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This NYT report says there is scandal fatigue among Republicans and a sense about Mr. Trump that his time has passed. Much of the political gains made by Mr. Trump in 2017 were a result of the failures of president Bush within the Republican party wasting national resources on 2 remote wars while infrastructure was neglected, and the neglect of manufacturing communities in the US with jobs outsourced to China that presidents Bush and Obama failed to stop. With president Biden ending these wars period. And with Mr. Biden getting the legislation passed to put workers and families, American manufacturing, American infrastructure to the top of the agenda, the focus has shifted to China and Russia two countries that gained during the largely failed Clinton, Bush and Obama presidencies. The Ukraine war and China's belligerence over Taiwan remain an ever present risk. President Biden has articulated American resolve in this situation in a way that matches another president Harry Truman when he addressed the Soviet expansion in Berlin, then Greece, then across Eastern Europe, not seeking conflict yet not shirking responsibility for the free world. It is this new context in which the sordid affairs of a political outsider are presented to the ordinary American struggling to make a living during a cost of living crisis in 2023. ...

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Joe Biden was about 78 when he entered the presidency. Reagan ended his presidency at age 79 in 1989. It is about 35 years since Reagan, and advances of medicine are making it possible for people to work longer with retirement ages extended to age 65 in many countries. Mr. Biden looks healthy and brings much experience from his decades in the Senate of the US. His 36 years in the Senate are the longest for any president. Turning 80 should not be a hurdle in that sense if one is healthy and the country needs this experience. During a foreign affairs crisis with China and Russia this experience of 12 years as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is invaluable. More so as Biden reflects America's values. During his 36 years in the Senate he put forward the Violence Against Women's legislation in Congress. As Vice President he continued to advocate for working class and middle class and for families. One has to go back to Harry Truman to sense this kind of fervent and resolute action for workers and families, and for the American people. As president he passed the $1 trillion legislation for Workers and Families and to fight Climate Change. Building America Back Better is one of its goals and further investment in America and its people is being pushed forward.  Mr. Biden is living at a time when there is a struggle for the soul of the nation and he believes in his role in this struggle which gives him the energy he needs for his role in 2024 for continuing the work he has begun. ...

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The strange story of an aging ship in extremely bad shape from a Black sea port in Georgia with a 2750 ton shipment of ammonium nitrate with a crew on unpaid wages making its way to port Beira in Mozambique in 2013. It is leased by a Russian owner living in Cyprus who would make $1 million for transporting the shipment to Fabrica de Explosivos de Mozambique. It makes an unscheduled stop in Beirut after problems with seamen on the crew to pickup some heavy machinery which might help pay the ship's crews wages. The machinery does not fit and in any case the ship is in such bad condition and cannot handle any machinery.  The port authorites are interested only in the docking fees which the indebted Russian owner does not pay and abandons his leased ship. The port of Beirut impounds the ship for unpaid docking fees which turns out to be the reason the ship remains in Beirut harbor. The ship fails shipping standards and takes in water, it remains in Beirut harbor till 2014 when the ship sinks. Before that the Beirut authorites for some strange reason unload the ammonium nitrate and leave it in Hangar 12 warehouse where it remained till it exploded yesterday. The authorites never gave much thought to the ammonium nitrate and its dangers till after unloading it. After unloading no one accepted responsibility. The Russian who had leased the ship was living in Cyprus and took no responsibility. The government of Lebanon also did not know what to do with it.  Repeated attempts by the port authorites asking the government to take some action for disposal fails to lead to any action. There is now a sense that Lebanon is a failing state because of the nature of this incident.   ...

