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A preliminary report shows the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2012.

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U.S. GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2013 was at an annualized pace of 2.5%.

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GDP per capita levels in the U.S. expected to return to pre recession levels in 2007 by the end of 2013. Gradual recovery in housing and consumer spending expected in 2013.

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U.S. unemployment declined to 7.7% in November 2012 from 7.9% the prior month, with 146,000 jobs created, according to the Labor Dept. The rate for the prior two months was revised downward by 49,000 jobs. The labor force dropped by 350,000 jobs, with fewer people looking for work, which suggests continued problems in finding jobs. The number of people saying they had a job fell by 122,000. The retail sector added 53,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality 23,000 and professional and business services 43,000.

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Malpass call sfor astrong dollar policy as the way to prosperity for the US, at atime when other countries are looking to promote domestic consumption for growth by having stong yen in the case of new Japanese policy and a stable but stronger yuan in the case of new Chinese policy. With high levels of debt is easier for the US government to let a weaker dollar reduce the size of its debt, but ith has other bad consequences in promoting jobs and growth in the domestic economy.

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IMF economist Oliver Blanchard, says the euro's depreciation vis-a-vis the dollar "would be a good thing." Because "in a way Europe needs it more than the U.S., and the U.S. could probably offset it in some way." The IMF forecast is for a 0.3% contraction in the eurozone in 2012 and growth at 0.7% in 2013. Blanchard says a drop in the euro exchange rate of 10% would normally boost growth in GDP by 1.4%.

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The Commerce Department reports the U.S. GDP contracted by 2.9% in the 1st quarter of 2014.

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The WSJ Dollar Index tracks the U.S. dollar's performance against 16 other currencies. It surged by 12% in 2014 with a strengthening U.S. dollar. The rise in the dollar is likely to adversely affect the 15% of U.S. GNP that comes from exports and the $200 billion plus tourism industry in the U.S.

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Seen in a larger context, the Biden tax pledge seen from the southern and midwestern and less well off states is not about taxes, it is about federal revenues that build the infrastructure and services in these states that increase the standard of living. This happened in the 1930's and 1940's under FDR and Truman, in the 1950's under Eisenhower, in the 1960's under Kennedy/LBJ. And is happening again under Biden today. Lets not forget that president John F. Kennedy says in his speeches that these regions in America in the 1860's under Lincoln were in development close to what prevailed in the 1960's in India, Ceylon, Chile, Turkey or China. The Biden pledge not to increase taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 is significant because it grasps the situation in America where extraordinary gains in wealth since 1980 have gone only some of it to the top 1-2% in midwestern states and southern states, and most of it to the top 3-5% in coastal states population in the east and west, New York and California, where the finance and tech industry are based. In Michigan and Wisconsin only 2% of households make more than $400,000, in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Florida 3%. WSJ shows a map of the US showing this for individual states. The core southern states have 2% of households with incomes over $400,000- including Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, with Mississippi less than 1%. It is only segregation in the late 1960's and culture issues such as abortion that have turned them from Democratic states to Republican states as they were the largest beneficiaries of taxes diverted into investment in these places since FDR/Truman and John Kennedy/LBJ. It was JFK who came up with the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats" when he opened federally funded projects in Arkansas. Seen objectively the large investments made under Lincoln, FDR/Truman, Kennedy/LBJ from tax revenues are what changed this region from conditions that prevailed in less developed countries that John Kennedy points out in his speeches, true for the midwest, parts of the west, and the southern states alike.  President Kennedy said on Feb. 25, 1963 to the American Bankers Association Symposium on Economic Growth: "Today, many Americans tend to think of developing underdeveloped countries in terms only of faraway nations. But in 1863, even measured by 1963 dollars, our own per capita income--and this should be a source of encouragement to many who are laboring with the problem of underdevelopment in far-off countries--our own per capita income was less than $1 a day, approximately the same as Chile's. Nearly 60 percent of our labor force was engaged in agriculture, the same percentage as is today engaged in the Philippines. An estimated 20 percent of our population was illiterate, the same percentage of the population of Ceylon. Only one-fifth of our 34 million people lived in towns or cities of over 5,000 in population, as is roughly true now of Turkey. In 1863, this Nation had fewer railroad tracks laid than India has today, and its children had a shorter life expectancy than a child born this year in Thailand or Zanzibar."   ...

