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At this rate China and India will through the time young people are being encouraged to pursue reading and education- and through strictly regulated social media and videogames in China and TikTok banned in India- move in the direction of developed nations and the US with 150 million users of TikTok be moving in the other direction where Brazil 126 million users and Indonesia 99 million users are. This report in MIT Technology Review says in 2022 the children and teenagers in America spent 103 minutes on TikTok. Tiktok and Facebook split the social media market with about 5 billion minutes each. If users are on both this could give an average of 206 minutes or over 3 hours a day. Consider that there is a Chinese version Douyin. In China its version of TikToK is strictly regulated for a long time now and nowhere poses the kind of threat to education, reading and building a better educated population in China than in the US. Is that a conspiracy. No, says MIT Technology Review, it is because how quickly and forcefully the Chinese governments regulates digital platforms.  It a clear failure of the US Congress and the federal government that has led to this situation where this may be the first generation of young people that are less prepared for civic responsibilities and are from the amount of time dedicated to social media spending less time on reading to to be knowledgeable, and reading in general for education.  In China action is swift. Take for example video games and addiction. In 2021 the rule was put in that children under 18 could only play video games between 8.00 pm and 9.00 pm on weekends and holidays. They are blocked from using outside of these hours. China is looking for new measures that require creators to obtain a license, and for ways for the government to regulate the social media algorithms themselves.  ...

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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GST is to India what land sales were for China in its phase of rapid development and accelerated growth. It consolidated capital that could be then invested at the national and state levels on infrastructure, logistics for exports growth, creating a virtuous cycle of capital growth that could finance ever widening scale of development projects from metros, subways, rail, roads, bridges, airports, ports, logistics, tech related improvements. This was done in 2017 through a midnight session of parliament that passed the legislation needed. Years of endless discussion were turned into one session of implementing a single major tax system for India, transparent, digitized with new IT  Infosys playing a key role, and providing the pool of capital that has financed 5 years of development to take India past Britain as the fifth largest economy. Its pace of growth over 11% and accelerating with Maharashtra's GST growing at 24% in 2022-2023 over the prior year suggest that this will play a critical role in giving India a large pool of capital for growth. To be supplemented with foreign investment to make New India as a modernized nation. With an economy that will be exceeded only by the US and should catch up to China over the next 10 years. ...

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Biden looks set to having DJT at the White House and attending his Inauguration. He has accomplished much says Pat Schumer, Minority Leader in the US Senate. He also believe it or not looks quite healthy and active, and likely to look like that a few short years hence in 2027-2028. It gives Biden who did in one term for Covid response and vaccines, infrastructure investment and rebuilding America, withdrawal from foreign wars, what has never been done before in just 4 years, an opportunity to enjoy life after 40 years of public service. And by letting DJT tackle issues of Border and fentanyl flows from Mexico and China in the first 2 years, of unfair trade that have not been resolved for decades, so that America can benefit from the the best of both parties resources and strengths. Contrary to what so called "smart heads" say the two party system is working by engaging people in an ongoing vigorous debate and bringing fresh faces into public service. 

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EV sales worldwide in March 2024 went up by 30%. New battery technologies are making EV cost competitive with combustion engine cars. This transition is nearer than we thought. Kurt Kelty of GM who worked on Tesla battery technology for 11 years says “When we reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, I think that’s one big milestone. When you get there, then you’re really going to see the transition happen very quickly—and we’re not that far away from it.” The EV industry continues to make progress even as the industry has slowed with the new government not behind it with incentives. GM is setting its sight on 2028 and is investing in bringing costs down with new battery technology. It is new battery technology that enabled BYD in China to increase production and sales. In 2024 GM hired a Tesla engineer Kurt Kelty with 11 years experience to lead the effort to reduce cost and increase the power and duration of batteries. Kelty really believes in the EV revolution.“I’m a firm believer. Switching to an electric powertrain means better performance, less maintenance, more space inside the vehicle, a lower center of gravity and a higher crash rating. Evolution away from fossil fuels is unstoppable.”   ...

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A directive from the Central Committee of the CCP, China's Communist Party is shown in this report in the WSJ that requires strengthening the work in corporate governance of the United Front Work Departments. This applies to foreign companies according to this directive in September 2020. This report says the European Chamber of Commerce in China has said that "this would have a considerable impact on business sentiment, and could lead foreign companies to reconsider future and even current investments in China."

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Guardian Bikes in Indiana factory was shifted in reshoring to the US in 2022. By 2026 it hopes to change the situation from 90% Chinese parts to 60% of the parts made in the US and prices still within reach for American buyers of $199-$399 for childrens bikes. Other bike makers are hesitating, and some have moved to Taiwan from China.