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Germany's defense chief Carsten Breuer talks with the BBC ahead of a NATO summit at the Hague, Netherlands inJune 2025. He says Russia is producing tanks and ammunition at a rapid rate that suggest some of it is going into stocks, which may be a threat to Baltic region. Under the SPD government with the Greens of chancellor Scholz Boris Pistorius of SPD was Defense Minister and was favored as candidate for chancellor. SPD true to its origins under Willy Bradt sought  German good relations with Russia even after the Ukraine war and limited its scope. Under CDU chancellor Merz note that Boris Pistorius is the only SPD minister from the Scholz government to remain, and in the position of Defense Minister. As the US deescalates with Russia for a larger role in Asia-Pacific Germany takes on a bigger defense role in Europe, yet with a desire for a swift end to the Ukraine conflict and a settlement that secures independence of Eastern European states.  ...

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Stephen Miller, as both intellectual and organizer, is shaping policy on immigration at the White House as adviser to Kristi Noem, head of Homeland Security. He is a dedicated follower of DJT and White House deputy chief of staff. He also brought Prof. Navarro to the attention of DJT on trade policies.  He was a key figure in the first DJT administration at the age of 31 having served as communications secretary for Senator Jeff Sessions and developed his ideas during the period with Sessions. As director of speech writing and senior adviser to DJT,  he wrote some of president DJT's policy speeches in the first term, the speech to the Republican National Convention 2016 , and the Inaugural Address of 2017,  including the speech on Jan. 6th 2020 following the storming of the Capitol building.  Who is Stephen Miller? He comes from a Jewish family that immigrated in his grandfather's generation in 1903 to Ellis Island from Belarus, during a period of discrimination in Russian regions. During the period on campus at Duke University where he graduated in Political Science, Miller was a follower of a prolific author, David Horowitz. Horowitz was part of the Jewish leftist intellectual movement in New York in the post war period, but after the 1980's joined the Reagan movement and questioned the ideas he had believed in, questioned what he saw as the antisemitism on US campuses. At Santa Monica public school in California in 2000-2003 Stephen Miller questioned the multiculturalism that replaced the America of the founding fathers, that he saw at the school. It is this perspective that also underlies Stephen Miller's ideas about universities, about immigration, about the economy and China under Bush, Obama and Biden. Miller is also an organizer as he set up the America First Legal in 2020 with funding from donors on the right which has filed many lawsuits during Biden's term in office.  ...

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Divisions in the European Union between Germany and Italy over the Nord Stream 2 project, and use of Ukraine as the transit country for Ukraine to earn budgetary revenues. The South Stream project which included Italian companies Eni and Saipem through Bulgaria was cancelled by Russia in 2014. As a result of differences Italy called for more discussion on a 6 month extension to sanctions against Russia over its intervention in Ukraine and for failure to comply with the Minsk agreement calling for restoring Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border. The 6 month extension was finally approved in Brussels.

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Russia's parliament voted to ratify Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization by a vote of 238 to 208. Opposition was led by the Communist party. The head of the Economic Expert Group in Moscow, Evsey Gurvich, says the new rules are important for Russia as Russia has no rules of the game today, the new rules will enhance competition. President Putin described the change in this way: "We joined the WTO because our economy is highly dependent on the external market in terms of both production and consumption. Excessive protectionism invariably leads to stagnation, low quality and high prices." The result from loss of revenue with lower tariffs is a loss of revenue of $5.7 billion in 2013, and $7.8 billion in 2014, according to Economic Development minister Belousov. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 convinced Putin that Russia had to participate in the decisions about the world economy because of the direct impact this has on Russia.

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Europe ten years ago invested heavily in gas fired electricity plants thinking that natural gas will be plentiful in the future. Now with global demand rising with the emergence of China and Russia. and Western Europe's own reserves, such as Norway's depleting, Europe is in a bind. Alexei Miller told shareholders: "The Natural Gas Market is now a seller's market." Western Europe's share of global gas consumption rose to 17.4 % in 2004 from 14.9% ten years ago. Now countries like Italy and Germany are scrambling to secure supplies and build long term relationships with Gazprom while Poland and other Eastern European countries are facing uncertainty about reliability of Russian gas supplies. Italian oil company Eni is negotiating a long term relationship to cooperate with Gazprom to recover gas from the Russian North and to supply the Italian market. Eni's CEO Paolo Scaroni addressing an industry conference in Amsterdam in June 2006, provided estimates that by 2012 Europe will need 220 billion cubic metres or nearly 2 and half times Italy's annual consumption. Scaroni said: "Where are we going to find all that gas?" Like other countries in Europe Scaroni does not see Gazprom as the whole answer, but sees few other ways to solve supply problems. Italy will invest in liquefied natural gas to have flexibility of sourcing. In the end though Scaroni is relying on Gazprom and says : "This gives them a responsibility to the Italian market .. and it strengthens our relationship."...

