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Ukrainians, Russians overseas, and Russians at home, faceoff in postings on social media Facebook and other media. The discussion gets acrimonious. Ukrainian musicians in Berlin with a following in Russia from Soviet times protest Russian policy towards Ukraine and find themselves confronting Russian friends.

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How European countries Germany, Poland, Britain, France, and Italy are increasing their defense forces and defense budgets to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its military preparations is shown here in DW.com. Under chancellor Merz Germany plans to invest 5% of its GDP in defense for the first time and build Bundeswehr defense forces as the best in Europe. A key factor says DW.com was the speech of chancellor Scholz three days after the invasion of Ukraine, a speech that changed minds in Germany about the needs for defense in the 21st century. It is called the Zeitenwende or turning point speech on Feb 27, 2022.

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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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The Times looks at troop presence for NATO in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania as the US faces down a Russian threat to Ukraine and a possible imminent invasion. It says contingency planning has been carried out and the US and NATO are prepared.

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European Union plans are for cutting by two thirds current imports of oil and gas from Russia in 2022. The EU's plan is to take down the imports of Russian natural gas from 155 billion cubic meters which represent 40% dependence on natural gas from Russia, the import figure for 2021, down to 100 billion cubic meters. James Henderson, chairman of the gas program and the energy transition research initiative at Oxford Insititute for Energy Studies, looks at how the EU will get this done.  The European Commission's plan is to get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas. New projects for LNG and return to market for supplies that were disrupted earlier would generate 40 billion cubic meters of LNG. Of this 30 billion cubic meters could go to Europe. Another 10 billion cubic meters is expected from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Some of this by delaying maintenance. Conservation and reduced consumption could deliver savings of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this 20 billion cubic meters would come from new solar and wind energy. Roof top solar and installing new wind energy can save about 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This does not include energy saving from industry, particularly Germany, which makes up a significant part of the use of oil and gas. Increased temporary use of coal may be considered and nuclear energy is an option in some countries. These are first step, additional action will be needed to reduce dependence on Russia from the current EU plan of one third reduction in 2022 to two third reduction by the end of the year to demonstrate the EU's resolve in the war in Ukraine. ...

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The MBS visit to France by Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is part of the changing situation in Europe after the war in Ukraine. The EU needs Saudi Arabia on its side as it makes the transition to renewable energy after a cutoff of Russia gas supplies. In this transition Germany and France will be looking for additional supplies from the Gulf region.

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White provides critical insights to understand Ukraine's situation caught up between Germany and the EU on one side and Russia with its aspirations under Putin to bring together former Soviet bloc states. Russia is a critical energy provider for Ukraine and trade relations. The eastern part of Ukraine around Donetsk has favorable opinion about Russia. The western part of Ukraine looks for closer ties to the EU and favors joining the European Union. It was president Yakunovych's reversal of course in turning down an agreement for closer ties to the EU that led to the current crisis and street protests. Putin offered Ukraine $15 billion in loans to sign a trade and economic agreement with Russia. The language used by Russian prime minister Medvedev that Ukraine should not become "like a doormat that people wipe their feet on," shows the Putin administration's views. This was only a day before Ukraine's parliament voted to set a date for new elections, freed former prime minister Tymoshenko and began talks for opposition leaders to be part of a transitional government....

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Rationing of energy would happen if Russia completely cuts off gas supplies to Europe. Prices would essentially become meaningless, says this report. Supplies coming through Ukraine are limited to 18% with the rest of the 38% Russia supplies to European Union coming through other countries or new pipelines. LNG supplies from the US are increasing but not enough infrastructure has been built for this. This may explain also why Russia is acting now on NATO enlargement that it sees as its concern. Increasing shift to LNG and other supplies would make EU less dependent on Russia. NATO countries are also not spending enough on defense with Germany not yet at 2% and Scholz only going up to 1.5%. Russia has modernized its defense capabilities by comparison, the US mired too much in localized wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Russia was never "a regional power" as Mr. Obama had said with a vague understanding of European history, even while America's resources were wasted in two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where American interests were not involved. Today the realization is that European Union and American leadership had failed under leadership of Merkel, Macron and in the Bush and Obama years. ...

