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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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German Heath Minister Karl Lauterbach says vaccine mandates are the only way out of this pandemic. Speaking to German daily Welt he said, gaining immunity through infection was a "dirty vaccination" that made little sense as it would not protect one against a more harmful variant. He saiid that it "would be naive to think that omicron is the end of the pandemic." Omicron would not make one immune to the next viral variant. "No one can guarantee that a variant will not develop soon that is much more dangerous."

Lauterbach says 25 million doses of the Moderna vaccine have been procured that would be enough for 50 million booster shots to be done in the first quarter of 2022.

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Trump was sitting next to Senate Majority Leader Pat Schumer for this event. This event the Al Smith Dinner requires a few humorous comments and jokes as a tradition. 

Contrast Harris in her video skit played at the Al Smith dinner and Clinton in 2016 making humor about her comment on workers as "basket of deplorables," changing it to "adorables" but not registering. There Harris brings back memories of her wearing a T shirt "Detroit vs Everybody," of how she was fighting for the revival of the industrial midwest by reindustrializing a deindustrialized manufacturing base and energizing workers, supporting the families of workers facing a cost of living crisis and caring for children and elderly parents. 

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Galston of the Brookings Institution says globalization has hurt workers in manufacturing with job losses and declining incomes. It has produced outcomes that have favored some industries such as tech, and not others such as automobiles which in the past helped create the broad middle class by offering good paying jobs to people with less than a college education. Immigration has created an issue that political leaders outside of the main parties have appealed to in France, the U.S. and Britain. The result is a polarization in the voters that has rarely been seen to this extent before. The middle class in the period from the 1950's to the 1980's is not the middle class that we see today in Europe and the U.S. The 2008 financial crisis added to the problems with the slow and uncertain recovery for some groups such as white men, the less educated, students, and people on minimum wage. 

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El-Erian points to the risks posed by the long term unemployed in the U.S. He cites the 43.9% of the unemployed or 5.5 millon people out of work for 27 weeks or more. In fact the U-6 measure for unemployment that includes the people who have quit looking for work and parttime workers is abetter indication of where things are. This was an estimated 11% in November 2011, according to Ed Luce in the Financial Times, cited by Klein in the Washington Post.

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The results of a Wall Street Journal analysis of 11 countries shows the risk of a stretched out period of stagnation in the economies of the USA, the UK and Japan. Jobs is a critical area in which this is apparent. In Japan employment is down 3.3% from December 2007, in the UK 2% lower, and in the USA 4.8% lower from December 2007. U.S. household debt is down from 131% in early 2008 to 122%, and poses a big burden. In the UK the household debt is larger than in the USA. And Japan's deficits are over 200% of GDP, creating an overhang that depresses jobs and growth. S. Korea, Taiwan and Australia have benefitted from the recovery since 2008 in China, India and the rest of Asia.

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BP will cut an additional 5000 jobs by mid 2009 with most of these cuts at places like its London headquarters. This is on top of about 9500 jobs that are part of a plan to sell gasoline stations in the USA. The refinery that had a fire in Texas will be back to production at full capacity by mid 2008. Profit excluding one-time items was $4.0 billion for 4rd quarter 2007, less than analysts expected because of declining production and smaller refining margins. BP sees oil at between $60 and $90 a barrel for 2008 and 2009, and plans to increase production to 4 million barrels a day in 2009 and 4.3 million barrels a day in 2012. New production will come from places like Canada, Oman and Libya. Spending for exploration will increase by $3 billion to $22 billion this year. Under Browne BP had stayed away from Canadian oil sands, but Hayward has formed a joint venture with Husky Energy to link a BP refinery in Ohio with Husky's Sunrise oil sands project in Alberta.

