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Joe Nocera talks to experts like Simon Johnson at MIT. Johnson says that when he talks to other experts, after a two minute discussion, they say we should just nationalize the banks. Here Christopher Whalen, a veteran bank analyst, of Institutional Risk Analyst, and Joshua Rosner of research firm Graham-Fisher, say the same thing, with the phrases, lets get on with it or just do it. Says Simon Johnson, thats what we told emerging market countries, Thailand in 1997, or Russia in 1998, when he worked at the IMF. He says we told them to close down some of the banks, and take over the others, and inject government capital. He adds its the best practices, and its straightforward. So asks Nocera, is Geithner talking about the stress test banks will be subjected to, as first step preceding nationalization, more of a calculated approach to gradually introduce the idea of nationalization. But he isnt sure, as Geithner also told David Brooks of the NYT, that governments were not so good at managing banks. No one knows for sure. But says Nocera thats exactly what the government did to solve the S&L crisis. And the man who was former chairman of the FDIC, and helped run the program for the Resolution Trust Corporation, says the government did a pretty good job of it, taking over banks, replacing top managers and directors, and stripping out the bad assets and selling off the now healthy banks to private buyers. So can it be done again and will it be that hard? Yes, its been done before, and its not that hard say these experts. Every month that the administration and Geithner procrastinate puts the banks in a deeper hole, and will mean more layoffs and a worse crisis, even years taken to recover. What he has'nt mentioned is that even if after some procrastination the government gets around to doing it to clean up the mess, there is one added complication this time that is different than what happened with the S&L crisis or with the Swedish cleanup, or the Japanese cleanup after 2003, this time the global economy is caught up in the crisis which makes recovery that much tougher....

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This report in The Times gives an extraordinary look at the man who is prime minister Boris Johnson's key adviser, as chief executive, to get Brexit done or take Britain into a general election. Dominic Cummings, 47 years, was the key strategist for Leave in the first Brexit referendum. He is somewhat of an individual who breaks all conventions and relishes the prospect of doing so. The Times says he has thrown bombs at the establishment including Blair and Cameron for 20 years. He has contempt for the Cabinet Office, Downing Street, the Treasury, and in his view the officials have a misplaced confidence and are not competent. Mr. Cummings is played by Cumberbatch in British Television Channel 4's Brexit: The Uncivil War, which is how Britons know him. In his view one needs to dismantle the existing physical infrastructure of government as a reform priority, says The Times. He has his own reasons having had his confrontations with British ministry officials who repeatedly and often incorrectly cited EU regulations as obstruction for much of what Dominic Cummings wanted to do as Adviser to Michael Gove in the Education ministry. His early beginnings at University mentored by a professor who was a serious opponent of Britain joining the European Union also influenced Cummings.  ...

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Henninger points out what he sees as the problem Democrats in the White House have faced since the days of Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam in this WSJ editorial commentary. Under Warren, O'Malley, Clinton or Obama, he sees the response being the same- of lettting a crisis develop to the point where America faces the use of overwhelming power to not acting at all, with no action in between. More likely that the U.S. would find itself on the east side of New York at the UN if that were to happen, says Henninger.

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This picture of Boris Johnson and Iranian president Rouhani breaking into laughter during a conversation in New York is highly unusual. It breaks the tension existing when Iranian response to American sanctions comes up. Mr. Macron of France and Johnson of Britain were trying to bring Mr. Trump and Mr. Rouhani together for talks. Mr. Macron looks serious, Mr. Johnson casual considering the issues involved. The picture of Jacob Rees Moog with legs outstretched in parliament and taking a nap with the chaos around him on Brexit, looking  totally unaffected and nonchalant is similar. Mr. Moog is the head of the Johnson government's group in Britain's parliament.

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Poor performance by UK Tories leader Kemi Badenoch at PMQ Prime Ministers Questions in the British parliament, broadcast on C-SPAN every Sunday at 9.00 pm US EST, is leading to speculation among Tories that she may not be around after local elections. Robert Jenrick who contested the leadership election is around says skeptics. Tories have changed leaders from  Cameron to May, May to Johnson, to Truss, to Sunak, to Badenoch, and now Jenrick? That would be the seventh new Tory leader since David Cameron assumed office in 2010. Then followed Brexit and Covid pandemic, and Labour taking office with the British now favoring being part of the European Union, all coming in full circle through 7 prime ministers in 15 years. 

