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Brexit is now seen as based on some mistaken ideas that were presented to the public without much thought or seriousness. One of these ideas is that Britain would simply be free to sign its own trade deals with other countries. One such deal would be with a 1.3 billion people rapidly expanding economy like India. Yet India - Britain trade is very small today and is vastly overshadowed by EU - India trade relations. In fact the European Union is India's largest trade partner. By removing non tariff barriers and tariffs India's economy would expand by 1.3 % annually adding $25 billion to India's GDP each year, Ifo research shows. The EU would see 0.14% growth in GDP, a gain of 21 billion euros annually. Germany would boost its automotive and machine tools industries, and India its textile and services industries.  Many British companies manufacture in India and are not exporters. This situation is not likely to suddenly change with Britain able to strike its own trade deals. ...

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Politics in Britain as Britain prepares for a general election. The UKIP party polls 13 percent and Conservatives 32 percent and only an alliance could beat the Liberals and Labour, Greens combined. So why is Boris Johnson not embracing UKIP and Farage. Boris Johnson top adviser Cummings is said to have kept Farage to a minimum in display during the EU elections, causing resentment. Farage has doubts about the Conservatives and has rejected an alliance. Conservatives see him as playing populist politics and having little interest in the Conservative Party's ideas, somewhat like a Salvini in Italy or Orban in Hungary. Conservatives see Farage as preventing them appealing to moderates.  Boris Johnson hopes to work out new spending to support working class voters in an effort to win broader support for the Conservatives. He also hopes he can go back to voters saying only he could deliver Brexit if given a solid mandate, in dealing with the EU and in dealing with parliament.   ...

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This report in the Economist after the Chequers meeting and the resignation of Boris Johnson and David Davis says this has improved May's position, yet there are dangers with the hardline Brexiters likely to continue their efforts to take Britain out of the EU. It says the Labor Party is hardly interested in what happens with the infighting in the Conservative Party, and the Labor Party would like to see the collapse of the May government with fresh elections later in 2018.

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Brexit Leave was only supported by a minority of Northern Ireland voters, only 44%. British prime minister May insists that the open borders established through the 1998 Good Friday Agreement will be maintained between Northern Ireland and Ireland. May met with Northern Ireland's leader, Martin McGuiness, following a meeting with Scotland's SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, to assure other parts of the UK that opposed "Leave" that their views will be respected. May says the union is very important to her, and says about the  border- "We had a common travel area between the UK and the Republic of Ireland many years before either country was a member of the European Union. Nobody wants to return to the borders of the past."

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Institute of Fiscal Studies, IFS, shows where the money is going in Labour's first Budget. See graphs of the household income over the 75 years under Conservative and Labour governments, which shows slower growth in household income over the next 5 years. Healthcsare and Education are growing at 4%. The growth of 6-10% is for local government spending, housing, communities and local government, work and pensions, Justice, HM Revenue. The slow rise in household incomes to 2030 is the result of trickle down economics which is sold vigorously by some groups as economic orthodoxy including the largest corporations paying little in taxes. This is true also of the US. FDR called it Tory policies and policies that say trickle down economics works when it doesn't. FDR said at DNC in 1932- "And we thought the Tories left in 1776." Today this is why UK household incomes show slight growth to 2030, and even this Labour Government is hesitant to boldly question this economic orthodoxy.  For Britain the debacle of Brexit turning some legitimate questions of immigration into isolation from economies of mainland Europe adds to the problem.     ...

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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About half of people in Britain in a recent poll taken during the second wave of coronavirus say they see a negative impact on mental health. Depression is affecting a fifth of the population in Britain. It has never been more important to be kind to each other and ourselves as the second wave hits a weary and fatigue stricken society.  People found many activities and hobbies to do during the 6 week lockdown period and there was an expectation that spring would bring better conditions. During the second wave of coronavirus there is a sense of a dreary period that goes on through Christmas. The uncertainty from the U.S. elections, Brexit in Britain, the reopening in countries such as India, the loss of jobs and income in countries that range from severe in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina to moderate in China, adds to the anxiety of daily life with surging cases. Creating what amounts to a low grade depressive effect during the second wave that needs to be addressed by the authorites, by health agencies, and in other ways, says this report in The Times. ...

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A humorous story on how Lady Hale delivered the unanimous decision of the UK Supreme Court against the prorogation of parliament by prime minister Boris Johnson, with a pun on the word pro-rogue-ation. And some ideas on how this was received by all sides. The decision was not popular in Britain and was seen by the royals and people around Queen Elizabeth as bad advice given to the Queen by the prime minister. Much of the behaviour of Boris Johnson and adviser Dominic Cummings is based on polls showing them winning over Labour seats in northern England that voted for Brexit in a general election to give the Conservatives a majority. Labour leader McDonnell has said that they have miscalculated. Labour party continues to emphasize that the real issue before the country is failing infrastructure, inequalities, lack of opportunity, jobs and the economy, not leaving the European Union. Labour's strategy is to wait out the general election for a couple of months so that voters can judge from the actions the competence of the Boris Johnson government to run the country for 5 years. ...

