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California's economy is going through tough times during the coronavirus. Unemployment is up to over 20% which compares to 14.7% for the U.S., closer to that of New York. The state depends on the tourism industry, agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley, and entertainment industry around Los Angeles for jobs. Tech in the San Jose area does not account for as many jobs. The state also has a public university system and foreign students mostly from China bringing in $7 billion.   Its port system around Long Beach and Los Angeles connects with the Asian economies and China, for goods mainly transported to the rest of the U.S.  All these sectors are the ones most badly hit during the coronavirus.  California now has a deficit of $54 billion and was the first state to borrow from the federal government to pay $13 billion in unemployment claims. Undocumented Californians are not able to collect unemployment because of their immigration status, creating an American version of the informal economy that is found in India and Italy or Spain. California has 83 million people taking plane trips to the state for a tourism industry that normally brings in $145 billion. 600,000 travel industry jobs were lost in the state. Taxes related to travel are a significant source of revenue for cities in California bringing in $12 billion. The only sector that is less affected is the tech industry, yet this makes up only about 10% of the jobs or 1.7 million higher paid but fewer jobs. This tech sector at about just 15% of the California economy GDP, is of a precarious nature with a boom bust pattern, the last boom one that happened since the 2009 financial crisis. It in no way forms a significant support for employment or income for people in California or the U.S., and may even be responsible for distortions in the allocation of capital away from infrastructure and public services, through its disproportionate influence on how the nation's capital is allocated. The broader changes underway during coronavirus are likely to affect the state over many years, as supply chains shift away from China, and as infrastructure and public services investment assume their rightful role again in the nation rebuilding effort, agriculture and rural America become a part of the American renewal story.   ...

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Declan Walsh's article published on May 19, 2013 in the NYT, was written and reported before his expulsion by the Interior Ministry of Pakistan. It surely must rank as an exceptional piece of journalism and possibly the best that has been done on Pakistan in the U.S. media for decades. Walsh focusses on the Pakistan Railways once part of the British Indian Railways which pulled together all of South Asia from Burma and the Afghan border to Ceylon, an engineering feat accomplished by the British which integrated India (and Pakistan) into nation states. He takes a cue from the India patriot Gokhale's advice to the the young Mohandas Gandhi to travel by rail to see India, its agricultural interior and small towns. Walsh rides the Awami Express from Peshawar near the Afghan border to Karachi, in Sindh province. Along the way the train passes Sukkur, crosses the Indus river, reaches Lahore in the Punjab province, and makes its way to Hyderabad in Sindh province near the Thar desert and India. Walsh stops at each point to talk with railway personnel, describes passengers, and the changing terrain. The strains on the society from extremist violence, the lack of investment in the railways, corruption, and railway ministry officials who diverted resources away from the railways, are described in detail, showing how conditions have deteriorated in the railways to this point. It also focusses attention on the need to modernize and rebuild Pakistan's railways. In China and in India railways play a huge role in the life of the common man, providing the major means of transportation and freight links for these large developing countries. By pulling freight business away from the railways and shifting it to businesses outside railways, a critical source of revenue was take away by a rail minister in the Musharraf government, which needs to be reversed. In the U.S., China and India rail freight business is a key part of the railway companies. There is a sense of despair in the railway people Walsh talks to, but his account also spells hope by bringing this to the attention of the outside world, to the public in the U.S. and Europe, even Japan, that what Pakistan needs is new investment, help with infrastructure. It sends a message to the new government to gird itself for the difficult tasks ahead to win the confidence of the people of Pakistan in a way that has not been done in the past. Falling behind is then both problem and opportunity in a modernizing world with new technologies that can transform the landscape....