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Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the Federal Reserve 2006-2011, becoming governor at age 35. He is a partner at the family office of investor Stanley Druckenmiller. Scott Bessent also had connections with the office of Druckenmiller. He is also a lecturer at Stanford Business School and a scholar at the Hoover Institution. He is married to Estee Lauder heiress Jane Lauder, and has spent the years since 2011 at the Stanford School.  Current Fed chairman was appointed by DJT in 2017 and retires in May 2026. If Powell continues as a Fed governor Warsh would take the seat vacated by Stephen Miran when he retires as Fed governor this week. Meantime the Fed under Powell faces an investigation by the Justice Department regarding renovation of its buildings and Senator Thomas Tillis on the Banking Committee says he will not support Warsh until that issue is resolved in favor of Fed retaining its independence. What is unique about Warsh and his selection by DJT? He is a Republican of long standing and his current views are that interest rates can be lower if the Fed reduces its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage securities it holds. DJT's frustration is that Powell raised interest rates to fight inflation and after DJT became president was slow in cutting rates to boost the economy. DJT's resort to tariffs as a tool in world trade to ensure a level playing field with China when all other tools had failed means more uncertainty in the economy and DJT wanted the Fed to support his policies by lowering rates. ...

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West Bengal elections in April-May 2026- the elections come after Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, nearby countries, all changed governments following protests about corrupt governance, mismanangement of the economy. Inside India there is a profound change that is not even covered in the  established media such as the BBC and DW.com. The states of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar, in the northeastern part of India had landslides in voting for the ruling BJP party and NDA alliance for Clean government and Modernization of the economy. A similar vote took place also with a landslide for Clean Governance and Modernization in the state of Maharashtra in the western part of India with the commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay). In the southern part of India in Kerala, the capital city local government in Thiruvananthapuram has also shifted to this Clean Governance and Modernization under the BJP government that governs at the federal level in New Delhi. India is like China and Japan before it, going through massive change to modernize the country with new infrastructure building and rapid development including investments in hospitals, universities and airports, trade logistics, factories for industrial production. The magnitude of the change is reflected inthe population of most of these states being close to 100 million in each state West Bengal(105 million), Maharashtra(130 million), Bihar (133 million), almost the whole population of the US in just 3 of the many states- witnessing huge changes that could mean 20-25% growth rate a year n the next couple of years to 2030 doubling their GDP. ...

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The foreign lobbying by Pakistan and then India in Washington DC for access to the White House using lobbyist firms in the US. This enabled leaders from Pakistan to visit the White House in the US soon after conflict between Pakistan and India erupted over terrorist incident. Terrorist incidents happened in New Delhi and Islamabad in November 2025. The DJT administration may have gained support from Pakistan/Turkey for the Hamas settlement through this lobbying effort. The DJT administration inadvertently put itself in a position of being influenced by lobbying in this case for access to the White House. Following that event China's president Xi Jinping tightened restrictions on rare earths in trade negotiations with the US for a temporary agreement that gives access to the US market. This leaves the issue of illegal fentanyl flows from China and Mexico to the US, important to the US, and of restructuring world trade, also important to the US, major goals of this Republican administration in abeyance.   ...

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Jay Powell and the US Fed have less to worry about from China's increasing demand for oil in 2023 that could keep oil prices high, says this column in WSJ. China says Taplin, has over 50% of oil demand coming from the construction industry, heavy industry and the trucking that backs it up. The construction industry has problems from years of overexpansion, and heavy industry, manufacturing, faces lower demand for Chinese exports from the US and Europe in 2023. This means oil demand will not increase enough to keep oil prices high, says Taplin. This puts the Fed in a better position to tackle inflation, just as the decline in global shipping and spare capacity in shipping, supply chains returning to normal is helping the Fed.

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India China Border and rail connection $40 billion project Chengdu to Lhasa 2025. The infrastructure brings China greater access to the western region of China some of it from the occupation of Tibet in the 1950's that now makes up territory the size of 80% of the contiguous US. India is rapidly modernizing it's side of the border with tunnels and bridges.  This situation is new. For most of history from 1000 to 1950's China had only a remote connection with the Tibetan and Indian border regions where nomadic tribes and Tibetans lived. Very few Chinese numbering by the hundreds or a few thousands may have visited the region as even under the British contacts were very limited with Tibet and border regions in the Himalayas. For China it is far from its major population centers in Beijing and Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzen. And it provides few advantages in spreading over a vast region that is remote and in high over 15,000 feet in the Tibetan and border regions. It is only the invasion of Korea and China by Japan in the close of the nineteenth and early part of the 20th century that has created the idea of having buffer regions that protect it from foreign powers. And this is what may happen over the next 50 years as the region goes back to what it was before the 1950's, but with modernization, as India does not seek to reach out beyond Himalayan borders into regions closer to China. ...

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The number of people employed in foreign firms in Hong Kong declined by 25,000 to 468,000 in 2023, according to Deallogic. Foreign advisory firms face crackdowns and are declining rapidly. Yet companies have not yet pulled up stakes in China.

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Wuhan residents are able to leave the city in China for the first time on April 7, 2020, with masks on.

