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Iran's oil minister says Iran will return to its pre-sanctions production of 4 million barrels a day with the easing of sanctions, from its current level of 2.7 million barrels a day. OPEC keeps production at 30 million barrels a day for the group at its meeting in Vienna in December 2013.

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The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...

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After the secession of South Carolina in late December 1860, for a brief period New York city's governing body, the Common Council, considered secession to become an independent city state. Pro-independence position was because as an independent city state, similiar to the northern German port cities, New York could keep to itself the tax revenue of $56 million- tariffs on imported goods collected at ports- as two thirds of imports by value passed through New York. The state's merchant class was pro-south, especially as most of the cotton exports passed through New York. New York made 40 cents on every dollar that Europeans paid for cotton from the South. The money came from warehouse fees, shipping, insurance and profits. Cotton helped build most of the mercantile buildings in lower Manhattan and rows of upscale brownstones. Wall street businessmen and The New York Herald newspaper opposed Lincoln's election. The New York Daily News was edited by the mayor's brother, Benjamin Wood, and it warned working class whites about competing with emancipated black labor. New York financiers even threatened to stop buying federal bonds. At which point Horace Greeley, pro-Union publisher of the New York Tribune, urged the Treasury to sell bonds directly to individuals. What changed all this was the firing of the cannon at Fort Sumter on April 12, 1861. Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers gathered in a patriotic rally in Union Square on April 20. New York quickly declared its support for the Union alongside other Northern states that April. ...

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The Economist offers this exceptional account of how education makes a big difference in how two cities one hours train ride from London view exit from the European Union. Both have younger than average populations, are growing rapidly, and mostly white collar populations. Cambridge has one in two persons who have gone to university study, Peterbrough is predominantly a city of school leavers, one has many people who have studied till age 21, the other Peterborough where many people left school at age 16. Cambridge it shows is strongly pro-EU, Peterborough is euro skeptic. YouGov confirms the correlation with education of EU support, with the better educated graduates supporting EU membership 62% to 38%, less educated till age 16 43% supporting EU membership and 57% opposing. It says skills for a globalizing compettitive economy and the lack of these skills are creating two types of population with less and less room between them, not good for democracy, and something that will take decades of work to correct....

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Bernie Sanders launches his 2020 presidential campaign at Brooklyn College by sharing his personal story of parents who were immigrants from Germany during the Nazi period. His father made a living selling paint to hardware stores and the family struggled in the early years.  He tells students he lived only a short distance away growing up "in a three and half room rent controlled apartment, and going to quality public schools." Mr. Sanders is the top choice in the early primaries including New Hampshire, competing with former vice president Mr. Biden. His campaign raised $10 million in just two weeks at the beginning of the campaign. He is campaigning for Medicare for All, $15 minimum wage, tution free public college. With Mr. Corbyn leading the Labor party in Britain in a new direction, Mr. Sanders is leading the Democratic Party in a new direction, both supporting the pro-working class traditional policies of their parties for most of the twentieth century. ...

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BBC's Europe Editor Katya Adler talks to EU officials and gives this assessment of how the situation in Britain after the elections looks from the European Union. The elections in France with pro-EU Macron winning with a large majority, the increasing support for Angela Merkel in Germany, the drubbing for the Five Star Movement in Italy, all point to increasing confidence in the EU, and willingness to let Britain sort its mess out while the EU focusses on more pressing issues. Adler calls the first day of talks on Brexit a Mad Hatters Tea Party, showing how Britain is seen in the EU as having a huge complicated mess to sort out. British politicians are seen from the outside as having ruffled up the electorate on migration, the European Court of Justice and other issues, just to make their own points and for their own ends, not necessarily having the best interests of Britain in mind.

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The pro-independence party of Catalan president Arturo Mas called an election two years ahead of schedule in an effort to increase autonomy for Catalonia in relations with the central government of Spain. He failed in negotiations to reduce the tax burden for Catalonia in relations with the federal government in Madrid. Arturo Mas's party lost seats in the regional election, ending up with 50 seats compared to the 62 seats it held previously in the 135 seat regional parliament in Barcelona. Other pro independence parties gained seats. The left leaning Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party increased its seats from 10 to 21 seats. The Partido Popular of Spain's premier Rajoy won 19 seats, up one seat from the 18 it held earlier. There is considerable questioning inside Spain about whether this issue should be brought up at a time of 25% unemployment and negotiations with the EU for loans to restore the health of Spain's banking system.

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Mark Robinson Republican candidacy for Governor in North Carolina remains one of the strangest, some might call it bizarre, aspects of this year's election with a black candidate reportedly supporting pro-slavery positions. North Carolina has a large Black vote, a large vote in rural areas west of Raleigh/Durham which like in Michigan's west tend to vote Republican, and the suburbs around Raleigh/ Durham more midwestern in outlook, and a popular two term Democrat as Governor Roy Cooper who is a part of the Harris-Walz team.

