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Indian PM Modi will take part in the swearing in of a new government in Maharashtra on December 5, 2024. Maharashtra and Gujarat with cities Mumbai and Ahmedabad were part of Bombay state in 1947 after independence. It was also the largest trade and industrial region of India. Today it is poised under the Modi government to deliver industrialization on a scale that matches that of China for a modern Vikshit Bharat over the next decade and to 2040. This is the real significance of this event which in some ways surpasses the US election in significance and the scale of transformation of the largest nation in the world.

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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The 800 foot Chinese ocean carrier Zhen Hua 29 sails into Kingston, Jamaica, from Shanghai on the long route with 5 cranes in epic 3 months voyage through the Indian Ocean around Mozambique- the last of the globalization voyages. As globalization dims these are the last of these voyages. US policy is for its control of the Panama Canal, the Monroe Doctrine in the western hemisphere, pushing out a globalization that hurt American industry and jobs in the USA. China continues on with its surplus capacity make for export policy, the US wants out from these imports, and the EU is wary of imports dependence.  Gemany's Foreign ministry under Wadephul is forming a commission to investigate German dependence on China made products. This is the last of the globalization that started with Clinton, and went on with Bush and Obama, wrecking huge parts of the American industrial base. Cranes- no longer made in the USA, one by one, including ships- no longer made in the USA. The great shipyards of Britain and the US languishing in disrepair! ...

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US president DJT State of the Union Address to Congress Feb 24, 2026. BBC Analysis shows the president going on the offense to take up the issue of illegal migrants, cost of living, and business investment to get the economy to grow. DJT compared the $1 trillion in business investment under Biden over 4 years with the $18 trillion that he had secured in his first year. He said the tariffs were here to stay whatever the Supreme Court decision stated because all the agreements with EU, UK, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, other countries will remain in place as all countries want it that way. The president stated that through tariffs he had secured benefits for getting manufacturing back to the US to create jobs and raise incomes. The Big Beautiful Bill also added to business investment through its writeoff in one time for equipment and plant. The oil price per gallon had gone down to $1.85 a gallon at the pump lowering the cost of living and inflation. He pointed out that the economy was strong with low inflation lower than 3%, unemployment at 4% and ecponomic growth in 2025 close to 3% with some quarters exceeding 4-5%. The US ice hockey team attended the event and the Congressional medal of honor was given to soldiers in the Venezuelan helicopter dangerous mission, and to a World War II pilot who was 100 years old. Transgender was shown as an issue with parents shown with their daughter who had suffered from transgender laws that he asked Congress to change. Calling some of this crazy as parents and families were suffering as a result. ...

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The Biden administration makes its decision- it will continue the tariffs president Trump placed on about half of Chinese imports into the US. It also seeks new talks with China on trade. US is also pursuing other policies on trade that were not pursued by the Trump administration. Longer term it is about alliance building in trade with the European Union, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India. These alliances would jointly approach China on trade, economic and security matters.  Another approach is for the US to build at home. Congress is asked to approve $52 billion in subsidies that the Biden administration wants to give to companies so that they build the semiconductor plants of the future right here in the USA. The Biden administration is also aware that China is doubling down on technology purchases within China from Chinese firms to support its own high tech industries. In response it is laying down a policy of its own for the future step by step. The Chinese market now takes less priority than maintaining technological leadership of the US in all advanced technologies. The Biden administration is steering American industry and technology advancement in this direction. ...

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The European Union's trade relations with China, and the trade and industry relationship between Germany and China built during the Merkel years is a part of the overall trade setup of the Free World that is likely to be questioned by Habeck, Baerbock of the Greens and chancellor Scholz after Mr. Biden's launch of the IPEF economic alliance for Asia. During her period in office Merkel also built the German trade relationship with Russia leading to Germany being dependent on Russia for 51% of its oil and natural gas supplies. The German dependence on Russia for energy is now being reversed by the efforts of Economy Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the Scholz coalition. The supply chain renewal and redesign by president Biden is likely to be followed by Germany and France and the EU. With it more investments will be shifted back to the US and the EU and allies in Asia such as India that offer a large pool of well trained workers similar to China's. In this sense the IPEF arrangement will be repeated in European Union's new relationships with Asia under the Greens SPD German coalition's leadership. ...

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Black or illicit money in India is estimated to be $400 billion to $1 trillion, much of it in the domestic economy. About 30% of land transactions are in black money, and it is growing with 500 and 1000 rupee notes increasing in circulation by about 79% and 106% between 2011 and 2016, according to government sources. The Narendra Modi government has announced that 500 and 1000 rupee notes will no longer be accepted in transactions as of midnight. People have 50 days to exchange them at banks, and banks will keep records so that this money can be taken into account for taxes due. A senior official in the Department of Economic Affairs, Mr. Das, says-"You cannot have a shadow economy representing a substantial percentage of the real economy." Big banks will be closed on Nov. 9, and ATM's till Nov. 11, 2016. Mr. Modi, the prime minister said in a televised address: "In the last few years the specter of corruption and black money has grown." He cited "the challenges posed "by threat of terrorism, the challenge posed by corruption and black money." ...

