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In a policy unchanged since 1950's women in China retire at age 50 and men at age 60 years. China is aging faster than the US and it's population that is over 60 years is 20% of the population. Over the 5 years to 2025 about 40 million people will retire, about the size of the population of Canada. There will be 36 million fewer people in the working age population ages 16-59 to support them. Chinese migrant workers and families work longer hours than white collar workers making it difficult to raise the retirement age to European levels in a short time. The government's approach is to get public support by creating awareness about the problem and change the retirement age gradually over a longer period. The first step will be bringing the retirement age of women to the level of men. The 10 year gap in retirement age of men and women is not found in any advanced economy.

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By pulling back from the kind of erratic immigration enforcement in Minneapolis DJT as shown by the WSJ, the administration is closer to getting a deal on the government's budget for passage in Congress. It averts a shutdown. The DHS part is being discussed and voted separately in that deal. In Congress there is more openness to talk about each other's flaws as Chris Murphy leads the Democrats. Tim Kaine says "we can do better" instead of the belligerant opposition to ICE. Lisa Mukowski says it is hopeful because the talk has shifted away from "abolish ICE" to better law enforcement and doing better law enforcement. The WSJ and business have taken the lead on this issue with "de-escalate." Congressis doing more as Republicans are critical and even in DHS Homan is now in charge, the president say "de-escalate a bit," many Republicans including Kristi Noem at DHS and government officials look for ways to do better. In this way Minneapolis has opened up new dialogue so that the American tradition of law enforcement done right that makes people and neighborhoods safe and law enforcement acts in ways that are a role model, the anger and frustration on boh sides is defused little by little in constructive ways, and topics at the heart of the matter are being discussed and sorted out for the first time in years. ...

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California Governor Jerry Brown reflects on what the Democrats missed in the last 4 years- the crisis of affordability of housing, for groceries. And with the border issues the unease about flow of fentanyl across the border that with transgender and culture that adds to unease is the silent issue Democrats failed to face up to for working class Americans. Orange County going for Democrats,  Imperial County going the opposite way, that says a lot about things today.  "When you see Imperial County going for Trump and Orange County going for Harris,” Jerry Brown reflected says this Politico report, a party that was winning wealthier, coastal Californians, but that had “lost a percentage of the working families.” "Democrats need to get their act together, focusing on the basic stuff — the economy, the environment.” ...

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Cutter and Adams of the WSJ show the inner workings of a large consulting firm, McKinsey & Company. A University of Chicago professor started the firm in 1926. By the 1960's the firm would hire new graduates and train them in its consulting culture to do studies and make recommendations on issues facing client companies. Consultants are not hired for long  experience in each field, they are hired from top business schools and universities upon graduation and trained in the company culture. Work involves extensive travel from different offices, with long hours typical also of the financial firms, with little acknowledgement of worklife balance for productive effort even after the pandemic. Cutter and Adams do not cover an earlier period of McKinsey during the financial crisis of 2008 with a controversy around insider trading information about Goldman Sachs which hurt the reputation of McKinsey.  The WSJ investigation into 1MDB Malaysia fund scandal showed Goldman Sachs involvement leading to less confidence in large financial firms as well as consulting companies. This consulting business is growing after the pandemic with about half of it related to companies seeking to prepare and set up AI. This report looks at the new setup in McKinsey where hundreds of senior partners now elect the head of the firm for two 3 year terms. The head of AI at McKinsey is challenging the the current head of the firm in an upcoming election. It cannot be said that consulting firms are improving the management of companies, as more companies today use it sparingly and mostly for special needs or studies including AI. As a result these consulting companies are using the same branding mechanisms, and as Cutter and Adams point out, these professional service firms are run by partners through a system of extensive wining and dining, talking and communicating, so that people who can set an internal consensus do well. The process of development of management skills in the US dating back to Alfred Sloan at General Motors when Mr. Mckinsey started his firm at University of Chicago in 1926, and to Andy Grove founder of Silicon Valley in the 1970's, with their  emphasis on constructive confrontation and skills Grove later outlined in his book "High Output Management" has little to do with such consultancy firm services. Even less can it be said about these consultany services that they have anything to do with the management intuition, vision, wisdom and skills of Matsushita in his book "Not for Bread Alone, Akio Morita in "Made in Japan," or for Grove's unique perspective in "Only the Paranoid Survive."  ...

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The internet is flooded with coconut emojis this day July 22, 2024, as Kamala Harris gets the support of hundreds of thousands of donors and raises $81 million over 24 hours, and gets the support of most of the members of Congress, Senators and Governors in her party. The coconut emojis relate to a story about what her mother used to tell her when she was young and what Kamala laughed about in a speech-  : “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.”

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A makeover in a state that relied a lot on government services and high taxes to fund these services run by the state. A shift away from this tax funded government run model of services to getting private initiative involved, letting private investors take risks and try out new ideas in education, public services. Sweden has also moved away from reliance on laptops and ipads, on electronic screens for early and middle school education, preferring an older style of binders and writing on paper. Having realized that the electronic screen had not delivered on reading comprehension the way books and reading hard cover books did, and realizing that writing skills come from taking a pen and writing on real paper, rewriting and rewriting. Realizing that education does not require fancy tools, basically good teachers, good books and a basic drive to learn, a curiosity of mind and dedication to putting in the work required. This is something that is also part of Lyrarc's Movement of Global Literacy with Sweden at the forefront in trying out new ideas, and dropping failed ones. ...

