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Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

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The U.S. government sold its last remaining shares in auto company GM booking a loss of $10.5 billion- a recovery of $39 billion dollars of the $49.5 billon dollars given to GM. The Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., points out that the cost of bailing out GM and Chrysler was about $13.7 billion. The benefits were 1.2 million jobs protected in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis. It also preserved $39.4 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections in 2009 and 2010. The Treasury Department estimate of the cost is about $15 billon, including money invested in GM's former finance arm Ally Financial Inc. President Obama says the effort helped create 372,000 new jobs in five years. Treasury Secretary Lew summed it up by saying "it helped stabilize the auto industry and prevent another Great Depression." Other intangible but larger benefits in the long run were building up the companies anew with new pay structures the auto companies could support in a globalized economy, bringing in new management and discarding of old mindsets and culture, new relationships with unions and customers, committment to achieving fuel efficiency targets with new technologies in cooperation with the U.S. government guidelines, and renewed confidence of millions of employees in the U.S. auto sector. It is also the one area in which the Obama administration scores a clear win, and in which president Obama took the greatest interest as senator. That the public did not fully appreciate the significance of the step is more a reflecion of public frustration with how the companies were run by the old management, and a continual reminder of the importance of good management for the U.S. industry and economy....

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This article provides exceptionally detailed and useful graphs showing how much the debt limit was increased each year since 1993 and how Republicans and Democrats in Congress voted to support the increase each year. As Rep. Steny Hoyer pointed out in Congress both Democrat and Republican presidents have increased the debt limit to the point where U.S. debt is $17.3 trillion in 2014. Marking a change in strategy Republican leaders Boehner and Darrell Issa voted in Jan 2014 in favor of stand alone debt limit increase to March 16, 2015, with almost all Democrats supporting it. Republicans added spending limit and other conditions to debt limit increases in previous years leading to a standoff with the Obama administration and recurring crisis talks with last minute deals. Strategy has now shifted for the Republican leadership to focus on the goal of winning the Senate to control both houses of Congress and preparing to elect a Republican president in 2016.

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Guardiam Oped by Keir Starmer for Britain and Mette Frederiksen of Denmark  December 9, 2025. Both leaders of socialist parties in Northern Europe, and Starmer now keen on following the example of fighting illegal migration set by Mette Frederiksen in Denmark. "When trust in government to confront the challenges of today falters, our sense of shared belonging can begin to crack. As the prime ministers of two great European nations, we will not let this happen." "That’s why we are both taking practical action to fix the asylum system. Denmark has led the way here, with tough but fair reforms which have delivered results. Last year, the number of people being granted asylum in Denmark was the lowest in 40 years, excluding the Covid year of 2020. The UK has taken similar steps. After years of gimmicks and failed policies, we are going further than ever before with action at home – surging removals of those with no right to be here and making settlement reliant on integration and contribution, while pushing for coordinated international action too." This addresses the problem of illegal migration to Britain that is threatening to create further divisions in Britain as if Austerity, Brexit divisions, followed by Covid have not rocked Britain enough already. Starmer says he will protect Britain's borders to protects its democracy, and that responsible progressive governments can and will deliver on the change people are crying out for- Britain will follow Denmark's example. They will join Italy, Germany, Austria and other nations that are moving in this direction. ...

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900 million eligible voters in India means this is the largest election ever. The election will take place in 7 phases in April and May from April 11 to May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23. The election is for 543 seats in parliament, the Lok Sabha. Turnouts are high with 66% turning out in the last election that brought Mr. Modi and the BJP to power.  Unlike elections in Britain a lot is spent in each election, about $5 billion in the last election and double that this time. The U.S. elections in 2016 had spending of $6.5 billion as a comparison. Women vote at about the same rate as men and more women than men are expected to vote this time. Prime minister Modi won the last election with promises of development and infrastructure. He is delivering on infrastructure but building manufacturing and generating jobs in the formal sector remains a tougher task for any administration in 4 years. During the first term Mr. Modi made needed changes including introducing the GST tax to integrate India's fragmented market and get rid of a patchwork of regional state taxes. He introduced a whole range of projects and yojanas which are setting the stage for widening the middle class, and improving living conditions. Some of the problems such as the bad loans in the banking system date back to previous administrations and the government has taken steps to clean up this problem by refinancing banks and introducing a bankruptcy law. This has slowed GDP growth to about 7%. However this would have happened under any administration.  The brief war with Pakistan in February 2019 has added another dimension to this election with questions about whether this may help Mr. Modi because of his strong stand against terrorism camps in Pakistan.  In the end it all comes down to whether the public still believes the BJP party under Modi is best qualified to develop the infrastructure to modernize the country and improve services, and whether it can create enough of the manufacturing capabilities to generate jobs needed. It may not be that the BJP under Modi has  not made mistakes in the process of learning how best to tackle development, but whether a patchwork of regional parties led by the opposition Congress party is in a position to provide the strong decisive direction to make quick decisions on development. Getting the agreement of a number of regional parties such as the party in West Bengal state or the Uttar Pradesh state when it was under a previous administration of Mrs Mayawati means an even slower rate of decision making as it leads to lack of speedy decision making. Whether voters have short memories and forget the slow rate of infrastructure development under previous administrations or have a willingness to give the BJP a chance to show what it can do under Modi for development can eventually decide this election. An example of what this means is in how the Mumbai Metro is being pushed through to timely delivery- Metro Rail's head Mrs. Ashwini Bhide simply says she feels for the people of Mumbai who have suffered from delays in development of needed infrastructure for so long, with millions doing appalling rides in a creaky old rail system. In her view it should have been done yesterday. It is this attitude that can make or break the current administration, and whether it can get this message through to voters one more time. Most who have this attitude are aware that China is now laying enough concrete every two years than America did in the whole 20th century, as reported in the Guardian newspaper, and are equally passionate about delivery of services and rapid development of badly needed infrastructure.         ...