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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

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Axar Patel says of his 5 wicket haul in India's 1st Test cricket against New Zealand, that he always tries to see to it that he is enjoying his bowling, trying to read the wicket and understand what is happening, how its behaving and plan accordingly.

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Swiss face 39% tariff by US after "disastrous" call by Swiss president to DJT higher even than proposed 31%. Swiss surplus of $46 billion is the issue in US trade. Swiss say they can't import chocolates from the US, the US thinks they can take in oil and LNG. Swiss have not learnt from the UK, EU and Japan, South Korea which came up with solutions to cut deficits with the US, knowing the US was serious to cut it's trade deficits. India faces the same problem as the Swiss, the need to come up with solutions and think that this is a new system of world trade that replaces the old one that lasted for 50 years and is now gone- call it LPF -a level playing field for all countries.

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GE plans to take investment in India from current 2% of sales to 5% of sales in 2010. To do this it will quadruple revenues from India to 8 billion by 2010. GE expects a huge amount of infrastructure spending in developing markets in the next 8 years it estimates this to be about 4 trillion. Separately Indian government estimates are that infrastructure spending will double from $50 billion to $100 billion by 2011 (Indian Planning Commission estimates).

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This report from Taiwan in DW.com points out that German opinion has changed significantly in recent years and is not reflected in Merkel policies. With a change in government to Greens, SPD coalition under Scholz of the SPD and Annalena Baerbock of Greens, German policy towards Taiwan is likely to change. Scholz is seen as having different views from Merkel and is likely to reflect public opinion more closely which is reflected in polls that show 58% of Germans not in favor of Merkel's China policy which moves away from the US. Germany also needs to consider NATO alliance and relationship with US which will be difficult with Merkel policies now that president Biden has made Indo-Pacific  with Aukus and Quad alliances critical to his administration. France has moved closer to India, which will mean pressures from the US and France and German public opinion for Scholz to  come closer to US and France in his policies. A sense that the Merkel period had serious issues and was "grotesquely" backward in childcare, education, digital modernization, infrastructure, climate change, as one German expert puts it, also will make SPD and Greens reconsider Merkel's policies.  After the election there could be a fuller reassessment of the Merkel years and further change in German public opinion as Germans see how much was lost in the later Merkel years in the lack of much needed change inside Germany in addressing the social and economic problems. Merkel may also be seen as having a sensitive relationship with the Biden administration which the SPD and Greens in their different orientation may not see in the same way. Biden's families and workers plan has much that Germans are looking for from the SPD and the Greens and on a scale of $3.5 trillion that the SPD and Greens may see as changing everything.  Population of India combined with South East Asia, Australia and Japan is also about twice that of China, which Germany will feel sets the path for a new policy that reflects a different Europe and a different Asia for the future. ...

