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An extraordinary moment in history took place at Rajghat Gandhiji Memorial in New Delhi on September 10, 2023. The leaders of 20 largest nations from all over the world observed a moment of silence after devotional hymns at the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi. Click on original article to pull up the larger picture and take our On the Spot Quiz on which countries were paired together on either side. On either side of Modi are Widodo (Indonesia) and Lula (Brazil), next to them either side Macron and Biden, Albanese and Sunak, EU's Michel and Leyen , Erdogan and Yeong, Fernandez and Meloni, Qiang and Kishida, Lavrov and Scholz, Sissi and Ramaphosa, Rutte and Trudeau. Can you tell which countries each pair of leaders are from? Answer below for our first On the Spot Quiz. Answer: France and US, Australia and UK, EU's pair, Turkey and South Korea, Argentina and Italy, China and Japan, Russia and Germany, Egypt and South Africa. It is an exceptionally well thought out arrangement. With Indonesia and Brazil on either side of India, you have the core of the aspiring population of 1.7 billion people more than anywhere else on the planet Earth, who think alike, act alike. And next to them are leaders of France and US, Australia and Britain, and the European Union, who are resolutely backing the shift in agenda- debt assistance, tripling renewable energy, and a new infrastructure building effort for ease of living.   ...

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Bernard Lewis's "The Arabs in History," is a short book which confirms Zakaria's point about the openness of Islamic societies before the 19th century, with some exceptions in certain periods. Most books or a quick look at Wikipedia shows us that the Renaissance in Europe in the 15th century got its boost from books by ancient Greek authors that were available in Arab societies long after they were forgotten in Europe. His point about Indonesia and India is also true to a large extent except for periods such as the one under Aurangzeb (17th c.). Muslim societies in British India (todays Pakistan and Bangladesh) experienced less social and educational reforms under the British than Hindu societies for various reasons leading to larger backwardness, illiteracy which breed extremist ideas. This is likely to change throughout North African Arab societies and South Asia in the next 50 years, especially with the modernization drive underway in India, which is likely to spread to other parts of the region. Islam as a missionary religion with force of arms spread in the 7th-9th century rapidly over Arab North Africa and parts of west Asia, and later to South Asia. Once established there were long periods of openness to ideas and books, and different cultures ( with the exception of preferences for Muslims), and a stress on commerce which inherently reduces religious vehemence, as the example of Britain shows. For this reason the current conditions in Islamic societies is more atypical than typical. A factor that has worsened it is that 19th c.-20th c. Islamic societies have put less emphasis on commerce and industry than historically seen in prosperous Islamic societies, on which more research is needed to understand why. Another factor is the impact of the interface with technologically and scientifically progressing Europe and America not becoming a learning experience for acquisition of this science and technology and making it one's own, a pattern seen in Buddhist societies of Japan in 19th c., South Korea in 20thc.,and China 21st c. Because Buddhism sprang from Hinduism or a response to Hindu ideas in India, India could be put alongside China for the 21st c. rapid assimilation of western science and technology making it one's own. When there is a violent collison between Japan and U.S. Admiral Dewey's ships, or China and British advances around 1900, the initial reaction of rejection is reversed with adoption of western technology and practices making it one's own. Similiar response in India. Islamic societies have had an extended period of rejection for reasons not fully understood even today. This is likely to generate the kind of internal debate about how to revert back to the usual mode of adoption in Islamic civilization, with the potential catalyst in India and other locations in the Middle East. The most respected German of the 19th century is Alexander Von Humboldt, a naturalist who advanced scientific knowledge, and a mentor to Charles Darwin in England, author of "Origin of the Species." Humboldt says- "There are no inferior races, we are all humans, and we are all destined to reach for and grasp liberty." That Humboldt spent most of his best years in Paris, France, which he compared to the provincialism in his native Berlin, goes to show how Humboldt, Darwin and Humboldt's friend Aime Bonpland of France, maintained close cooperation and friendship and anticipated the close cooperation in Europe since the second half of the 20th c., long before European politicians and governments grasped this. Commerce, science, travel, media and free exchange of ideas, are as favorable to progress as politics and ideology is inimical to it....

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US Representative Katherine Tai sets out the policy of the Biden administration on trade with China. The policy is simply to keep Trump administration policy on tariffs in place and seek dialogue with China. This report in the WSJ explains what this means.  The Biden administration is preparing a long term policy to restore American leadership in the world in technology, trade and industry. This means as in semiconductors providing $52 billion to assist US firms to make semiconductors at home. The US will build a new supply chain that is resilient and brings more of the critical technologies in manufacturing back to the US. Where Mr. Trump was the initiator of a new policy on trade but lacked a long term vision Mr Biden is giving the Trump policies new vigor and shape and a long term vision of belief in America's role in the world. He is doing this by building on America's key strength - its people. The only way to do this is to invest massively after three decades of disinvestment under previous administrations. This comes in the shape of the $3.5 trillion plan for infrastructure and the Families and Workers Plan. Biden is also building stronger relationships with allies Australia, Britain, Japan, India, and Germany for trade, supply chain, and defense.   ...