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Medvedev appears to have little role in setting policy in Russia, even though he has presented a different view of liberal groups and showed interest in pluralistic democracy and free expression of opinion. Putin has expressed a very different view about liberal groups, as representing foreign interests in Russia. The media remains tightly controlled in Russia, and elections are determined in the Putin way. A mayor picked by Putin won the Sochi elections even without campaigning, as many opposition candidates were disqualified or discredited before the campaign. He won with 77% of the vote. In this way elections take place in Russia but are conducted in a way which makes it very difficult for the opposition parties, and keeps media television coverage heavily pro-government.

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The introduction of a tax on sugary drinks to fight a surging diabetes rate, setup of a universal social security system, unemployment insurance and tax reform by the Nieto administration in Mexico in 2013. Taxes on high income earners will increase from 30% to 32%, a capital gains tax of 10%, and closing of some corporate tax loopholes such as tax consolidation to offset losses in one subsidiary against gains at others, are part of the tax changes. The remarkable aspect of these changes is the Pacto de Mexico signed by the three major political parties, centre left and right, to provide Mexico a new competitiveness for the economy, eliminate monopolistic pricing, introduce testing of teachers in the education system, combat health risks such as diabetes, and the social reform of seting up a social security system that Mexico lacked. Nieto said in a televised address while being flanked by the leaders of three major parties- "the tax reform is a social reform." For the first time in decades Mexico is poised to compete in a global economy with a new spirit of change and renewal....

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Elections for 500 members of the lower house of parliament in Mexico and for 15 governorships. Lopez Obrador won the presidency in 2018 with a huge majority, 30 points ahead of the rivals from the PAN and PRI parties. Average of five recent polls show he is still popular after the pandemic and winning 40% of the vote followed by PRI at 18%, PAN at 17%.  Obrador has increased pensions for the elderly by using savings from other parts of the budget, and increased the minimum wage several times. He seeks to reverse a 2013 law that privatized parts of the oil and electricity sectors. Obrador plans a large refinery project and rail infrastructure projects if he wins a strong majority in the lower house, in addition to social spending that would help the informal economy which has suffered during the pandemic. Across LatinAmerica, in Peru and other places the shift is to social spending to support the informal sector and anticorruption efforts so that good governance supports infrastructure spending. ...

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Leonid Kravchuk is a Soviet era official who joined with Boris Yeltsin to support dissolution of the Soviet Union. He died at the age of 88 in May 2022. He is remembered for leading Ukraine to independence in 1991 with support of nationalists in western Ukraine and pro-Russian supporters in eastern Ukraine. Another reason he is remembered is for peaceful transition of power to his prime minister Mr. Kruchma in the 1994 election. He also dismantled Ukraine's large nuclear arsenal under pressure from Russia and the US. His failings were in letting corruption grow including the bankruptcy of the Black Sea Shipping Company, says DW.com. Ukraine had no experience in the democratic process. It has close ties with Poland which in the 17th and 18th century had some form of democratic process. Lviv is a short distance from Poland. Kravchuk was from a part of Ukraine that was once part of Poland. With a population of 52 million Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe. Its transition from the Soviet Union to a independent state was painful says DW.com with millions of people finding themselves living in poverty and the period being remembered as "kravchuchka." Since that period Ukraine has grown and was setting up new foundations for entry into the European Union.  ...

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About what sort of a leader Liz Truss will be the BBC's Nicholas Watt says it will be someone who cares, and will find a way to support the public with the cost of living crisis. Reports in the Guardian show she is likely to set up the freezing of energy bills at the current level of 1975 pounds with a 100 billion pound plan. That plan would involve commercial banks depositing cash in a state backed fund that would be repaid over 10-15 years. Of all the qualities seen in Truss the most is her adaptability and a sense of going with the groups that cares deeply about things. This is one reason why she supported the Brexiteers. A quality she shares with Boris Johnson is her affability, a sense of genuine concern for people, that has helped someone who was a Liberal Democrat, and had parents who were pro-Labor, and who was in Remain, easily act as someone who was always a Tory Brexiteer. One thing she brings from her father who is a Math professor is her passion for math says Watt, saying also that anyone going to 10 Downing Street to interview her needs to be ready for a tricky maths challenge. ...

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A former Merrill Lynch banker is shown by WSJ responsible for economic actions leading to economic meltdown in Lebanon. Lebanese currency is worth 2% in relation to the dollar and no state supplied electricity.  For most of the modern period since 1800 this part of the world has represented a place of tranquillity and rule of law. The story of the economic collapse of Lebanon as a result of unscruplous finance at the central bank leading to arrrest of Riad Salameh is told in WSJ. It acts as a reminder and warning that once tranquil places can be dislocated and turned upside down by allowing unscruplous financial dealings in the economic affairs of a Nation, putting too much trust in finance or finance professionals. Trust is easily subverted once placed by the People. It can happen in any part of the world.  It can happen in developed nations as happened during the 2009 financial crisis. A finance professional governor of the central bank of Sri Lanka raised borrowing costs with a unscruplous bond auction in 2005 leading to higher borrowing costs and bankrupting the country. This results in the familiar guardrails for democracy and rule of law collapsing in unpredictable ways leading to disaster.  ...