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US and Iran accept Pakistan's mediation of the war with a 2 week ceasefire and opening of Straits of Hormuz- April 7 2026. The mediation by prime minister Sharif of Pakistan gave both sides in the war a way to back down. Both sides agreed to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan. As a partner of Pakistan, China may also have a role in setting up a settlement as China and Japan have the most to lose from the Straits of Hormuz being closed, oil prices rocketing up to $115 and higher, and even a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz Straits. Both China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits. Oil prices drop to the $100 level from $115 after the announcement of talks in Islamabad. This is not a long term settlement. After the two weeks US president meets president Xi of China in Beijing shortly afterwards on May 14-15. It is likely that preparations for that trip will involve China and Pakistan working together to get the US and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire. One outcome of this war is as Le Monde has noted- the unreliability of Hormuz supplies and shift to imports from US and Venezuela and other parts of the world for fossil fuels. And with this a renewed effort to reduce the fossil fuels needed by accelerating renewable energy supplies in Europe, India and China. More attention will also be focused on reducing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by all major powers. Removing US involvement in NATO may also turn out to be positive in some ways to bring Russia and US as nuclear powers to better working relationships, and reduce the nuclear arms race and weapons race. For Europe it means meeting needs of Ukraine and improving military capabilities. The overall result may be positive for all countries. The Middle East region will be seen as one in which no powers should get involved in and the Middle East will also find it has squandered its valuable oil dividend in five decades of wars and mismanagement and fall behind the rest of Asia and Europe, the US in economic progress and development. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board looks at the reserves being set aside by banks and oil companies against losses in Russia as the situation in Ukraine worsens in April 2022, and has questions for CEO's that have not made preparations for a similar situation arising in China. Too much is being done on Russia "on the fly." For China 83% of American company CEO's have made no plans for supply chain action for China even after the pandemic hit and after the supply chain chaos from zero covid policies. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have set aside $3.36 billion for Russia, according to Reuters. Shell says it may take charges of $5 billion to write down Russian assets. Exxon will take a similar charge. WSJ Editorial Board says the situation in China with respect to territorial claims on Taiwan are similar, and asks what preparation is being done for China risks. WSJ's Editorial Board says American CEO's should be calculating their supply chain and investment risk now in the event that there is a conflict in Asia. Some of this foreign investment has shifted it says as foreign direct investment as a share of China's GDP is down to 1.2% in 2020 from as high as 4.6% in 2005, according to the World Bank. Much remains to be done. Yet in 2021 despite the supply chain chaos from China's zero covid policies and rising geopolitical plus trade tensions, 83% of American companies operating in China were not considering or were not in the process of relocating their manufacturing or sourcing out of China, according to a recent American Chamber of Commerce in China business-climate survey. A figure that is the same as in 2019, a sign of complacency says the WSJ, one that could be costly, and with Russian write downs today a warning to executives that they should start preparing now for the danger that lies ahead. ...

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James Marson tells the story of how Ukraine volunteer forces helped defend Kviv from the Russian army in the early days of the war. As refugees spilled out on the roads the regular army did not have the mobility and speed that volunteers organized in small units. Volunteers quickly blew up bridges and dams to slow the Russian advance until regular army units could move into action. This was how Kviv was defended in March 2022.

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This report in the WSJ says the increase in Saudi production announced on June 2 will do more for Saudi Arabia diplomatically as it improves relations with the Bdien administration, and much less for oil markets. The increase of 648,000 barrels a day for both July and August is seen as a drop in the bucket. Only Saudis and UAE have spare capacity- estimated to be at 3 million barrels a day of spare capacity. The Russian oil production has already dropped by 1 million barrels a day since the start of the war in Ukraine and will drop further after the European Union oil embargo on 90% of oil supplied by Russia to the EU. Russia may even withhold supplies from the market to keep oil prices high as it is selling oil at a large discount. Russia evades western oil sanctions by selling oil using transfers out at sea and in other ways that do not reveal the source of the oil. Saudis and UAE are seeking better relations with the US to gain security guarantees after drone and other attacks by Yemeni rebels and Iran. Earlier president Biden had distanced himself from Saudi Arabia following human rights situations that led to deteriorating relations. The EU oil embargo, high oil prices that are hurting poorer countries all over the world, and the commitments by the US and other European partners to reduce fossil oil fuels production and increase renewable energy production are now added factors that the US is including in its relations with the Middle East as it seeks to balance different factors. Saudis see an opening for improved relations.   ...

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Mitsui, Mitsbishi of Japan and Shell of the UK are companies with large stakes in LNG projects in Russia. These stakes have continued through the war, with Shell hoping to sell to Chinese companies and no information yet about Japanese plans. Japan has shown no indication of divesting itself of these assets as it pursues its own energy interests during the war in Ukraine. 

