LyrArc Article Gist
A New York hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. finally makes a settlement with the new Argentine government of president Mauricio Macri. It took 15 years and 5 different administrations in Argentina. Eliott gained $2.4 billion 10-15 times the original investment on Argentine bonds made in 2001, but requiring extraordinary persistence from hedge fund manager Mr. Newman at Elliott Management Corp and Mr. Singer. In 2001 the Argentine bonds traded at 20 cents to the dollar, and Mr. Newman who had made large gains on Peruvian bonds saw this as a good investment. By 2008 the bonds instead traded at pennies on the dollar, and the Argentine government later settled with 93% of bondholders at 30 cents to the dollar. The holdouts were three hedge funds, including Elliott. The Argentine government of Kirchner opposed any settlement with the holdouts. The situation changed with the election of Mauricio Macri in 2015, who made resolution of the issue a priority, so that Argentina could borrow in global financial markets and grow its economy. The U.S. Supreme Court had rejected Argentina's appeal of a U.S. District Court ruling prohibiting paying interest on exchanged bonds when payment had not been made to the holdout hedge funds- which led to the settlement with Elliott, and closing a long and difficult chapter for Argentina....

LyrArc Article Gist
How companies like United Health are lobbying aggressively to shape the new helathcare legislation to their benefit. BW says the health insurers like United Health, Aetna and Wellpoint are already winning through clever and effective lobbying of Congress. Former Senator Tom Daschle works as aconsultant for United Health. Senator Conrad who has led aeffort to replace the public plan with nonprofit medical cooperatives, which would be a weaker competitive threat to insurers, is also influened by the insurers. United Health's CEO Helmsley and its person working with Congress on healthcare Simon Stevens met with Conrad on June 4. When lawmakers in Congress cite consulting group Lewin Group, that 88 million or 56% of those with employer provided coverage would desert private insurance for a government run program, they are quoting acompany owned by United Health. The Congressional Budget Ofice says these numbers are too high. United Health has used savy presentations on how to cut costs, and help Blue Dog and other Democrats articulate their positions, to gain influence in shaping the plan to their interests. United Health thus counts a lot with Matheson, and Mike Ross of Arkansas, who are prominent with the 52 Blue Dog Democrats. and with Senator Mark Warner of Virginia. And United Health put together an effective lobbbying group, even hiring the chief of staff of House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wal-Mart is expected to announce a five year plan to meet specific targets for lowering sodium, trans fats and aded sugars in a whole range of foods- including rice, soups, canned beans, salad dressings and snacks foods- in packaged foods sold under its house brand, Great Value. Other moves towards healthy foods are to move to eliminate the extra cost to consumers for healthy foods made with whole grains. It will also lower prices on fresh fruits and vegetables. This plan is similiar to other plans announced by companies such as Con Agra Foods which set a target of reducing sodium content in foods by 20% by 2015. New York City also has a public health initiative for healthy foods. another move by Wal-Mart is to get major food suppliers like Kraft, to follow the example set by Wal-Mart. Kraft sells 16% of its global sales through Wal-Mart. The move will be gradually introduced over five years which makes for slow progress, and the targets set for sugar reductions are much less than they should be, says Michael Jacobson, executive director of Center for Science in the Public Interest. Another serious drawback is that Wal-mart has not proposed to tackle the major cause of childhood obesity, which is the added sugars in soft drinks....

