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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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Lt. Gen John Kelly loses his son Robert in Afghanistan and talks about the immense burdens facing military families. Robert is out on patrol duty in a mine filled area of Afghanistan's Sangin district. Only 1% of the population serves in the military. And Kelly says his is only one of 5500 American families that have lost a child in this war. There is a sense among military families that the war and these military families have been forgotten. One Marine Corps general wrote to Kelly that service to and sacrifice for the country has become a legacy affair for a small number of military families. Before the midterm Congressional elections only 2% of the people rated Afghanistan as a top issue and hardly any candidates mentioned this issue. Tom Brokaw, a well known anchor of NBC News, wrote in a major daily that the war and the sacrifices have been forgotten in the election and hardly discussed. Adm. Mike Mullen went so far as to say that he worries that we could wake up one day and that the American people will no longer know us and we won't know them....

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The controversy surounding Greece's purchase of submarines from Germany costing about 1 billion euros. This at a time when public pensions are being reduced by 5%. A vice admiral of the Greek navy resigned in protest citing this reason, and it is reported that the deals are politically motivated, with the Greek deputy prime minister saying that he feels "national shame" about the decision to buy the submarines. Reports question whether the German and French effort to rescue Greece involves efforts to continue military sales to Greece. Chancellor Merkel denies this. In a visit to Athens Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan said that both Greece and Turkey do not need fighter planes and submarines, and need to reduce military spending to help build their economic future.

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New details emerge on how India informed Pakistan that only terrorist bases were targets not the Pakistan military. India's Foereign Minister Jaishankar says this was to make clear that only terrorist bases would be struck in response to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on tourists. This was to be careful so that deescalatory steps could be taken. When Pakistan chose to attack military targets in India India did the same on military targets and air defense systems in Pakistan were taken out. At that point India insisted that for a stop to the war Pakistan's general would call India's general to end the war, which is what happened. Jaishankar made it clear that US Marco Rubio of JD Vance complied with India's request to the US that only after the Pakistan general called the Indian general would the conflict be stopped as India had not targeted Pakistan military.

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Admiral Mullen and General Petraeus have grown impatient with Pakistan's and the ISI's support for the Haqqani network, a Taliban ally that works as a proxy for Pakistan's military and intelligence services. Recent disclosure of Pakistan's military and civilian leadership's effort at a Kabul meeting to have the Afghanistan government distance itself from the U.S. have added to concerns. The appointment of Gen. Petraeus to lead the CIA, including direction of the drone campaign, is expected to continue the tension in the relationship.

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Joseph Nye, Jr. calls for a more patient approach from the Americans with Prime Minister Hatoyama of Japan on the Okinawa military base issue. He says Hatoyama faces pressure from within his own coalition and from Okinawans concerned about their future.

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This WSJ Editorial Board view of the situation in eastern Ukraine in the Donbas region is that Russian forces aim to secure the whole southern region including port of Odessa and its link with global commerce. It says Russia seeks to also control Moldova, close to Romania, and would then be a threat to other NATO countries with significant Russian population. It calls for a vigorous program of military aid to Ukraine to prevent such a situation from happening before some sort of ceasefire takes place.

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Growing pressure from within the government from the Green party and the FDP, and from the CDU in the Opposition party, for Chancellor Scholz of the Social Democrats to allow Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine to stall Russian advances. That could lead to a return to peace talks and a settlement is also the idea behind additional military support to Ukraine. Western powers also seek to prevent any further losses on the Ukrainian side and show support after attacks on its electricity infrastructure left most of Ukraine in the dark.

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This WSJ Editorial Board article appeared on Feb. 28, and says that the world owes a great debt to the heroic people of Ukraine. A too complacent Europe says WSJ, is now learning what it means to fight for freedom. It says Ukraine deserves more support with arms, the toughest sanctions, and global ostracism. It says Congress should approve the request this week for another $6.4 billion in humanitarian and military assistance. The stakes of the war are high, says WSJ, including for American interests.

