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Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State takes a strong stand on North Korean missile testing and nuclear program in a visit to Seoul and Beijing. He said the U.S. would be forced to take pre-emptive action "if they elevate their threat of their weapons program"  to an unacceptable level. Continuing a policy of the Obama administration following missile tests by North Korea, the Trump administration has rejected any talks with North Korea. Tillerson said that "the policy of strategic patience has ended." It was also meant to signal U.S. intentions before Tillerson goes to Beijing from Seoul. President Trump commented on Twitter; "North Korea is behaving very badly. They have been "playing" the United States for years. China has done little to help." Because China sees North Korea as a bargaining chip with the U.S., Japan and South Korea, the situation has ended repeatedly in a impasse with the North Korean nuclear and missile program continuing during the Bush and Obama administrations. This has also meant that North Korea was unlikely to collapse on its own, with China pursuing a policy of using North Korea as part of its defense policies in the region, as pointed out by Sanger in this report. As the North's missile program continues the U.S., and with the North seeing the missile program as the only way to ensure the survival of the regime, the U.S. needed to come up with a new way to tackle the situation.   ...

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French voters turned to parties outside the mainstream left Socialist Party and the right Republican Party for the first time in a run off presidential election. The National Front's Jean Le Pen made it to the runoff in 2002, then lost to Chirac of the Republican Party who won 78% of the vote. This time the Republican Party candidate Fillon had about 20%, the Socialist Party candidate Hamon won just 6% of the vote with the rest of the socialist vote going to a far left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon who had 19.6%. The winners were Emmanuel Macron, a former Economy minister under president Hollande of the socialist Party, getting about 24% and Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Jean Le Pen of the National Front, getting 21.5%. Compared to the U.S. the situation is slightly different in France because of the very high unemployment rate for young people- younger voters supported the National Front, and people especially in rural areas in the north, north east, and the south of the country around Nice and Marseille supported the National Front. Macron's movement En Marche, centrist party drawing support from centre right and centre left without clear ideology except to renew France and pro-EU, was strong in urban areas, among more educated people, especially in Paris and the area around Bordeaux and Toulouse in the south east of the country. Fillon did not do well in some traditional Republican Party areas including Nice, with inroads from Le Pen, who defined the party around anti-immigration, closed borders, and withdrawal from the European Union. ...

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China is exceptional in the speed with which it is moving on infrastructure projects. And this bodes well for American exporters like Caterpillar which is seein g big jump in excavator sales, and for China which may see thre fourths of the 6.5% increase in GDP in 2009 coming from infrastructure building. Fortunately there is still a need for alot of infrastructure development in China. Typical is the approval and start of work on the $930 million Xiangshan Island Bridge which will extend over the East China Sea and through mountain tunnels. Caterpillar CEO James Owen says of approval and start of construction as fast, "its something like nine months in the USA versus 9 weeks " in China. China has agood pipeline of projects and alot of planning work has been done for many years. For Xiangshan Island Bridge this goes back to1994. Liu Cijun completed a PhD dissertation in 1999 on bridge wind resistance, and the Ningbo native is now Chief Engineer for the project. Preparatory work on the bridge goes back to 2004 and the stone cutting ceremony in 2006. In August the bridge's feasibility report won approval from aplanning agency in Beijing, and in December approval by the Ministry of Transportation. Construction started in just 11 days after the Chinese government approved the project. China's investment in infrastructure has jumped by 102% in the 1st quarter of 2009 from a year earlier, according tho the National Bureau of Statistics. By comparison Washington has distributed $69 billion of its $787 billion in stimulus fundsto states and localities, which have spent $14 billion according to the WSJ....

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This editorial in the WSJ tells readers not to confuse the spirit of a pro-growth initiative in the CEO statement of Oct. 2012 with a simple tax increase. The CEO's are doing this as a part of a larger effort for a strong recovery in the U.S. economy and not simply to increase taxes. For the first time CEO's are backing tax increases to break the influence of what the Journal calls Republican deadenders who flatly oppose any tax increases period leading to unacceptable deadlock and uncertainty that prevents business from investing and hiring. This is part of a broader set of tax reforms to lower rates overall, reduce tax expenditures and support the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations framework to reduce the deficit.

