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Surging investor interest in passively managed Vanguard index funds. Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund takes the leading position in the mutual fund industry. Assets pass $3 trillion in 2014. Warren Buffett advises his trustee to put 90% of his net worth of $66 billion in very low-cost S&P 500 index fund, suggesting that it be Vanguard's. Vanguard is based in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

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Production delays, outsourcing issues and other problems are now hurting Boeing with cancellation of orders as airlines with lower profits in today's economic uncertainty are unable to take advantage of the new fuel efficient 787's in timely manner. Quantas first placed its order for upto 115 Dreamliners in 2005, and it hoped to reduce fuel costs with the 20% more fuel efficient Dreamliners than its 767 planes, which it hoped to retire. 28 Dreamliners were to be delivered by the end of 2011. This never happened as Boeing ran into production problems and only 17 were delivered to all airlines by September 2011. With the global economic uncertainty and slowdown Quantas is predicting a 90% drop in pretax profits for the fiscal year ending in June 2012 to A$50 million. With the situation changed Quantas decided to change the order by cancelling the orders for the larger 787-9 Dreamliner and keep the order for the 15 smaller 787-8 jets to save $8.5 billion. This follows a change made by China Eastern Airlines to cancel orders for 24 787s and buy smaller single aisle 737s for domestic flights. As a result Boeing's total orders stand at 824 in mid 2012, with only 7 new orders since 2007. Boeing says it needs to sell at least 1100 Dreamliners for the 787 program to be profitable. Its own forecast is for sales of an additional 2700 small twin aisle jets like the 787 between 2012 and 2031, with Boeing getting half of the market. The larger longer range 787-9 model will start delivery in 2014 and another version for more capacity on shorter routes the 787-10 is being discussed. Both programs Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and the competing Airbus A-350 program have suffered a series of production problems, outsourcing issues and delays in recent years. ...

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Building extensive subway systems in large cities is the next focus for China's infrastructure building effort. China's prime minister, Li Keqiang supports "new urbanization, with people at the center." Building convenient mass transit for cities with subways and light rail is seen as a way to improve living in urban environments. Other related priorities are water supply, garbage disposal and more sidewalks. Subway lines reaching further into the fringes of cities helps push population out further and lead to less overcrowding and pressures on limited space in core areas of cities This also takes pressure off increasing automobile use inside the centre of cities, reduces overall automobile use in urban areas, and frees up money for consumers to spend on products other than automobiles. This fits in with the plan to urbanize China, by taking pressure off property prices, reducing air pollution from automobile use, and improving quality of life. It is also seen as a way to stimulate economic activity in the fringe areas as subways extend further to outlying urban areas. An example is the $300 million three station line to Kunshan, an extension above ground to Shanghai's subway, which is expected to connect with a line to Suzhou. China's cities have spent about 22% of the total debt of $1.76 trillion in 2010 on transportation infrastructure, according to national audit. The subway and light rail effort is taking place in 26 cities with new or expanding lines, according to the Transportation Technology Development and Planning Research Center. Subways charge much less in China compared to New York- 2 yuan or 30 cents compared to $2.50 base fare in New York city, and will need local government and state subsidies. ...

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The electricity grid in Africa is being strained by electricity demands of mining companies. Power outages are costing African economies as much as 2% of their GDP according to World Bank estimates. Energy shortages in South Africa are creating blackouts in South Africa and neighboring countries Botswana and Zambia and affecting the mining industry in these countries. South Africa's energy company Eskom is petitioning regulators for a hike of 50% in electricity prices to reduce demand. Shortages of electricity have increased prices of platiinum and other metals in the commodities industry. Mining in South Africa produces 7% of GDP but consumes 17% of the electricity leaving less for domestic consumption and for industry. Eskopm was late in ordering new plants not taking action till 2004. For Africa the total electricity generating capacity of 63 gigawats supplies 770 million people about what Spain generates for 40 million people. And the expression energy poor means that this shortage in urban areas means the rural poor wil have no electricity for decades to come. And in places like energy rich Port Harcourt Nigeria electricity is inconsistent or in dire shortage. An accountant at a construction firm in Dakar, Senegal has to choose between paying his child's school fees or paying for electricity, chooses to pay for electricity as prices have gone up by 88% in 3 years. And rural areas of Africa have little hope of electricity. This is another sign of how adverse effects of huge energy consumption in places like China and the wasteful consumption in the USA affect global energy prices and in turn affect the poorest in Africa. In places where the voices will never be heard. How boom times in some Asian and westen economies can lead to choices like fuel guzzling vehicles and energy wasteful plants in China that reverberate across Africa....

