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Washington Post Analysis and details of Census Bureau trade information in September 2025 -showing the country by country and product tariffs by US and which tariffs are waiting for final trade agreements. China, India and Switzerland, Mexico face high tariffs. UK, EU, South Korea, Japan have made trade agreements with the US, China, India Swiss are still to finalize trade agreements leading to the uncertainty. The North American Trade Agreement is being renegotiated leading to uncertainty for Mexico and Canada which have both benefitted from trade with the US to detriment of US manufacturers.  China has huge surpluses that keep growing over time to $1 trillion ($992 billion) a year in 2024.  DJT Tariffs are designed as a bold step to remake the international trading system so that it does not work to the benefit of other nations gaming the system over decades as US administrations Clinton, Bush, Obama, paid no attention. Trade Deficits and the National Debt are a problem not just the National Debt. On the National Debt Republicans have pushed through cuts in parts of the budget where costs had escalated tremendously. ...

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Macron is a close advisor to president Hollande since 2008. With the resignation of Montebourg as Economy Minister, Hollande offered the position to Emmanuel Macron to help improve conditions for business and increase investment in France. Macron pushed measures for changes through parliament by resorting to constitutional provisions because of opposition from the president;s own Socialist party members. Prime minister Valls was able to win the no-confidence vote that followed. In the 4th quarter of 2014 GDP growth in France was only 0.1%, lagging behind Germany at 0.7%. The economic stagnation has pushed Macron and the president to take more risks in overcoming resistance within the Socialist Party to relax labor restrictions and increase business investment. Macron says he agrees with investors that the 2 year tax of 75% on salaries of more than 1 million euros

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Rafael Nadal makes a remarkable comeback to beat Medvedev after losing the first two sets in the 2022 Australian Open tennis tournament. The match lasted 5 hours till 1 am the next day. Nadal says "Being honest one month and a half ago, I did not know if I will be back on the tour plying tennis again... you don't know how much I fought to be here." Nadal is one of the of the most resilient players in sports having comeback from difficult situations repeatedly, as he gives his all down to the last point regardless of the score. 

 

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In 2023 there are 4.3 million electric vehicles on American roads and 150,000 public charging ports. President Biden's goal is for 50% of cars to be EV's by 2030 with 500,000 public charging ports. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory affiliated with DOE forecasts need for 1 million charging ports. Ohio and Pennsylvania are leading the way in a slow start with other states joining in. A single public charging port can cost about $150,000. It will cost $31 billion to $55 billion to build the public portion of a national charging network. About $24 billion is planned investment.

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The Bank of England is showing concern about the amount of unencumbered assets on the balance sheets of European banks as more of the assets are committed for secured lending from the ECB and other sources. This reduces the ability to issue unsecured bonds and raises the possibility of a funding shortage.

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Boris Johnson leads a new British government that is composed mostly of ministers who want to see Brexit happen, and giving the positions of Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary to persons who do not care what happens as long as Britain leaves the European Union. Johnson's date is October 31st for leaving the EU. Sajid Javid, a former Deutsche Bank AG executive is the new chancellor of the exchequer. Priti Patel is new Home Secretary. Dominic Raab a former lawyer who has called for parliament to be suspended if need be so that Brexit can be pushed through is the new Foreign Secretary. Dominic Cummings who headed the Leave campaign for the Brexit referendum in 2016 is the new adviser at 10 Downing Street. Johnson's strategy is to pack the cabinet with people loyal to his vision of leaving the EU October 31st regardless of what the EU does.  The EU has not changed its position and is even less likely to consider any new Irish border proposals. Three top ministers are opposed to Mr. Johnson's views and resigned. Treasury chief Philip Hammond, Deputy primeminister David Lidington, Justice Secretary David Gauke, all resigned in opposition to Mr. Johnson simply pulling Britain out of the EU. Johnson once said all he feared from Britain abruptly leaving the EU was a shortage of Mars bars. During the election in the Conservative party Mr. Johnson was mostly quiet and avoided any gaffes to sound statesman like, yet as the process unfolds Mr. Johnson is likely to face the same problems faced by his predecessor Mrs. May. Added to this is the new opposition of moderates like Mr. Hammond and Gauke in the Conservative party that could topple the government and lead to a general election with just three vote swing in the other direction doing this. Mr. Johnson has prepared for this by having Mr. Cummings as a top adviser in the event he faces a general election. Meantime the Labour party initially not favoring a second referendum with Mr. Corbyn's ambiguous views on Brexit, as shifted gradually to the leadership and the rank and file all favoring a second referendum and for Remain. As Greg Ip has pointed out in the WSJ this week the conditions have changed with protectionism, nationalism and hostility to globalization, and president Trump not planning concessions of any sort even for the UK in trade negotiations. This means to low productivity of less than 1% to support stifled wages, one would have to add a 3.5% hit to GDP from a no deal Brexit such as Mr. Johnson approves according to the IMF. With the migration issue not what it was three years ago and reduced to a trickle this new situation must be on the minds of Mr. Corbyn, Labour and Conservative moderates. ...