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Ford's North American operations reported a pretax profit of $1.6 billion for the 3rd quarter 2010. Revenue went up to $16.2 billion from $13.4 billion in the prior year. Ford sold 145,534 F-series pickup trucks, a 25% increase from the same quarter prior year. Worldwide Ford Motor reported a profit of $1.7 billion. Ford will pay down its revolving credit line by $2 billion and will make a cash payment of $3.6 billion this week to cover the last of its health-care trust obligations to Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association (which covers 195,000 retirees and their spouses). The UAW controls the VEBA trust. These actions will reduce the company's overall debt to $22.8 billon, from $27.3 billion at the end of June 2010.

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Economists estimate Brazil's economy declined in the 4th quarter 2013 following a 0.5% contraction in 3rd quarter 2013. The central bank's economic activity index dropped by 1.35% in December over November. After a decade long boom in consumer spending retail sales are slowing sharply, growing only 4% in 2013 compared to 2012. The bright spot is unemployment. Unemployment in 6 of Brazil's largest metropolitan areas declined to an average of 5.4% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Brazilian manufacturers see lower production and investment, and industry is affected by the weak economic conditions in Argentina. Real wages increased by 1.8% in 2013 over 2012. Growth for 2014 is estimated at 1.5%.

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The WSJ cites polls in Italy Feb. 8, before the two week blackout prior to elections on Feb 24-25. The polls cited show the Centre left PD coalition of Luigi Bersani at 35% of the vote, the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi at 28%, the centrist Monti parties at around 10%, and the surging Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo in a range around 20%. The Monti centrist parties are facing difficulty because of the austerity measures taken by Monti's government in 2012. The Economist cites higher figures for the Monti centrist parties at 14% and puts Grillo's party at about 15%, showing the variations in poll figures. WSJ cites figures showing undecided vote at about 20% of voters, about 5 million voters being undecided. Voter turnout is also a factor, with less than the 80% voter turnout of 2008 expected in the current vote. The regional vote which determines the composition of the Senate shows Grillo likely to lead in Sicily, and the vote divided evenly between the PD party and Berlusconi's coalition in Lombardy. The best outcome for the eurozone is one in which the PD party wins, but not with a majority large enough for it not to need the support of the Monti centrist party, which is supported by Italy's business community and favored by the EU and Germany. ...

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Apple Music is about to overtake Spotify in the U.S. with its subscriber account base growing at 5% a month compared to 2% for Spotify. Apple Music comes in preloaded on Apple devices giving it an advantage.  Globally Spotify has twice the account subscriber base of Apple Music. Other players in the field are Pandora, Amazon and Google's You Tube for streaming music. Streaming users play a small monthly fee or put up with ads. Yet the industry of streaming music is yet to be profitable this report points out. Apple Music and Spotify both exaggerate the size of their user base. Spotify charges $9.99 a month for streaming music service, yet even after having a large subscriber base in millions it is still not making a profit. Spotify and Apple Music both offer student plans for $4.99 a month, and a family plan for 6 persons at $14.99 a month. In the free tier or initial free subscriptions period Apple Music is way ahead of Spotify, the Home Pod device adds to Apple's advantage. ...

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Britain's prime minister survives a vote in parliament called by the camp in her part that opposes a hard Brexit that calls for Britain severing connections with the EU. After she caved in to some demands from the camp that supports a hard Brexit on the issue of EU customs union, others with different views in her party called for a vote in parliament through an amendment. Theresa May survived this vote by just 6 votes following a vote a few days before called by the Brexit hard liner camp in her party which she survived. Britain's electoral Commission ruled that the Vote Leave campaign had violated the law by exceeding the spending limit of 7 million pounds by funnelling 675,000 pounds to BeLeave a pro Brexit youth group. There is now no certainty that a Brexit deal can make it through parliament if it is reached with the EU. A fresh election, or a second referendum on Brexit or terms of Brexit are likely if May's government collapses in 2018.  ...

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Germany's national broadcaster DW.com looks into the details of the vaccination drive in countries around the world, including Germany, and finds that there is more to the story than meets the eye in headlines about safety in vaccinations. Many headlines do not tell the whole story carefully. DW revewed reports from Italy, Austria, South Korea, Germany, Spain, the USA, Norway, Belgium and Peru, and found that in most cases health authorites have not found causal links between the vaccination and deaths.  As of March 15 it says 360 million people have been vaccinated in 120 countries, or about 9.25 million a day.  DW.com cites the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which states: 'there is no indication that vaccination has caused these conditions, which are not listed as side effects with this vaccine. Information available so far indicates that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than that seen in the general population." As of March 10, 2021 30 cases of blood clots are recorded for 5 million people vaccinated with Astra Zeneca vaccine in the European Economic Area.  The Paul Ehrlich Institute which is in charge of vaccination in Germany has looked into 113 reported deaths in 46 years to 100 years old patients in Germany. Of these 113 deaths PEI finds that 20 died of the Covid 19 infection as it takes 14 days after the second dose for full protection, and 43 died of pre-existing conditions or other infections. For the patient population it says "they were seriously ill patients with many underlying diseases." PEI says "based on the data we have we assume they died of their underlying disease- in a coincidental time with the vaccination." A virologist at the Technical University of Munich, says that the deaths after vaccination are below the expected number of deaths without the vaccination.  ...

