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At a time when the Ukraine war has hurt poor countries Germany plans to cut its development aid by 12% in its draft budget. The budget is expected to shrink to 10.8 billion euros at a time when defense budget is increased to 50 billion euros. The boost to defense is a result of the war in Ukraine. Germany is also set to cut its contribution to the World Food Programme by 50% to 28 million euros. Russia and Ukraine supply wheat, cereals to poor countries. High energy prices also affect these countries.

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US president DJT meets with Rutte of the Netherlands Jan 21, 2026. He says he has come up with a framework for US acquisition of Greenland, rights title, and ownership of the island for US security and world security. He called for immediate negotiations with the goal of US acquisition of the island of Greenland.  The political situation is evolving in this way. Germany is key in the developments for the US to acquire Greenland. Britain is standing it out with the Nordic countries as Starmer has shifted to the side of Sweden and Denmark with little to gain for the Labor government which is facing local elections and popularity of Reform UK Party. In this situation Italy and Germany have taken a posture of not making any statements. Germany facing Russian intervention in Ukrain on the east needs the US for joint security at a critical juncture when Russia and the US have agreed to respect each others area of influence. Italy is run by a northern Italy party leaning to the anti-immigration stance taken by DJT in the US. It makes little difference to Netherlands, Germany/Austria/Switzerland and Italy who controls Greenland and in the context of Russian advances and nuclear weapons technology would prefer US move to acquire Greenland and rapidly build up defenses in Greenland with large investments. To not disturb the alliance's northern countries (Britain and Nordics) Germany has taken a back seat to the rhetoric yet will be in the deciding role because of its stable government, support from all parts of the political spectrum for US control of Greenland except for the coalition junior partner the SPD. The SPD Defense Minister Pistorius may form parts of the SPD that see US owning the island as positive in the bolstering of its defense capabilities with th $1 trillion outlay in the budgeted investments. Starmer may have misread DJT and US support as the US president can make a very good case for US owning Greenland and getting Denmark to accept the offer of Harry Truman of $100 million made in 1947, updated for what that sum is today which is $1.5 billion. As DJT pointed out Macron has no longevity for his government in France, and cannot speak for that country. As Treasury Secretary Bessent who along with Rubio is part of the team that will work with the president says, Denmark is irrelevant to the issues US faces for US and world security. It is a small country, Denmark, with a population of 6 million most of it in the area near Copenhagen. Houston or Dallas has a much larger population. For Denmark to decide on momentous issues of US security for the entire eastern seaboard or world security, with ownership essential for the US,  when climate has made the Arctic important, is something the US does not accept.   ...

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Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, tells Italian newspaper La Repubblica on September 1, 2014, that Russian president Putin made some abnormal remarks in a phone conversation. Responding to Barroso's question about whether Russian troops had crossed into eastern Ukraine, Putin is reported to say: "That is not the question... But if I wanted to, I could take Kiev in two weeks." The WSJ editorial on September 3 referred to an earlier editorial on "Putin Bonaparte," giving some idea of how such comments by Putin are seen in the media, and how Putin's actions in Ukraine are creating new tensions with the NATO alliance and the U.S.

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Xi Jinping's 3 day visit to Russia and his meetings with Mr. Putin. China presents the trip as an effort to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine based on its proposals. China is also affected by the war in Ukraine as it works against China's recovery from the economic effects of the pandemic. China sees Russia as a partner in what it sees as a multipolar world, yet it is too close to Germany and the European Union, relations which provide it with access to western technology needed for its continuing growth. China does not want to disrupt the relationship with Germany and the European Union over the war in Ukraine.

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Lengthy conversations between Scholz, Macron and Putin for over 80 minutes on Saturday last week in which German and French leaders tell Russia that it is getting deeper and deeper into a situation that is bad for Russia. At the same time Scholz and his chief of staff Schmidt emphasize that Russia should not be winning the war. With Russian gains using artillery in the east the situation is again moving in a direction where additional US military assistance would be needed for Ukraine to defend itself. The WSJ Editorial Board says today that such additional assistance should be given to Ukraine.

Germany and France see a shortening of the war as a way to reduce the impact of a sharp recession. Macron and Scholz are making an effort to get Russia to talk directly with Ukraine to reach a settlement to end the war. 

