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Canada election: NDP to lose seats to 5 of 343 total seats in parliament. Liberals and Conservatives even with Conservatives favored on housing in April 2025. Pollievre could be the next prime minister from Conservatives.

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Justin Lahart points out that concealed in the good profit performance of Ford Motor for the third quarter 2012 is a cause for concern. Ford market share of light vehicle sales in the U.S. market declined to 15.3% in the first 9 months of 2012 from 16.6% in 2011, according to WardsAuto. Ford's quality in the Consumer Reports' annual reliability survey shows Ford ranking 27th of 28 brands.

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The trade figures for Dec. 2012 show the deteriorating picture for Japan's exporters. This supports the reasoning of the new LDP government of Shinzo Abe to keep the yen down to support exporters. Figures for the full year show Japan was able to maintain a current account surplus of 4.70 trillion yen only because of investment income from overseas. The merchandise trade deficit for 2012 was the highest since 1985.

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Huaneng Power China's largest power utility company announced that electric power generation went up by 40% in the 1st quarter of 2010. Datang International Power said its electric power output was up by 33%. Continual power plant construction has led to China building 80% of the new generating capacity in recent years. Over the next 10 years China plans to spend $150 billion or so to increase capacity nine fold- it already has 21 nuclear plants being built. Much of the nuclear plant building knowhow is being acquired along the way. The Lingao plant in Guangdong which was started in 2005 and will be completed this year, uses 50% local content. In the next unit to be finished in 2011 it will reach 70%, and by 2012 China expects to reach 100%, and gain the ability to export its knowhow.

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President Obama told a press conference after the Supreme Court hearings on the healthcare law: "For years, what we've heard is the biggest problem on the bench was judicial activism or the lack of judicial restraint, that an unelected group of people would somehow overturn a duly constituted and passed law." In doing so Obama was framing the argument he might use should the Court rule against the law, putting the Supreme Court in the role of villain placing its judgement ahead of elected representatives, as the U.S. moves into the presidential election in November 2012.

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Statistics Netherlands shows rapidly declining consumer confidence in the Netherlands in 2012.

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The Pakistan Supreme Court decides not to impose a prison term on prime minister Gilani for not pursuing a corruption investigation of President Zardari, opening the way for the present government to complete its five years in office. This has placed severe strains on the government in Pakistan. The next step appears to be early elections, probably in October-December 2012, ahead of the end of this government's term in office in March 2013.

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Moody's downgrades the credit ratings of 26 Italian banks in May 2012. Italy's largest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, showed net profit of 804 million euros, up 22% from the prior year. Of this 183 million euros was from capital gains made using the ECB low cost loans under special ECB financing to buy government debt. The ECB financing was through the Long Term Refinancing Operation launched by the ECB in December 2011, which benefitted Italian and Spanish banks.

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Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

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Francois Hollande leads in public opinion polls for the second round of voting in France's presidential election by 56% to Sarkozy's 44% in February 2012. Sarkozy has closed the gap for the first round of voting. Sarkozy' popularity has suffered from being president at the time of the global economic crisis of 2008 and the current eurozone crisis, and for his aggressive style. Hollande has been consistently underestimated in France with a nice guy image, but has proven to be a persistent campaigner and effective voice for the Socialist party in the current economic crisis.

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Geopolitical problems and installation of US air defense systems in South Korea led to Chinese restrictions on South Korea. This led Samsung to reduce its labor force in China from 60,000 to 18,000 in 2023. It shifted operations to India and Vietnam. It is Vietnam's largest exporter and makes 20-30% of its global smartphones in India. Apple is only now beginning to shift to India. This is called decoupling or de-risking after an excessive concentration of manufacturing by companies like Apple in China.

Xiaomi took a large share of the local market in China from Samsung, another reason Samsung reduced presence in China. It still gets advanced components from China. In India Samsung has a dominant market presence. Because India is a price conscious market Apple has only a small market share in India.

