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During the presidential debates Donald Trump was asked about his proposal for a 45% tariff on imports from China to the U.S.. Trump's response was "if they don't behave." he would use this as a negotiating tactic against China. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas responded by reminding viewers of the high tariffs under Smoot-Hawley legislation that were one of the factors that created the Great Depression in the 1930's. Economist and former Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression, and says "it was highly counterproductive, it lengthened and deepened the Great Depression." Economist Peter Petri of Brandeis University in his study cited in this article, says that the tit for tat that starts with such a move could eventually cost the U.S. 1 million jobs. It might fix one problem the one of imbalanced trade with China his figures show, and create another huge problem the loss of markets for U.S. goods all over the world. Overall a 45% tariff would reduce U.S. merchandise imports by $383 billion and reduce U.S. merchandise exports by $658 billion, says Petri. Gordon Hanson, economist at the University of California, San Diego, who has actually shown how trade has affected different counties in the U.S., leaving some dependent on government assistance. Hanson sees this tariff as counterproductive, it makes the U.S. more self-sufficient but hurts U.S. exporters, would significantly hurt the tech boom, and reduce America's standard of living. The problem is that everybody can get into this in a tit for tat. France did this even before the Smoot Harley Act of 1938 was passed in 1930 with 60% increase in tariff on individual items, by higher tariff legislation in 1928. Close allies Canada followed quickly after Smoot Hawley increasing its tariffs, so did Great Britain. Unemployment went up significantly after 1931, worsened by weak banks and lack of support from the Federal Reserve. Trade with Mexico would come to a halt Petri shows, and the result would be more Mexicans trying to cross the border turning a relatively non existent problem of immigration in 2015 -with Mexicans preferring to remain home and net immigration dropping significantly following the 2008 financial crisis and the strict Obama policy of deporting illegal immigrants- into a real one. Trump says its just a threat, but it is likely to lead to a tit for tat response by China, then by U.S. allies, other trading partners. Consider that president Herbert Hoover opposed the Smoot Hawley bill for raising tariffs on industrial goods, and only proposed adifferent legislation reducing tariffs on industrial goods and increasing the tariffs on agricultural goods to give relief to American farmers. Politics intervened as Smoot from Utah and Hawley from Oregon, from mountain and agricultural states with a lack of understanding of how the international trading system works but as heads of two influential commmittes, the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee, let politics overrride and pushed their legislation through Congress. In 1932 Smoot and Hawley were defeated for reelection, but the damage had been done, and promises of better conditions for workers and farmers never kept. A significant reason for the U.S. standard of living is that it is a leader in the global trading system. Even in 1945 and the years following the end of the war tariffs were higher in Britain and other countries. In return for this leadership the U.S. enjoys the advantages of the dollar being the main global currency, and the advantages of a world leading technological sector that has large global markets. Hanson and Autor have pointed out how imbalanced trade has hurt some counties in the U.S. This is a very real problem for workers in the manufacturing sector, as shown by elections in the midwestern states, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and other parts of the country. The problem is compounded by the tech sector looking out for itself, the financial sector looking out for itself, and forgetting that we are all in the same boat. And that includes the Chinese who are in the same boat. China is doing a major shift in policy towards a consumer driven economy, and this needs to be accelerated for the benefit of ordinary Chinese. This makes the policy of a 45% tariff by the U.S. doubly unproductive because it hopes to add urgency to the problem of the U.S. trade deficit and manufacturing workers, but takes an approach that risks ending up damaging the global trading system by setting in motion a process that no one controls or can foresee the destination....

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Republican majority in the House and large number of seat in the Senate, will make it difficult to get approval of three items for improved Russian-US relations. The items are: an arms control treaty to reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections, a civilian nuclear agreement for greater cooperation, and getting Russia admitted into the World Trade Organization. It might even rupture the reset policy of the Obama administration and stifle progress made so far.