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BJP Modi election win in West Bengal and upset by TVK party in Tamilnadu states of India are a result of existing state governments not meeting the aspirations of young people in India for jobs, lack of progress in industrialization and lack of investment in infrastructure. These are the pressing priorities in India. Whoever can deliver on modernization and industrialization, jobs and infrastructure to meet the aspirations of the Indian people is likely to prevail. This is also no different than the process underway in the US and Europe for reindustrialization and remodernization, updating infrastructure built in the 19th century, jobs and incomes. The BJP party of prime minister Modi has set the bar high for modernization of the scale of China and Japan for India, and to even surpass them.  It is definitely doable, particularly now that India has built trade links for import of new technologies with the US and the EU, and when it is already an economy the size of Germany or Japan. Most of the Opposition parties cannot believe this is possible, and most of the media that covers India has the same views. As a result the titles and the discussion in the media are like that of 15 years back when India was led by parties that lacked the will and drive for industrialization and modernization, corruption and mismanagement dissipated resources, could not create the master plan and execution needed,  and lacked the leaders at the ministerial level to accomplish this to deliver on every promise. In fact the elections of the last 2 years have created a new northeastern India - changed the map completely with the growth in a region half the size of the European Union of 300 million people that is able to grow at 20% a year for 10 years in Bihar, West Bengal, and Orissa, Assam regions, where the mighty Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers flow into the seas from the Himalayas. There is that much potential and it means India itself can grow at rates of 10% once all the conditions are right in a few years to 2047 for Vikshit Bharat, Modernized India. The world economy can also grow with such a vibrant dynamic India. ...

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Youth unemployment and forced migration plays a major role in the Nepal general election. Rapper music Balendra Shah 35 years wins in parliamentary constituency over ex-PM Oli and wins the Nepal general election. He formed the RSP party to voice student protests against PM Oli's government and corruption, which was forced to resign. His goal is to generate 1.2 million jobs and double the per capital GDP from about $1500 to $3000. Nepal reflects the general jump in aspirations of youth across the Indian region. 800,000 young voters voted for the first time.

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S. Gurumurthy of the Hindu points out the dangers of economic growth without job creation in a country like India. He points out that demonetization- removal of high denomination currency notes- came at a critical time when the economic growth was not creating enough jobs. He points to the five year period till 2010 as having created 2.7 million jobs with 8.5% growth. Even though with lower growth of 5.4% in the period 1999-2004 the job growth was for 60 million jobs created. Had demonetization not happened he says, the economy could have seen the problems the U.S. faced in 2008 with a bubble developing in the real estate market. The fundamental shift of the economy to digitization of payments, increase in tax receipts brings more of the informal economy- with a size of 50% of the economy generating 128 million jobs ten times the formal sector - into the formal economy. A step that is key for India to see rapid growth in the decade ahead. The slackening of the economy for a year is part of  a needed long term plan, says Prof. Gurumurthy, visiting IIT faculty in Bombay, just as liberalization was in the 1990's.  Some errors were made in implementation and flow of credit to the informal economy, including by the RBI, yet the fundamental shift through demonetization served a good purpose. Gurumurthy says, sadly this is missing in the current politicized debate.  ...

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David Gelles of the NYT column Corner Office, talks to the head of Accenture, Julie Sweet, about creating an inclusive workplace and levelling the playing field for women. In this interview Julie Sweet talks openly about her upbringing in the small Orange County, California town of Tustin. Her mother graduated from college when Julie was in her freshman year. After several jobs to help her family she went to law school and joined a New York law firm. She tells Gelles about her experience at this law firm Cravath where there were very few women partners and about breaking down sobbing at a unconscious-bias training session at the firm when asked about her own experience as a woman. After being elected partner she set up the first woman's program leading up to bringing more women upto the point where today women are 25% of the partners. Accidently she takes a call from a recruiter 17 years later about a position as general counsel at Accenture. She accepts the offer and five years later she is made the CEO North America of this consulting company with 469,000 employees. Asked about what tactics are effective in creating a level playing field for women Julie Sweet says it comes from making it a business priority. Making diversity and women a priority with measurable goals. Set goals, have accountable leaders and measure progress, says Sweet. Accenture did a study and found stats that were shocking. 40% of companies have no plan for advancing leadership, and less than 40% look at attrition between men and women. A big disappointment but also a large opportunity here to get results by putting in place some basic things. In 2015 She set Accenture goals for 40% women, and sees 2020 goal at gender parity 50-50%. For a firm with hundreds of thousands of consultants worldwide what are the qualities she sees as important in hiring? Sweet says lots of different interests and curiosity for learning. Next comes being able to do straight talk with clients, to deliver tough messages as companies are constantly telling her they want to hear what they need to hear not what they want to hear. ...

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The strong U.S. job gains of 243,000, according to the Labor Department for January 2012, is a result of unusual factors and is not likely to last. Warmer than usual winter has permitted more construction activity and construction payrolls increased in Dec. and Jan. Another factor is that businesses are making up for labor requirements after the pause during the middle of 2011 from the tsunami and earthquake in Japan, and the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling crisis. The eurozone crisis, and weakness in housing will continue to affect the economy and hiring. The average for jobs created in the last 12 months was 163,000 each month. This rate of growth in jobs will reduce the unemployment rate in 2012, with fluctuations as an improved job market will bring more discouraged workers back looking for work.