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Not much will change in Italy's place in the European Union, says Maria Ferraresi, editor of Italy's Domani newspaper. Italy expects 200 billion euros of solidarity aid from the European Union that is dependent on following EU rules. And coalition partner Berlusconi says he will drop his support if Meloni adopts any anti EU rules positions. Meloni's Brothers of Italy party with 26% of the vote has roots going back to the Social Movement in Italy in the 1930's. To attract support she has remained in opposition even when Matteo Salvini of the League and Silvio Berlusconi of Forza Italia parties joined Mario Draghi's unity government during the pandemic. She has turned to a pro EU stand from a EU skeptical stand. Meloni is also forming one of seventy Italian governments since 1945 such is the pace of government change in Italy making every government dependent on fickle political sentiments that shift quickly. The Italian economy has fallen into a stagnant situation with growth less than 1% in 2022, and the main concern of voters and the elected governments is the economy and standards of living, so that EU aid acts as a critical part of rejuvenating the economy. The Eu solidarity aid of $200 billion in coming years is critical for Italy's economic revival. It also shows the European Union in action after the years following World War II when it was realized that some sort of sound European economic framework was needed for the common good. Ferraresi also points out that Italy has also gone through an EU led effort to make the judiciary fully independent and able to function similar to the judiciary in France and other EU nations. Italy also has a very de.centralized government with state and local governments playing a major role in administration. This reduces the impact of changes in the capital Rome.  ...

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Biden gives a rousing call to the Nation, on what he has achieved for America and its workers and families, for the people of 51 states, and what the tasks are for the future to 2035. It surpasses the State of the Union address 2024 in the vigor and importance of his message, 76 days before a national election to decide the future of the Nation and the World. Key parts of the speech selected by Lyrarc, on Infrastructure above and Manufacturing here with 800,000 new Manufacturing jobs created. "Because of you and so many electeds out there, American manufacturing is back. Where the hell does it say we wouldn’t lead the world in manufacturing. Eight-hundred-thousand new manufacturing jobs. Our Republican friends and others made sure they’d go abroad to get the cheapest labor. We used to import products and export jobs. Now we export American products and create American jobs, right here in America, where jobs belong. With every new job, with every new factory, pride and hope is being brought back to communities throughout the country that were left behind. You know you’re from it, many of you. You know what it’s like when that factory closed where your mother, your father, your grandmother, grandfather worked. And now you’re back, providing once again, proving that Wall Street didn’t build America, the middle class built America, and unions—unions—built the middle class.  It’s been my view since I came to the Senate and that’s why I’m proud to have been the first President to walk a picket line and be labeled the most pro-union President in history. And I accept it. That’s a fact. Because when unions do well, we all do well.  ...

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Jeannie Rice, originally from Seoul, South Korea, is a 71 year old marathon runner who runs the marathon in 3 hours 27 minutes and 50 seconds. She holds the world record for her age, after 3 failed attempts. Average pace is 7:25 per mile for 13.1 miles, which is something people aspire for at 30 years age. She runs 4 to 6 marathons a year. Her routine is to run 10 miles a day on average for 7 days a week with long runs on the weekend. She lives in Ohio and runs in the winter in Florida. The way she does it- take a day off before the race, keep several pairs of sneakers and change them every 3 months. She doesn't crosstrain much, preferring golf. She eats a lot of carbs, rice even white rice, pasta. She starts with a pre-run snack of a small banana and half tablespoon of natural peanut butter, coffee. Post run it is a bagel with avocado. Lunch is green salad with avocado. Dinner may be rice with shrimp and vegetables. Experts say training programs are highly individualistic. A fit person takes about 3 months to be ready for marathon running. Long runs are crucial. A 12-18 hour rest period after a marathon is suggested to allow tissue healing. Proper footwear and several pairs of sneakers are critical to avoid injury. ...