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GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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Jean Claude Trichet is one of the last leaders from a generation that helped create the euro currency union and a pathway to closer union of European nations. For four decades he has worked at the upper echelons of European economic policy making. In accepting the Charlemagne prize he stayed true to his idea for closer integration in the European Union. He said- "Confronting the challenges of the future requires strengthening the institutions of economic union." He would like to see a finance ministry for the EU, saying that "in this union of tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, would it be too bold...to envisage a ministry of finance of the Union?" Such a ministry would exercize oversight over European nations economic policies and exercize veto power over national budgets. In the current crisis in Greece such a ministry could take actions and make decisions applicable to Greece. Trichet's remarks were delivered in Aachen, Germany. At the very same time finance ministry officials from 24 European countries were meeting in Vienna to come up with a solution to the Greece debt crisis. A main stumbling block is disagreement between Germany and others including the ECB, about how to make private-sector creditors share the burden of helping Greece avoid a default. Trichet and the European central bank and other central bankers have rejected Germany's insistence of an extension on the maturities of Greece's bonds, because they fear this would be perceived as a default by financial markets.This in turn would lead to contagion effects spreading to Spain and Italy, and a Europe wide crisis. In direct exchanges between Trichet and French president Sarkozy, Sarkozy has told Trichet he represents the bankers views whereas Sarkozy and Merkel have to take public opinion into account. In fact in past resolutions of financial crises in Latin America this type of extension of maturities for bonds has been applied, as for instance in the Brady Bonds and negotiated settlement arranged by the U.S. for banks, and Latin American and some Asian governments. Search term "brady" and see Landon Thomas's piece Nov. 30, 2010, in the NYT. This becomes necessary when countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal are unlikely to ever be able to repay the debt without a renegotiation of the original debt agreemments, spreading the debt over longer maturities, and private creditors taking some losses. By shifting the entire burden on austerity and spending cuts the current agreements leave the EU lurching from crisis to crisis as the underlying situation remains unresolved. It is here that Trichet's laudable vision of European unity runs aground because of the failure to build bridges between the outlook of the financial community and the public opinion of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other countries. The governments of creditor countries such as Germany seek a renegotiation for a restructuring of debt. The governments of Greece, Ireland and Portugal understand that severe austerity cuts alone with declining growth can never resolve the situation, and would welcome a restructuring especially because the cuts are deeply unpopular. The renegotiation has to be conducted with the full faith and credibility of the European governments, ECB and the support of the U.S. government, so that financial markets are given a certain reassurance that the situation will be managed to a successful conclusion, and not lead to contagion effects on Spain and Italy. When asked about this Nicholas Brady recently said this required "a unified decision." This would include money set aside for recapitalization of European banks that are affected by such a restructuring. In such a restructuring the German government and other European governments would still come up with taxpayer money for the resolution, yet the shared cost by all parties would create a fair and workable financial arrangement that has the potential for successful resolution to the sovereign debt crisis. This disconnect between the political leaders and the bankers is why observers say the Europeans have not been able to wrap their arms around this problem. ...