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Even though tensions are rising in the Korean peninsula, the South Korean stock market is booming. The Kospi index i up 17% in 2017, with an eight day increase in July. Small investors are coming back to the market. The government is seen as stable, and exports are strong, leading to bullish sentiment, even in Seoul for investors who are shrugging off the missile testing risks.

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Israelis from across the political spectrum say the nuclear deal with Iran in negotiations with the U.S., Britain and France, threatens Israel. Israel's nuclear experts say the 12 month breakout window for Iran to break the agreement and rush to develop a nuclear weapon in 12 months is not sufficient, because of the time it takes for detection and develop the response. Israelis have a deep distrust of Iran's intentions. On the other side of the Middle East the Saudis are also expressing serious concerns about the negotiations giving Iran enough leeway to keep the nuclear program and make a weapon at a future date. The proposed agreement creates further disagreement between prime minister Netanyahu and U.S. president Obama.

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Settling payments between airlines and travel agents cost about $10 with paper tickets and $1 with electronic tickets. processing of paper tickets with its elaborate systems behind it cost about $3 billion on the 400 million tickets sold outside the USA, add to that the costs savings for the USA tickets sold where about 96% of tickets are now electronic then it adds up to a large saving. About 84% of tickets worldwide are now electronic.

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What was it like to be an American in those days? Sense of duty and a fighting spirit. Col. Dave Severance was commander of the Marines that landed on Iwo Jima, the 7 mile long volcanic island 660 miles south of Japan, on Feb. 19, 1945. The picture of marines raising the flag on the top of Suribachi mountain was taken as Marines battled entrenched Japanese troops. James Forrestal, Secretary of the Navy, was on the beach below, says this report in NYT, as Severance passes away at age 102 in La Jolla, California.   This picture has become a classic of American resolve and spirit since then. It is also about humility with what Queen Elizabeth calls "self-discipline and quiet good humored resolve" of the British and by extension Americans.  When asked about the photo and his role in Iwo Jima immortalized in John Wayne's role in The Sands of Iwo Jima, Severance said- "I never thought about it. Just that I was a Marine for 30 years and I never ended up in jail." ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's role as backup lender increased with the pandemic. The U.S. central bank lent half a trillion dollars to counterparts overseas representing most of the emergency lending at the time in 2020. It eased a dollar shortage globally, helped stop a market selloff, and continues to support global markets in 2020. The Fed is now the global source of dollar funding, which builds the role of the U.S. currency a the dominant currency. Countries that benefit from the Fed are Australia, Singapore, South Korea, Britain, Japan and European Union countries. On March 31 the Fed launched a program that let 170 central banks around the world borrow dollars against their holdings of U.S. Treasurys adding confidence.  To understand the dollar's dominant role about 88% of 6.6 trillion dollars in currency trades taking place daily involve dollars according to BIS. By end of 2019 U.S. dollar denominated debt securities and cross border loans reached about $27 trillion up from about $17 trillion in 2010. All the talk of having another reserve currency by other central banks has not happened. ...