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Germany faces serious problems in its vaccination drive and efforts to control the pandemic in November 2021. The rate at which people are getting vaccinated has slowed to 150,000 a day and the percentage of the population that is vaccinated is stuck at 67%. This percentage of 67% fully vaccinated in Germany as of November 3 is much lower than that in Spain, France and Italy.  Spain is at 78%, France at 69% and Italy at 72%. (Data from NYT) This report in the Guardian points out that most of the remaining one third of the population is not eager to get vaccinated as surveys show that the those who have refused to get a jab are unlikely to change their minds.There is also the problem of booster shots. Germany's 16 regions conduct the vaccination drives and with many of the vaccination centers not active since September staff has to be retrained or rehired. This makes it harder to give booster shots to everyone that was vaccinated early by the start of winter. Why is it that Germany lags behind Spain in vaccination? There is a great deal of trust in Spain and Portugal in the health service and people are 100% behind their health system. The other countries that have a low rate of fully vaccinated are the US at 58%, Brazil 57%, Russia at 33%. Even the UK with its well respected National Health Service remains at 68% fully vaccinated. Today the US, Russia, Brazil, European Union countries and India have many of the 5 million deaths from coronavirus. India's vaccination drive is approaching 1100 million vaccinated, yet there is along way to go in getting most of the population fully vaccinated because of the large population of 1.3 billion. This is why the Indian prime minister on the first day of returning from the COP26 climate summit devoted his time to meeting with leaders of different states and heads of districts with low vaccination rates to press home the idea that the effort had to be taken up vigorously in the coming months. ...

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Kemal Kilicdaroglu is the leader of the Republican PHP party of Kemal Ataturk, who built modern Turkey after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. He was a civil servant for 30 years and headed the social security administration. Kilicdaroglu campaigns in a modest way with videos made in his kitchen in a big contrast to Mr. Erdogan. Since losing the election for Istanbul in 2009 and 2014 he has lost 2 presidential elections to Mr. Erdogan during the period of economic growth in Turkey. He now heads an alliance of 6 parties that includes popular mayors of Istanbul and Ankara. With inflation at over 50%, Turkey seen as stalling strengthening of NATO by blocking Sweden's membership, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the earthquake leaving over 50,000 people dead in Turkey and the government seen as having allowed substandard construction in Turkey, there is a sense that Turkey is ready for a new government. Kilicdaroglu says he will restore the parliamentary system, and restore independence of the judiciary, central bank and foreign ministry if he wins.    ...

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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A new Cold War takes shape as US and Russian talks proceed on borders in Eastern Europe. Russia insists the border today is a result of it being thrust on a weakened Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The European Union and Britain insist on the right of self determination of the countries of Eastern Europe such as Poland and Ukraine, Baltics. The US seeks some common ground as Russia places its army near the Ukraine border in January 2022.

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Risk averse leaders are hurting the German economy with little or no growth in the last 5 years. See articles alongside. Anglela Merkel's debt brake inthe German Constitution and the attitude for debt brake of Lindner's FDP in the Scholz coalition since 2021 have led to underinvestment in public infrastructure. Merkel's lack of investment in digital technologies, overdependence on Russia for oil and China for markets during the decade in office are all leaving Germany in bad shape in 2015.