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With Obama's popularity rating in 2016 similar to Reagan's in his last year in office at 51%, he announced his endorsement of Hillary Clinton for president. Obama is likely to campaign in 2016 for Hillary to reunite the Democratic Party, bring Bernie Sanders and Sander's supporters behind the Democratic nominee, including younger women.

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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The strange story of an aging ship in extremely bad shape from a Black sea port in Georgia with a 2750 ton shipment of ammonium nitrate with a crew on unpaid wages making its way to port Beira in Mozambique in 2013. It is leased by a Russian owner living in Cyprus who would make $1 million for transporting the shipment to Fabrica de Explosivos de Mozambique. It makes an unscheduled stop in Beirut after problems with seamen on the crew to pickup some heavy machinery which might help pay the ship's crews wages. The machinery does not fit and in any case the ship is in such bad condition and cannot handle any machinery.  The port authorites are interested only in the docking fees which the indebted Russian owner does not pay and abandons his leased ship. The port of Beirut impounds the ship for unpaid docking fees which turns out to be the reason the ship remains in Beirut harbor. The ship fails shipping standards and takes in water, it remains in Beirut harbor till 2014 when the ship sinks. Before that the Beirut authorites for some strange reason unload the ammonium nitrate and leave it in Hangar 12 warehouse where it remained till it exploded yesterday. The authorites never gave much thought to the ammonium nitrate and its dangers till after unloading it. After unloading no one accepted responsibility. The Russian who had leased the ship was living in Cyprus and took no responsibility. The government of Lebanon also did not know what to do with it.  Repeated attempts by the port authorites asking the government to take some action for disposal fails to lead to any action. There is now a sense that Lebanon is a failing state because of the nature of this incident.   ...

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The failure of the Obama administration's HARP, Home Affordable Refinance Program. It was designed to allow certain homeowners who owe between 80% and 105% of their home's current value to take advantage of lower rates. It was limited to loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. The HARP program was touted by Obama administration as helping potentially 4-5 million borrowers to refinance. So far only 12,710 refinancings have been completed according to the Treasury department. According to Freddie Mac by refinancing borrowers on average reduce the mortgage rates by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, saving around $2500 on a $200,000 loan. Now a new development further aggravates the housing market recovery. On June 10, 2009 rates on 30 year fixed mortgages climbed to 5.79%, up from 5% two weeks ago according to HSH Associates. That increase cuts in half the number of borrowers with incentives to refinance, according to FTN Financial. Now refinance activity is way down.

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Obama's five year $200 million "My Brothers Keeper" effort to help black and minority youth.

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Efforts to increase wages by the Abe administration in Japan. Combined 10 of 12 major auto worker unions in Japan said companies had met their full demands in 2013. Toyota offered workers a bonus equal to 6 months of base pay- a 15% increase over 2012 bonus. This reverses a negative trend of declining wages in Japan- average annual compensation declined for part and full time employees, including bonuses, for 8 of 10 years 2002-2011, reaching 4.09 million yen or $42,800 per worker in 2011, according to the National Tax Agency.