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Mr. Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US at Columbia, South Carolina, says this report in WSJ. A universal tariff of this type is similar to Herbert Hoover's Smoot Hawley that brought on the Great Depression in the 1930's in outright beggar thy neighbor policies which don't work, says WSJ. This opinion describes the impact of such a tariff in failing to reverse the trade deficit which is $951 billion in 2022, but fails to point to the lack of effectiveness of tariffs alone in bringing back American manufacturing jobs. As president Biden has pointed out the Trump administration made much talk about returning American jobs but did not accomplish much for American manufacturing to lead the world in the way the Biden administration has done. To do this the Biden administration passed laws to fund a entire new electric car industry, renewable energy industry, and promoting other industries in advanced technologies, including aerospace, to bring back America's leadership in manufacturing of most of the twentieth century with a bold vision for the future. Mr. Trump lacks the experience on this issue and is simply playing the rhetoric to his base without any plan to deliver the goods to sections of the American public that have already suffered the most from decades of neglect of manufacturing by Republicans going back to Reagan and Bush, Democrats Clinton and Obama. ...

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This report in the Hindusthan Times on president Trump's 25% steel tariff on steel imports focuses on the trade deficit with China of $375 billion in 2017. It shows the trade deficit for the month of February 2018 citing data from China as growing rapidly in 2018 over the prior year by 45%, even as imports went up only by 6.3%. In looking at coverage in the U.S. on this topic many of the reports in the Washington Post and the New York Times were critical of the tariff without mentioning the size of the trade surplus of China. Hardly any reports mentioned the growth by 45% in the February 2018 trade surplus of China with the U.S. over the prior year.  This report cites a tweet by president Trump that China was asked to come up with a plan to reduce its trade surplus by $1 billion in 2018, only 0.27% of the trade surplus, which looks strange as this would do little to change the trading relationship except that it puts pressure on China to change the direction of the surplus that is growing because of the strengthening dollar and the growth in the U.S.  This suggests that even with the 25% steel tariff America's basic problem of the imbalance in trading relationship with China will continue.  The headlines critical of Trump for starting a trade war therefore look strange in this context and show how little this subject is understood or debated with facts. Even today textbook economics principles are cited after two decades of hollowing out of industry in the midwestern U.S. and in Ontario, Canada. This led to public sentiment shift electing a liberal Justin Trudeau in Canada, and an outsider real estate businessman Donald Trump in the U.S.  For Democrats in the U.S. the support of marginal additional gains in trade with president Obama's push for another free trade agreement in the TPP may have cost them theiir working class base and the election.   ...

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75 years after independence a trustee of the Sabarmati Ashram, Mr. Kartikeya Sarabhai, asks visiting British prime minister Boris Johnson for help in building the Gandhi archives. Most of the repository of documents held by the Sabarmati Ashram Trust are from Mohandas Gandhi's struggle for Swaraj in India, very little is from Britain such as documents in the British parliamentary and Foreign Office archives, and other British archives. This would help the Ashram Museum to give a more complete picture of what happened during the struggle for Swaraj or self-rule. That this request is being made only now is because of the neglect into which both Britain and India have left the state of trade, economic and cultural relations with India. The visit of Mr. Modi to the UK for the Glasgow summit and Mr. Johnson's visit to Gandhi Ashram on the Sabarmati river, comes from a realization that a lot needs to be done to catch up. The sheer enthusiasm of Mr. Johnson shows how significantly Britain, Europe and the US have changed in their understanding of the aspirations and hopes of the Indian people, as one people with aspirations for development and modernization. ...

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In a sign that the trade negotiations with China are stalled even as negotiators met for talks, president Trump said China was slowing talks down in the hope of talking to ELizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, Democratic candidates for the elections in the U.S. in 2020.  President Trump also said China has not come through the way it said on agricultural imports from the U.S. He tweeted "that is the problem with China they just don't come through." Mr. Trump also took credit for the slowing down of China's economy from the tariffs war. Mr. Trump took credit for China's weakening economy, making some companies leave, the tariffs he has imposed on $250 billion of Chinese products causing enormous pressure. Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped by 8.5% and exports to other countries up slightly. China's infrastructure investments are cushioning part of the shock from the tariffs war. No major stimulus is planned in China because it would worsen the debt already accumulated after the over stimulus conducted in response to the financial crisis of 2009. Both sides are willing to wait it out.   ...

