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China is still interested in a trade deal with the U.S. even after Mr. Trump signed a bill passed by Congress that it criticized as interference in its internal affairs. Mr. Trump's signing statement gave China an opening to continue its persistent effort to seek a trade deal that would lessen the effect of tariffs on its economy. It mentioned "constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations," and stated Mr. Trump had signed the bill "out of respect for Mr. Xi, China and Hong Kong." This has credibility because Mr. Trump has consistently supported an effort to bring a peaceful end to protests and any efforts to that end that Mr. Xi has and would continue to make. Both sides see the role of the biggest economies in the trading system as too significant to be affected by different views on Hong Kong, as long as mutual respect is sustained.  

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The NHS Nightingale hospital was built in 9 days by converting the ExCel convention center in east London. This is the largest hospital of this kind ever built with 4000 beds. Prince Charles opening it by video link from his home in Scotland said it was " a spectacular and almost unbelievable feat of work." The hospital is named after the founder of modern nursing Florence Nightingale. The British government drafted hundreds of army engineers to help contractors build the hospital in record time. It will need 16,000 staff and hundreds of volunteers. 

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France moves to a mandatory health pass for most activities as cases rise 150% from 7000 last week to 18,000 week of July 20.

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The Guardian follows key speeches and developments at the Labour party conference in Liverpool. This comes as the Labour party leads the Conservatives in the MRP poll by 12 points 45 percentage points to 33 points. Labour is favored in its approach to the cost of living crisis and climate change. Keir Starmer is steadily closing the credibility gap created by previous Labour administrations on policy for families and workers and conviction which has given Boris Johnson and Liz Truss an advantage in the past. Mr. Biden has faced and overcome a similar problem created by Democratic administrations in the past of a lack of conviction to help families and workers in the US.

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Mark Thompson who led the BBC for 8 years till 2012, then led the NYT till 2020 reviving its news business, is now the new head of news channel CNN. CNN faces declining audience and management turnover. 

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US president Biden holds his first formal news press conference of 2022 on January 19. It comes at the end of Biden's first year in office. Biden's achievements include 200 million Americans vaccinated, and $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed with a direct impact on the nation's infrastructure gaps. A $2 trillion Build Back Better plan for building healthcare and education, and a climate change plan are next on the agenda requiring the president to increase support for national revival and addressing challenges of climate change.

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This report in The Economist magazine cites the success of Ethiopian Airlines with 10 million passengers a year going through Addis Ababa airport. Other newer airlines such as Uganda Airlines are being started with the idea of helping the economy and providing reliable connections to other countries at reasonable prices. Tanzania is following Uganda with its own airline.

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For Kamala Harris cooking is a form of meditation, the kitchen a place to relax. Kim Severson shows this side of Harris who may even carry the tradition of cooking Sunday dinner into the White House. Looking back no one comes close. Kamala loves to cook, hopes to write a cookbook, has her favorite cooking experts, such is her passion for cooking.

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Demand for firewood has doubled in places like Slovakia in the heart of Europe. Slovakia had 85% of its gas supplies sent by pipeline from Russia compared to 65% for Germany. All this is changing with the lack of Russian supplies.

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European Union GDp growth was 4% higher than a year earlier in the second quarter of 2022, according to EU statistics agency. On an annualized basis this is 2.8% higher than the 2.0% in the first quarter of 2022.

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Xi tells Senate majority leader Schumer on a visit to Beijing that China has every reason to want stable relations with the US. Xi meets Biden at a November Summit meeting in the US.

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The move by the US Fed to cover the deposits at the Silicon Valley Bank to limit the fallout of the bank's collapse on the US banking system. By taking the step that the bank posed a systemic risk the government's deposit insurance fund will cover all deposits at the two banks rather than the standard $250,000. Any losses will be covered by a special assessment on banks and there will be no cost to taxpayers.

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The debt brake put into the German Constitution by Angela Merkel's government in 2009 to limit the structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP during the 2009 financial crisis caused by poor banking behaviour, and in the 2015 eurozone debt crisis with overborrowing by Greece and Spain, is no longer relevant in 2024. It can be said that Merkel made some mistakes- not investing in digitization, in infrastructure and making the German economy dependent on low cost oil and gas from Russia. Putting the debt brake in the German Constitution and setting it at 0.35% of GDP except in emergencies adds to these mistakes, because it deprives policymakers and government of the minimum needed flexibility to meet changing situations in the interests of the German people.    It means there is no money to invest in the country's future, no money for infrastructure even when it is old and crumbling for roads, bridges rail stations and airports, no money for digitization of the economy in which Germany has fallen behind, not enough for defense, and no money to fund needs in education, healthcare, childcare. And not enough money to invest in climate change action. Absent this investment the German economy falls behind, jobs become precarious and public dissatisfaction leads to volatile political situation. ...