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Life in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is shown alongside as the city struggles with most of its infrastructure destroyed in the war. The $61.5 billion aid to Ukraine was passed in the US Congress only with the efforts of Mitch McConnell who never gave up even in February and March when bills passed in the Senate were stalled in the House as the former president and some of the Republican base wavered. Mitch McConnell says now after the vote of 79 to 18 that passed  in the Senate that "at times I felt I was the only Reagan Republican left." At a meeting with the president in late February he wanted to start the meeting because he says-" I wasn't trying to convince Johnson of anything other than we had a time problem. I did't think we had time to fool around." Speaker Mike Johnson had wavered in calling for a House vote of a Senate bill on Ukraine aid after the former president had declined support. "He had a spine of steel and wouldn't give in to pressure from those in our caucus who did not have the depth of understanding of the stakes and who had reached different conclusions" says  Susan Collins who visited Ukraine in 2022 with McConnell. She calls him "steadfast and unwavering." Pat Schumer says "I give him a huge amount of credit. we were shoulder to shoulder on this." As he stays in the Senate till his term ends in January 2027, Mitch McConnell can look back on two decades of leadership in Senate realizing he had added nine Republican votes to get it 31 Republicans for Ukraine aid at a critical time. He says of two rules he has followed for 18 years - you take a lot of arrows, and yet you never speak about your members on or off the record, and in that sense he is free to pursue his own interests and has a lot of latitude now till 2027. He will be sorely needed in the Senate as the voice of experience and depth of understanding.   ...

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GM plans to bring 5 to 10 Cadillac models to China by 2016. It plans to build a factory for Cadillacs in China. Even as auto sales are slowing down in China in 2012, sales of luxury and premium cars are growing rapidly. Infiniti, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tata's Jaguar-Land Rover, and now GM are competing for sales to China's growing affluent class. According to IHS Global Insight, China's auto sales slowed to 2.5% growth in 2011, yet sales of premium car sales increased by 32%. With sales slowing in Europe and the U.S., car manufacturers are focussing on the luxury segment in China to boost profits. BMW's sales chief, Ian Robertson, says sales will slow in coming quarters from the 32% growth rate of 2011, but he still expects double digit growth for premium cars in future years. In making its large investments in China Ford executives said it expected a growth in China's car market of 5% over the next decade. BMW plans to increase production to 200,000 cars after opening its second plant in 2011, with capacity to ramp up to 300,000 a year....

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HV.1 and EG.5 are the dominant Covid variants in November 2023 each taking up about 25% of cases in the US. Paxlovid works against these variants. The new Pfizer vaccine also works against these Covid variants. More than any single variant the rapid rate of virus evolution, the many mutations, are the chief concern of experts. Overall they combine to produce the threat we face in public health.

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Democrats face an uphill battle to recover lost territory during the Obama presidency. The efforts to promote Trans Pacific Trade Agreement by Obama against the interests of the unions, working class Americans, is one example of the way president Obama had alienated working class Americans. By being too close to Silicon Valley and failing to understand the changes in states with blue collar workers Democrats lost some of the working class base that had always voted Democratic. On social issues the party drifted too far in one direction in appealing to small groups and in the process drifting away from blue collar workers who were Democratic in the past but did not share the same passion for these issues. About 90% of better educated Americans were liberal yet among blue collar workers who had voted Democratic in the 1990's only 60% were liberal in the same way. The changes in America's landscape with the shift of manufacturing centres away from cities such as Pittsburgh to blue collar suburbs stretching from Michigan and Wisconsin to the Carolinas and the Deep South, created a new blue collar worker base that was more aligned with Republicans on social issues such as abortion, LGBT, and gun control. As a result the conservative base of the Republican Party now finds itself aligned with the blue collar worker, while the Democratic Party in places like New York and California is more aligned with the workers in the financial industry and in Silicon Valley. The improving economy gives more room for Republicans even with policies that might not help its new working class base as it strives to meet policy demands from wealthier Americans in the Republican Party.   ...

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This Journal editorial says the Bankia bailout continues to be handled poorly by the Spanish government, with Bankia continuing to be a drain on the government funds.