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Howard Luttnick became an expert in SPAC's to build his financial business. SPAC is a publicly listed shell company created to take a private firm public through a merger. Howard Luttnick, the nominee for Commerce Secretary, used his experience on Wall Street to form SPAC's which made money for the finance professionals who set them up as they secured ultra cheap shares, but which as this WSJ report shows did not do well for many investors. Luttnick has called SPAC's as private equity for the public market meaning the public can get access to new idea companies including new tech through shares- sports betting firm DraftKings or space tourism firm Virgin Galactic in which ordinary people and wealthy individuals or companies can invest. Luttnick's comapny Cantor Fitzgerald owns three companies two publicly traded worth $2 billion and paying out $37 million, according to the WSJ, and  a third company which offers investment advice to SPAC's. It helped SPAC's raise $19 billion to take companies public, No.2 in this business after Citigroup. ...

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About 18,000 people in 134 countries were surveyed by Hubbub, a international group, based at Durham University. The survey found men and women need 5 to 6 hours of rest doing activities in which they are alone- doing things which they find restful which can vary by person. The survey shows the people who are rested do better on a well being scale. These activities include watching television, doing hobbies, gardening, taking a jog or a walk, reading, listening to music. The rhythms of work, of how we use time, also affect our well being. The most problematic thing is the notion that somehow when we rest or take some time to do restful activities we are lazy, say the authors of the study. Of the activities reading came first, then being in a natural environment, being on one's own, listening to music, and doing nothing in particular. About two thirds of people feel they were not getting enough rest. Interestingly the wellbeing gradually decreases when it is over 6 hours- so it is something like engagement in life combined with periodic rest periods that produces good results.  And the fading boundary between rest periods alone and work because of cell phones and other devices is not a positive. ...

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The Takata airbag recall increases by 35 million to about 63 million, about one in 4 cars in the U.S. by May 2016. The issue is connected to Takata's use of ammonium nitrate which poses a safety risk leading to explosions. The findings by 3 separate investigations from Honda Motor, Takata, and 10 automaker consortium have led to the massive recalls. A Takata engineer raised questions about the use of ammonium nitrate in the 1990's, and the company has fumbled in its response to the safety concerns.

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Housing market looks weak in Juy 2010 with the U.S. Census Bureau reporting single family housing starts falling in June by 0.7%. Permits for single family starts fell 3% in June 2010. A Wall Street Journal quarterly survey shows rising inventories in 28 metropolitan areas. Inventory was up at the end of June 33% from a year before in San Diego, and 19% in Los Angeles. Compared to 2008 when the banking crisis caused problems, now it is the general economic conditions that are acting as a drag on the housing market.

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China is closing energy inefficient aging factories. The Chinese government plans to close 76 factories in cement, 279 in paper, 175 in steel, and 84 in leather as part of this effort. This still leaves China with a lot of work to do to acheve the 20% reduction per unit of economic output in 2010 compared to 2005, that its current five year plan calls for. Efficiency went up by 14.4% in the first four years of the current plan, but went down by 3.6% in the first quarter causing serious concern.

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This Journal editorial calls the point in the Obama speech calling for Israel to return to 1967 borders a serious misstep. At its shortest point the Journal points out, the distance from the West Bank to the Mediterranean coast is 9 miles. This makes such a major geographic factor critical to shaping a peace with the defensible borders Israel needs. This may actually make the peace harder to reach by putting Obama behind a Palestinian position that Israel will not accept, as prime minister Netanyahu pointed out on May 19, 2011.

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A camera placed on a train records the trip from Oslo to the coastal city of Bergen in Norway and Norway's NRK television shows the slowly unfolding scenery for hours. A coastal ferry makes its way up the Norwegian coastline in 2011 in slow moving television. Salmon swimming upriver for 18 hours and live streaming on television This is all part of slow moving television shows in Norway and a way to break away from the endless craziness of daily television and take a long pause from everyday pressures and the hectic pace of life.

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Panasonic CEO, Kazuhiro Tsuga, says the company is conducting a strategic review of 90 business areas in July 2012. He said Panasonic still has businesses that are losing money and about half of its businesses are providing less than 5% profit on revenues. He said the charges for the restructuring process could exceed the 41 billion yen target, because the company "will take the action we need to take." He said the company will look for partnerships in the TV set business in China, especially if partnerships mean the businesses will do better.

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Glaxo's 2008 earnings take a hit of $400 million from a settlement of a five year investigation by the US attorney's office in Colorado and the US Attorney's office in Massachusetts. The investigation was about the manner in which Glaxo marketed its antidepressant drug Paxil and the drug Wellbutrin SR. Glaxo is said to have promoted the depressants for off-label uses. This follows settlements of $2.3 billion by Pfizer for off-label promotion of painkiller Bextra. Eli Lilly settled with $1.4 billon for similiar charges on antipsychotic medicine Zyprexa.