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Isaacson's new book on Musk says Musk's story is a cautionary tale. The compulsion to be drama magnet or mean are not prized traits, say others.  More sinister (the hell) is celebrating a culture that does not respect the need for worklife balance, of respect for nutrition and exercize for good health. Musk's methods which he calls "algorithm", a word known more for obscurity than meaning, are nothing new. For years as the US, Japan and China, now India have innovated there is a focus on simplifying things, and to do this questioning the existing way of doing things by breaking down the existing method into pieces and reorganizing the pieces of the puzzle leaving out unneeded pieces. What is the key to his success as it was for Jobs at Apple is creating a culture in which people would invest in and take risks for innovation at the high end of the price spectrum. Jobs used design and new stuff like the iPod and iPad, iPhone to do this. Musk does this through playing the role of a social media icon but a dangerous one that does not respect worklife balance and good health habits of nutrition, exercize and mindfulness. In processes this can give you a process that takes less time and money- how India's moon mission and rover Chandrayan 3 was done for $78 million showing these work practices of Musk are nothing new, and universally adopted by successful companies and nations. Newer ask your employees to do what you would not do, is also adopted by the best managers. By turning it into a mantra it obscures the fact that America today is a country of massive inequalities where two thirds of 4th graders cannot pass ACT reading test and half of retirees have zero savings, working people and families face a cost of living and health crisis and are badly neglected. How does it help to role model as an icon and popularize a culture that tolerates and accepts such conditions that would leave men deeply troubled, including America's leaders Washington, Lincoln and FDR if they were alive today. ...

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Germany is trying not to choose sides in the trade and security disputes between China and the U.S. Yet it owes a lot to the U.S. from the days of the Marshall Plan and U.S. taking on the role of defending Germany after the Berlin Wall. China was then a partner with the Soviet Union in the Cold War.  Today China is Germany's top market for its car industry. Yet the U.S. export market is much larger than China at $119 billion with China's at $96 billion. In Germany 28% of jobs are linked to exports, and in manufacturing this goes up to 56%, according to Germany Ministry of Economic Affairs. Germany supplied much of the factory  equipment from its engineering companies and the infrastructure that powered up the China transformation. A transformation now underway in India.  There are signs of a shift as engineering companies in Germany grew faster in the U.S. than China, increasing by 6-10% a year. India remains a key growth market for Germany over the next 10-15 years as growth in China slows and India accelerates with its younger demographics and investment in infrastructure. Much of the infrastructure in China is built and it is approaching the saturation Japan reached in the 1990's with additional investments adding little in the way of productivity. Longer term Germany has more potential for growth in countries in South and South East Asia  that will need to make huge investments in infrastructure and technology for manufacturing to meet the aspirations of the people there. Other issues related to freedom going back to the Berlin Wall and the rebuilding of Germany after World War II will emerge. German companies are running out of patience says this report in the WSJ with the bureaucratic obstacles, forced technology transfers, subsidies by state model to extinguish competition, and protectionist approach to home markets, even as state funded companies in China put other companies in Europe, Asia and the U.S. at a disadvantage. Germany will need to transition to a shift in its global relations, a process that is only now taking place. Just as with austerity policies in which it has now made the shift from going with the northern European countries (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Finland) to the Southern European (France, Italy, Spain) in favor of common solidarity even at the short term cost of common debt, Germany now is facing the shift for solidarity with the U.S. for its support of Germany from the period of the Berlin Wall in the 1950's, for the U.S. and European solidarity in the face of the post-coronavirus world. The U.S. showing its generosity and openness to Germany and war torn Europe even as it took on the added responsibilities for creating a new alliance with Europe.   ...

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The end of another long war in Asia that started in 1979 with Soviet forces followed by American forces- the war lasted for 44 years in a country of mountains with 38 million people. Just as with the Vietnam war that started in the sixties under president Kennedy and ended in the mid 1970's, yet even earlier than that in the 1950's with French colonial forces. That war lasted 25 years. It achieved little in terms of ideology as market capitalism now prevails in China and Vietnam. What it achieved was a single Vietnam under nationalist forces led by the Communists under Ho Chi Minh who was a student in Paris when the Versailles Treaty was signed in 1918, when he called for self determination in Indochina. That war had a parallel in the war from the 1930's to 1949 between Mao's communist forces and first the Japanese, then Chiang's Nationalist forces. The war in China lasted 20 years.  This ends a long chapter of anti colonial and anti western wars in Asia that covered most of the 20th century and the early part of the 21st. Asians are weary of wars just as much as the wars that divided Europe. Americans and Europeans have much to do to rebuild their economies and improve life in their countries. Asians have much to do to build infrastructure and a better life for their people. China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Japan have much to do after the pandemic.     ...