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Steinhauser, Walker and Stevis provide an exceptionally good account of the events leading to the March 25, 2013 EU 10 billion euro bailout of Cyprus, with the closing of one bank and the downsizing of another bank. The Cyprus government of president Anastasiades bluffed and lost. That Anastasiades and the Cyprus government would do this in serious negotiations with the finance ministers of Netherlands, Germany, France, the EU, ECB and the IMF at the headquarters in Brussels, in negotiations that ran to midnight on Sunday March 24, 2013, is simply astounding. Charles Dallara representing European bankers tried to do this with German chancellor Merkel at EU headquarters in Brussels during negotiations on Oct. 27, 2011, on an earlier confrontation over bondholder haircuts, bluffed to the last minute and lost. The way Cyprus handled the negotiations surpassed that. Right down to the last hours the Cyprus president waffled- backtracking on earlier agreement to close Cyprus Popular Bank. Calls were made by German finance minister Schauble to Merkel and by French finance minister Muscovici to French president Hollande to give a joint Franco-German response. Finally Anastasiades was told to pack up and leave on Sunday, March 24. The Cyprus government was not defending small depositors as its earlier plan was to tax all deposits at the two largest Cypriot banks 6.875%. Merkel saw this as an error as this would hurt small savers. The final agreement shut down Cyprus Popular Bank but protected insured deposits under 100,000 euros. Another disturbing sign for the ECB and the EU was Cyprus allowing several hundred million dollars to be wired out of the country even though banks were closed and an offical freeze on ouflows existed. A serious mistake in negotiations was when Cyprus finance minister kept EU finance ministers, the IMF and the ECB officials in the dark by not returning calls for 16 hours on Thursday March 25, 2013, while he tried to negotiate a deal in Moscow with Russia's Putin. This destroyed Cyprus's credibility leading to the ECB's warning to cut off liquidity to Cypriot banks which would put the banks into instant bankruptcy. By Friday morning, March 22, 2013, Merkel was angrily briefing her CDU party lawmakers on the negotiations, telling them the Cyprus government and Anastasiades did not get it, that the whole Cyprus model of outsized offshore banking sector- catering mainly to Russian investors - had collapsed. Cyprus unlike any other member of the EU was trying to face down Europe. Negotiations with Greece had been tough and street protests everpresent, yet negotiations went on in a responsible manner and in good faith, something missing here....

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Fiat under Sergio Marchionne has come a long way since he joined in June 2004, and has since executed a most remarkable recovery. At the time he joined in 2004, Fiat was only using 70% of its 2.5 million capacity. Now by 2010 Fiat expects to make 3.5 million vehicles. At the time debt was 4.4 billion euros and cash flow was draining at a rapid rate. The $2 billion from GM as part of their agreement, came in handy to make several new car models. But Marchionne had to start with a whole new team, and tear up the old ways of doing business and the old hierarchy and management. He put a group of younger managers in charge, and brought in a style that was open honest and straight talking, with plenty of direct communication. By 2007 on the back of the Punto and the Fiat 500 and the Bravo and other new models, Fiat had made a record profit of 3.2 billion euros while eliminationg its industrial debt. Its a new way of doing business in Italy. Marchionne had moved quickly and decisively in making changes at Fiat. He flattened out the structure, and gave a small number of younger people the freedom to take the initiative. He also put the former design chief of Pininfarina in charge, and brought all the designers together in Turin's Mirafiori complex in Oficina 83. He put design at the core of the manufacturing process, and cut time to build new models for the Bravo and Fiat 500 from design freeze to production to 18 months from 26, by relying entirely on computer simulations and not building any prototypes. He also gave designers freedom, and took risks when it came to styling to come up with really original and exceptional designing. He also continued developing Fiat's advantage in fuel efficiency of its engines, so that its engines have lower average emissions than any competitor. On the other hand Fiat has been slow to take advantage of the growth in emerging markets in India, China and Russia. Russia for instance will soon become the largest market in Europe, larger than Germany. Fiat shows that the right manager can and does make a difference between disaster and making a big success. Alitalia is now in the situation that Fiat was then, it isstruggling to find its future. With Chrysler's collapse in the US, and the efforts to revive Chrysler, these are lessons applicable in the US also. ...

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This indepth report from the Economist looks at the damage done in 9 years of rule under Jacob Zuma, and the prospects of the African National Congress under the new leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa. The South African economy suffered under Jacob Zuma. The Zuma government hurt the government's finances, and suffered from corruption and mismanagement. Only 21% of South Africans trust their government in one poll. This indepth report also asks the question- how much has changed since the days of Apartheid South Africa? Mandela's release from prison in 1990, and the ANC party winning elections in 1994 changed South Africa into a multi cultural and multi ethnic society with democracy. A liberal constitution protects the rights of all of South Africa's communities and citizens. Share of households without electricity fell from 42% in 1996 to 10% in 2016. Black people make up 50% of the middle class. Blacks now make up more buyers of suburban homes than whites. Race relations are better today. The problem is that progress and improvement in living and economic conditions stalled after 2009 when Jacob Zuma as head of the African National Congress became president. GDP per person declined after 2013. Half of South Africans were born after the end of Apartheid in 1994. Nearly 40% of people of age 15-34 are not in work, training or education. To get into the middle class one needs a job. About 62% of South Africans would trade democracy for an unelected leader who could deliver on housing and jobs and the economy. Cyril Ramaphosa was made president and head of the ANC after a bruising struggle to oust Jacob Zuma in 2017 ANC conference. He now faces elections in May 2019. In the 1980's he led the National Union of Mineworkers. He later became secretary general of the ANC in the 1990's and led talks for democracy. Ramphosa was passed over by Mandela because of pressure within ANC to select Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki was followed by Zuma, also from ANC. Ramaphosa then joined business, as a small number of well connected black South Africans and made $450 million through preferential access to equity in large firms for a few black South Africans. Then went back to the ANC as deputy president,  then deputy president of the country. The Economist says after Zuma South Africa is running out of time, and Mr. Ramaphosa expected to win, faces many challenges, particularly youth unemployment. ...