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Anecdotal evidence such as huge jewelry sales in Hong Kong and smaller repatriation of funds earned overseas by Chinese companies suggests outflow of funds from China is picking up. Also the quarterly pace of accumulation in foreign exchange reserves dropped by 74% over the course of 2008. In he 4th quarter 2008 it reached $40.45 billion, lowest point since 2004. Chinese government may be slowing its purchase of Treasuries. And policy may be shifting away from letting the yuan to appreciate as export industries are hit hard by lower foreign demand.

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Abbott Labs acquisition of Piramal Healthcare for $3.7 billion gives it 7% of the Indian market. Acccording to IMS Health emerging markets drug sales for 17 countries went up from $42 billion in 2000 to 126 billion in 2009. Anlysts expect 70% of global growth to come from these areas in next 5 years.

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

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A revolution is taking place in the lives of rural families in India. Under the Jal Jeevan Mission put forward by the prime minister clean drinking water from tap water will reach every family in India. It was launched on Aug 15, 2019 and plans to do this by 2024. The impact is huge. Out of 180 million rural families only 33 million families have clean drinking water from tap water in the country. Clean water brings life to the countryside and access through individual tap water connection brings a revolution to people's lives in a country of 1.2 billion people. This report in the Economic Times tells us what most of us do not know that with the growth in population from about 300 million after independence in 1947 to 1.2 billion today and the drought conditions in parts of the country, the per capita water availability has fallen sharply today. Dropping from 5000 cubic metres of water per capita in India in 1951 to 1545 cubic metres of water in 2011.  The infrastructure capital to be invested is 3.5 trillion rupees or $ 50 billion. $50 billion in cement, pipes, construction, pumps, equipment, wages, conservation, skill building, knowledge in water management to revive the rural economy. Hit hard by coronavirus it boosts the rural economy. The infrastructure project could be a model for other Asian, African and Latin American countries.  Cholera and other water borne diseases can never be eliminated without clean drinking water from tap water for all families in India. It means so much during this pandemic.  ...

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Nvidia's Head of Engineering, Jonah Alben, is from Schenectady, upstate New York. Here he is credited with exporting the latest US advanced chips to China by reducing their effectiveness. US administrations Biden's and DJT's say this pushes the rules of export controls. It also undermines the US lead in advanced technologies needed for the US to keep the peace in the Pacific and in Europe as new tensions emerge over Taiwan and in Eastern Europe. For years the US egregiously restricted the flow of technologies to democracies such as India and allowed a concentration of semiconductor manufacture in Taiwan, over concentration of manufacturing in China, both of which led to supply chain issues in recent years and pose supply chain issues in the future. Ironically restrictions on technologies sale to India which with 1.4 billon people, and a similar culture in Indonesia forms homogenous culture of 1.7 billion people, is the only place of this size where parliamentary democracy has taken root. With an exercise of legislative assemblies through elections in all Indian states in the 1930's under the British with Mohandas Gandhi's leadership and example. Because of Gandhi and the leaders who preceded him Dadabhai Naoroji and Vivekananda in the 1890's India has older democratic forms than Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain and most of Europe, all of Asia, Latin America and Africa. It also has among the ordinary people a deep respect for Lincon, FDR and his fight to help Gandhi with Sukarno fight the British and Dutch Empires to bring freedom to 1.7 billion people.  ...

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The strange story of an aging ship in extremely bad shape from a Black sea port in Georgia with a 2750 ton shipment of ammonium nitrate with a crew on unpaid wages making its way to port Beira in Mozambique in 2013. It is leased by a Russian owner living in Cyprus who would make $1 million for transporting the shipment to Fabrica de Explosivos de Mozambique. It makes an unscheduled stop in Beirut after problems with seamen on the crew to pickup some heavy machinery which might help pay the ship's crews wages. The machinery does not fit and in any case the ship is in such bad condition and cannot handle any machinery.  The port authorites are interested only in the docking fees which the indebted Russian owner does not pay and abandons his leased ship. The port of Beirut impounds the ship for unpaid docking fees which turns out to be the reason the ship remains in Beirut harbor. The ship fails shipping standards and takes in water, it remains in Beirut harbor till 2014 when the ship sinks. Before that the Beirut authorites for some strange reason unload the ammonium nitrate and leave it in Hangar 12 warehouse where it remained till it exploded yesterday. The authorites never gave much thought to the ammonium nitrate and its dangers till after unloading it. After unloading no one accepted responsibility. The Russian who had leased the ship was living in Cyprus and took no responsibility. The government of Lebanon also did not know what to do with it.  Repeated attempts by the port authorites asking the government to take some action for disposal fails to lead to any action. There is now a sense that Lebanon is a failing state because of the nature of this incident.   ...