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Meltzer would like to see the Fed reverse its quantitative easing, and lower excess reserves gradually starting now. By this he hopes to see the Fed avoid the mistake of making a big shift from excessive ease to severe contraction further down the road. He also warns agains excessive deficit spending. He says a weak economy is not the time to cut spending or raise taxes, and he is not talking of draconian immediate steps. He would like to see a multiyear program to increase fiscal probity and reduce deficits size and frequency. As it stands now he takes both parties to task for lack of fiscal discipline and honest accounting. About $1 trillion in deficits each year on average for next 10 years is in the works, and is an underestimate because the savings of $200-$300 billion in medicare spending have still to be realized, and states do not have funds for increased Medicaid spending, and payments to doctors have still to go down by 25%. Chinese government purchases of half our debt will postpone the day of reckoning says Meltzer, but far better for us to strike at the problem now, before we blow a hole in the dollar and start a downturn. See the separate report on the shrinking UK economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Here Posen of the Peterson Institute and Jeffrey Garten of Yale speak in favor of nationalization. Nancy Pelosi also supports nationalization as away to protect taxpayers. The bad bank option is considered, but one of the drawbacks is that the taxpayers may not be sufficiently protected as bad assets become ever larger. Geithner and Summers made the case in the financial crisis in Asia in the 1990's that the government makes lousy financial managers. But is it more a political issue as charges from Republicans would be that the government is going socialist. Yet its more the way the word has negative connotations, more than what is to be done in this situation. The reality is that the banks are pretty much in government hands anyway with the amount of taxpayer money at risk, and without any way to get rid of the problem of valuing these toxic assets which nationalization effectively eliminates. The U.S. government has put in its own managers and gone through the cycle of owning and later privatizing banks successfully in the S&L crisis in the 1990's. Its very probable that its not the ideological thing that will carry the day, but the decisive action and the confidence it can build for the financial system. See the link to the Economist view on this. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Martin Fedstein has a new idea for solution to the mortgage and credit crisis. He has a Loan Substitution Program and this is how it works. The Government would loan mortgage holders 20% of their current mortgage loan, with a 15 year payback period, and an adjustable interest rate based on what the government pays on two-year Treasury debt (now just 1.6%).The loan proceeds would go to immediately reduce the borrower's primary mortgage, cutting interest and principal payments by 20%. Participation in the program would be voluntaryand participants could prepay the government loan at any time. The basic idea is to lower the Loan to Value Ratios and help prevent foreclosures and defaults so that house prices which may have another 10-15% to fall, do not fall steeply and overshoot as millions of foreclosures take place across the country in coming months. Legislation would require that the government must be repaid before all creditors except the mortgage lenders, and that the debt to the government would have to be paid, even if the homeowner defaults on a mortgage. The critical thing this would accomplish is that homeowners would pay less in total interest. In exchange for that reduction in that interest, they would decrease the amount of the debt they can escape by defaulting on their mortgage....

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Gates on the impotance of giving specific feedback to teachers for improvement and the designing of a teacher evaluation system that relies on a number of factors beyond just student test scores. He says teaching is more complex than that and requires other factors such as peer group and other educator assessments based on classroom observations, student feedback, and items that reflect a focus on improved teaching skills and effectiveness in the classroom setting. Public disclosure of ratings is a bad idea says Gates, because it is not intended to embarrass teachers.

LyrArc Article Gist
California's economy is going through tough times during the coronavirus. Unemployment is up to over 20% which compares to 14.7% for the U.S., closer to that of New York. The state depends on the tourism industry, agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley, and entertainment industry around Los Angeles for jobs. Tech in the San Jose area does not account for as many jobs. The state also has a public university system and foreign students mostly from China bringing in $7 billion.   Its port system around Long Beach and Los Angeles connects with the Asian economies and China, for goods mainly transported to the rest of the U.S.  All these sectors are the ones most badly hit during the coronavirus.  California now has a deficit of $54 billion and was the first state to borrow from the federal government to pay $13 billion in unemployment claims. Undocumented Californians are not able to collect unemployment because of their immigration status, creating an American version of the informal economy that is found in India and Italy or Spain. California has 83 million people taking plane trips to the state for a tourism industry that normally brings in $145 billion. 600,000 travel industry jobs were lost in the state. Taxes related to travel are a significant source of revenue for cities in California bringing in $12 billion. The only sector that is less affected is the tech industry, yet this makes up only about 10% of the jobs or 1.7 million higher paid but fewer jobs. This tech sector at about just 15% of the California economy GDP, is of a precarious nature with a boom bust pattern, the last boom one that happened since the 2009 financial crisis. It in no way forms a significant support for employment or income for people in California or the U.S., and may even be responsible for distortions in the allocation of capital away from infrastructure and public services, through its disproportionate influence on how the nation's capital is allocated. The broader changes underway during coronavirus are likely to affect the state over many years, as supply chains shift away from China, and as infrastructure and public services investment assume their rightful role again in the nation rebuilding effort, agriculture and rural America become a part of the American renewal story.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Some of the concern about the economy comes from the economic damage done by the coronavirus. The longer the shutdowns continue the more the damage. About 17 million have filed claims for unemployment benefits. The WSJ consensus of 57 economists is that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in coming months, and the unemployment rate will rise to a record 13% in June, from a 50 year low of 3.5% in February. The earliest the economy could go back to the level in February 2020 is 27 months says the WSJ economist survey. The brighter side of this comes in two aspects of this pandemic recovery curve. By flattening the curve and strict testing, contact tracing and isolation till the vaccine is developed about half the jobs lost can be recovered by the end of summer, says Moody's Analytics. The vaccine a year from now or in 9 months by November 2020 would allow the economy to recover faster. A more optimistic view comes from Daiwa Capital Markets which predicts many of people laid off will be recalled quickly allowing the labor market to recover in 6 months by September or October 2020. Only finance and real estate might take longer but most of the industries where the vast majority of jobs are could be back on their feet. The credible evidence supporting this perspective of a rebound comes from Colorado and Washington which require large employers to specify whether layoffs are temporary or permanent, 70% this year are temporary. Compare this to the prior 2009 recession where this figure was less than 1%- as reported by WSJ. The big push in this direction will be the $2 trillion that the Trump administration and U.S. Congress have committed to this task. Even more so is the determination of president Trump to protect American workers at all costs, that every job counts, and that businesses without exception to get the money have to show that workers are retained. The very success of the aid is being judged by how quickly people are back to work. Now for a look at where the situation is today- Oxford Economics, a UK based forecasting and consulting firm, projects 27.9 million jobs lost with industries other than those ordered to close making up 8 to 10 million of that number. It projects April's report will will capture late March layoffs. It will show cuts to 3.4 million business services workers, including lawyers, software groups, architects and consultants, advertising professionals, in addition to 1.5 million non-essential healthcare workers, 100,000 information workers. One conclusion of this report is that the virus does not discriminate across business groups and business service workers are also affected. Many companies that were hiring will cancel that move and many will cut hours worked. Many of these business services are not a priority. Hospitals are affected too, as they cut elective surgical procedures and routine care that are major revenue sources. Some are now charging for telemedicine visits to maintain some revenue stream. State and local governments employ 20 million workers. As tax receipts decline these local governments will face choices of cutting payrolls and services without enough federal government relief. In a way laying off workers and having them take unemployment benefits shifts that burden to the federal government so that services for overtime to police and paramedics, retention and deployment of nurses in schools.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Major policy changes for Wen Biao's second term as Prime Minister with the reorganization of government ministries to streamline them to focus on new policy priorities of reducing pollution, becoming energy efficient, improving the environment, and providing better housing and health care services to migrants and the poorer sections of society. How will this work in execution and in practice remains a question. there will be a new cabinet level Ministry for the Environment. Previous agency for environmental protection had only 300 employees compared to 18,000 for the EPA in the USA so it was woefully inadequate to the task and there was lax enforcement. The budget for environmental protection increased by 31% to $14.47 billion, the size of the new ministry is not disclosed. After the recent snowstorms disrupted energy supplies and infrastructure a new Ministry has been formed to for Transport.