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After delaying taking a loan from the IMF, a multilateral lender known for setting austerity conditions for its loans, Pakistan finally accepts a IMF loan of $6 billion over 3 years. In August 2018 Pakistan turned to Saudi Arabia for $3 billion loan and deferring oil payments of a similar amount, UAE for $3 billion, and China adding another $2.2 billion. A sharp drop in the country's currency reserves left Pakistan little choice. Other problems were a overvalued exchange rate that hurt exporters under the previous government and fiscal spending on needed infrastructure that could not be matched with changes in tax collection. Pakistan has some of the poorest tax collection in Asia, depriving the government of the funds needed to finance infrastructure.  The IMF loan is a smaller loan so that Pakistan would feel less compelled to comply with the difficult conditions often imposed by the IMF that has made it unpopular in developing countries, particularly in Latin America. This is the 21st IMF loan to Pakistan. Only Argentina has had to turn to the IMF for 21 loans. For example the IMF conditions to Pakistan require increasing the electricity and gas prices. Under the IMF plan Pakistan must cut its budget deficit before debt service to 0.6% of GDP next fiscal year starting in July 2019 from the deficit of 1.7% expected this year.  To do this tax breaks of 350 billion rupees or $2.5 billion next year have to be removed. The central bank autonomy was also promised and with this 2 former Pakistani IMF officials now head the central bank. Because widening the tax collection base and better tax collection are promises made in the past to IMF which have not happened, this report in the Economist magazine says implementation in this IMF plan will also be lax, more so as the IMF loan is small and supplemented with funds from other countries. A cartoon in one magazine critical of the IMF shows the IMF officials from Pakistan negotiating for the Pakistan central bank with the IMF head Christine Lagarde. Increasing the Pakistan tax base is essential for Pakistan's development to invest in infrastructure similar to what is happening in India. Releasing funds for infrastructure, roads and railways, hospitals and education, requires a larger tax base in all South Asian countries. Without this internal capital and showing results of spending -with successful infrastructure implementation with least or no corruption or overspending- countries risk falling behind.  ...

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The Ukraine war could go on for months in a prolonged war of attrition now that Russian strategy is to withdraw its forces near Kviv and concentrate its forces in the east - on Donbas and Luhansk- says this report in the WSJ. US, Britain and other allied nations in Europe are increasing assistance to Ukraine in the conflict which could result in a long conflict. The result could be lasting changes in how the world was perceived pre covid and pre Ukraine. As in past conflicts in Europe there may be no winners in this war, just lasting changes in economic structures, more refugees integrated into the Eastern European economies, and accelerated changes in supply chains, renewable energy investment. Russia's people are not fully engaged, with use of younger less motivated and trained soldiers, leading to a conflict similar to that of the earlier period in European history where kings in Europe fought wars for geopolitical advantage, small territorial gains, and wars ended in small shifts in the balance of power between England, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Russia. German chancellor Scholz is said to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms account of this in a book titled- "Europe." The book is appropriately subtitled "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Simms sees Germany as critical to what happens in Europe.  One of the key changes is the reintegration of Germany and European Union with the US as happened during the years after world War II. The policies pursued by former chancellor Merkel in relation to China and Russia and the integration of the German and European economies with China and Russia is likely to be reversed for stronger US-EU ties under the Scholz and Biden leadership of the alliance, and stronger economic ties with Japan and India in Asia.     ...

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Islamist parties are having difficulty integrating into political life and bridging the differences with secularist or liberal political parties in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Pakistan and Turkey following the democratic transition in 2011-2013 in the Muslim world. Some progress has been made, but lack of experience, lack of respect for the opposition and other opinion, overreaching, personal styles of individual leaders such as Erdogan and Morsi, and poor economic conditions after decades of neglect under military rulers in Egypt and other countries, is creating problems for Islamist parties in government.

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Former President Clinton takes the lectern in the White House briefing room to explain why Obama signed off on renewal of the Bush tax cuts for all segments of society. The effort to overcome resistance in the Democratic party and among groups skeptical of postponing tough decisions in management of public finances in the US.

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The background behind Secretary Paulson's efforts to ensure an orderly disposition of assets and not distress sales, that would be damaging to the financial markets and create continued difficulties in the markets for all types of commercial paper. Describes in detail the meeting on Sept 16, 2007 convened by Treasury with private banking sector participants.

