time spent in front of computer screens, more ec-commerce, new business formation, and tech companies ability to steadily increase return on ad investment, has produced strong revenue generation. The pandemic had the effect of increasing retail purchases online from 10% to 16% in the second quarter of 2020. Biscuit maker Mondelez found that return on ad spending was 25% higher on digital compared to television and now spends about half of its $1.1 billion ad budget on digital. Trendy garment makers are seeing returns on ad spending that are high with quadrupling of sales following a doubling of ad budget for active apparel maker Vuori of California. Small advertisers such as Vuori are the reason digital ad spending has remained strong for Google, Facebook and Amazon. For furniture maker Steelcase in Michigan the return on ad spending on digital using Amazon made up for the lack of sales from its brick stores. It increased online staff from 2 to 25 and was able to bring in $30 in sales dollars from $1 in digital ad spending. ...

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British prime minister Theresa May makes a bid for working class votes in the 2017 election, just as the Labor party under Jeremy Corbyn announces its own manifesto seeking working class votes. May has proposed increasing the minimum wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020, and increased funding for the National Health Service by 8 billion pounds over 5 years. Corporate taxes will be reduced from 19 to 17% compared to Labor Party raising it to 26% under Corbyn's manifesto. Some of the Labor Party's supporters in the north of Britain are leaving the party because of dissatisfaction with Labor's leadership.

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The head of the European Centres for Disease Control ECDC, Dr. Andrea Ammon, says the Delta variant of the coronavirus will make up 70% of all cases in Europe by early August, and 90% of all cases by the end of August. ECD modeling shows that there is a risk of another wave like the one after last summer in Europe. The Delta variant is much more infectious than the UK Alpha variant and the UK variant much more infectious than the original variant. A 50% reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions such as allowing the staging of events would lead to an increase in infection in all age groups. Latest ECDC data show 34% of people in Europe fully vaccinated and 57% with one dose. One dose offers much less protection. Younger individuals have a lower vaccination rate and are vulnerable. Also vulnerable are the older people not vaccinated yet. About 40% of people over 60 are not yet vaccinated, and 30% of people over 80 years are not yet vaccinated in the European Union. As in the US vaccination varies by region within the EU. All these vulnerable groups can be affected in another wave of the coronavirus similar to after last summer when restrictions were removed. Dr. Ammon is a former advisor to the German government. She says it is important for young people who are not vaccinated to continue to follow the strict social distancing precautions.  This is not happening today as governments are relaxing mask mandates in Britain, France and Spain. Soccer games are coming back to fan filled stadiums increasing the risk. Tourist spots in Portugal and Greece are now looking similar to the vacation spots in Croatia that increased infections in Europe after summer 2020. ...

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Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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Eighth grades civics and history national test scores in the US hit new lows of 13% for history and 20% for civics meeting proficiency standards. The Test used was the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Reading scores are also low. About three decades of progress appear to be wiped out during the pandemic. A message for president Biden- the fight for the soul of America starts right here and this site Lyrarc.com has a knowledge role for this to happen.

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The Bernanke Fed's low interest rates are hurting seniors and savers who are earning very little on their savings. This is taking money away from millions of savers and reducing consumption spending by seniors and savers. According to the Labor Department average annual investment income for 24.6 million American households headed by seniors over the age of 65 was $2,564 in 2009. This is down significantly from prior years. A survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute shows that one in three retirees have had to dig deeper into their savings to cover basic necessities in 2010. With inflation at an annualized rate of 5.6% in the first quarter 2011, interest rates of 0.24% on savings accounts do little to cover inflation. There is a sense that this is hurting retirees who have lived prudently and worked hard and on savers of different ages. This actually discourages healthy savings that would protect Americans from job losses and build a safer future. American contributions to bank and 401 (k) accounts is only 4% of disposable income in 2010, according to the Fed. Another danger is that the smaller 401 (k) accounts of the average American family after losses in earlier stock market declines, will again be exposed to the fluctuations and risk in the stock market. This could happen as money is shifted to the stock market in the hope of earning better returns. Seniors are an active voting group, and voting patterns show a shift to Congressional candidates who question Fed policy....