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Turkey's finance minister Simsek praises the independence of the central bank, as prime minister Erdogan and the Economy minister Zeybecki put political pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. Erdogan says the half percentage cut in rates to 9.5% is "a mockery of this nation." Governor Basci of the central bank has said in the past that such calls are part of Turkish political culture and the bank remains independent. Inflation is high at 9.38% and expected to reach 10% in May 2014. The central bank forecast is for interest rates at 8.33% by the end of 2014. India, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia, face high inflation and depend on capital inflows for growth. Analysts say investors are likely to reduce Turkish assets if Governor Basci is forced out. For emerging markets political protests in Turkey, Russia (with the added volatility created by the Ukraine crisis), India, and Brazil, have led to capital outflows and increased uncertainty. The situation is reversing itself in India with the election of a business friendly government and in Indonesia following the recent election....

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The BBC's security correspondent looks at the cyber espionage being conducted from Russia during the U.S. presidential election. The U.S. director of national intelligence has pointed to the Russian government as the source of hacking into U.S. databases. U.S. intelligence officials say this is intended to interfere with the U.S. election process in some way. It follows hacking into the DNC database of the Democratic Party.

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What a change DJT's first 100 Days and actions on immigration and tariffs , Ukraine and Russia, have made in China's and World relations in Asia, and in Europe - all for the better, significantly better relations worldwide.  China has worked out a peace settlement in Ladakh frontier with India. It has come together in Tokyo with Japanese prime minister Ishiba and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding hands, and South Korea joining, all three nations vowing to remember history and work together. In Europe Russia is being brought back into the community of nations for big power cooperation with the US after 3 years of war in Ukraine. And Germany has removed its constitutional brake on spending that frees up $1 trillion in funding for infrastructure to replace much of its rail and other infrastructure built in 1900. One would not know this reading the NYT on democracy or the WSJ on tariffs or the Washington Post on assault on federal workforce, or the Atlantic, Politico, DW.com or FR24, Der Spiegel, nor Le Monde, much of the world media slanted on way or another. One does not hear about military exercises so often as the world realizes that so called large economies China, Germany, Japan and India all depend on American goodwill and willingness to give rather than take for most of the post war period since 1950. For the last 6 years in the latter half of the Trump administration and the 4 years of the Biden administration during the pandemic relations between China and the US deteriorated and China first retreated into its own then opened up a bit. The initial idea that it could manage the DJT trade actions evaporated as Biden continued the DJT first round of tariffs. Now Navarro, Lighhizer, and his deputy Jamieson are all back advising DJT for anew round of reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for not stopping fentanyl flows.  In 2022 in eastern Ladakh China's PLA had a big standoff with Indian forces in eastern Ladakh at Galwan and Pangong Lake. The Quad was active with Australia India and the US in Indo Pacific and China conducted military exercises close to Taiwan.      ...

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An extraordinary moment in history took place at Rajghat Gandhiji Memorial in New Delhi on September 10, 2023. The leaders of 20 largest nations from all over the world observed a moment of silence after devotional hymns at the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi. Click on original article to pull up the larger picture and take our On the Spot Quiz on which countries were paired together on either side. On either side of Modi are Widodo (Indonesia) and Lula (Brazil), next to them either side Macron and Biden, Albanese and Sunak, EU's Michel and Leyen , Erdogan and Yeong, Fernandez and Meloni, Qiang and Kishida, Lavrov and Scholz, Sissi and Ramaphosa, Rutte and Trudeau. Can you tell which countries each pair of leaders are from? Answer below for our first On the Spot Quiz. Answer: France and US, Australia and UK, EU's pair, Turkey and South Korea, Argentina and Italy, China and Japan, Russia and Germany, Egypt and South Africa. It is an exceptionally well thought out arrangement. With Indonesia and Brazil on either side of India, you have the core of the aspiring population of 1.7 billion people more than anywhere else on the planet Earth, who think alike, act alike. And next to them are leaders of France and US, Australia and Britain, and the European Union, who are resolutely backing the shift in agenda- debt assistance, tripling renewable energy, and a new infrastructure building effort for ease of living.   ...