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What is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and what does it mean for the US in the current protests? The Muslim Brotherhood was started in Egypt in 1928, in the colonial days, by an imam and schoolteacher named Hassan al-Banna. The intent was to act as a grassroots organization to promote the reform of Egyptian society through a greater adherence to Islam, by preaching and social services. Scott Shane talks with Reidel of the Brookings Institution and Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Quatar Center about the Brotherhood and Israel. Reidel was the Egypt desk officer at the CIA when Mubarak came to power in 1981, and is an experienced observer of the Muslim world at Brookings. Reidel says if we want democracy in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is going to be a big part of this, and we should be engaging and talking to them now. Hamid responds to a question about terrorism by pointing out that the Al Quaeda hates the Brotherhood and the Brotherhood hates Al Quaeda, that for counterterrorism engaging with the Brotherhood would be helpful to the US. On Israel, Hamid says years of accomodation to the real world has brought a knowledge that the Brotherhood has to live in the real world and the geopolitics of the Middle East. Carrie Wickham, a political scientist at Emory University, is author of "Mobilizing Islam," a 2002 book on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. Carrie says it was analogous to evangelical Christians and their goal of sharing the word of God, but Banna also referred to Jihad as a struggle against colonialism and Zionism. Some leaders such as Sayyid Qutb, who was imprisoned by the Egyptian government and executed in 1966, advocated violent jihad, but after the 1970's the Brotherhoods formally renounced violence as a means of achieving power. In 1984 the Brotherhood reached another point in its evolution when it competed in parliamentary elections. And estimates of its actual support begin at about 20% of the electorate. Another development is the relative youthfulness of the April 6th and other movements in Egypt, where two thirds of the people are under 30 years age. The Muslim Brotherhood leaders are much older and hesitated to join the popular movement in its early stages. On the question of the Brotherhood's future evolution and winning a large role in a future government, Carrie says that a system of checks and balances has to be established to ensure that the Brotherhood operates as a democratic party committed to the democratic process. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial on February 4, 2011, emphasizes the need for institutional checks and balances. Carrie says rewriting the constitution and electoral process to ensure that this happens and no one party can take abslute control is crucial. ...

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The government of Theresa May and the EU appear to be on a collision course with the release of the EU draft legal agreement that says Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and future arbitration or appeal would be under the European Court of Justice.

Ireland favors the EU draft and sees it as a default solution to avoiding a hard border with Northern Ireland if it becomes necessary. Theresa May and the DUP party of Ireland on whom the prime minister depends for her coalition government's thin majority support in parliament, both reject the EU solution. 

The Labor Party says it would solve the Irish border issue by entering into a new customs union with the EU, so that no checks are needed at the border for people and goods. The Labor party sees it as vital to prevent any effort to undermine the Good Friday Agreement that forms the basis of the peace in Northern Ireland.

 

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Britain's High Court gives a ruling on November 2, 2016, that the government must consult parliament, and that parliament has to approve the plan for Brexit before invoking Article 50. This means that the government has to lay out the details of its plans which make it harder to conduct negotiations. The Conservative Party also does not have a majority in the House of Lords. Legal experts say the decision which caught the government by surprise was expected from a constitutional law standpoint which looks at whether the sovereign or parliament is supreme in making such a decision. Members of parliament in general were not in favor of leaving the European Union, making this add an element of uncertainty about Brexit. Political experts say one way out for Theresa May who earlier announced that she would invoke Article 50 by March 2017, is to call a general election. Today she has 329 seats in a 650 member parliament, with many of the MP's opposed to Brexit. May's government is expected to appeal the High Court decision to the Supreme Court. ...

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Costs eventually come down, royalties are lower, production processes get better- consider three manufacturing powerhouses Matsushita, Sony and Samsung. All three manufacturers are working on developing better Blu Ray machines at costs consumers are willing to pay. The better technology with the resources to back it up and solve problems that come up will have a better future.

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How the Chinese system of screening products is at its beginning stage so consumers aren't protected when companies use unsafe chemicals to cut costs. Corruption and lack of regulaory authorites and poor enforcement all add to the problem so consumers who care would try too shop at large supermarkets that have a reputation for screening out unsafe products.

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How Airbus is learning from the mistakes made in Boeing's Dreamliner, which will be out in late 2009. Airbus's competing plane the A350 will come out in 2013. Use of outside contractors and puttting all that work together is a critical issue once again, especially with production spread out around the world, including Russia and China.

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British Airways to start flights from New York to Paris with a new carrier its launching called OpenSkies. Flights will be added to Amsterdam, Milan and Brussels. This is part of the new Open Skies aviation treaty between the USA and the European Union which lets airlines of both the EU and the USA fly on all transatlantic routes.

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The Queen of England at age of 95 politely and firmly turned down the Oldie of the Year Award, saying "you are only as old as you feel." Actually Queen Elizabeth is doing all her duties making speeches, hosting leaders as normally as possible. The Queen will host international business investment leaders for a Global Investment Summit. She also told leaders that she was proud of Britain's efforts for climate change, and the moves to a sustainable future.