 

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Myers documents how Russian policy changed drastically in only a few days after the Olympic games closed in Sochi, Russia, from working with the EU to military takeover of Crimea. It happened with Putin's preference for secrecy and having only a few inner circle of advisors, mostly from his KGB days, leaving the rest of the Putin administration unaware of what was happening and the risks being taken with a G-8 summit in Sochi approaching.

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OPLAN is the German defense plan draft by Lt. Gen. Andre Bodeman which was started after chancellor Schulz's Zeitenwende "epochal change" speech in 2022. After that speech Schulz created a plan for $100 billion euros for defense of Germany.The intent is to prepare to defend Europe in case of clash with Russia. It goes back to a different era the Cold War of the 1960's. To improve infrastructure Gemany now plans to spend 166 billion euros, of which 100 billion euros go to railways, to update essential infrastructure. The new Merz of CDU government with SPD's Pistorius as Defense Minister is a relatively strong coalition government which plans to spend 500 billion euros for defense and upgrade the Bundeswehr for military readiness.

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One U.S. military official describes Boko Haram insurgency as similiar to where Islamic State was 2 years ago. The U.S. military has stopped training Nigerian military units, because of corruption, human rights abuses by soldiers, and infiltration of the Nigerian military by Boko Haram. Another story in the NYT describes the tensions in Nigeria as a former military ruler runs for president on a platform of restoring law and order. Boroko Haram militants are active in the Muslim north and the Nigerian military riddlled with corruption and lack of proper equipment and training has failed to control the militants. Nigeria has a long history of corruption in government and the current government of Jonathan faces the same problems, with oil revenues not going into development of the country- most Nigerians cannot depend on the electrical grid, and infrastructure is in bad shape.

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Gerald Seib points out that the choice between the Islamists and the military has always been a false one. The young people who are a large part of the population in the Middle East and their hopes for a better future are left out in this choice. The young protesters were the main force behind the ouster of Mubarak. These young people have to be brought into the political process for Egypt to move forward.

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Thailand's military rulers decide to impeach former prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, for use of state funds for her large rice subsidy program. Thailand remains divided between provincial leaders and farmers in the north of the country and the Bangkok regions. The army stepped in in 2014 and has called for Shinawatra to be banned from politics for 5 years. Economic growth was affected in 2014 by slowing growth in China. The protests against Shinawatra also reduced economic activity. Economic growth is now almost zero.

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Pakistan prime minister Nawas Sharif's friendly overtures to India. The need for improved trade and economic relations with India to improve Pakistan's economy and fears that the military and intelligence services or extremist groups could torpedo these efforts.

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Key points emerging from Xi's 20th Party Congress for the Chinese Communist Party are shown here in the Indian Express including its attitude to India. The Jiang Zemin and Youth League factions are shown to have lost influence and Xi has his people in the Political Bureau and the Central Military Commission. GDP growth is no longer the priority to be replaced with more balanced development and reducing the wide disparity in wealth that developed in China over 3 decades of hyper growth. State control over  development becomes the preferred model.

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Finland makes the decision to join NATO on May 12, 2022. NATO's land. border will increase from 1215 kilometres or 745 miles to 2600 kilometres. Sweden is expected to join NATO in a paradigm shift as it has been neutral for 200 years. Once Finland joins Sweden would be alone in the Baltic if it did not join NATO. Both Finland and Sweden have integrated their defenses and built up defenses at a time when other European states had not invested in the military. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has welcomed FInland and Sweden joining NATO.

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Prime minister Netanyahu of Israel says he will call snap elections if secular and religious parties in his centre right alliance do not come together to form a new government. Likud lacks the 61 seats for a majority in parliament resulting in negotiations with other religious and secular parties that back Netanyahu. Mr. Lieberman one of the secular party leaders says the ultra orthodox must serve in the military with other Israelis.