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This NYT editorial says that before he was elected Mexico's president Nieto, with his book "Mexico- The Great Hope," (Mexico- La Gran Esperanza)presented himself as a candidate who would transform Mexico. Yet says NYT three years into his administration it has turned out to be very different, with no effort to clear up the questions about the murder of 43 students in Guerrero state. Economic growth has not matched the hopes generated after the Pacto de Mexico was approved and new legislation limiting monopolies passed. The slump in oil prices has led to limited results following the opening up of the oil industry to foreign investment. The result is an administration increasingly unpopular in Mexico and failing to deliver on the hope generated in the early months of Pena Nieto's administration. Many of the tasks for transition of Mexico to a modern economy- free of monopolies, crime, a better education system, economic growth in all parts of the country, remain unrealized. During his term as governor of the state of Mexico 2011-2015, Pena Nieto's main achievement was the 608 Compromisos or promises which were placed on the internet website tracking progress on the health, infrastructure, highway and other projects. During the current administration the early results were achieved in the first year through agreement with the rival PAN party for the Pacto de Mexico, to reduce monopolies and open up the oil industry which had falled behind technologically with lack of investment. Since then the progress has been slow, the one bright spot being the auto industry with increased foreign investment. Regional disparities persist with the Bajio region, and the areas around Queretaro, Aguascalientes, near Mexico City growing fastest. Pena Nieto won the 2012 election with 38% of the vote mostly from this region, the incumbent PAN party at 25%, and the left front Of Lopez Obrador 32% drawing support from less developed areas in the south and the rest of the country. Just as the earlier Atenco protests and police action to clear protesters blocking land acesses by the state for expansion of Mexico City's airport, and the Soy 132 student protest movement during Pena Nieto's term as Governor of State of Mexico 2011-2015 affected perception of his administration, the murder of students at Guerrero affects perception of this administration. Nieto comes from the upper sections of the PRI as the nephew of two former governors of the state of Mexico, has a law degree from the Ibero-American University, and a masters degree in business administration from ITAM....

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George Rathmann, is the scientist at Amgen who pushed for development of EPO, a hormone which stimulates red blood cell production, when the bio-tech venture company was struggling in the mid-1980's. After approval by the EPA in 1989, Epogen became Amgen's main product with sales of $2 billion in 2011. Rathmann graduated from Northwestern University, and received his PhD. from Princeton University in physical chemistry. He helped develop Scotchguard at 3M, and later headed the R&D department at the diagnostics division of Abbott Laboratories. He built Amgen from a staff of four in the early days in 1980, and it was his intuitive sense that Amgen should focus its entire effort on EPO development in the mid-1980's that led to its success.

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The Karachi stock index was up 49.4% in 2013 as the pro-business policies of the Sharif government are attracting foreign investment. From the beginning of May 2013 when Sharif was elected prime minister to the end of 2013, foreign investment flows into Pakistan reached $283 million, according to the Clearinghouse of Pakistan. Pakistan's government bonds are also attracting investors with yields declining from 11.69% on the ten year bonds to 7.54% by the end of 2013. Additional upswing sentiment comes from the government paying off $5 billion in debt that hurt investment in the energy sector. The oil and gas sector is about a third of the Karachi Stock Index. Total market capitalization on the Karachi Stock Index is $52 billion, and the largest company is Oil and Gas Development Company.

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Every appreciation of the euro by 10 cents costs Airbus 1 billion euros in lost profits. Airbus sells its planes in dollars, yet it incurs half of its costs in euros. During the last year the euros has appreciated against the dollar from $1.46 to about $1.35. Gallois, CEO of EADS (the parent company of Airbus), compares the currency swings to a sword of Damocles hanging over the company. Airbus response will be to find 1 billion euros of savings by 2010 in addition to cost cuts planned earlier. Airbus under Enders will look to aggressive currency hedging, renegotiating supplier contracts and cutting more jobs. Cost overruns of the A400M military transport plane of 1.4 billion euros are affecting EADS financial results, with loss of 776 million euros in the 3rd quarter of 2007.

