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A sharp drop of over 6 points. 57.9 in March 2025 from 64.7 in Feb. the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment shows the effects of the uncertainty generated in tackling fentanyl flows by imposing tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China. And the result of the uncertainty from reciprocal tariffs imposed to correct the loss of manufacturing in the US as a result of unfair trade by China, EU, Canada and Mexico. Some of this comes from the unfair coverage in the press and internet that these tariffs are economic tariffs to gain advantage when they are designed to correct huge trade imbalances that other countries had no incentive to correct when previous administrations, corporations and America's Ivy League economists- stuck to textbook economics divorced from reality- turned their back on the workers and communities in the Nation whose communities were destroyed with the loss of factories and plants shipped overseas. ...

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Even after strong action on tariffs to level the playing field and taking other actions on immigration enforcement on April 25, 2025, US president DJT still has 45% approval rating down from 52% when taking office. Reaching tariff deals with many important nations over the next 3 months will increase DJT approval ratings. The stock markets are down about 10% after strong tariffs action which will take time to yield results by 2026. After many agreements are reached the face of world trade will have changed and manufacturing will be done in the US similar to its role in the mid 20th century, bringing with it jobs and higher wages and better communities for people to live in.

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With China slowing down imports of US agricultural products farmers in the US may be given priority for assistance from the DJT administration, including the use of the funds from tariffs on incoming goods.

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Japan and South Korea which rely on the U.S. for defense offered only a mild response to president Trump's announcement of  25% tariff on steel imports. Australia also defended free trade but offered no response to the U.S. duties on Australian steel and aluminium exports to the U.S. of $388 million.  There was no criticism of Mr. Trump. 

Japan's prime minister Abe talked to Trudeau of Canada as a 11 nation group pushes ahead with the TPP or Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, and are set to sign the agreement in Chile this week, on  March 8, 2018.

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Tariffs policy is part of a renegotiation the US is conducting with China similar to that started with Japan by Lighthizer in the Reagan era as Deputy Trade Representative. It does not in any way have anything to do with the tariffs of Herbert Hoover in 1930 that gave tariffs a bad meaning. This is because tariffs were reduced since Harry Truman's efforts in 1945 by 2017 to 1.47% on average on total imported goods into the US and world trade makes up 63% of world GDP, so large is world trade today. What are Lighthizer- DJT tariffs trying to accomplish? As with Japan in the 1960-1970's it is intended to reverse the trends for China in 2000-2017 that allowed it to game the world trading system to gain an unfair advantage by dumping specific products into the US destroying American manufacturing and communities dependent on it. The US tariffs on Chinese goods proposed in 2024 by former USTR Robert Lighthizer come at a time when US tariffs are in 2023 only about 2.2% of all imported goods, $33 billion on 2333 billion of imported goods. In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China. By the time the first tariffs were taken up by the DJT administration in 2017 the total tariffs the US had imposed on imported goods were down to an all time low of 1.47% of imported goods value, $33 billion out of $2333 billion in total imported goods. Compared to the 29-40% under Hoover Act of 1930 raised to 60%.  Today world trade makes up 62% of world GDP, in 1930 it made up 9% of World GDP.  In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China.   ...

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It is not that this or that economic thinking is right, what is right is scientific observation of how "We the People" perform under different economic foundations and coming up with what works without ideology. This report writes about Pettis and Lighthizer, who have made observations and economic advice about reindustrialization through judicious use of tariffs. The difference between Biden/Harris/ Walz and Trump/Vance in 2024 is that Biden has already put in place a massive infrastructure and American manufacturing plan with government assistance to industry where nothing comparable except tariffs was done in the four years of the Trump administration. Biden/Harris plan to use tariffs selectively to promote reindustrialization while also giving other countries and competitors opportunities to compete- a win-win for the World Economy. The former president's blanket tariffs on all products without direct financial support to American manufacturing and consumers is thus not based on a combination of scientific observation and common sense as reindustrialization requires a calibrated common sense approach to the situation the US faces. ...

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Mexican president Sheinbaum in a conversation with Trump says all caravans have already been stopped inside Mexico. The two presidents discussed the flow of drugs, migration and closing the border. DJT called the conversation "wonderful" and "very productive."