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With so much coverage of other aspects of China,  to really understand China and Xi Jinping one has to understand the rural urban situation in China. Xi's long experience as a teenager in the cultural revolution of Mao was in rural areas, the 8 years he spent there till the age of 22, as this report by James Areddy with help of Yijun, Cheng and Qi aptly shows. It traces the shift and mass migration to cities starting with Deng's modernization drive in 1979. This shift of labor to city and town factories as the U.S. and Europe shifted factories and production to China is the story of our times. How it has both helped and hurt China and how it has become the dominant issue of our times, and a lesson for India in the middle of its own modernization and shift of labor to cities. It has helped China modernize with the shift during 1979 to 2016 and run into a road block with president Trump leading a movement in the U.S. of people most hurt by the outsourcing of factories and production to China. It was not meant to be this way. Yet the shift also led to ripping up the fabric of communities and towns with loss of factories across America over three decades. Because China is a large country the impact was huge decade after decade, leading to a backlash against lost jobs in the U.S. and in Europe.  Xi Jinping has romantic view of rural China as he spent 7 years in Shanxi province rural areas during the cultural revolution under Mao. During this period he toiled as part of farm labor alongside villagers which allowed him to get to know villagers and farmers in the countryside well, and formed his view of the world around him. As it is described in a description of the man in Chinese sources- "He arrived at the village as a slightly lost teenager and left as a 22 year old man determined to do something for the people."  China's system separated migrants from city dwellers not  giving same rights to better education, to schools and housing, and official documents separating the two, city dwellers and migrant populations from rural areas. As a result as China modernized and population shifted -shown here in excellent graphic charts over four decades- in 1979 from about 80% in rural areas and 20% in urban the shift goes to 50-50 by 2001. Today it is 40-60 with 60% in rural areas but a population of 40% suffering from severe inequalities and  low incomes. So that GDP per capita of $10,000 for China is deceiving. The real incomes in average disposable income is about $4300 in urban and $1700 in rural area, according to National Bureau of Statistics. High school education is hard enough to get in rural areas, medical care is very basic and the $1700 would hardly get a room in low income housing in a large town in China, says premier Li Keqiang. Keqiang did his masters thesis on urbanization and has studied this shift from his college days. Just as in Gandhi's India, Mao's China is the story of the villages, with 128,000 villages for 600 million people in Mr. Xi Jinping's anti-poverty drive. Hong Kong other issues have to be understood in the context of these concerns of China's leadership today- the sense that strong central leadership alone can keep the country together and bring a decent life to the people in the villages and in the countryside outside the cities.  Modernization of cities still set in the context of China's vast rural population and essential to its full uplift and progress. Xi has allocated $80 billion each year to bring roads, schools, medical facilities, and other amenities including electricity and modern heating. The idea now is to shift people back to the villages, find opportunities for jobs and livelihoods in farming, tourism with guesthouse facilities, and other occupations in the villages. The villages are being turned into attractive places to live one by one in this party drive and providing new enthusiasm and support for the party's efforts. India can learn from this experience in China. The western nations of the U.S. and Europe can no longer and will no longer undertake the wholesale shift of factories with loss of jobs to China or India to offer the prospect of bringing these countries to the kind of urbanization and overall prosperity of small nations like Japan and South Korea, which are a tiny fraction of the population of China and India+ Pakistan + Bangladesh. As a result China is changing strategy now with a return to some aspects of the informal economy in Chengdu with street peddlers and tiny retail, and return of migrants back to better built and improved villages in the countryside. A better life than in cities is possible this view says for people from these rural areas, if the rural areas are given modern facilities and construction and resources are allocated, job creation locally tackled. The villages can offer better air quality, better quality of life where villagers who earlier migrated to cities with ownership of land, when they are modernized with better roads and have better facilities for education, housing and healthcare, better amenities. The new approach is to strike a good balance for urbanization, by modernizing and investing in villages and small towns, so that cities can cope and overall life can be better than with mass migration and wholesale urbanization. It is also a balance that works well for the U.S. and Europe which can redirect manufacturing to their home regions as part of a better distributed and balanced supply chain than the one that was unwittingly built over the last three decades.    ...

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Plans announced by Railways minister Mamta Banerjee for Indian Railways. 1000 kilometres of new lines and 54 new trains will be added in the next year. A fast track panel will be set up for clearance of investment proposals. The Indian Railways budget for 2011 shows new investment will be $9 billion for modernizing and expanding the rail network, up 2.8% from the $8.7 billion for 2010. Indian Railways plays a vital role in India's economy. The company employs 1.39 million people.

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Germany is trying not to choose sides in the trade and security disputes between China and the U.S. Yet it owes a lot to the U.S. from the days of the Marshall Plan and U.S. taking on the role of defending Germany after the Berlin Wall. China was then a partner with the Soviet Union in the Cold War.  Today China is Germany's top market for its car industry. Yet the U.S. export market is much larger than China at $119 billion with China's at $96 billion. In Germany 28% of jobs are linked to exports, and in manufacturing this goes up to 56%, according to Germany Ministry of Economic Affairs. Germany supplied much of the factory  equipment from its engineering companies and the infrastructure that powered up the China transformation. A transformation now underway in India.  There are signs of a shift as engineering companies in Germany grew faster in the U.S. than China, increasing by 6-10% a year. India remains a key growth market for Germany over the next 10-15 years as growth in China slows and India accelerates with its younger demographics and investment in infrastructure. Much of the infrastructure in China is built and it is approaching the saturation Japan reached in the 1990's with additional investments adding little in the way of productivity. Longer term Germany has more potential for growth in countries in South and South East Asia  that will need to make huge investments in infrastructure and technology for manufacturing to meet the aspirations of the people there. Other issues related to freedom going back to the Berlin Wall and the rebuilding of Germany after World War II will emerge. German companies are running out of patience says this report in the WSJ with the bureaucratic obstacles, forced technology transfers, subsidies by state model to extinguish competition, and protectionist approach to home markets, even as state funded companies in China put other companies in Europe, Asia and the U.S. at a disadvantage. Germany will need to transition to a shift in its global relations, a process that is only now taking place. Just as with austerity policies in which it has now made the shift from going with the northern European countries (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Finland) to the Southern European (France, Italy, Spain) in favor of common solidarity even at the short term cost of common debt, Germany now is facing the shift for solidarity with the U.S. for its support of Germany from the period of the Berlin Wall in the 1950's, for the U.S. and European solidarity in the face of the post-coronavirus world. The U.S. showing its generosity and openness to Germany and war torn Europe even as it took on the added responsibilities for creating a new alliance with Europe.   ...