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NYT's Thomas Edsall does a great service to America by pulling together different views on the causes of the alienation of the rural population in the US from the Democratic party. The situation in Wisconsin with Ron Johnson winning in that state on the back of resentment of the rural population is shown. It all started say experts with the the so called Third Way that turned out not to exist of Tony Blair in Britain and Bill Clinton in the US that quietly accepted the Reagan view of the world and moved the Democratic party in a different and unknown direction. Obama made things worse by embracing Tech and tech companies into the Democratic party, and ignored the concerns of rural and agricultural parts of the US. The Obama period continued the Clinton policies of letting China takeover America's position in manufacturing, and allowing the offshoring of much of American industry to China. By not closing the chapter of America's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq president Obama lost many critical years. Mr. Biden now has the extraordinary challenge of not meekly accepting what has happened knowing that it is not in the spirit of the party of FDR and Truman, that the Democratic party will stand or fall with the common man, that it will take some time to recover from these missteps, that it is in the interests of America and the American people, and for what America stands for in the world. It is all embodied in what Carl Sandburg once wrote- "The People, Yes!" ...

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The rulings in Britain for "duty of care" protect a customer or worker from harm. The rule "to love your neighbor becomes in law "you must not injure your neighbor." This is the new idea that the British government is moving forward so that the internet as public space is protected for all who use it. It does not state how many fire extinguishers are to be installed in a public building. Britain's Health and Safety Act simply requires the owners to do all that is needed to protect the users and occupants from harm. Since 1945 this is the foundation for heath and safety laws in the U.S. and in the UK.  This is the principle that 2 researchers Mr. Perrin and Ms. Woods have come up to tackle the protection of the internet as public a space. Perrin is a civil servant and founder of Ofcom, the UK's version of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission regulator. Woods is a professor of internet law at Essex University. It is now part of the legislation proposed by Boris Johnson's government in The Queen's Speech outlining government priorities. A new regulator would have the power to require companies to protect users of public spaces (the internet) from online harms such as pornography, extreme content, cyber bullying. The 2017 suicide death of Molly Russell a British teenager made this a priority for the government. The French government is also proposing rules based on this principle. ...

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In paying respects to the those injured in the attack by a Afghan asylum seeker in Munich on Feb 13 2025 Vance said at the Munich Security conference -“No voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants.” It was a speech that raised serious questions about European politicians and parties excluding voices that warned about a decade of illegal migration which has taken Europe and also the US to the point that a fifth of the population is from outside the country. It is not that Northern Europe has adopted this approach. Denmark's Mette Frederiksen of the Socialist Party and before that Boris Johnson and now Keir Starmer parties on both the opposite Conservative and Labour sides have opposed human trafficking gangs and mass migration into their countries.  JD Vance said of Germany shutting down other voices on migration's ill effects on public safety and public services, on the cultural framework itself of their country, as pernicious. "Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters... There's no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don't." DJT calls the speech "brilliant" and "well received." “And I think it’s true, in Europe, they’re losing their wonderful right of freedom of speech. Europe has to be careful it has a big immigration problem.” ...

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Katy Balls of The Spectator looks at the stop Rishi Sunak, stop Liz Truss, Stop Penny Mordaunt groups forming in the Tory Party. Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, is the candidate for groups not favoring Sunak including Boris Johnson supporters who see his withdrawal of support for Johnson leading to Johnson's resignation. Mordaunt does not support Liz Truss and is expected to shift to Sunak if Liz and Sunak are in the final two. Penny Mordaunt is seen as having a good chance against Sunak if Penny and Sunak are the final two, yet her inexperience could also be a problem. Sunak had questions about his own tax payment and is opposed to cutting taxes, making it harder to get support across the party. 

This Tory leadership election in which 200,000 party members vote for a leader is taking place too quickly and too often. Johnson was elected in 2019, only three years later he is out. Before Johnson, Cameron was out and Theresa May was elected in 2016.