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The WSJ tells Americans and people around the world that they should make themselves well informed about such research as it may be costly for their lives and future. 

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Project 2025, originating at the Heritage Foundation, most dangerous idea similar to abolishing Social Security is to consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve. Why? Because the Fed was established to avoid banking panics and setup a sound banking system, a sound economic system. It suggests unravelling solutions that were developed after one hundred years of experience gained by US that has made the period since 1950 the least crisis prone compared to prior to Fed's formation in 1913.  Mr. Trump himself said in 2022 that the Heritage Foundation will "lay the groundwork and detail the plans" for what our movement will do, according to the WSJ report." It has become a matter of huge controversy with plans for outright attacks on the civil service, a blueprint of plans to shut down important government agencies such as the Education Department, Department of Homeland Security, and affect the functioning of the government of the United States in accordance with the Constitution.  The most radical is to change the financial system of the US that evolved from the Great Depression and previous economic crises since 1900 that led to the formation of the US Federal Reserve as the central bank that monitors aspects of the economy such as inflation and unemployment. Project 2025 says consider abolishing the US Federal Reserve and replace it with 'free banking' that does not control interest rates or the supply of money. These are untested ideas but more significant is the fact that it is the US Fed that under different presidents has taken the lead in managing the economy when a crisis happened. President Woodrow Wilson signed into law the founding of the US Fed, and its regional Fed system with a. supervisory board in Washington on Dec 23, 1913. Before the Fed the US currency was printed by individual banks and inflation or the economy could not be controlled. This led to banking panics the last in 2007, with great loss to the working people and families of America. It is unthinkable today that individual banks not the central bank the US Fed would issue US currency dollar banknotes. Yet it is just this kind of radical Barry Goldwater type of idea that is being put forward in Project 2025 that is written for a future administration running the country. ...

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Kuwait oil production cut as storage fills up March 2026. Fewer tankers are making it through the Straits of Hormuz. Huge inventory on tankers in ocean waters and the added supplies from Venezuela help relieve the pressure on oil supplies as Iranian oil production stops. The US allows India to get Russian oil for 100 days in this special situation of war in the Middle East region. 

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AI demand increases cost for iphone chips- Apple cost structure is affected in 2026.

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Not since Suez crisis in 1956 (when Queen Elizabeth II visited the US), says NYT, is a visit so critical for US- British relations as King Charles visit to the US today, April 27th 2026.

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Much of this report concentrates on big name schools ignoring the facts about student debt and value delivered, and the shifts in perceptions in companies that see big name schools as not necessarily an asset as inthe past. In this new situation looking objectively at value delivered the US state university system is its strongest asset and the state universities offer higher value for local students without the unneeded debt loads of big ticket institutions with a lot of debt overhang, and little additional value. In the end education is about persistence, hard work, grit and determination. A  Kamala Harris at Hastings in San Francisco can do as well or better than someone from the big name schools. After the Supreme Court decision opposing quotas for affirmative action the first results of enrollment by ethnic group and race are mixed and sometimes confusing. Some colleges and universities are seeing the same enrollment and some are moving in opposite directions for ethnic groups and race. This NYT report says if universities can get to a fair enrollment for different groups without racial quotas then these quotas may not be essential to achieve their purpose. Schools are looking at students from rural areas in ways they did not in the past, and trying innovative approaches to building a better America after the pandemic because they think it is the right way. ...

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Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan visits the White House to meet president Trump. Mr. Trump welcomes Khan and lauds the Pakistani leader as an athlete and a leader. He tells him trade deals can be struck, future was bright and flow of aid can be turned on. Trump makes a casual offer to help mediate the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, even though it is certain that nothing comes out of this, because of India's position not welcoming other countries doing any mediation. At the heart of this reconciliation is Afghanistan and president Trump's conviction that Pakistan can get the U.S. out of Afghanistan. Trump stated this- "I think Pakistan is going to help us out, to extricate ourselves. Pakistan is going to make a difference." The idea is that Pakistan can persuade the militants, the Taliban, into a face saving settlement that will allow American troops to come home. Mr. Khan in turn stated that Pakistan had given up its policy of using Afghanistan to give it "strategic depth" against India. The army would not go behind the back of the civilian government to conduct a policy of its own. Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Trump are impatient to get this done. The deadline of Mr. Pompeo is September 1 and talks continue between the Taliban and representatives from Afghanistan. The U.S. effort is handled by Zalmay Khalizad. How Afghanistan is governed in the future is not determined and Pakistan has a key role to play in making a sensible solution take place if it decides that something new has to be tried.  In the past U.S. governments from both parties lacked the ability to take a good hard look at the facts the origin and evolution of this dispute. To tackle it directly with a willingness not only to call it for what it is but also to give the other side an incentive to try new solutions. The inventive style of the Trump administration to tackle the situation directly, but also come up with new and novel solutions is what is now being tried. ...

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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Mike Pence in one of the first moves as he assumes his role as head of the transition team ordered removal of all lobbyists from the transition team, says this report in the WSJ, citing a transition team member who knows about the decisions.