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Zweig points out that P/E multiples fall quickly in the midst of higher uncertainty. Benjamin Graham's "cyclically adjusted" P/E refined by Yale economist Robert Shiller smooths out the top and bottoms of the market by averaging the past 10 years of earnings and incorporating effects of inflation. This "cyclically adjusted" P/E for the U.S. market for the last 50 years is 19.5. The P/E for the market when the S&P 500 was at 1325 in late July 2011 was 22.9, and at the low in the first week of August 2011 of 1167 was 20.2. With the higher uncertainty- as for instance Bank of New York Mellon charging clients to hold cash- the P/E multiples are in a different territory. The P/E dropped to 13.3 in March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. Larger macroeconomic trends and uncertainty may have yet to play out and not registered fully in the market indexes. Jack Hough throws light on this from a different angle in the Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2011 comparing stagnant wages and its relationship with corporate earnings....

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Former Defense Secretary in the second term of the Obama administration, Chuck Hagel, says U.S. president Obama hurt his credibility when he failed to act on his own comments of a "red line" being crossed following the chemical attacks in Syria by the Assad government. Hagel was critical in an article in Foreign Policy magazine of the way the national security advisor, Susan E. Rice, ran discussions on foreign policy issues, with too many meetings and discussion followed up with deferring difficult decisions.

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Oil supplies are not expected to go up with Mexicio and Russia's aging fields crimping production, non opec production barely budging with 1% increase this year according to IEA. Indonesia production down by half from its peak. Countries in the middle east like Iran are consuming more and have less available for export. And the Saudis plan to build huge chemical aluminium and other plants as well as cities in the desert, and increase electricity production. This will take up some of the oil production and make less available for export. Militant strikes have shut down over 25% of production of Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of production repeatedly in the last few years. And Saudi Arabia has according to CERA only 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity or 2.3% that it can add, all of the safety cushion in one country according to Daniel Yergin. Yergin sees prices up to $150 barrel based on the supply constraints. The demand side is showing declining consumption in the USA but not by enough to compensate for growing consumption in China by 5% this year, and the increase in consumption in India, Russia, Brazil and other developing countries including Middle East. The reason for continuing consumption increases in the rest of the world is that price impact has been less severe in Europe because of the strong euro and oil priced in US dollars, and in China because Petrochina is required to put price caps so gasoline price increases are not that harsh. And India also cushions the price impact to some extent to protect consumers. And autos are just taking off in large numbers in China, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries. The drop in consumption in the USA has to be large enough to have an impact. And the shift to fuel efficient targets in the new fuel efficiency regulations in the USA are too modest and over a number of years to have any impact in the short term or in the next 1-3 years. In February US oil demand dropped to 19.7 million barrels a day, down 1 million barrels a day from the US average for 2007, but this insufficient conservation to impact price. Even though new cars are shifting to higher fuel efficient small cars the impact on the total fleet is gradual as cars on the road purchased in the last 5-10 years are still on the road. Even as the consumption falls in the US the offset is occurring in the other countries like China, Russia and India. Some of this is due to the euro and some to speculation but the supply constraints are real and demand momentum is still there in China, Middle east, Russia and India to keep offsetting savings elsewhere and keeping supplies tight. The euro increased in value by 2% while oil prices increased by 10% since the 1st week of April so there is more than the weakening dollar and some speculation to this surge, which may be why the normally cautious Yergin says the price rise to $150 is realistic and says, its not just that the genie is out of the bottle, a hundred genies are out of the bottle. That is to say for the immediate future of demand momentum and supply sluggishness which could run 6-24 months, to the Olympics and maybe a year or so from then. This ties in with the thinking behind the Goldman's estimate and CERA's estimate. ...

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P&G will continue its strategy of introducing bargain priced brands, even as it developes and markets premium and super premium brands to reach consumers across a whole spectrum of prices. Even with this effort revenue is expected to grow only slightly by 1-2 % in 2009 and 2010.

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A wealth tax passed by voters in 2022 in Massachusetts of 4% on incomes exceeding $1 million, yields 3 billion dollars in 2024. Other states are looking at doing this on income over $500,000 for married couples. This includes Minnesota, Maryland, Washington and other states that are seeing a shortfall in taxes and need to offset the loss of federal funding by the DJT administration for Medicaid and other services. The results in Massachusetts shows the revenue forecasted is exceeded proving that millionaires do not always move because they do not want to uproot homes and education of children. There is also an offsetting factor as federal rules under DJT have favored the wealthy in the tax code.