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Doctor are suffering from a "demoralization syndrome" says Eric Reinhart, physician at Northwestern University. He sites one study that shows universal access to health care in America could have prevented at least 338,000 deaths during the pandemic. Overwork comes from physicians retiring from the healthcare workforce in large numbers. In 2021 117,000 physicians retired and only 40,000 physicians joined the workforce. Another 20% will retire in 5 years. Burnout itself comes from a realization that the system is failing its people and you are working within it without the social and cultural narratives that supported previous generations of physicians. It is these narratives of honesty and service that are the essential parts of the human condition that are lacking without access to good health care for all the people and the education to promote good health.

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In working class areas of Northern Ireland, both Catholic and protestant, there is areal sense of disillusionment. As sense that the promise of opportunities never materialized. Educational underachievement and child poverty has increased, made worse by the cost of living crisis. Twenty five years after the Good Friday Agreement ended sectarian clashes between Catholics and Protestants, there is the feeling that this part of Ireland has been left behind economically. The lack of a government in Stormont means decisions for improving health and education or providing social services are not taken.

The 2020 elections showed Sinn Fein focusing on the economy and improvements in the quality of living. In this sense all Irish people are looking for a better life, better governance, and interest in their future from the outside, particularly now that the pandemic is over.

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AP News describes Biden's long association with Irish poets W.B. Yeats and Seamus Haney. In an earlier presidential run in 2008 he said- "I believe with every fibre of my being that we have a chance to make hope and history rhyme." In the 2020 campaign this happened and Biden believes today that this is reflected in the hearts and sentiments of the vast majority of the American people. 

Haney's poem uses these words in a translation of the Greek playwright Sophocles. From Haney's The Cure at Troy:

"History says don't hope On this side of the Grave

But then the longed for tidal wave of justice can rise up. And hope and history rhyme." 

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Abdulrazak Gurnah, a native of Zanzibar and Tanzania writing in English wins the 2021 Nobel Prize for Literature. His prose has inflections of Arabic, Swahili and German. He left Zanzibar at age 18 years after a violent uprising in 1964. In "Admiring Silence" he reflects on the experience of migrant refugees caught betwen two cultures and remaining silent about their true feelings. The prize is given at a time of migrants reaching Europe in large numbers from Africa and the Arab countries of North Africa to Germany.

The chair of the Nobel Committee Anders Olsson says about Gurnah- "He ha consistently and with great compassion penetrated the effects of colonialism in East Africa, and its effects on the lives of uprooted and migrating individuals."

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The Oxford vaccine is to be combined with a dose of Russia's Sputnik vaccine in a study to determine if this will provide improved results. The idea is to test whether two doses combined of Oxford and Sputnik vaccine can provide better protection than two doses of the same vaccine. Trials will begin by the end of 2020. This is being done under the concept of heterologous prime boost which has been adopted in  vaccination programmes against other diseases.

,Both the Russian and the Oxford vaccine use a modified version of adenovirus, a common cold virus. This is stripped of disease causing genes and given genetic instructions that make the coronavirus cause a spike in the protein when it passes it to the human cells. This then triggers an immune response.

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A chaotic return of school children to school in September 2021 in most of Europe and America, because of a lack of clear statement on the rules to be followed for mask use, social distancing, and testing. Most children are also returning to school without vaccination.  It is also happening at this time in September when the Delta variant is spreading. US president Biden's decision for vaccine mandate for 100 million or two thirds of American workers comes at this time of uncertainty in schools about the future and coronavirus variant. In the US rules are being set school district by school district, at a time when vaccines are not approved for children under 12 years. One leading school administrator in the US says "it's as chaotic as you can get."

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Meticulous preparations in France for the Olympics. This report shows Macron at the Olympics Aquatics Centre built at cost of 188 million euros. The budget in 2012 Olympics in London overspent by 200%, France will do it for about 20% overspend, says the Sports Minister. Macron says "Everything is a cause for vigilance and attention, nothing is a cause for worry or paralysis, that is my and our state of mind." When the Olympics open on July 26 this year it will be on the river Seine, with hundreds of flotilla boats. It is a unique effort as even the housing complex was built so that after the Olympics are over the housing could be reused to serve residents of a poorer neglected suburb of Paris. The river Seine is being cleaned up for swimming

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US president Biden makes these remarks at Emmanuel Church in Charleston, South Carolina. Biden tells this South Carolina audience that the idea of the South fighting for States Rights was presented as the South's cause in fighting the Civil War after the end of that war. This he said was a distortion of the truth as the Civil War was fought to end slavery in these United States once and for all, which for America was "the original sin." Biden says something like this is happening today as the truth is being distorted. Much of this history of slavery began by the seventeenth and eighteenth century in Charleston itself. It is here that Biden began his successful campaign for president in 2020 and was the inspiration for his effort.