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David Wessel says the U.S. is in a liquidity trap. He says the 500 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages was a less significant event than the decision by the Bank of New York Mellon to charge clients for keeping large amounts of cash. In a liquidity trap investors are indifferent between keeping their money in cash or in investments providing a return, because interest rates are so low. Today the S&P 500 have in total an estimated $963 billion in cash. The solutions for gettting out of a liquidity trap include government stimulus spending, devaluing the currrency, and generating inflation that could make it easier to reduce government debt. The stimulus approach was adopted in the first 2 years of the Obama administration and there are now increasing pressures to reduce the U.S. deficit. Because of the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currrency and large sovereign holdings of U.S. currency, an outright devaluation of the dollar has not been considered an option. At the same time the weakening of the U.S. currency has helped exports and is encouraged by the Fed and the U.S. government. In a sense all three options are being tried in different degrees and ways. The stimulus was the early response till the deficit concerns began to increase and require attention, the efforts to lower the value of the dollar to increase exports is underway, and the rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed were intended to produce inflation (and avert deflation). All with limited success....

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The remarkable composition of the most vibrant immigrant filled city in the world, with 47% of the employed being immigrant and foreign born, mostly from developing countries such as Dominican, Chinese, Mexican, Guyanese, Jamaican, Ecuadorean, Haitian, Trinidad and Tobago, and Indian. The city's immigrant population is 3.1 million, 37% of the total population of 8.2 million. The report is written by Joseph Salvo, director of the population division of the City Planning Dept. and Arun Peter Lobo, deputy planning director. Dominicans are 380,000, Chinese 350,000, and Mexicans 186,000. During 2002 to 2011 Chinese population went up 34%, Mexicans 52% and Dominicans 3%. Queens has 1.09 million immigrants, half of that borough, Brooklyn 946,500 or 37% of the borough. The 37% immigrant foreign born population of the city compares to 27% for the New York Metropolitan region. Other interesting details- the growth in the Chinese population of about 89,000 in the city is greater than the entire population of Indians of 76,000, and the large growth in the Ecuadorean population by 22,000. The Indian population went up by 8000 or 12%. Indians in the New York Metropolitan region were in the upper income groups in neighborhood income comparable to people from UK, Germany and Israel, with Chinese being from lesser neighborhood income groups. Median income for Indians in the city was $84,000 compared to Chinese of $43,000, with 28% of Chinese immigrants having a college degree compared to 65% for Indians. This suggests immigrants from China are from poorer areas....

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The stories of Dylan Roberts, 32 years, in Rockford, Illinois and Alfred Butt, 42 years,in Hohenlockenstedt, Germany. Roberts lost his job at aChrysler plant in Belvidere, near Rockford, Illinois, and Butt lost his job a German auto parts maker. Roberts gets a $64,000 severance package, and 59 weeks of unemployment insurance, with apossible additional 13 weeks, with monthly check of $1426 that is 27% of his income of $64,000 a year when employed. attribute 33 weeks of the 59 weeks to the stimulus measures of President Obama. Butt has 4 months as atransfer worker at full pay, which can be as long as 1 year, then he has till May 2010 at 80% of his pay when employed full time of 2700 euros amonth. The transfer company gives job training and job hunting advice. He continues getting his medical insurance benefits which are provided by the state. Roberts loses his health insurance with his job, and hopes to pay his expenses for a2 bedroom apartment with his girlfriend who makes close to $1500 as an elementary school teacher. He will take a2 year electronic engineering course with a local college using $6000 from Obama's Dislocated Worker's Program. But he isn't sure if he can do his studies after one year when his unemployment benefits expire. Butt can afford to take a vacation to Cyprus and his lifestyle is not much affected he says. His wife works as a nurse at a rheumatism clinic. Butt is like the 64% of Germans who say the crisis is not affecting them personally. Roberts is like the 87% of Americans who say this crisis id hurting them in their persdonal lives. To pay for the state funded benefits the total wage tax burdenas a percentage of labor costs for Butt is 52% in Germany. FOr Roberts it is 30% in the USA. France is at 49% Spain at 39% and the UK at 34%. Germany's public expenditures for these labor benefits are 2.97% of GDP in 2006, the USA's are 0.38%. Spain and France are at 2.32% and the UK at 0.61%. This also explains why the impact in countries like Germany and Spain is not felt so badly as in the USA. In SPain there is also the lower mobility and the safety net of family support helping people cope making it possible to cope with 20% unemployment without serious distress and hardships. See the link to Spain's unemployed....