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Thre drug companies are placing bets on the vaccine business. Johnson and Johnson paid 302 million euros for 18% of Dutch biotech company Crucell NV, to jointly develop vaccines. Abbott Labs says it will acquire a unit of Belgian conglomerate Solvay SA for 4.5 billion euros in adeal that includes a vaccine business. And Merck obtained the marketing rights for a seasonal flu vaccine from Australia's CSL Ltd. This follows Pfizer's Wyeth acquisition. Low prices, high costs and fear of lawsuits made most drug makers to exit the business in the 1980's and 1990's. Now vaccine sales are growing faster than other prescription drugs and are largely protected from generic competition. And government agencies here in the USA and around the world are reliable buyers of vaccines as they seek to stockpile medicines that could be needed in aflu outbreak. Merck never exit the vaccine business and now makes 8 of 10 vaccines recommended for adults. Flu and other vaccines are especially attractive for entering drug markets in Brazil and China and developing countries. Governments lke the idea of lowcost prevention at $10 adose, and with this new relationships are developed in these countries. And even at price of $10 or $20 a dose they provide asteady stream of revenue.Vaccines are estimated to generate $21.5 billion in revenues by 2012 according to Sanofi-Aventis SA, which is a leading vaccine maker....

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David Obey, head of the House Appropriations Committee who wants to see a war surtax so that the burden of the war does not just rest on military families. Says Obey, who came to the House in 1969, the first year Nixon engaged in the Vietnam war- "I am damn tired of a situation in which only military families are asked to pay any price whatsoever for this war." He asked Obama to listen to the archival audiotapes of President Johnson in Bill Moyers PBS documentary on the Vietnam War in which Johnson tells Dick Russell Senator from Goergia-" Well we know this is damn near a fool's errand but we don't have any choice." Obey has no faith in the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan so he does not see any chance for a strategy to succeed in Afghnistan and he says "I didn't come here to be Richard Nixon's congressman, Reagan's congressman, Obama's congressman, I'm here representing the Seventh District of Wisconsin." To know Obey is to know him through the decades standing in Congress, fighting for spending on health, education and social programs, part of the agenda rooted in his Catholic faith, which he says demands that he try "to make this an equal society for everybody." In his spare time Obey plays the harmonica, with his rendition of "Amazing Grace" at a friend's funeral putting "everybody in tears," according to Governor James Doyle of Wisconsin. ...

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All the danger signs are flashing red says Prof. Simon Johnson of MIT's Sloan School of Management, as Citigroup stock loses 26% on November 20, 2008 and 50% of the stock's value in just 4 days. The fear is that Citigroup faces still bigger losses as home mortgages, credit card loans, commercial real estate debt all deteriorate further in a deep economic downturn, and that Citigroup will need large sums of additional capital from the government. There is similiar to the Detroit auto industry executives and public opinion a big gap in how Wall Street investors and Citigroup executives see the company's situation.

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With withdrawal of AC Milan, Inter Milan, Athletico Madrid and 6 Premier League Clubs, one of the originators of the plan for a Super League of soccer teams, Mr. Agnelli, thinks the plan cannot proceed. There is strong opposition from the Tory government in Britain to the plan, and soccer fans are critical of it.  Agnelli had clearly not thought of the fans response as the plans he had for a Super League remained a business concept and missed the fans who are what makes soccer what it is- a global sport with enormous enthusiasm of the people. AC Milan and Inter Milan in withdrawing cited fans and said we have to be sensitive to fan sentiment. Athletico Madrid referred to coach Simeone of Argentina, who said there had to be harmony between the fans and the club. Simeone said he backed fans saying "sporting merit has to be above any other criteria." The strongest response had come from Boris Johnson in Britain who within hours of learning about fan and public sentiment said there was no way this was going to happen. During this pandemic the sport of soccer has kept up a positive feeling for billions of people around the world who watch the sport on television. Why some of the best clubs failed to grasp the fan sentiment is hard to understand. ...

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This WSJ analysis shows that in the counties that flipped to Biden in the U.S. election about 40% of the people had white collar jobs and were better educated and in metropolitan regions. Of the counties that flipped to Trump about 20% had white collar jobs with only 1.4% jobs growth whereas the improvement in the counties that flipped to Biden had much higher jobs growth of 5.3%. Where Biden prevailed 70% of America's GDP is generated, where Trump prevailed 30% is generated. One is white collar in metropolitan regions, in cities and suburbs, better educated. The other is blue collar, less educated. One blue collar is hit hard by the pandemic, the other is white collar but also includes some of the people hardest hit in the pandemic of minorities in the cities and suburbs. In truth none can benefit without bringing all along. And loyalties shift as most of the professional class was once with Republicans who were the party of business. The sending out of American manufacturing to China has not only affected the economy, it has also changed the parties as the Republicans took up the cause of American manufacturing workers changing the two parties. For most of the twentieth century this was not the case as FDR, Truman and Kennedy-Johnson, were Democratic presidents supported by blue collar workers.   ...