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The SPD continues to say it will not join in another grand coalition with the CDU after the FPD party pulls out of negotiations. A minority government has not been tested before in Germany and is unlikely with immigration and Brexit posing large challenges. A Jamaica coalition is being tried so called because of the colors in that country's flag, to include FDP and Greens. The SPD opinion is expressed by its deputy leader Schafer-Gumbel, who said :"the SPD is not the spare wheel for Mrs. Merkel's skidding car." For years the SPD played a secondary role in CDU governments under Merkel and eroded its worker base support in elections.

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Macron's unpopularity extends to a plan for new stained glass windows at Notre Dame. Strangely enough the unpopularity of Macron comes from an imperious perceived as arrogant attitude that was also the reason of the undoing of his predecessor Nicholas Sarkozy. Is there something about the concentration of power in the French presidential palace Elysee that leads to such behaviors.

This doesn't help France or Europe in 2025-2026 with France changing prime ministers every few months, just as Britain did in 2023-2034 this time with the Brexit ideas and attitudes of indifference even snubbing behaviors towards the European Union. 

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Eurozone data shows the GDP growth far outpaced the U.S.. In the first quarter GDP growth was 0.5% from the prior year, the annualized rate at 1.8% compared to 0.7% for the U.S.. European stocks are benefiting from the recovery in the eurozone. A global recovery in inflation is also helping, with political risk fading. Recovery is also taking place in parts of southern Europe, with 3% growth in Spain.

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This article in The Times says UK business has already moved to ESG, the idea that business is also about environment, social and governance, ahead of Thatcherite era cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel, Liz Truss and Dominic Raab. This was evident during the Tory conference in Manchester.  Boris Johnson is moving in line with voters and ahead of his ministers who are aware of the changes in the conservatives appeal to voters. Johnson is not attached to any preconceived idea of what the Tories are about. His only concern is to be where voters are and think like the voters, this is where he is happy being. Voters in Britain today think business is more than being about profits. New polling by the Social Market Foundation shows changing attitudes in the Conservative party and its supporters. In 2016 48% of Conservative voters thought it was important to remove regulations and rules for business. In 2021 this has fallen to 27%. Today economic fairness is a big concern. Inequality was a concern for 15% of Tory voters, today it is 28%, higher than Tories concern about removing regulations. Business leaders have also moved on after the Brexit referendum and see the need for meeting a social purpose. Some business leaders think the Thatcherite thinking of some cabinet ministers is "decades out of date." ...

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This report in the Times says there are divisions in 10 Downing Street, between Mark Sedwill, the top civil servant, and the prime minister, Boris Johnson on implementation of a coronavirus plan, Mr. Sunak the finance minister and Mr. Johnson on reopening of the economy and the spending plans. There are also frustrations among Tory MP's, women, and ministers, who are left out of the centralized decision making where only a few people around Mr. Johnson- Gove, Hancock, Sedwill, Sunak, Cummings - know what is going on.  Mr. Johnson has not rested well says the Times and Mr. Sedwill also had the virus it is reported. Mr. Hancock is not trusted by Tory MP's to execute the plan correctly for testing, tracing and isolation of clusters, crucial to controlling the pandemic and restoring confidence in the economy. Mr. Johnson also face the prospect of an inquiry into nursing homes- he responded to Keir Starmer of the Labor party in parliament that he"bitterly regrets" what happened there. More money is being poured to control this. There is a sentiment of acceptance that Brexit talks are going nowhere and Britain simply walks out with no deal.   ...

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Senator Tom Cotton says in this op-ed article in the NYT that president Obama's inaction in the face of a chemical attack by the Syrian government in 2013 badly damaged American credibility in the world. Failing to act to prevent the extension of the conflict to civilian areas in 2013,  had many adverse consequences- it showed the U.S. lacking the determination to prevent the use of chemical weapons, worsened the refugee crisis in Europe, created the conditions in which the pro Brexit camp could use immigration as a major issue, left the Turkish government without the support it had counted on from NATO allies and facing the brunt of the refugee crisis by itself as it took a downward course. The U.S. has long held the position of being a force that stands up for the basic rights of human beings, alone of all countries it has felt that it had to act when acts of this nature are committed. In this sense more was lost than just the credibility with other countries, in some ways the light shining on the hill could no longer be seen in the world, bringing on a sense that some dark cloud had settled in. ...

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Manufacturing output falls at the fastest pace in five years raising questions about the British economy. There was a 1.4% drop in manufacturing output in April 2018, and pressure on sterling.

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In a speech at the Conservative Party Fall conference British prime minister Theresa May positions her party as an advocate for the working class against establishment views. She was critical of smug views that the current situation was acceptable for working class families concerned about immigration and jobs. She also pointed out that the policies of central banks including the Bank of England hurt working class families and savers." She pointed out the development that has also happened in the U.S. economy and other European countries as the Federal Reserve and the ECB cut rates to near zero. "People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer." Her response she said would be to "put the government at the service of those who found themselves poorer as a result of monetary policy." This follows May's first speech at 10 Downing Street where she referred to "the burning injustice."  ...