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In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and established the independence of the 2 breakaway countries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia tried to enter NATO that year but the French and the Germans objected, and the U.S. did not want to commit deep in the Caucasus region. In the 2012 election the anti-Moscow government of Mr. Saakashvili was replaced by a government that sought friendly relations with the West and with Russia. There are still no embassies between Russia and Georgia. A special representative to Russia was appointed in the new government of Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his money in metals and banking in Russia. Saakashvili is now a Ukrainian citizen and is a governor of Odessa province, on the Black Sea, with separatist influence. Russia's trade ties with Georgia, a destination for Georgia's exports including wine, are gradually being restored after a trade embargo imposed in 2006. The trade embargo was lifted in 2013. The representative to Russia says its no use keeping the illusion of NATO membership even though it is an objective, as Georgia has to defend itself, the consequence of being in a difficult region. The strident anti-Russian rhetoric is now muted, as Georgia rethinks its relationship with Russia and the West to live in a difficult neighborhood. Ukraine went through some wild swings with the Orange Revolution, and the change in government to a pro-Russian government that jailed the earlier leader for corruption, leading to the protest movement calling for close relations to the West, the collapse of the elected pro-Russian government followed by the election of Mr. Poroshenko, and the Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014-2015, leading to western sanctions on Russia. The sanctions end in Jan 31, 2016. The situation in Ukraine may stabilize where the NATO readiness force and German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent NATO presence in the Baltic states," lead to a situation where Russia determines the best course is cooperation with its neighbors, and trade, economic relations....

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The US House of Representatives voted 245-189 in favor of repealing the health care law. Only 3 Democrats joined the entire Republican caucus in voting for repeal, compared to 34 Democrats who voted in March 2010 against the health care law. This is a largely symbolic move as the Democrat controlled Senate will not consider the repeal, and even if it did the President would veto it. Republicans favor some aspects of the health care law which allow children to be on the parent's insurance till age 26, and a ban on insurers denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions. Opinion polls show 46% of respondents opposed repealing and eliminating the law, and 45% favored repealing it. The health care issue ranks third among the economic issues important to respondents, behind unemployment and reducing the federal budget deficit.

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Ingram says Obama's 2015 budget is more of a wish list for Democrats, because 2015 spending levels are already set and House Republicans will put together their own budget putting forward the Republican views. Obama's budget includes new taxes on busiess and the wealthy to reduce the deficit. Other ideas- raise tobacco taxes to pay for universal pre-K education, a "Fianncial Crisis Responsibility Fee" on big banks, overhaul immigraion laws to increase tax revenues, limit itemized deductions for the rich, force drug companies to give large rebates on Medicare prescriptions. Another proposal is a $56 billion "Opportunity, Growth and Security" Initiative, for spending on early childhood education, job training, and medical research. To pay for this he would cut the amount wealthy people can save tax free for retirement, cut crop insurance and raise airline security fees.

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Shinzo Abe and the LDP won a landslide victory in Japan's Dec. 2012 elections. Shinzo Abe was the first prime minister of Japan born during the post war period when he became prime minister in 2006. He is less influenced by the legacy of the pre-war period and war period. Abe is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, Commerce and Industry minister during the war, and prime minister when Japan signed the security treaty with the U.S. in 1960. His father was foreign minister, making him one of the rare politicians with a deep family history in Japan's government. Their views also influenced his own. Kishi is committed to changing Article 9 in Japan's constitution which limits the role of the military, and renounces the right to wage war. His 2006 book "Toward a Beautiful Nation," describes some of his views.

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The issues surrounding Kosovo, the Russian feeling that the Ossetians have just as much right to decide their future. And the anxiety felt by Ukraine under Yushchenko, the President of Ukraine, who also is pursuing membership in NATO, and of the Baltic countries of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. The issue of ethnic Russians and how they are being treated in these countries and in Ukraine, the additional factor of pro Russian parties in Ukraine. The need for an accomodation by both sides that does not end up in either Russian predominant influence- thus restricting the freedom of thesde countries to determine their own future or in poor treatment of ethnic Russians in these countries surrounding Russia- and the proper handling of the missile shield issue for installing western missiles in these former states that may be seen as provocative by Russia.

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Sometimes a story gives clues to what might be happening in a way political reports and warime reports cannot. This is the account of a girl who as a teenager grew up in Tshkinvali, the Ossetian capital, at a time when Georgians and Ossetians intermarried, who has relatives in Georgia and Ossetia and in Russia. She sees the first signs of Georgian nationalism in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the years following 1991, things getting worse as Ossetians felt themselves treated differently from Georgians and felt isolated. Around 1991 the anti Ossetian pro Georgian mood was promoted by an antiSoviet dissident named Gamasakhurdia. Ms. Androva leaves Ossetia for study in Toulouse, France, in 2001, she returns in 2008 to see Tshkinvali and what has changed. She also recalls her own experiences.