LyrArc Article Gist
A new Pew Research Center Survey shows prime minister Modi enjoying 88% popularity, very high ratings for a world leader. More unusual is that Modi's popularity was 87% in a Pew Survey in 2015, showing extraordinary resilience. This comes after moves to remove the large denomination rupee notes under what is called demonetization to take out some of the black money in India and increase tax revenues that were lost due to evasion. In South Asia tax evasion is rampant, much more than in countries like Italy of the eurozone. The move was difficult as it required being sudden, and a shift to use of debit cards and ATM's which required additional effort, slowing the economy. The other moves such as on GST tax were designed to facilitate doing business in India with one tax and free movement of goods replacing different state by state taxes. Business has not responded quickly to support Modi, and the Indian economy being prepared for the long term growth Modi hopes to generate is slowing in the short term. GDP growth has dropped to 6%. A bullet train planned in western India with help from Japanese financing and technology is being criticized unfairly because of the collapse of an old bridge near a railway station in Mumbai. Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes at Pew Research, says the survey was done after demonetization but before the GST tax overhaul. This is not likely to change Modi's high ratings. The GST overhaul has been on the agenda for many years for all political parties in India. The views of Modi are not necessarily the same as for his BJP party which are lower for the party, the party gaining more from Modi's efforts and leadership, including in his home state of Gujarat. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
People in California did not feel the early blows of the coronavirus like New York. This is now turning into a disadvantage as people in California have now failed to follow the guidelines for social distancing and masks as carefully as they should be. The state reopening  took place as the case numbers were increasing as the economy and unemployment became an issue.  State hospitalizations are up 40% on July 1 from 2 weeks ago. Percentage of tests coming positive are close to 6% but in some counties much higher- in Riverside county has rate positive in tests at 11.7% and bars are only recommended to close. In Los Angeles county it is 8.2%. On June 20 the day after the bars were allowed to open 500,000 people visited bars in Los Angeles County. A big problem is that for lockdown the whole state was asked to lockdown by the governor. For reopening it is done by county and each county is doing this differently. Pressure to reopen has led to counties with increasing and poor metrics for cases still reopening. Some counties felt pressured to open when other counties had reopened. Even when a county such as Riverside or Los Angeles county is doing poorly the governor waits 14 days for it to be on a watch list before acting. This is too long for the extremely contagious virus giving it time to spread quickly. Governor Newson is now facing serious problems tackling the coronavirus. ...