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Britain lifts the lockdown quickly after the Business Secretary and the Finance Minister warn of possible loss of 3 million jobsin the hospitality sector if it remains closed over the summer. Much of the job gains in the U.S. in April came from surprise additions of jobs in the hospitality sector.

Britain will now relax planning controls to allow pubs, restuarants and cafes to open outside areas for business. Outdoor weddings will now be permitted, with indoor weddings of upto 10 people allowed by early July. Places of worship, churches, open June 15, as do non-essential shops. 

The R rate has risen slightly yet it remains between 0.7 and 0.9. 

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This article in the Wall Street Journal by Greg Ip shows what a case against Google and Facebook on antitrust charges would look like. He says Standard Oil and American Telephone and Telegraph had over 80% of their market. Ip points out that Google and Facebook's share is 89% and 95%. Here Ip shows that there are secondary effects beyond innovation by such Tech companies and Amazon which restrain competition and could be grounds for antitrust action. These companies favor their own products and skew their algorithms to promote them, making it difficult for newcomers. Also providing less access to venture capital that prefers not to invest in the newcomers that compete with the dominant tech companies.

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Laffer says that starting in September 2008, the Bernanke Fed has radically increased the monetary base, comprised of currency in circulation, member bank reserves held at the Fed, and vault cash, by almost $1 trillion. See graph. The percent increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the last 50 years by a factor of 10, he says, and its outside of anything we have ever experienced. The currency in circulation component which previously comprised 95% of the monetary base, has risen by a little less than 10% while bank reserves have increased 20 fold. With such large reserves banks are lending more money. The 12 month growth rate of M1 is now in the 15% range. But he sees reduced demand for money as confidence is restored in the banking system. He sees the drop in output and manufacturing and employment leading to further reduction in the demand for money. His view is that the reduced demand for money, and the rapid growth in the money supply, will lead to higher interest rates and inflation, unlike anything experienced in th 1970's. The backdrop to this is the huge liabilities taken on by the federal government in the auto and banking bailouts, and through the stimulus and other programs, with a deficit he projects at 13% of GDP. Steps the Fed could take such as issuing $1 trillion in new bonds to contract the monetary base, become difficult, considering that the Treasury plans issuance of $2 trillion in new bonds in the next 12 months. The alternative is to increase the reserve requirements of banks to restrain the growth in the money supply. A too rapid contraction of the money supply would cause the economy to go back into a recession. See Paul Krugman in the NYT, June 15, 2009, who cautions against reversing course. Krugman says the Fed increased reserve requirements in 1937, leading to putting the economy back into a slump. Krugman responds to Laffer by saying that the economy faces deflationary trends, and is in a liquidity trap where policymakers cannot cut interest rates further, making inflation less of a threat at this time. Krugman says overcrowding of private investment is not happening, as government is only stepping in where private investors have retreated....

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How much of the rise in price of oil is from speculators? About 20%. How much money is chasing oil? About $85 billion or thereabouts. What is causing the volatility, price shock atmosphere? Losses in production in Venezuela after a strike, Nigerian production in a backward region (issues of redistribution of wealth and periodic violence), and Iraq (Sunni insurgency). And now the Iran standoff with the USA over nuclear proliferation. According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm owned by IHS, Iraq is 900,000 barrels a day below its prewar output; Nigeria has shut 530,000 barrels a day; Venezuela is still 400,000 barrels below its prestrike production; and the Gulf of Mexico remains down by 330,000 barrels a day. In all, this amounts to more than two million barrels of disrupted oil, Cambridge Energy estimates. The impasse with Iran on nuclear proliferation is the latest factor in oil prices. One analyst says the hedge funds have come into this commodities market in a big way and are willing to take risks. Energy funds make up 5 percent of the global hedge fund business, with about $60 billion in assets, according to Peter C. Fusaro, principal at the Energy Hedge Fund Center, an online research community. The gains on the oil market have attracted a fresh class of investors: pension funds and mutual funds seeking to diversify their holdings. Their investments have been mostly channeled through a handful of commodity indexes, which have ballooned to $85 billion in a few years, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman's index holds more than $55 billion, three times the amount in 2002....