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

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Simon Johnson, is Professor at MIT's Sloan School, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, co-founder of BaselineScenario.com a widely cited site on the global economy, and is a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisors. Here he talks to the WSJ's Deal Journal reporters. He says the stress test don't mean much because the government using a milder scenario, made the banks look better than they really are. He suggests a wait-and-see strategy, as banks have 1 month to file plans on how they will raise needed capital and 6 months to do it. He sees a steeper yield curve on Treasury debt as a result, with long term Treasury securities like 20 year Treasury notes yielding higher than short duration securities, which should stimulate long term lending. Expect banks to issue more bonds than stocks which dilute shareholders value, and as bond prices are low. Johnson sees real risks of inflation in 1-2 years, becaue of the way the government has inflated the economy, in a manner he says like the private sector bubble. Expect the government to cut back to prevent this from happening. He also sees pretty good earnings in the financial sector in the second quarter which should help stocks. The question remains about how sustainable all this will be, because he says " the government by oversubsidizing the financial sector will get us stuck in the same kind of financial bubble that got us into the mess in the first place." ...

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Cygnus is the rehearsal for a full blown pandemic that the British government conducted in 2016. After preparations accelerated following the SARS crisis in 2009 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2015, the British government accelerated its preparations for H2N2 the next pandemic. The exercize took place in October 2016 for 3 days, for a worst case scenario flu pandemic affecting 50% of the population and causing 400,000 extra deaths. For 3 days people were told to imagine being in the 7th week of the pandemic, facing peaks in demand for health and hospital care. Cobra meetings were to be held. This report in the Guardian gives details on the Cygnus exercize. It showed a lack of UK readiness.  By July 2016 prime minister Cameron was replaced by Theresa May in the Conservative Party and a full blown crisis emerged for Brexit. Britain lost interest in Cygnus or the pandemic prevention effort as Brexit consumed Britain's energies. Soon it was forgotten by the time Boris Johnson became prime minister and won the Brexit election. This shows how even a sincere effort and preparation over years of planning can result in nothing. This also happened in France. See France 24's coverage of this and our groups and links on this. One insight was that while every agency acted there was no coordinated response with someone in the central authority guiding the entire effort step by step. Care homes entirely privately run were also identified as a concern and anticipated significant pressures because of staff absenteeism at these social care centres in a pandemic, as reported in the Guardian ...

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Yousaf Humza comes from a family that immigrated from the Punjab state in Pakistan in the 1960's to Scotland. His grandfather worked at a Singer sewing machine factory in Clydesbank, and his father worked as an accountant. He studied for a Masters degree in Arts at Glasgow University and entered politics as a parliamentary assistant to Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon during the early days of the SNP. He held several ministerial positions before becoming First Minister. He is a Sturgeon loyalist who defeated challenger Elizabeth Forbes 52% to 48% in a close election for leadership of the SNP party.  His election is seen as a transitional period in the same way as Rishi Sunak's winning the leadership of the Conservative party after Boris Johnson like Nicola Sturgeon lost support. This is because of divisions within the SNP and in the Conservative party, and the rising popularity of Labour during a cost of living crisis after the ravages of the pandemic had affected working families in many ways. Both are from Punjab province of the British and the two provinces of Punjab in independent India and Pakistan. In fact the election of Humza as SNP leader and First Minister, the defeat of Elizabeth Forbes, provides Labour with an opportunity to win as many as 20 seats in Scotland for Keir Starmer of Labour to make it to No. 10 Downing Street, according to reports in The Times. ...