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Damian Paletta of the Washington Post says that credit goes to Gary Cohn a former Goldman Sachs president, and head of the president's National Economic Council for the way he has quietly built up a group of leading experts on major initiatives of the Trump administration such as tax reform, infrastructure plans. Compared to the infighting and other problems in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, Cohn is credited with building a core of ideas and experts that bring Trump more to the centre and with the prospect of winning Democratic party support. He has helped shift the president to set up a more balanced approach, less confrontational with China and not calling China a currency manipulator, getting support for the Export Import Bank, and more receptive to the Federal Reserve led by Janet Yellen. This report says an alliance of moderates is centering around Adviser Jared Kushner, Cohn, and in other reports Tillerson in foreign affairs is seen as being part of this group. On NAFTA the president has moved to a less confrontational approach with Mexico, which has helped the Mexican peso recover and improved prospects for the Mexican economy.  On infrastructure new ideas to find financing are needed and a plan to tax carbon emissions is intended to draw Democratic support as well as provide some of the funding. About $200 billion in taxpayer money and $800 billion from private investors is being discussed at the National Economic Council. This report says Cohn suffered from dyslexia in childhood, graduated from American University, and joined Goldman Sachs in an unconventional way. He shares a passion for deal making with president Trump, yet at the same time values the views of experts he has brought to formulate concrete plans for the way ahead. About 25 experts with extensive experience in government helped put together new tax changes, infrastructure plans, and international trade deal plans. His predecessor at the NEC, Gene Sperling, gives him credit for quietly pulling together the experts and doing the planning that the Trump administration now depends on. ...

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Anecdotal evidence such as huge jewelry sales in Hong Kong and smaller repatriation of funds earned overseas by Chinese companies suggests outflow of funds from China is picking up. Also the quarterly pace of accumulation in foreign exchange reserves dropped by 74% over the course of 2008. In he 4th quarter 2008 it reached $40.45 billion, lowest point since 2004. Chinese government may be slowing its purchase of Treasuries. And policy may be shifting away from letting the yuan to appreciate as export industries are hit hard by lower foreign demand.

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MacKinnon argues that (while correcting the trade imbalance by American consumers increasing savings over time and becoming frugal), the stable exchange rate for the yuan and the dollar helps global economic growth by making it possible for China to engage in fiscal stimulus beyond the half trillion dollars it plans for 2009. From the Chinese point of view anchoring the yuan to the dollar at a stable exchange rate help China's internal price level. After the inflation rate exploded to 20% in 1993-95, the fixed rate anchor helped China regain price stability. The China stimulus in his words is most effective with a stable exchange rate.

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Global imbalances in savings had alot to do with the current economic crisis, says Prof. Richard Portes of the London Business School, and president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. See graph that shows net cross border flows doubled from 1997 the year ogf the Asian financial crisis to 2008. By 2008 these cross border flows from Asia to the West reached 3% of global GDP. This says Portes was what was ultimately the cause of the crisis, as it enabled bankers to be reckless and mortgage lenders to be reckless with all the extra money in the American banking system.

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Galston says Hillary Clinton is right to say as she did at Roosevelt Island in her opening campaign speech, that "growth and fairness go together, for lasting prosperity, you can't have one without the other." Economic growth was at 4% for 5 of 8 years of the Clinton presidency, but in the 15 years since the economy has managed 3% only twice in the George Bush presidency, and fallen below 2.5% in the last 5 years. The high growth rate following World War II was a result of the increase in the workforce and productivity. The workforce increased by 2% annually between 1950 and 2000. Since then as female participation peaked and the baby boomers reached retirement age the workforce has increased by 0.7%, and is slowing to 0.5% annual growth for the next decade. Growth in productivity of 1.9% between 1991 and 2007, slowed to 0.4% after 2010. Galston tells the next president to go all out to increase the labor force- adopt family friendly policies similiar to Europe so more women can work, get more immigrants into the labor force, more elderly should be encouraged to work given the better health, reduce the college dropout rate to reduce incarceration and bring more young people into the labor force, get more people who qualify for disability but could work part time into the labor force, and emphasize the importance of increasing the labor force participation rate a policy being followed by the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen....

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The OECD sharply cut its eurozone growth forecast to 0.3% in 2012, well below the 2% growth forecast it put out in May 2011. The U.S. growth forecast was cut to 1.8% from the 3.1% predicted earlier. This has serious implications for the eurozone because it means the worsening of budget deficits in the eurozone, leading to more austerity measures and spending cuts, leading to a downward spiral as this affects growth. It also has implications for growth in the U.S., if the super-committee appointed by Congress mandates additional cuts in spending.