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WTO Trade talks and the negotiations between EU, US, Brazil, India, China, Japan, and Canada continue with difficulties in getting India's agreement. Mr Nath of India has come to speak for all the world's poorest countries in Africa and Asia and also the growing emerging economies like S. Korea and India. THe EU and the USA are keen on access to India's growing market. And India and Brazil want to see concessions from the EU and the USA that will help the poorer countries especially promises made at the Doha round that were to ease global poverty that have not been fulfilled. With the difficult economic situation in the EU and the USA there is less give on their side and the Indians and the Brazilians are insistent.

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By influential business leaders from Brazil, India, Sweden, the US, France and Japan. A strong case for completing the Doha Round even if this takes difficult and decisive choices. The concern is about preserving and building on all the gains in free trade made in earlier Rounds. Not one of the earlier Rounds failed so this would be a first. Differences in areas like agriculture which are politically sensitive in countries like France and Brazil stand in the way. See the article by Scott Miller, French Resistance to Trade Accord has Cultural Roots, in the Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2006.

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In 2013 growth shows signs of strengthening in the U.S. and the eurozone countries see improvement from the severe recession in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and weakness in Italy. Developing countries see growth slow down to about 5% in India, 7% in China and 2% in Brazil. Growth improvement in Japan. Overall the situation appears to be reversing with growth picking up in the developed countries and slowing in developing countries and emerging markets. This was also reflected in equity markets performance with U.S. and European stock markets showing strong performance and emerging markets weak or declining performance.

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Thomas Bach is a German fencing athlete who won the Olympic Gold medal. He is from Wurzburg, Germany and was elected in 2013, in office as International Olympic Committee president till 2025. In the new election in 2025 Bach supported Coventry of Zimbabwe, a winner of the gold medal in swimming for the job, over a candidate from Spain whose father Samaranch held the same job, and COE a candidate from Britain. Other candidates were from Japan and France. The process of voting and the people voting is not representative of the world's people. As countries such as Germany and Spain are dominant. Britain and France, China and India have never elected a representative from their country as IOC president in the 20th century or the 21st. IOC presidents are there for long periods, as long as 20 years. Avery Brundage of the US was IOC president from 1952-1972  for 20 years followed by Morris of Ireland for 7 years. Following this in 1980 another 20 year term for a Spanish businessman Antonio Samaranch, whose son tried to run in 2025. In 2001 12 years for a Belgian Jacques Rogge, followed by another 12 years for German Thomas Bach.  In 20th century no one from France or Greece, no one from India or China has been elected IOC president and the election process is an insider's affair, even thought the games are watched in China, India and other parts of the world by hundreds of millions of people. ...

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Over the short run Europe presents some opportunities after Germany's Merz gets the constitutional brake on spending removed and plans $1 trillion in spending on infrastructure and defense. The US is busy with immigration and other challenges, and tariffs are part of the effort to stop fentanyl on Canada, Mexico and China. This poses uncertainty for business in 2025 which should gain clarity as most tariffs are meant to ensure a level playing field and India, China, EU, Mexico, Canada cannot argue with the idea of we charge them what they charge us, as reciprocal tariffs, as fairness in trade. These countries have reason to cooperate as it is basically fair trade DJT administration is after. Japan cooperated so history shows it can be done and Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he got the Japanese to cooperate and be fair. His deputy is Jameson, now US Trade Representative in 2025. They are no ideologues, just fed up with the way things are and US carrying the trade imbalances and shipping manufacturing overseas that hurts ordinary Americans. US exceptionalism is seen as prevailing after a period in which American companies gain a footing in a level playing field and unfair advantages China, EU other nations had are corrected for investors in the UK, Australia, India and many European countries. It also gives American companies a chance to retool for a new business environment that can offer more opportunities and markets including in India and Europe. ...

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Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco, says at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 26, 2016- "If prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand it for a long, long time." With $630 billion in foreign currency reserves the Saudis are following a long term policy of full production. Gasoline subsidies are being reduced, IPO of Saudi Aramco being discussed to raise additional capital, and other steps being taken to plan for long term oil prices. Flexibility for a change in policy is diminished with the addition of Iranian oil production to supplies following the lifting of sanctions. The events in 2015-2016 of Russian bombing campaign in Syria, and the cutoff of diplomatic relations with Iran, have worsened the standoff with Iran and Russia in the Middle East conflict. As a result it appears that the Saudis are settling down for a long term policy of full production which would keep oil prices low for the long term. India, Japan, China, the U.S. and the European Union, Turkey and other countries benefit from low oil prices when their economies need a boost in 2016-2017....