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A key figure in approval ratings is 46% with DJT getting 46% approval for the economy and on a range of issues including immigration. On tariffs the situation is steadily improving with new trade agreements with Japan, the EU, South Korea that were announced after or just when this WSJ poll was taken on July 20. Among Republicans 88% support the president and 66% strongly support him which says this report means more of them would turn out to vote. More significant is that the optimistic rating of the economy went up by 11 percentage points from April 2025 to 46% in July 2025. This is also the view of Fed chairman Powell. Each step of the way as DJT tariff actions result in tangible improvements in trade relations for the US and result in concrete real world trade agreements for a level playing field in world trade, the president's actions are seen in a different light. The first Trade Agreement with the UK, then with Japan and now quite possibly with the European Union. All this within 6 months of the president acting in February 2025. A major role played also by Bessent, Greer, Luttnick and others in the cabinet of ministers. This lifts perceptions of the president in the eyes of the American people in handling the economy, business and world trade, and protecting the interests of America's farmers, and rural communities. ...

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GE Vernova turbine maker Ford Motor and Dollar General retail replace Apple Tesla Google in stock market growth in June 2025. This is a healthy sign for the US economy.

Lower growth of 0.8% in the first two quarters was expected as the US recalibrates its position in the world economy as a manufacturing powerhouse. Inflation is moderate even with tariffs says Fed chairman Powell -close to 2.4-2.8 percent. Unemployment is low, with no layoffs and companies waiting to invest with the 3B Big Bold Beautiful Tax Cuts Bill provisions on expensing investments 100 percent provision. The attention is not on tariffs as agreements with UK will be followed by EU and Japan. Attention is on the Tax Cuts Bill compromise of Senate and House versions.

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Greg Ip says inflation will be moderate about 2.3% instead of 2% as tariffs will probably be use as a negotiating method and tariffs at 20% with 60% tariff as a negotiating tactic by Trump.  Greg Ip says as important than inflation and GDP are the workers displaced and with loss of income through surge in imports and loss of manufacturing in the US. 

Robert Lighthizer, who was trade ambassador in Trump’s first term and is likely to return to manage trade says-

“Globalization produces disruption, dislocation, and destruction. Conservatives by contrast seek to defend traditional values and institutions, preserve the social fabric, and ensure the conditions for families and communities to flourish.”

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India, Brazil and South Africa as members of BRIC's means that the US position has support within BRIC's with nuances such as words on multipolarity of institutions. India has allowed trade to be done in rupees with Russia as trade is heavily imbalanced with Russia- India exports $4.1 billion to Russia and imports oil and gas worth $61 billion. Russia gets Rupees for the oil and invests it in the Indian equity markets and bonds.

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Brexit is now seen as based on some mistaken ideas that were presented to the public without much thought or seriousness. One of these ideas is that Britain would simply be free to sign its own trade deals with other countries. One such deal would be with a 1.3 billion people rapidly expanding economy like India. Yet India - Britain trade is very small today and is vastly overshadowed by EU - India trade relations. In fact the European Union is India's largest trade partner. By removing non tariff barriers and tariffs India's economy would expand by 1.3 % annually adding $25 billion to India's GDP each year, Ifo research shows. The EU would see 0.14% growth in GDP, a gain of 21 billion euros annually. Germany would boost its automotive and machine tools industries, and India its textile and services industries.  Many British companies manufacture in India and are not exporters. This situation is not likely to suddenly change with Britain able to strike its own trade deals. ...

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DJT raises issue of NATO countries Turkey Hungary and Slovakia others buying Russian oil and gas + EU trade with China while asking for US help. Britain is a NATO country expanding trade with China while being strident about Russia. Germany has over two decades built economic relations with China through a period of Russian attacks on Ukraine including the Scholz administration approving China's stake in the port of Hamburg. India has been singled out by the EU and US, and by DJT with high tariffs while Britain and Germany carry on expanding trade with China. DJT believes China's support has emboldened Russia in its policy in Ukraine including pausing peace negotiations.

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This leading investment bank G. Sachs Jan Hatzius forecast for the US economy is for inflation to go down further from 2.8% in December 2025 to 2.4%. The forecast is at 2.5% growth for 2025 for US economy under a DJT administration including impact of tariffs on China imports of 20%, selective tariffs on EU imports, not an additional 10% tariff across the board.

Net Immigration is forecast at 750,000. This is lower than what it was in the last 4 years with it's surges in some years. The remigration deportation plan will have some impact on growth yet the growth forecast will not be affected to a large extent. Strong real disposable income growth of 3.3% and the wealth and income effect will support spending growth in 2025, says this forecast by G. Sachs investment bank's Jan Hatzius.

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The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...