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The expectations from the G20 summit in London which ends April 2, 2009, have been toned down both by the Obama administration and by Gordon Brown's government. It has proved quite difficult to get agreement on expanding the stimulus. With Germany and France and some other European governments not going along with President Obama. Also difficult is the task of getting action from these G20 summits, as a lot of meetings have to be held, and agreement has to be reached between many nations, compared to the old G7 which could meet in the White House library. And the local situation in each country is different, with different pressing priorities at home. The long term structural changes, and global regulatory reform, are changes that require more time, more consensus. And some issues such as larger developing country role in governance is not a priority for the large European countries and the USA, which raises questions about the role of the IMF, and the manner in which assistance is adminstered through the IMF. That role exacerbated the crisis in S. Korea during the Asian banking crisis. See the link. As a result there is considerable apprehension about seeking IMF assistance among developing countries. This covers Eastern Europe and other developing countries....

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The Irish far economy is vulnerable and the Irish farmer at risk following Brexit. Rivals to prime minister Varadkar in the coming election say he has the M50 mentality, referring to the beltway around Dublin, not thinking enough of the Irish farm economy. A hard Brexit would have cut the Irish growth to 0.7% under Theresa May and now to 3.7% under Boris Johnson from the 6% for 2019.  This is happening as the Irish farmer depends on Britain for exports as he has for seven centuries.  Britain is the biggest importer of agricultural products from Ireland. Sinn Fein is gaining ground in this urban-rural divide with 25%, and so is Centre right Fiana Fail at 24%, with 20% for the current prime minister's party, in recent polls. Irish economy also depends on imports from Britain for machinery and trade agreement with Britain is crucial for Ireland now that Brexit has happened. All along Ireland's coast on the Atlantic Ocean for farmers this is a worrisome situation. ...

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India's currency is one of the hardest hit in emerging markets. India's rupee dropped by about 14% in 2018. India increased import duties by about 10% on airconditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and other categories for a total of $11.8 billion in imports in fiscal year ending in March.

India sees the possibility that with rising trade tensions between China and the U.S., president Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, some of these Chinese exports to the U.S. could be dumped into the Indian market. The Federation of Indian Export Organizations sees the move in a positive light that it would help the rupee, increase local manufacturing and lead to foreign investments. India's current account deficit increased to 1.9% in the year ended March 31, 2018, from 0.6% a year earlier.

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Of 20 pictures of Shinzo Abe shown in this photo gallery in the WSJ the ones by Kashiyama of Abe on his knees at Iwo Jima recovering remains from the battle in World War II, and by Numata of a safety drill with children in Chiba perfecture where he is seen seated on the ground peeking through metal bars with children, are a must see. Shinzo Abe who led Japan through the 2000-2020 period came from a politically privileged family, but went much beyond that- building relationships with leaders such as Narendra Modi in India and nurturing the India relationship in an act of immense foresight, encouraging an independent minded policy yet working with the US, and defending Japan's position in Asia yet continuing to foster the trade relationship with China and seeking better relations with Russia.  Leaders of US, EU, Germany, France, India, Russia and China, personally felt the loss of Abe in the words they chose to describe the loss. India declared a day of national mourning, showing how far Abe had carried Japan's relationship with India and the number of visits he made to India. ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's role as backup lender increased with the pandemic. The U.S. central bank lent half a trillion dollars to counterparts overseas representing most of the emergency lending at the time in 2020. It eased a dollar shortage globally, helped stop a market selloff, and continues to support global markets in 2020. The Fed is now the global source of dollar funding, which builds the role of the U.S. currency a the dominant currency. Countries that benefit from the Fed are Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Britain, Japan and European Union countries. On March 31 the Fed launched a program that let 170 central banks around the world borrow dollars against their holdings of U.S. Treasurys adding confidence.  To understand the dollar's dominant role about 88% of 6.6 trillion dollars in currency trades taking place daily involve dollars according to BIS. By end of 2019 U.S. dollar denominated debt securities and cross border loans reached about $27 trillion up from about $17 trillion in 2010. All the talk of having another reserve currency by other central banks has not happened. ...