 

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Food costs for eating at home have actually come down by half since 1960. Charts on the US Department of Agriculture site (USDA) show US food costs for family budgets at 13% of personal disposable income for eating at home in the Kennedy years the 1960's. This has come down by half to 5.7% in 2024. In that period eating at restaurants and outside has doubled to 5.7% of personal disposable income. When people complain about food inflation this is an important factor, eating outside also leads to less control of intake and right nutrition, consequently leads to poorer health outcomes, and a growing share of health expenditures in America's national budget. It hits both the family budget and the national budget and then comes back to hit health outcomes.

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The pandemic is bringing new hope to smaller towns and rural areas in Europe. For decades the migration from smaller towns to cities led to depopulation and decline. With the pandemic the situation is changing and offers new hope. In rural parts of Galicia, Spain, small towns are seeing some revival with enough children now in schools to keep them running. People from cities are moving to smaller towns and rural areas during the pandemic. The housing transactions in smaller towns and rural areas are up by 15% in Spain in 2020. 

In the small town municipalities in Galicia, Spain, town officials are trying to build a new sense of attachment for younger families, in a long term strategy. This WSJ report looks at this trend in Spain and in Europe.

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The difficulties posed by the absence of Xi Jinping at New Delhi G20 Summit are discussed here in the WSJ. Today September 9 the G20 leaders from 20 nations meet, absent will be Mexico's Obrador, China's Xi, and Russia's Putin. China's premier will attend the meeting. China's Xi met with India's Modi at the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, last month. China's premier is a close associate of Xi's and his chief of staff for decades, so that any suggestion that Xi is reducing contact with other world leaders in 2023 is incorrect. Xi will meet Biden at the APEC meeting US is hosting San Francisco Nov. 12-18 that will focus on Asia Pacific nations.

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Gen. Milley is being succeeded as chairman Joint Chiefs by Air Force chief C. Q. Brown. General Mark Milley completed a 4 year term as chairman Joint Chiefs at a ceremony attended by president Biden. He told the crowd- "We do not take an oath to an individual, we take an oath to the Constitution, to the idea that is America, and we are willing to die to protect it." Milley is a Bostonian whose father a Navy Corpsman fought in World War II. He was picked by former president Trump just as former Attorney General Barr and former vice president Mike Pence were picked by Trump, yet Pence, Barr and Milley, all had serious differences with Mr. Trump. All defended democracy and the transition from one president to another in January 2021.

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Pokhara airport Nepal cost about $200 million but it does not get international flights from India which make it unsustainable. On the 10th anniversary of China's Belt and Road which has invested $1 trillion in development projects in poor countries of Asia and Africa, NYT's Wakabayashi, Sharma and Fu look at the China project that built a new international airport at Pokhara. CMAC initially submitted a bid for $305 million about twice what it would otherwise cost says this report, which was lowered to $216 million. Nepal signed a 20 year agreement with China. Only Chinese firms would be used in construction. A quarter of the loans at no interest. The rest a loan at 2% interest with repayment starting in 2026 from the Export Import Bank of China. 

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"They are not doing a goddamned thing" about climate change, says Gavin Newsom about large oil companies. "I came here on a car that uses gas. I'm not naive. Nor am I naive about their deceit and delay, and as a consequnce of the delay" in climate change action. As Gavin Newsom begins a second term as governor of California, and sets his sights on the 2028 presidential elections, he makes climate change action a key part of his platform. By 2035 a ban on the sale of gas powered cars. By 2045 no oil drilling in the state, By 2045 a mandate to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A new law requiring major companies to self disclose their green house gas emissions. Such is the pace he is setting. He just