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By drawing a comparison of China's aggressive flights close to Taiwan to the invasion of Ukraine, president Biden brings clarity to the US position on Taiwan. He says in Tokyo during his Asian trip that China "was flirting with danger" through its aggressive posture on Taiwan. President Biden made his remarks during a press conference with prime minister Fumio Kishida of Japan in Tokyo. This is what the BBC says about his remarks-  The US president began the press conference by directly linking the China-Taiwan situation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying that the Russian president was "attempting to eliminate the identity of Ukraine." If there was rapprochement eventually between Ukraine and Russia and sanctions were not sustained, "then what does this signal to China about the costs of attempting to take Taiwan by force?" "They are flirting with danger already by flying so close and all the manoeuvres they are undertaking," Biden said, referring to increasing reports of Chinese warplane incursions into Taiwanese airspace. This suggests that the Asian trip of president Biden is bringing with it America's new Asia policy of building strong economic and defense partnerships in Asia. The US president also looks beyond today's conflict in Ukraine to an eventual rapprochement and end of sanctions as a possible scenario in Europe, and sees Asia as the region for America to build new supply chains that strengthen America and its partners, with a new partnership being formed with India, Indonesia and Vietnam, and with other ASEAN nations. In a way Biden and Republicans see the challenge from emerging powers in Asia as similar to the one from Japan in the thirties and the eighties, to be met with the combined economic strength of the US and Europe.  ...

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Ukraine defends itself with American anti missile systems with Ukrainian Air Force saying it disabled 201 of 236 missiles and drones that also hit the energy infrastructure in the country that is already damaged from earlier strikes. The $61 billion aid package from the US that was passed in a bipartisan effort with Biden and McConnell in the Senate provided antimissile defense at a crucial time for Ukraine. Some of which enable it to defend itself.

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German Air Force chief Gerhartz discussing the use of Taurus long range cruise missiles on target Kerch bridge connecting Crimea and Ukraine in a 38 minute audiotape is posted on RT. The meeting took place using an online conferencing tool WebEx which is not encrypted to German armed forces standards. Chancellor Scholz of Germany opposes sending of such missiles to Ukraine. 

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The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...

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Policies of four term chancellor Angela Merkel and positions of SPD's Steinmeir, Schroeder, come under serious scrutiny following the Ukraine invasion with millions of refugees and attacks on civilian population. Their serious miscalculations are now seen in a different light of daily reports of the war and the devastation in Ukraine. Increasing Germany's dependence on energy supplies from Russia from 36% after annexation of Crimea to 55% today is seen as a serious error of chancellor Merkel by the German people, whose views are changing following the millions of refugees and new reports of attacks on civilian population in Ukraine.

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The implications of China's support for Russia on Ukraine for Eastern European countries and for NATO. As the war drags on Eastern European countries say China's support of Russia in trade and commercial relations prolongs the war in Ukraine.

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As tensions increase with Japan Xi turns to the US and has discussion on Ukraine and Taiwan with US president DJT. Xi looks for ways to build a better understanding with the US on a unification of China with Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi calls DJT November 23, 2025. In the background the US 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is being discussed with Ukraine and the EU.

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The first of four German IRIS air defense systems shipped to Ukraine. The systems can protect an entire city from missiles approaching at altitude of upto 12 kilometres and a distance of upto 40 kilometres. It is designed to quickly boster air defense of Ukraine.

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The biggest decision coming out of the NATO and European Council meetings is Germany saying it supports stationing of long range missile systems in Germany by the US by 2026. German chancellor Scholz says the decision was a long time in the making and Germany supports it as a necessary step to secure the country. This happens as China's support to Russia continues through trade and economic relations and the Ukraine war prolonged for another year into 2025. Other decisions were to provide F-16's and added Patriot missile systems so that Ukraine can defend its skies from missile attacks.

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Biden says at a press conference in Tokyo that US commitment to defend Taiwan is even "stronger" after the invasion of Ukraine. 

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Growing pressure from within the government from the Green party and the FDP, and from the CDU in the Opposition party, for Chancellor Scholz of the Social Democrats to allow Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine to stall Russian advances. That could lead to a return to peace talks and a settlement is also the idea behind additional military support to Ukraine. Western powers also seek to prevent any further losses on the Ukrainian side and show support after attacks on its electricity infrastructure left most of Ukraine in the dark.