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The total cost to rescue and overhaul Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be about $658 billion, according to estimates by Standard and Poor's. The cost so far is $134 billion. S&P estimates show that the government may have to inject an additional $280 billion into Fannie and Freddie because of the continuing housing crisis. Analysts estimate that it would cost an additional $400 billion to adequately capitalize any new entities that take the place of Fannie and Freddie.

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 This message from Pope Francis is especially relevant today during coronavirus. Francis says of the mistaken priorities of today away from healthcare, education, infrastructure and "coherence" in society and the pain and hardship this is causing in society, there is much that can give people thought to reflect on. Francis  new book, "Let us Dream: The Path To a Better Future" will be out December 1. "If we are to come out of this crisis less selfish than when we went in, we have to let ourselves be touched by others’ pain." He cites a line in Friedrich Hölderlin’s “Hyperion” that speaks to him, about how the danger that threatens in a crisis is never total; there’s always a way out, that where the danger is, also God plants the saving power, a way out. And not simply a way out, God also gives human beings a chance to grasp for and hold onto renewal if only one makes the endeavour. As it says in the Bhagavad Gita God gives man a chance to warm himself near the fire, only those who make the effort to go to the fire can feel the warmth, it is a choice man has to make. And again God says in the Bhagavad Gita that he is not partial to any man. Ever since the global financial crisis hurt working families in the middle and lower classes hard in 2009 because of banks misbehaviour and greed, Pope Francis has called for countries in the western world to heed his warnings about the dangers of greed and corruption to us all. Even George Washington warned of this in his inaugural address, so the warnings are not new. Reminding people once again he says "we cannot return to the false securities of the political and economic systems we had before the pandemic. We need economies that give to all access to the fruits of creation, to the basic needs of life: to land, lodging and labor. We need a politics that can integrate and dialogue with the poor, the excluded and the vulnerable, that gives people a say in the decisions that affect their lives. We need to slow down, take stock and design better ways of living together on this earth." The pandemic has exposed the paradox that while we are more connected, we are also more divided. Francis is never tired of warning that the present political and economic structures and people who staff them have not felt others pain, so he reminds us it is hard to build a culture of encounter in which we meet as people with a shared dignity, within a throwaway culture that regards the well-being of the elderly, the unemployed, the disabled and the unborn as peripheral to our own well-being. Where only self preservation counts. Francis reminds us of the Christian concept that no one is saved alone. This is not just an abstract concept. When Francis was only 18 years and a second year student he was admitted to a Buenos Aires hospital for a severe respiratory disease, so severe that he lost a part of his lungs. He remembers the day August 13, 1957. He understands this pandemic from personal experience. He knows what it is like to be on a ventilator. Surgeons removed the upper right lobe of his lung. Francis struggled to breathe. He was  saved Francis says not even by the doctors, but by a Dominican sister, a senior ward matron, who had been a teacher in Athens before being sent to Buenos Aires. She understood that Francis was dying and after the doctors left asked the nurse to double the prescription dose of penicillin and streptomycin. Sister Cornelia Caraglio, knew better than the doctors from her regular contacts with sick people what they needed, and she had the courage to act on that knowledge.      ...