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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Prof. Mohammad Ayoob of Michigan State University looks at the tit for tat military responses of India and Pakistan and tries to interpret the mixed signals of the Pakistan military and civilian president Imran Khan. He says Imran Khan had the difficult task of being in line with the top generals of the Pakistan military and at the same time responding to international pressures to de-escalate the crisis. Imran Khan asked India not to take the confrontation further or Pakistan would have to retaliate, and at the same time emphasized de-escalation as the goal with pressure from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and China. The nuclear doctrines of the two countries which differ from the manner in which the U.S. and Soviets operated during the Cold War, also make escalation dangerous. Prof. Mohammad points out that the military in Pakistan plays a different role in the state since it was created in 1947. With military control of nuclear weapons any danger of losing control of the state and its position in the state since 1947 could lead to reckless strategies, says Prof. Mohammad. Mr. Imran Khan had to speak in different terms to different audiences in a kind of double speak in this situation. Mr. Khan spoke in terms of development and the need for Pakistan to fund the needed infrastructure always at the back of the mind in the current situation at the outset of the crisis. Much of this was lost in the ensuing hours of the crisis. Yet this remains the dominant need in South Asia as Mr. Imran Khan faces the challenge of meeting his promises for development as much as Mr. Modi faces the challenges of development to catchup with Asian neighbors South Korea and China who have shown how this can be done. A longer memory does show China and South Korea falling behind in the fifties and sixties before making great progress in the last 3 decades by pursuing peaceful cooperation with earlier adversary Japan,  and in the case of China the U.S.  Anyone familiar with the role played by the U.S. in China's civil war, and the Japanese invasions of Korea and China, during four decades of conflict,  followed by the cooperation offered by Japan and the U.S. to first South Korea and then China can see that progress is possible and lays the foundation for development. A recent article in The Guardian reports that China now lays more concrete every 2 years than the U.S. did for the entire twentieth century. None of this would be possible had Chinese leaders in their wisdom and passion for development not pursued development first and foremost, setting aside historic wounds. ...

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This analysis from The Times of London provides critical information on the strategy for successfully tackling the coronavirus following the example of South Korea and progress in Britain.

The random community testing is key to getting an idea of the scale of infections in the community at large. The critical ratio called reproduction ratio tell one if the virus is under control and how lockdowns can be lifted. For Britain this 0.7 estimated by Imperial College. It has a 2 week lag. 1.0 or close to 1.0 is not good. Germany after being at about 0.7 has moved up to 1.0 with 2 week lag in information says the Robert Koch Institute. This means a lot of work ahead, it won't be easy.

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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US antiship missiles Nmesis are placed in the Philippines islands to protect parts of the Pacific region in 2025. During the period of US engaged in wars in the Middle East under Bush and then Obama, the US Navy lost time and China built up its Navy. The lack of foresight of US business and focus on profits of firms like Apple shipping manufacturing to China meant loss of the manufacturing knowhow as other companies followed Apple for 2 decades. The result is that it takes long lead times for the US to build the ships the US Navy needs, a repeat of the situation the US faced with Japan by 1935 when the US was focused on tackling the Great Depression under FDR. At that time at a Naval Conference in London in 1934 the Japanese walked out rejecting the Washington Naval Agreement of 1924-25 that limited Japan to 60% of the US and British Navies ships tonnage. By 1941 the Japanese Navy was its main reason for its efforts to control Asia. FDR who had been Secretary of the Navy was not far behind so that America launched its own efforts in 1937- in an 18 month period 1942-1943 the US destroyed the Japanese Navy and protected China, India, from the worst Japanese Kwantung army elements that ran the government leading to 14 million lives lost in China. ...

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Global infrastructure needs are expected to go up by 20% to 2.1 trillion dollars annually for the next 10 years compared to the previous ten years, according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute. India's investment in infrastructure will double to 1 trillion dollars in 2012-2017. compared to the prior five year period. Toshiba hopes to increase sales by 20% to $38 billion for nuclear power generation and distribution equipment and railway equipment, by the year ending March 2013. This is 38% of total revenue for Toshiba. Hitachi has set a goal of a 46% increase in sales to $29 billion, or 20% of total revenue for Jan 2011- March 2016. The Japanese Government and a consortium of Japanese companies are working together on deals such as the deal signed with Vietnam in October 2010 for nuclear power. The International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan entity, includes 12 companies and the Japanese government. The consortium was critical to negotiating the Vietnam deal.

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...