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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The 6.6% growth for 2018 is the lowest since 1990. Sharply lower growth was seen in the closing months of 2018 after a economic slowdown and trade tensions with the U.S.

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With better currency reserves and lower debt the Asian countries are in a better position than in the 1997 crisis. But a big problem will be lack of export markets. In 1997 Asian countries could export their way out of difficulties and the devaluations actually helped exports. And domestic markets are weak with weaker currencies making imports more expensive. In the past 10 years consumption as a percent of GDP has fallen in China and elsewhere in Asia outside Japan, even as exports as a percentage of GDP have grown by about 30%. And this has implications for Russia, Brazil, Australia and other countries which send soyabeans, mining products, commodities and oil to meet Asian demand. Riskier still is the prospect as Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia reminds people. is that when the tide goes out you can see the rocks for the first time which were covered by the hyper growth of China. China may see a big increase in nonperforming loans for its banking system, loans tied to the real estate sector where prices are falling. ...

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Turkey's recognition for Syria's national coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

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Labor party in UK gets 35% of the vote with Conservatives at 26% and Liberals at 20%, in Britain's local council elections. Other parties including the Greens gained 19% of the vote. There isn't much the Conservatives have done to help the British people meet the cost of living crisis. The economy is in worse shape and the country is not prepared to take on the climate change crisis. Britain gets closer to a general election.

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France's regional elections show president Macron's party has failed to covert national power into grassroots support. Macron's En Marche party was reduced to just 10% of the vote. Some called it a slap in the face for Macron's party. It was hastily setup during Socialist president Hollande's last year in office in April 2016 by one of his ministers Emmanuel Macron. The National Front of Marie Le Pen on the far right also lost support and won just 19% of the vote. About a third of the vote went to candidates from the former Republican party of president Sarkozy. Xavier Bertrand from the Republican party, which is in the Gaullist tradition, was one of the winners and emerges as a presidential candidate. Only 34% of voters turned out with very young people and people over 35 not turning out to vote. It appears that voters are now disillusioned with the party of Macron and Marie Le Pen that had hoped to win voters from the two traditional parties the Gaullist party and the Socialist party. The socialists did well in western France and have gained at a regional level. The Gaullist party, called Republicans under Sarkozy now looks to gain at the national level. The situation in Germany shows voters shifting back from the far right back to the traditional parties. In the regional election in eastern Germany the AfD far right lost to the CDU recently. Voters are beginning to return to the traditional parties. In Germany this includes a shift to the Greens party that has gained as the voters shift to moderate parties. Macron lost much support and was seen as not sensitive enough to people who had struggled to make a living because of changes in the economy and the urban rural split, social upheaval. He had a popular prime minister during the first wave of the coronavirus  in 2020 who Macron removed as this would create a candidate who might run against him in the national elections. A series of terrorist actions led to a sense of a lack of safety which added to voter unease and the shift to the traditional centre right Republicans.  ...

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Yousaf Humza comes from a family that immigrated from the Punjab state in Pakistan in the 1960's to Scotland. His grandfather worked at a Singer sewing machine factory in Clydesbank, and his father worked as an accountant. He studied for a Masters degree in Arts at Glasgow University and entered politics as a parliamentary assistant to Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon during the early days of the SNP. He held several ministerial positions before becoming First Minister. He is a Sturgeon loyalist who defeated challenger Elizabeth Forbes 52% to 48% in a close election for leadership of the SNP party.  His election is seen as a transitional period in the same way as Rishi Sunak's winning the leadership of the Conservative party after Boris Johnson like Nicola Sturgeon lost support. This is because of divisions within the SNP and in the Conservative party, and the rising popularity of Labour during a cost of living crisis after the ravages of the pandemic had affected working families in many ways. Both are from Punjab province of the British and the two provinces of Punjab in independent India and Pakistan. In fact the election of Humza as SNP leader and First Minister, the defeat of Elizabeth Forbes, provides Labour with an opportunity to win as many as 20 seats in Scotland for Keir Starmer of Labour to make it to No. 10 Downing Street, according to reports in The Times. ...

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The situation in poor neighborhoods of Jakarta, Indonesia, where workers in the informal economy need to work to make a living selling out of food stalls, and in other ways. With the lockdowns making this difficult during the surge in coronavirus in Indonesia, poverty is increasing and families struggle to survive. The covid social aid is not working as efficiently as in India where the prime minister had introduced various schemes including direct bank deposits to every one of India's vast population of households.