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Hindenburg Research is a short seller who launched an attack on the Adani Group of infrastructure companies in India. Adani Group companies lost about 18.5% of their stock value after the attack. Hindenburg Research is based in New York City and was founded by Nathan Andersen in 2017. It has 5 employees.

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Credit Suisse research of loans at 3,550 nonfinancial services companies in India with total borrowing of $385 billion as of March 31, 2011, shows 30% had net debt more than six times current earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. This is an increase of 50% in 5 years. Goldman Sachs estimates gross nonperforming loans including restructured debt will climb up to 6% of total loans in the next financial year. This is an increase from the 5% in March 2011. The Reserve Bank of India's stress test report of Dec. 2011 forecasts 5.8% of non-performing assets in a worst case scenario. This is twice the current level. This is largely a result of Indian banks increasing lending after the 2008 global financial crisis, with the worst affected and leveraged sectors being private airlines, construction companies, utilities and real estate developers. At the same time prudent regulation has ensured a capital to risk-weighted assets ratio according to RBI of 13.5% at the end of March 2011. This compares with the same ratio at 14.5% as of March 2010. Additional risks come from declining economic growth. Industrial output in October 2011 was down 5.1% from the prior year. ...

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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Big retail supermarket style stores are taking off in urban areas of India. Indian and western companies Tata and Tesco, Godrej, Reliance, Bharti and Wal-Mart, are setting up these stores. A government backed study by ICRIER shows that even though the arrival of the big stores results in a drop in sales of 23% in the 1st year, thereafter sales recover and in 5 years these smaller stores are back to where they started. And gradually the protests like those seen in 2007 are fading from these smaller stores.

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Coca-Cola will invest $5 billion in India by 2020 as part of a plan to invest $30 billion in capacity and marketing in emerging economies. The plan is designed to double sales revenue and volume by 2020. Coca-Cola today has 60% of the Indian soft drinks market, according to Euromonitor Intenational, because it also owns the brands of Parle Agro Pvt. Ltd- Thums Up, Limca, Gold Spot and Maaza. The Parle acquisition gave Coca-Cola a bottling and marketing system on which to base its expansion.

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This article in the Economist says the bad loans in the financial system threaten to derail India's rapid growth. It points out that about 17 percent of all loans are estimated to be non-performing. Government plans to set up a bad bank and have bad loans transferred at steep discounted rate to the bad bank are still at an early stage. India weathered the 2008 financial crisis with a financial system in better shape. Since then a surge in lending has led to an increase in the bad loans. Today both banks and corporate firms are facing this problem. The political system and dysfunctional governance with frequent changes for management at state controlled banks are part of the problem.

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Security for women working in software companies in India is an important issue considering that the number of women in software companies will approach 50% according to Nasscom by 2010, and the poorly paid and sketchy background of many hired drivers in India. Because the women work at odd hours of the night to keep in touch with westen countries clients in different time zones this is a very real issue. The cases of a Wipro and a HP employee in India being raped and killed and drivers charged bring to light an important issue for women employees at software companies and companies in general in India. It is important to attract talented employees for companies to have the best arrangements for safe transportation at additional cost. Parents of these young women and the women should feel that its just as safe as for men for them to work or travel at night. In this case the Supreme Court decision was to let stand a lower court ruling that Mittal CEO of HP Global Soft was liable for prosecution in the case of a rape and killing by a driver of a HP employee, because the company had hired the driver and made the transportation arrangements that led to this death....

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A look at the Palestine conflict from 1947 to 2023. The British Mandate for Palestine gave Britain a role in administering this part of the Middle East after it took control of the region from the defeated Ottoman Empire in the First World War 1914-1918. The League of Nations set up the Mandate with intention to take the people in this territory to independence. The UN in 1947 gave about 56% of Palestine to the Jewish people and 44% to the Arab people. When the Arab people rejected this UN settlement and Arab neighbors Jordan, Egypt and Syria invaded in 1947 about 70% of the territory went to the new state of Israel. There have been repeated conflicts almost every 7 years since and there are factions within Israel and inside Palestine Arabs who have protracted the dispute, including over holy sites in Jerusalem, without seeking the kind of settlement that won peace for Ireland after hundreds of years of British rule and discrimination. The world with its billions of people in China and India who seek development and billions of people in Africa and Latin America who seek a way out of poverty, has no interest in prolonging small conflicts that distract from the importance of tackling climate change, infrastructure development and education, healthcare, ...