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This BBC report shows how much has changed with Germany's erstwhile leaders. From 1998 to 2005 Mr. Gerhard Schroeder was head of the German government. His ties with Russian leaders and Gazprom have led to severe criticism in Germany. He survived an effort this week to remove him from the local chapter of the Social Democrat Party. He now faces a loss of his office and staff and other privileges in the German parliament. The Budget committee of parliament says "he no longer upholds the continuing obligations of his office," says this report. Mr. Schroeder has filed a suit against the German parliament in the Berlin Administrative Court. This BBC report shows how things are changed in 2022- Merkel, Schroeder, Steinmeier and other politicians of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats face intense public skepticism of their role in a situation where Germany faces a cold winter with gas rationing. It is the Greens with Robert Habeck who are faced with the hard work of finding the energy to meet the shortfall and to build back on renewable energy to fight climate change. Very little was done under the previous administrations it now appears, as the public looks back with regret. ...

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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After 2 years of the pandemic's devastating effects on health, governments around the world decided to protect ordinary people from the effects of higher prices for staples and food with the increase in inflation. This WSJ report takes a detailed look at different countries and how they after coping with the effects on total debt and debt servicing needs of moves such as subsidies and tax cuts. The situation is exacerbated by the Ukraine war which affects wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia, and the high oil prices as a result of the war. The effects shown by country are- China- consumers are protected from high oil prices by regulated retail gasoline prices. As oil prices keep going up state owned refineries will bear a disproportionate share of the burden of high prices. India- The government has set aside $40 billion in aid as subsidies for oil and fertilizer. This will support farmers and consumers for fiscal year to March 2023. It will make it harder to cut the budget deficit from 6.9% of GDP to 6.4%. Pakistan - A subsidy of $1.5 billion was given for diesel, gasoline and electricity by the Imran Khan government. This did not have IMF approval and talks are taking place on the IMF program between the government and IMF for it to continue. Rampant inflation has led to reduced popularity of the Imran Khan government. Argentina- A new program to refinance $44 billion in debt with IMF assistance is being affected by the subsidies for oil and electricity. About 800,000 tons of grain are being diverted to the domestic market from exports. Agricultural producers such as Argentina have better protection from higher food prices. In Argentina 40% of the people are living below poverty and the country has 50% inflation.  Malaysia and Indonesia- Both countries are exporters of commodities and higher prices could provide additional revenues to meet higher import prices, says the WSJ. Egypt- higher prices for wheat imported from Ukraine and Russia where Egypt gets 70% of its wheat needs have increased cost of subsidies by $1 billion. Kenya- Fuel subsidy costs will increase by $500 million over 2 years. Europe- In France 400 million euros relief package and in Spain 500 million euros relief package for energy price increases. In Germany cash payments to taxpayers, heavily discounted transportation tickets, and price caps on gasoline and diesel.   ...

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Senior Republicans Wicker and McConnell both push for the putting pieces of the defense puzzle in place so that American can offer leadership to the world in the 21st century. Biden has put pieces of the puzzle on the economic front, these are the pieces in defense and security. On D-Day 80 senior Republican leader Mitch McConnell cautions against the lethargy of so called left parties and the isolationist tendencies of so called right parties. He says America should put preparedness first, that the better part of valor is to build credible defenses before they are necessary so that American leadership is not doubted further as it has been before. He commends the plan put forward by Roger Wicker in the US Congress Senate Armed Services Committee. The plan calls for raising defense spending to about 5% from 2.9% now over 5-7 years, with $55 billion more in 2025. Wicker says the military has a backlog of $180 billion just for maintenance. For the Navy 357 new ships by 2035, for the Air Force 340 additional fighters. This in light of China's additions and in light of the Russian economy being put into a position for a long term conflict with NATO over Ukraine.  ...

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...