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Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

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The struggle for the Donbas region is now centred around the town of Bakhmut with about 50-70 casualties a day and an effort by Russian infantry to advance to the once tree lined town of 70,000. The Ukraine war drags on into the cold winter of 2022.

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In the 2 hour call Xi and Biden discussed issues that are creating serious differences between the 2 countries, the war in Ukraine, Taiwan, trade and tariffs, South China sea and Indo-Pacific issues, global supply chains, food and energy issues. Chinese statement says "those who play with fire will be perished by it. It is hope the US will be clear eyed about this." Xi Jinping takes on a third term in 2022. Biden has spoken with Xi five times since 2021 and the last call in March was to dissuade China from supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. China is opposed to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Biden has said it was a bad idea at this time.

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The rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine and the importance given to it at the level of the prime minister and senior cabinet ministers about the importance India gives to respect for international law, the national sovereignty of countries, and the UN Charter. India abstained from the vote in the UN General Assembly on expelling Russia from the UN Human Rights Council yet as this Indian Express report says India as the world's largest democracy and its policies rooted in the work of Mohandas Gandhi has a clear stand on respect for the UN Charter and international law. It firmly condemned the reported atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine, as Mohandas Gandhi would have done in his own way.

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The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...

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U.S. president Obama reinforces German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent presence in the Baltics," with a visit to Tallinin, Estonia, in September 2014. Obama told people in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia that he would work with the U.S. Congress to place more U.S. equipment in the Baltics and increase U.S. troop presence there. He stated the Baltics are "not post-Soviet" territory. Obama said at a concert hall in Tallinin about Russian support to separatists in eastern Ukraine- "It challenges the most basic principles of our international system- that borders cannot be redrawn at the barrel of a gun, that nations have the right to determine their own future. It undermines an international order where the rights of peoples and nations are upheld and cannot simply be taken away by brute force."

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A joint statement at the G-20 meetings in South Africa on November 20 signed by the leaders of Canada, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany and Norway, and the European Union expresses concern about the 28 Point Plan put forward by US and Russian negotiators. It also says that it includes important elements that will be essential for aj ust and lasting peace. US president has set Nov 27 as a date for Ukraine to come to an agreement. 

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U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

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German chancellor Scholz is making a 2 day trip to the US to meet president Biden. There is a surge in discussion on looking for a way out of the Ukraine war after meeting between US's Blinken and Russia's Lavrov at the G20 meeting in India. India is pushing for both sides to engage in talks to end the war. Brazil has also offered to mediate to bring an end to the conflict. 

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Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck says Germany has plans to almost completely end Russian energy imports by the end of the year. For this to happen Germany has to make extensive progress in cutting oil imports in a short time. By the end of summer the Russian energy imports will be cut by half. The effort is significant because before the invasion of Ukraine Germany received 50% of its coal, 55% of its gas, and 35% of its oil from Moscow. Coal deliveries will end by the end of autumn. 

Habeck confirmed that current contracts with Russian companies to import energy will not be renewed. He also confirmed that Russian gas deliveries will take longer to be stopped- not till mid-2024.

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The revival of NATO in 2022 as America "prepares extensively and carefully" to meet the challenge from Russia as it invades Ukraine. President Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Germany's Scholz and America's Biden form a partnership as the Europeans and Americans join together to defend the interests of Europe, America, Latin America, India and other Asia, Africa, the entire free world in a way that FDR and Truman, with Adenauer defended the free world after the Berlin Airlift in 1948. Biden tells Europe and America the days ahead will be hard but America and Europe and the allies in Japan, India and the rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa, are resolved to met this challenge.

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"Having a country invading their neighbor with impunity that is a dire message to the rest of the world, and we are not making the mistakes of the past." 

Macron speaks of Russian threats to other places, to Moldova and Romania. 

Macron shows a chart of Russian rearmament with increases from 1.2 million men in the army to 1.5 million  and 1200 military aircraft to 1500 aircraft.

'Peace cannot come at any price, by abandoning Ukraine, the collapse of Ukraine."

"We have seen this happen in the past. Who can forget the invasion began in 2014, there was a ceasefire that was agreed to in Minsk and that the same Russia did not keep the ceasefire."

"We cannot take them at their word. Ukraine has a right for peace and security. It is in our interest. And we are working with our European allies."