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Labour party leader Corbyn reflects on his years as leader, the 2019 election, his effort to get Britain to spend more money to fix social wrongs made worse through austerity programs of the last decade. He tells BBC's Laura Kuenssberg, that he was denounced in the election for advocating spending more money  than Britain could afford. He sees himself and Labor vindicated in its proposals for spending vast sums, to invest in the state, as this is what the Tories are now doing under Johnson. He sees Britain as ill-prepared for the coronavirus pandemic after ten years of austerity. The result of the Labour party election will be announced on April 4, a contest between Sir Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey, and Lisa Nandy. Mr. Corbyn is resigning after Labour's defeat in the 2019 election. He says the divisions over Brexit which led to a vote at Labour's conference to negotiate a new deal with EU and put it to another referendum, clearly did not win the election. Reflecting he says he did his best with an expanded level of membership for Labour party, and shifting the party to an interventionist economic policy that was anti-austerity investment led economy. He made his share of mistakes says Corbyn, as he was just human. And urged new Labour party leaders to spend time listening to people in all parts of the country, and recognize the strengths and good in the people.  ...

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Mr. Andrew Bailey, the top financial regulator, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, takes over as the next governor of the Bank of England. He has held several positions in the Bank of England including as head of a group that studied the global economy. He left in 2016 to head the FCA. The Bank of England last changed interest rates in August 2018, raising it to 0.75% from 0.5%. Uncertainties remain with Brexit even after the election victory of Boris Johnson because Brexit plans are to get it done including negotiations very quickly.  One change from before is that both the Bank of England and the government of Mr. Johnson are committed to keeping steady growth. The Bank supporting the economy and Mr. Johnson with plans to spend heavily on infrastructure, NHS and schools. It was this plan that helped Mr. Johnson win support across England. Previous Conservative governments reduced spending following the financial crisis of 2009 which happened under Labour administration of Mr. Brown following Mr. Blair. ...

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David Brooks looks at the traits and skills of national leaders Washington, Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, F.D.R., Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson and Reagan, and compares that with the skills needed in a business environment. He does not find much relevance for the traits and skills learned in business by Corzine, Rumsfeld, Regan, Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina in leading a state or a country. He finds traits in political leaders in government to be emotional security, political judgement, a sense of humility as being part of a larger purpose in God's world, and the ability to overcome major setbacks. He sees today's claims of candidates to being outsiders or having business experience as a spurious and false story line.

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This report in The Times shows that from April to October the Tory red wall seats in the north of England have been hit hard by the coronavirus, much harder than the south of England. The infection rates in October are about three or four times in the north of England. The second lockdown came earlier in the north, in Liverpool Greater Manchester and Yorkshire. The result is that instead of levelling up the great disparities in wealth and income that are seen between the south, London and the north of England the gap is widening under the impact of coronavirus. Deindustrialization in the north after their prominent role in Britain's industrial revolution was followed by the same type of decline seen in parts of the American midwestern states. Imports from China and globalization, hit these areas in a sort of second wave, just as America was hit first by the wave of Japanese imports, followed by an even bigger wave of imports from China and complete loss of manufacturing. With it the loss of well paying jobs for workers in manufacturing and the decline of industrial cities. Influx of cheap labor from other parts of the European Union also affected the north. The result is that the popularity of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives with 58% approval rating in April in the north of England is replaced by a rating of about 31% in October 2020. The 40 Tory MP's in the Northern Research Group expressed their serious concern to the prime minister. ...

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Rishi Sunak, Britain's finance minister, defends the increase in the corporate tax rate to 25%, saying the increased receipts from corporate tax in recent years were because of cyclical recovery of corporate profits which took a hit in the financial crisis. He says that the cuts in the rate by George Osborne, former Tory finance minister, have not led to increased business investment. Osborne cut taxes to 20% from 29%, lowest in G20 countries and Hammond who succeeded Osborne as finance minister cut the rate to 19%. At 25% the corporate tax will still be the lowest in the G7 countries. France, Japan and Germany have corporate tax rate of 30-31%. Higher taxes would help finance needs for government investment in infrastructure and health services, public services, and tackle the financial situation arising out of the pandemic support. The last time taxes were raised was in 1973. This also shows that the UK and the rest of the world is looking at the mixed results shown from cutting taxes. Business investment has not resulted from the business tax cuts in the way that would support creating job growth, some of the investment only supporting automation. The investment in infrastructure is lacking from the business sector leading to the need for government to use taxes for renewal in updating infrastructure. The rise of China with new infrastructure has only shown the problems with simply cutting taxes in the hope that job growth, economic growth, infrastructure growth would happen as hoped. This is why the Tories under Boris Johnson are trying a new approach to get the job done. ...