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Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman gives the following remarks in parliament on the White Paper presented to the 18th Lok Sabha in January 2024, describing the dire condition of the Indian economy by 2013 with mismanagement and "big ticket" corruption. India's Finance Minister Sitharaman describes the situation in three key areas by 2013 that left the economy of India in a fragile state, with projects stalled, development delayed, and capital investment not taking place. She gives as 3 main points of focus- the state of affairs at Defense Ministry, at the Environment Ministry, and for Energy supplies. At the outset she says PM Modi had suggested the need for such White Paper by 2015 so that future generations would know what had happened in India that failed the country at a time when China had already joined the community of developed nations. The issues go back to the coal scandal when coal auctions had to be cancelled by the Supreme Court for irregularities, the misuse of state owned banks leading to a large increase in non performing loans, and the mismanaged Commonwealth Games under government before 2014.  Sitharaman told parliament this had the effect of national security being compromised, Environment as a Ministry becoming a bottleneck, and the leadership failing the country. In the military there was a critical shortage of ammunition and equipment. She cites the Defense Minister at the time having the attitude that independent India has had a policy for many years not to develop the border areas, as an undeveloped border was better than a developed border. She also says Ministry stated that 92% of the Defense Budget was used up and major acquisitions have to wait for the military. Following this Sitharaman cited the scandals of that period and leakages of funds that weakend the country and failed its people. She compared capital expenditures today of 6.22 lakh crores in 2024 thre times the number in 2013 of 2.53 crores. HAL now makes Tejas jets and helicopters in Made in India production. At the Environment Ministry the delays that were 86 days reached a high of 316 days by 2013 for approval of development projects, with 355 projects pending, the nation brought to a standstill with the effects of the coal supplies to thermal power plants being wholly inadequate and Coal India in poor shape. The root of this was said Sitharaman- what everyone in Indian business knew, the term "genteel facts," as the cost of business going up. She cites the changes since then of aiming for Balance and Development- Transparency, Online Green Clearance, Standardized Environment Impact Studies, A new Department of Climate change, International Solar Alliance 2015, Mission Life 2022, Green Hydrogen, Namami Gange, Rooftop Solar. India set ambitious goals at the last Climate change Conference.    ...

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Li Shanfu, China's defense minister meets Rajnath Singh in New Delhi for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting India is chairing in 2023. Rajnath Singh tells Li that border issues have to be resolved for normal bilateral ties to be restored.

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U.S. president Trump announces withdrawal from the Paris climate change accords, saying the U.S. will consider re-entering the agreement  or coming up with a new deal. He said "I was elected to represent Pittsburgh, not Paris." Trump said he was concerned about the environment, and avoided saying climate change scientific evidence was not correct. He based his concerns on the idea that China and India were getting an unfair financial advantage over the U.S. The U.S. had pledged under the Paris accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 28% from 2005 levels by 2025. The WSJ's Stokols and Ballhaus point out that president Trump had the option because of the nonbinding agreements committing nations to a broader goal of reducing emissions to combat temperature change of of 3.6 degrees F, to have modified emissions targets and still remained in the Paris accords. For Trump the motivation may have rested more on politics to shore up support in the Republican party which has largely opposed climate change targets.  ...

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China raised one year lending rates to 5.85% from 5.58% to slow bank lending in China. Rates on deposits at Chinese banks are at 2.25%. The central bank let the yuan rise by 2.1% against the dollar in July 2005. This reflects a careful management of inflation and calls for further appreciation of the renminbi.

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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DJT Macomb, Michigan Rally April 29 2025- DJT The First 100 Days. DJT won in Macomb County by significant margins helping him carry Michigan in 2024.

DJT says- "We’re taking back our country from a sick political class. Instead of putting China first, I’m putting Michigan first and I’m putting America first.” He told the crowd he was supporting Main Street not Wall Street, protecting America from the political class in both parties. Most of the political class and Wall Street had no answer when asked about what they would do with the millions of jobs lost and the industrial base of the US shipped out to China, or keep deflecting or ignoring that question.

 

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The economy slows and China's central banks cuts two interest rates. No major stimulus is planned as in Europe and the US after record debt levels that have accumulated over the last decade of hyper growth. Youth unemployment reaches 19%. The drop in demand for oil from China with the slowdown leads to a drop in the price of oil to about $93 for Brent Crude in August 2022, providing some relief for oil price to the EU and US. China is the largest importer of oil and it takes in 15% of the world's oil supply.

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As George Osborne of the Tories once pointed out China does not want to be thought of as a sweat shop on the Pearl River. And particularly not in a British attitude. How hard does China work is a question Tom Phillips tried to answer Oct 6, 2015 from Beijing for The Guardian. The migrant workers are the ones who work the hardest. And productivity is low. Among the higher classes there are longer hours with the work pressures, family obligations and long work hours leading to insomnia, fatigue, obesity, and ill health conditions. A comparison shows Britons working 1677 hours on average according to the OECD. The average Chinese worker is shown to work 2000 hours, by a researcher at Beijing Normal University. A labor economist in Beijing says as the economy improves and working conditions get better workers are working fewer hours every year. He says China lags behind in productivity. The longer working hours he says are not good for worker's health and for productivity. This was said in 2015 when China was still chasing GDP growth without the level of technology the US and Europe had. Now the focus has shifted to better quality growth in advanced technologies and old factories closed. ...