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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All sides joined the President at the White House, as part of his consensus building efforts, and to get aseat at the table in restructuring health care. The insurers and health care providers, including technology providers, all committed to cutting the cost of health care. New social insurance programs to cover 45 million uninsured Americans, and to make health care affordable for businesses and individuals, will be unworkable at currently projected rate of increase in health care costs of 6.2% a year for the next decade. The industry promised to reduce that by 1.5% through voluntary efforts, even though there is skepticism about whether they will deliver. The insurers are against a government sponsored health plan fearing it will drive them out of business. Insurers and health care providers are lobbying against the cuts in their Medicare payments, and insurers are fighting Obama's cuts to their private Medicare Advantage plans by a total of $176 billion over 10 years. Doctors are fighting a 21% cut in their Medicare fees scheduled to take place in January 2010. Pharmacuetical companies and makers of medical devices are concerned that new products will have to pass a cost-benefit test before being approved for coverage under Medicare. Its just that they all see the continued rise in costs as somehow unsustainable, especially in the current economic crisis, and share the feeling with business and the rest of the country that the system is broken. At the same time like the banks and bank executives, health care companies and their executives go on lobbying aggressively and doing things the old way, which raises questions about how well these systems that are broken can be put on the right path....

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Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

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Japan has accomplished a remarkable transformation of its workforce and its economy even as the working age population is declining. For years Japan was seen as a stagnant economy with a rapidly aging population. In recent years Japan has shown how a change in policy can work. Since 2012 working age population declined by 4.7 million, yet the number of people working increased by 4.4 million. The proportion of the population in the workforce rose sharply since 2012. To do this Japan turned to three underutilized parts of its workforce and population- the elderly, women and new immigrants. Japan has pursued an active policy of reviving the economy by bringing women into the workforce and breaking taboos on new immigrants. In 2004 Japan raised retirement age from 60 to 65, and then made it mandatory for companies to raise or abolish the retirement age, or introduce a system for re-employing workers who retire. This has changed Japan a lot with Japanese men working well into their 60's and 70's. In the west coast city of Kanagawa which now has a bullet train to Tokyo, out migration was a big problem that added to a declining workforce. The head of Ohara, a family owned company that makes desserts tried a novel method of advertising to seniors in apartment blocks and starting attracting seniors to fill worker shortages. It found that seniors came to work on time, performed even tedious tasks, and brought a great deal of experience. Since then the regional government has started programs to get more retirees and women into the workforce. The special programs teach small companies to adapt to the needs of retiree workers who can work in shorter shifts of few hours and do less physical jobs. Women need predictable hours to pickup children from school and shorter work weeks, for which the regional government program helps companies adapt by sending in specialists to guide the companies. As a result female participation in the workforce, for very long a big handicap is no longer so. Female participation has jumped to 63%, higher even than that in the OECD where the average is 62 years.  Japanese women had a M curve that meant they worked most in their 20's. less in the 30's with children, and more in the 50's. First the government tried to correct this with extended parental leave, increased childcare, and rewarding companies with good work-life balance. Then in 2009 the effort accelerated with employers required to offer 6 hour days if a worker asked for this. Under prime minister Abe's "womenomics" effort child care was significantly expanded- by 2015 Tokyo went from 28 to 38 spots open for every 100 two year olds. Alongside these efforts the Abe government tried to get companies to rethink their assumptions about quantity of work and overtime as productive effort. One could work shorter hours and be productive, and the old notions were seen as resulting in lower productivity. As fathers with parental leave took on more responsibility the changes transformed the attitudes for women at work. Most remarkable is the quiet change in immigration policy. The government allowed foreign construction workers to address shortages for work on the 2020 Olympics. It introduced a 3-5 year visas program for nursing care workers. Two new categories of visas will add 340,000 additional blue collar workers over next 5 years. The total foreign born workers in Japan doubled from 2012 to 2017 to 1.3 million. ...