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Krugman says there is cause for concern from May's U.S. jobs report of only 38,000 jobs added- low even with Verizon strike jobs added back in- compared to the 200,000 a month average since Jan 2013. One cannot read too much into one months report, yet the political uncertainty in a election year adds to the problem. The low interest rates near zero offering little possibility for rate cuts, make it difficult to come up with a policy response. Under a Clinton administration the infrastructure spending option would face Republican resistance.  It is not clear how a Trump administration would respond. Krugman says the jobs figure reflects a stronger dollar- a result partly of the Fed's plan to raise rates- that is hurting U.S. exports.

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"It may be that this iron curtain is small, unimportant and justified, but it is a bad sign." Howard Buffett took a stand in the House of Representatives against the VOA broadcasts being used inside the US in 1947.  Warren Buffett is the son of Congressman Howard Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska, who was on the Board of Education of Omaha, started a small stock brokerage firm, and ran for US Congress in 1942, reelected twice and in 1950. He also ran Howard Taft's Republican presidential campaign in 1952. Looking at Buffett in the FDR-Truman years- one sees a young Buffett in contrast to Warren Buffet's silence on the 2008 financial crisis, raising serious issues- about the Truman doctrine in 1947 on the floor of Congress, was Acheson falling dominoes analogy a dangerous one?  It worked in Turkey-Greece with $400 million in aid in 1947 but was Acheson/Truman using a dangerous analogy of dominoes that would later hurt the US in French colonial Indochina wars, and in the reference to protecting oil resources in Middle east in Iran, Iraq and Saudi to lead to wars that exist to this day in 2024? Wars DJT and Biden have both opposed in contrast to Reagan, Bush, and Obama. There is a huge contrast between the father Howard Buffett, descendent of Huguenot ancestors from 1600 New York, and the finance professional Warren Buffett who went to Columbia University in 1951-52 as student of Prof. Graham with 70 years in finance during which financial crises destabilized the US with Buffett not taking a stand. One hedge fund manager say it is pure nepotism to pass on the company Berkshire to Warren's son Howie. But he is not surprised- who else would be sure to keep the company headquarters in Omaha, keep things simple invested in index funds and much of it in a few companies leaving the investing to managers chosen by Warren, with Howie's job to make sure his father's principles remain. Howie is Warren Buffett's 70 year old son, who Buffett 90 years is setting up as his successor as chairman who will not do investing leaving it to managers, yet be able to change CEO's. Howie worked for a few years at See Candy, a Berkshire owned company before becoming corporate VP at ADM food producer, followed by working on his own farm in Decatur, Illinois which he enjoyed doing. At ADM Howie left after an anti trust investigation began, in which the company was charged with $100 antitrust fines for price fixing says the WSJ. What is Berkshire Hathaway? It is a trillion dollars of investment funds invested in a few companies under name Berkshire Hathaway, using some of the basic ideas of Benjamin Graham, a pioneer in careful investing, adopted by Warren. Where has Buffett put his money? Berkshire top ten investments are- about $90 billion in Apple, $70 billion split between Bank of America and American Express, $30 billion in Coca Cola, and $30 billion split between 2 oil companies Chevron and Occidental. He has not invested in pharmaceuticals or in renewable energy- in just a piece of America.This has generated a compound interest of about 14% over 3-5 years and about 12% over 10 years. He holds 30% of his investments in cash or fixed, mostly cash at this time. And holds the remaining 70% in stocks. ...

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There were 500 resumes for a $13 an hour position as administrative assistant at a truck driver training school. The school at trucking company C.R. England, is in Burns Harbor, Indiana. Stacey Ross the head of recruiting found 300 applications in her email box, there was astack of resumes from the fax machine. A total of 500 people had applied for the job posted on Careerbuilder.com. Ms Block who had been unemployed for four months and was aformer accounts receivables manager at a company in Portage, Indiana, gets the job after filling out the application on the company website. The company tries to hire fair to middling talent and train them from within.

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Rachel Feitzeig shows how one can incorporate a new fitness routine that energizes and is good for mental health into that tedious daily routine of work and kids. Doing it so it makes you feel good, moderate is ok, asking and getting the flexibility that you need is a good idea.