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Extreme German dependence on Russian oil and gas that happened under the administration of Angela Merkel and the high oil prices today from a a lack of development of alternative renewable energy resources created the situation that provided the financing for Russia's war in Ukraine. This is now unwinding as the European Union and the US set a price cap of $60 for Russian oil. This cap will in future reflect the cost of production of oil in Russia among other factors, and the lower demand for fossil fuels as renewable energy production is accelerated quickly, and the inflation fighting efforts of the US central bank. Gradually the mechanisms and environment is being created for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

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US Defense Security Cooperation Agency in State Department approves sales of Javelin and Excalibur missile systems to India November 19 2025, at a price tag of about $95 million. This increases US military sales to India to over $20 billion. FOr India to get a good trade agreement with the US, the US government set two conditions - increase purchases of US products and stop funding Russian attacks on Ukraine by reverting to the situation in 2019 when India purchased about 4% of its oil from Russia. India's purchases of discounted oil from Russia are a recent development. Indian and Chinese refiners have cut purchases of Russian oil, according to recent reports in WSJ. The increasing arms purchases from the US is a development that has taken place throughout the Modi administration since 2014 cutting dependence on Russian supplies including India's building its own capacity for defense products.

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.

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This WSJ Editorial Board opinion says president Biden needs to get European partners to make key decisions at the G-7 meeting to support Ukraine.  On the level of support it says the US has contributed 42.7 billion euros in military and humanitarian assistance compared to only 27.2 billion euros from European Union countries, according to the Kiel Institute for World Economy. Cpuld the EU do more? Russia continues to keep frontline nations such as Estonia and Lithuania on edge. The NATO support force has only 40,000 allied soldiers- more like a tripwire defense and clearly inadequate says WSJ. This needs to expand to a significant force. Separately from this NATO's Stoltenberg has announced that the NATO Response Force will now be expanded to 300,000. Mr. Erdogan needs to be persuaded to let Finland and Sweden join NATO to strengthen Baltic area defenses. WSJ says Erdogan is facing a tough election in 2023 and is objecting not because Turkish Kurds pose a threat at this time but to rouse nationalist sentiment for the election. WSJ Editorial does not mention what is critical for Ukraine's people, the refugees of women and children to return home and live normal lives - the stopping of missile attacks on civilian population and buildings. Separately Mr. Biden has announced that he will be sending Advanced Missile Defense Systems to Ukraine. Germany is sending an IRIS missile defense system that covers a space of 40 square miles enough to defend cities like Kviv and Lviv, Kharkiv. Here the question is how soon as this needs to be taken up immediately to protect the lives of the civilians caught up in this war, the women and children of Ukraine. Some are returning to their homes in Kviv, Kharkiv, other cities, that are already damaged, and are facing more missile attacks. This is the most difficult aspect of the war and hope can only return when this is prevented. It would also set the beginning conditions for the end of the war by removing this element of the war for the people of Ukraine and their homes and lives.   ...

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After the pandemic a step forward to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine Russia relations. Merkel and Macron supported the peace effort and Russia Ukraine are beginning to put the conflict bahind. That started with the eastern regions of Ukraine that are more Russian speaking forming their own government. Russia after two invasions in the last 200 years is sensitive to NATO expansion leading to its support for the Russian speaking region of eastern Ukraine.

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French reporters send this report from Krasnohovirka trenches in the winter war in Ukraine's east. See the accompanying report from German reporters from a tank unit in the east in Bakhmut Soledar area to get a feel for what is happening in the winter war in Ukraine.

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President Biden has praise for William Burns for good intelligence delivered with honesty and integrity on China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and emerging technologies. For three decades Burns has served in the US Foreign Service and performed work that is similar to that of another veteran diplomat Mr. Jaishankar of India. America turned to Burns to end the war in Afghanistan under president Biden, and now faces the Ukraine conflict with "clear straightforward analysis" given to the president, in the words Biden used for Bill Burns.

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As it makes gains in the Kursk region Russia appears hesitant at this moment to sign on to the ceasefire deal the US and Ukraine agreed to this week. Kursk was part of Russia before the current war. It was also here that the Germans were defeated in 1943 after the Battle of Stalingrad (now called Volgograd). The war now has nationalist overtones for Russia making it more complicated than the earlier invasion of Ukraine, and requiring both patience and persistence to reach a lasting settlement for all sides.