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Relations between Germany and the U.S. improve in the last year of the Obama administration. The low point is the NSA spying scandal. By 2015 with the Ukraine crisis and the refugee crisis, the U.S. and Germany develop closer relations. In April 2016 U.S. president Obama visits the Hannover trade fair and meets German chancellor Merkel, following a trip to Britian where he expresses support for Britain's membership in the EUropean Union. The U.S. general election campaign with less engagement of the U.S. in the world preferred by candidates Trump and Sanders, the Brexit vote in Britain, also creates a new environment and makes clear the need to support closer ties in an interconnected world.

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Minoru Yamasaki's 100 person firm sinks under heavy debts and unable to pay wages or unemployment insurance taxes, as businesss just dries up in the Middle East and in the USA. Minoru died in 1986 and Mr Ayoub is running the firm. He is now in the Middle East and not expected back. Yamasaki designed buildings on Wayne State campus and the World Trade Center buildings. The picture of Minoru in this article is of complete assurance and confidence!

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Indian PM Modi will take part in the swearing in of a new government in Maharashtra on December 5, 2024. Maharashtra and Gujarat with cities Mumbai and Ahmedabad were part of Bombay state in 1947 after independence. It was also the largest trade and industrial region of India. Today it is poised under the Modi government to deliver industrialization on a scale that matches that of China for a modern Vikshit Bharat over the next decade and to 2040. This is the real significance of this event which in some ways surpasses the US election in significance and the scale of transformation of the largest nation in the world.

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The yen is 34% stronger than the Korean won since mid 2008, hurting Japan's competitive edge. This affects exporters like Toyota which sees annual profit reduced by $390 million or 35 billion yen for every one yen appreciation against the dollar. The dollar now trades at 88 yen over 30% stronger than the precrisis level in 2008. So how does the new Japanese government see this. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and the Bank of Japan have made comments suggesting that they favor a stronger yen, making imports cheaper to help spark a rebound in consumer spending missing in Japan since the 1980's. This would reduce the dependence on exports for growth, something that severely hurt Japan and Germany when the world economy took a dive late last year in the global financial crisis.

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China's effort to close small inefficient steel mills by reducing national taxes and sending more taxes to the regional level which could be used to create jobs for laid off steel workers. This would lead to consolidation in the CHinese steel industry and lead to higher prices for steel for appliance makers and auto makers, as steel makers in Europe and North America keep down supply. It would also lead to stronger negotiation for ironore prices as the small steel mills often struck their own deals. It would also reduce the flood of excess Chinese steel and reduce trade complaints filed in Europe.

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The rise of Japan was a major challenge for president Reagan in the 1980's in the way president Trump is confronting the rise of China. The Reagan administration obtained the concessions it needed from Japan. The negotiator for the U.S. side during the Reagan years - Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer is using his experience in winning concessions from Japan in his role as top trade negotiator with China.  As the WSJ points out Japan ceased to be a threat to the U.S. faster than anyone thought possible. 

But there is one problem even if this happens the warning is that the imbalances with Japan simply transferred over time to China. The warning is for America's tendency to spend money it does not have, and for how long.

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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A unanimous vote of the Chinese Communist Party Congress now puts "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era" into the Chinese Constitution. As the 19th Party Congress ends Xi Jinping joins two other leaders of the Communist Party Mao  Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, who were so honored. It also appears that unlike previous leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping is concentrating authority and direction for China. This Congress marks the end of Xi's second five year term as party general secretary.  Under Hu Jintao there were efforts by some Communist leaders to create new power bases. This period ended with Xi Jinping bringing a clear direction and authority under the Communist Party. This has led to China taking on a leadership role in the world economy and global political affairs after the election of Trump in the U.S. in 2017. The management of the economy also has provided a soft landing after threats of disruptions in trade relations with the U.S. ...