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Bondholders and the Greek government are stalled in talks and waiting for Germany and the IMF to come up with the 14.5 billion euros that is due on March 20, 2012. It may suit the bondholders holding out for a higher interest rate in the 4-5% range for the new bonds to be issued at 50% of face value with long term maturities, but is bad for Europe. This Journal editorial points out that this is bad for European taxpayers and points to other steps that can be taken which are being discussed in European circles. One step is for acollective action clause to be inserted for the existing Greek bonds under which all bondholders have to accept losses if two thirds of the bondholders agree to accept losses. To ensure the safety of the Greek banking system Greece would restructure the bonds held by Greek banks so that they continue to be acceptable as collateral with the ECB, and issue new bonds to the ECB with face values, interest rates and maturities matching existing holdings. The idea is to make it possible for Greece to reduce its total debt and its debt servicing costs- which is really the only way out of the crisis. The ECB and Greece would use the collective action clause to restructure the Greek debt to reduce interest and debt servicing costs on new bonds to be issued. The Journal editorial says it should also mean Greece and the ECB are not required to put up the 30 billion euros in up-front cash that was agreed to in a poorly devised agreement in 2011....

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Would hedge funds that short Lehman's stock want to create an environment of perceptions of uncertainty around Lehman. ts quite possible. Lehman's CEO Fuld flew back from India over the weekend and went on the offensive to dispel perceptions of weakness. According to this report Bear Stearns had $33 billion in total liquidity compared to $169 billion for lehmans which compares with $169 billion for Goldman Sachs. Of this Lehman has $35 billion in cash and liquid assets and $160 billion in unencumbered assets like loans and securities backed by commercial mortgages that it use as collateral to borrow more. Lehman has the highest percentage of liquidity at 25% of total assets compared to other major brokers according to Buckingham Research Associates the source for these numbers. Its here that the Fed's recent decision to lend to the largest investment firms comes into play. As Mr Fuld stated the Fed's decision to create a lending facility for these primary dealers like Lehmanand permit a broad range of investment grade securities o serve as collateral improves the liquidity picture and in his view takes the liquidity issue for the entire industry off the table. Those looking at the downside point to the Level 3 assets of no observable value of $42 billion and the $37 billion in residential mortgages in Lehman Brothers. ...

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Proposals being considered by the Obama administration for overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. One proposal being considered is to keep Fannie and Freddie in a reduced role with safeguards such as an insurance pool of money created by a fee the firms would charge mortgage lenders and banks. The insurance pool would act as a fund to cover losses before the government stepped in. Another safeguard would be to require the firms to hold adequate reserves to cover potential losses. The earlier preferential advantage for Fannie where it ony needed to keep a fraction of the reserves banks had to keep would be eliminated. Under this proposal both firms would shrink their mortgage portfolios over coming years. The White House says it wants to see a winding down of Fannie and Freddie and let private capital be at the heart of a new housing system.

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Carney breaks down Fannie Mae's 2013 earnings figures of $84 billion to show that this is due to unusual factors- such as low interest rates that it gets to access capital from the government, and the reversal of a write-down of deferred-tax assets. $45.4 billon is from the reversal of a writedown of deferred tax assets, $14.6 billion to gains not easily repeated, and about $12 billion because Fannie was able to borrow at 2.06%. (Mortgage securities generated interest income of $22.12 billion. The mortgage guarantee business generated about $12.3 billion which is a result of the 2012 change to the bailout agreement terms) He sees Fannie's core earnings that it could keep generating at about $12 billion. The additional reserve capital requirement that it would face as a systemically important or "too big to fail" financial institution at about $100 billion, making it about 8 years for it reach the reserve capital requirement. The situation at Fannie Mae is not as rosy as the 2013 earnings figures suggest. ...

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A bipartisan proposal of Tim Johnson and Mike Crapo of the Senate Banking Committee to replace Fannie and Freddie with a new system that removes the implicit government guarantee, has the support of the Obama administration. A proposal by Republicans in the House removes the government backstop entirely. Fannie and Freddie stock lost about a third of their value in March 2014 falling to $4.03 and $4.04, erasing sharp gains made in 2013. Under the proposal supported by most members of the Banking Committee, including Bob Corker, it is likely that private shareholders will not be treated favorably.