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Andrew Roth describes a situation in Russia where president Putin is more popular than the ruling party. The United Russia Party was shown having support of 45% in pre election polls. The election campaign used Putin posters and the slogan "the party of the president," to increase voter support.  Some voters see Putin working really hard to improve the economic situation. Samuel Greene, director of the Russia Institute at King's College, London, says that even after efforts to increase support United Russia Party has failed to generate voter enthusiasm. Voter turnout was low especially in Moscow and St Petersburg. The election result is seen by experts as a way to give Putin support to tackle the economic problems facing the country, and ensure stability. About 343 members of the parliament out of total 450 are from the United Russia Party. The budget shortfall of 3% is being met by the government  by using state funds, and one of the sovereign funds is likely to be exhausted in 2017. One of the options is to cut back on social entitlements, increase the pension age. Prime minister Medvedev has already said state pensions cannot be indexed because "we don't have the money right now." ...

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A new book by Levitsky and Ziblatt, two Harvard political science professors, has the alarming title "How Democracies Die." This book points out that the first line of defense against autocratic tactics by a president is for his own party to obstruct it. This has happened recently when the president of Sri Lanka's autocratic tendencies were checked by a leader of his own party Mr. Sirisena, who worked with the opposition leaders to defeat president Rajapaksa. The Republican party is the first line of defense, and the leaders have to put the country's interests first for this to happen. The authors make the point in the book that much more needs to happen in the U.S. than the reenergizing of Democrats- there has to be working together across party lines and bringing people together, enlightened liberals joining enlightened people in business, on the conservative side, and Christians.  Leonhardt says this period may just be a phase, but don't take that for granted. Be responsible, and safeguard our liberties.  ...

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A humorous story on how Lady Hale delivered the unanimous decision of the UK Supreme Court against the prorogation of parliament by prime minister Boris Johnson, with a pun on the word pro-rogue-ation. And some ideas on how this was received by all sides. The decision was not popular in Britain and was seen by the royals and people around Queen Elizabeth as bad advice given to the Queen by the prime minister. Much of the behaviour of Boris Johnson and adviser Dominic Cummings is based on polls showing them winning over Labour seats in northern England that voted for Brexit in a general election to give the Conservatives a majority. Labour leader McDonnell has said that they have miscalculated. Labour party continues to emphasize that the real issue before the country is failing infrastructure, inequalities, lack of opportunity, jobs and the economy, not leaving the European Union. Labour's strategy is to wait out the general election for a couple of months so that voters can judge from the actions the competence of the Boris Johnson government to run the country for 5 years. ...

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Tunisia's president Moncef Marzouki comments on the violent demonstrations in Arab countries after the anti-Islamic video in Sept. 2012. He says the violent demonstrations do not reflect the true feelings of the vast majority of Arab people. He says the Arab Spring is not pro or anti-western but focussed on social justice and democracy, and not even about religion when truly understood.

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The U.S. trade dispute with China takes a new turn after tit for tat tariffs, with the U.S. president Trump claiming that China was interfering in the U.S. midterm elections. This plays into the narrative in China that the U.S. does not want to see China's ascent as a global power. President Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer have singled out "Made In China 2025," China's plans for tech leadership as a serious issue for the U.S. President Trump made his claim in a speech at the United Nations, saying that he was "the first president ever to challenge China on trade."

Many of China's tariffs on U.S. exports are targeted at agricultural products such as soyabeans and corn in heavily pro-Trump states, and in rural areas where the Republican party has a significant base. 

 

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The European Union would accept extension of the deadline on Brexit of March 29, and a second referendum could take place. Theresa May could go over the heads of her squabbling MP's and call a second referendum or a general election, says this report in The Guardian. 

A British request for extension of the deadline is seen as inevitable because it is impossible to pass the necessary pre-Brexit legislation before March 29. Conditions could include a second referendum and allowing the UK government to appoint national parliamentarians for the EU parliament as EU elections are in late May 2019. Because there is no majority for a second referendum just yet, and because the only way to get support in parliament is to have in place the customs union rejected by far right Conservative MP's, extending the date is the only viable option.

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The more pro-European faction within prime minister Theresa May's Conservative Party is reluctant to push for a vote at this time to avoid what it sees as "political suicide"- a massively disruptive departure of Britain from the European Union without an agreement. This gives May another 2 weeks to come up with a solution. 

Most observers believe Theresa May is simply using a strategy of running down the clock to the March 29 deadline. By not extending the deadline she is seen as planning to hand out to the British Parliament two starkly different options- a massively disruptive no-deal Brexit causing Britain's departure from the European without any agreement and the option of accepting the agreement the prime minister has negotiated with the EU which protects Ireland and Northern Ireland peace and open border trade flows called the Irish backstop.