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Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

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Bennhold and Erlanger of the NYT point out that prime minister Theresa May has remained vague about the nature of the negotiations for Brexit. The snap election increases the confusion with a hung parliament and no party getting a majority. The result can be seen as sending mixed signals. The British public by supporting parties such as Labor, SNP and Liberal Democrats with over 50% of the vote, is saying that it is not sure about Brexit being a priority for Britain, given the uncertainty for the British economy and other pressing problems. All this had been lost in the debate about hard and soft Brexit, in the political rhetoric taken up by Ms May when the basic questions about Brexit have not gone away. Here Erlanger and Bennhold take leaders back to these questions posed by former finance minister George Osborne. Osborne as Editor of The Evening Standard asked readers 10 questions- How is withdrawal going to increase trade when you leave the biggest free trading bloc in the world? How can withdrawal help London as the financial capital of the world? How is migraton going to be tackled when its not clear which business will have its labor supply restricted or curtailed. For these reasons- apart from many others about the whole process of withdrawal and the cost to Britain- the whole idea of Brexit appears to have not been thoroughly thought through. As a result the referendum vote may be seen in Europe as a temporary reflection of British opinion at that point of time, and subject to change over time.   ...

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Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

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The leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will meet at a 2 day summit in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China, on April 27, 2018.  The meeting is significant because for the first time the 2 leaders will meet on a one on one basis for a significant part of the time without aides to get a better understanding of each other, and a get a sense of how to establish a good relationship between the 2 countries. Ma Jiali of the China Reform Forum, a think tank affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School says a better relationship would serve China's interests for regional calm, so that China can focus on internal issues of tackling poverty in the interior of China, tackle economic issues arising from a difficult trading relationship with the U.S. including the tariffs of the Trump administration.  China's leadership have not anticipated the decisions made by president Trump and the Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to take a strong stand on correcting an imbalance in trade that leads to about $1 billion in trade deficit each day for the U.S. with China. Previous administrations in the U.S. have not taken action. Also at issue in the U.S. China relationship is for the first time transfer of technology for "Made in China 2025." China's earlier advances were made with a free flow of technology from the U.S. and Europe.  The last time the two leaders met was in 2014. This time the issues of border relations in the Himalayas, and the relations with China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region, the growing relationship between Australia, U.S., India and Japan, are seen in a different light with the strong disagreements on trade relations with the U.S.  China sees a need for improving relations with India. Prime Minister Modi faces new elections in 2019 and the need to focus on infrastructure and development to win a second term in office for the ruling BJP Party.  A reduction in tensions serves the interest of both countries and leaders.   ...

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The Nobel prize in economics was created in 1968 by the Swedish central bank and was not one of the original Nobels. The latest recipient is Paul Krugman of Princeton University, who also writes a column in the New York Times op-ed pages since 1999 and has been a critic of President Bush's policies. He is a student of Jagdish Bhagwati who is wellknown for his work on international trade. Krugman won for his work on international trade theory where he came up with more realistic models of what goes on in international trade compared to the traditional comparitive advantage model where each country produced what it was good at. Krugmanexplained why worldwide trade was dominated by a few countries that were similiar to each other, and why a country may import the same kind of goods that it exported. He also explained under what conditions trade would lead to centralization or decentralization of populations. He has done work in international monetary policy and theory for his dissertation as well as some of his more recent academic research and teaches a course on this subject and the international liquidity crises at Princeton. Krugman compared his wnning of the Nobel to Joseph Stiglitz winning in 2001 after which Stiglitz did not get an easy time from critics of his economic ideas, especially when he was critical of the handling of the Asian and Latin American liquidity crises by Clinton's Treasury Secretary Rubin and Treasury Secretary Sommers. At the time Kenneth Rogoff at the IMF was very critical of Stiglitz. Jagdish Bhagwati at Columbia University described Prugman's winning as the next best thing to his winning the prize. Both Bhagwati and Krugma have worked tirelessly Bhagwati for international trade and Krugman for traditional bread and butter issues for the working class espoused by the Democratic party....