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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

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Recession forecasts come from economists using obsolete economic theory, not looking at the situation on the ground- continuing this where US lost its industrial base, lost 5 million jobs, tens of thousands of factories, means falling behind to a point where US cannot make comeback as the largest economic power. It is the situation Lincoln faced where between 1830's and 1860 similar to 1995-2025 for three decades the US in one situation saw slavery getting entrenched, and in 2025 sees economic decline getting entrenched. Lincoln's answer was then and it speaks to us now- Fifteen decades ago A. Lincoln stated- "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion. As our case is new we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and we shall save our country." IMF forecast of no US or world recession in 2025-2026. Earlier Chase Bank and other forecasts showed increase in chance of recession. WSJ forecast says 45% chance of recession in next 12 months but also says there was prediction of 60% chance of recession in 2022 and in 2023 which did not happen. ...

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

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DJT and Chase Bank's Jamie Dimon are meeting monthly on the US economy in 2025.

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China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

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The median income in the US in 2024 is where it was in 2019 before the pandemic at about $83,000 with the upper 10% of the population making about $200,000 having a 5% increase. Median income means 50% of the US population makes above $83,000 and 50% below that. In 2024 compared to 2023 slight increase of about 4% for men compared to women, no change for white households, a drop of 3% for Black households, gains of 5% for Hispanic and Asian households, Census Bureau Report shows.

Overall cost of living prices at grocery stores, for automobiles, and housing rental, is what is impacting people the most and has left people in the lower half of the population with considerable anxieties about making ends meet. At $100,000-$150,000 incomes in the upper third of the population there is saving for colleges that have costs going through the roof and cost of child care that is causing anxiety.

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IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath, says multispeed recoveries are in place in regions and across income groups, linked to the differences in vaccine rollout, and extent of economic policy support. 

All regions in the world are expected to grow faster than estimated in January 2021 by IMF. 

US - forecast raised to 6.4% from 5.1%, this follows contraction of 3.5% in 2020. Rapid vaccination drive and large economic support under president Biden accelerating growth. About $5 trillion in economic support in the US by April 2021.

Europe- forecasts raised for growth in UK and Italy.

Latin America- growth forecast raised to 4.6% from 4.1%.

Africa- growth forecast raised to 3.4% from 3.2%.

Emerging and developing economies including India as a whole- growth forecast raised to 6.7% from 6.3%.

 

 

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Alberta referendum of October 19 2026 for separation from Canada. Alberta with oil and gas, Saskatchewan and Manitoba with agricultural production provide Eastern Canadian provinces such as Ontario and Quebec with food and energy,  Sepratist sentiment in Alberta comes from a sense that Alberta is being exploited by Eastern Canada for the last 100 years. An independent Alberta would be aligned with the US, more likely, though it could be part of the US states. Canada says Sir Ivor Jennings in his book Commonwealth of Nations, if it had joined the US in 1776 would have trade patterns north to south with trade between Vermont and New Hampshire to Ontario, Birtish Columbia with Washington state, instead of the east to west trade of the last 250 years with western Canadian product shipped to the more populated east. Alberta has 12 % of the population of Canada of 40 million or about 5 million people and contributes 15% of the Canadian economy.

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In this analysis of Keir Starmer's speech at the Labour conference inLiverpool in October 2023 The Guardian looks at the scale of the task ahead. Starmer faces the task of the 1997 style decline of public services, the need to channel the Harold Wilson mission to modernize the economy in a time of change, and the Clement Atlee 1945 imperative to build a new Britain "out of the trauma of collective sacrifice." Starmer told delegates- "In 2024 it will have to be all three." Such is the task facing Britain and Starmer in 2024. Something similar is taking place in the US with Biden and Modi in India in 2024, in three of the largest democracies in the world, and two of the oldest.

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Chevron posts revenue of $247 billion in 2022 and profit of $35.5 billion. Profits are double that in 2021. High oil prices have increased profits for oil companies when households in the US and Britain are suffering the effects of inflation. President Biden has said the higher profits are "the windfall of war" when average American households are suffering the effects of higher energy prices. The Guardian has shown the increase in demand for food banks in Britain even from people working as nurses and teachers which has never happened in this way before with higher prices for energy and food following the war in Ukraine.

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Households and businesses have built up trillions of dollars in extra savings and the economic recovery looks strong says this report in the WSJ. Experts expect the economy to pass pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021. From this point the economy can recover the pre-pandemic trajectory of growth for 2022. There is a bit of caution about another wave of the coronavirus with new more contagious variants considering that about half the population still remains unvaccinated. The US has enough vaccine supplies, it is the anti-vax sentiment that could be the problem. Even with this bit of caution the economy appears resilient.

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NYT's Brad Plumer looks at the assessment of a report from REPEAT (Princeton), MIT, and Rhodium on how well the Biden Climate laws are building renewable energy- how well this is working to tackle climate change goals. The goal set by BIden was a 40% reduction over 2005 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Electric car sales are moving at a pace that is consistent with the goals but renewable energy instead of being at an average of 46 gigawatts of carbon free electricity for 2023 and 2024 is falling short as it was at 32 gigawatts carbon free electricity for the US in 2023.

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The S&P 500 index gained 5.9% the week of October 29th for its best gain since November 2022. For 2023 it has gained 14%. A jobs report showing less job growth of 150,000 slightly higher unemployment at 3.9% and slowing inflation, led the US Fed to pause raising interest rates. This has created optimism that inflation would gradually decline which is good for the economy.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the only Treasury Secretary who also served as the chairperson of the US central bank the Federal Reserve 2014-2018, and the only woman in these roles. Here she says she toured the country in 2022 a year after joining the Biden administration as head of the finance ministry. What she has seen are the early results of president Biden's  two trillion dollar bills, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Science and CHIPS Act 2021, which give manufacturing and new infrastructure building a critical role in a new revitalized America. All across this vast country aging infrastructure is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is changing the landscape. Yellen says the US economy is resilient and growing amidst a global economic slowdown and higher interest rates. The labor market is strong and household balance sheets are healthy, consumer spending robust, says Yellen. It provides the basis for American global economic leadership in the years ahead. ...

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Susie Dent on Vocabulary in decline in UK ( and the US) as screen time takes time from learning new words. “There is a huge perception that screen time is having a negative impact on vocabulary, and I think that’s because it is taking away from reading time. The digital lives of our children are taking a greater and greater role and reading certainly is in decline." Dent cites a 2023 Oxford University Press report that 40% of children had fallen behind in vocabulary development. She says there is areal danger that vocabulary development is suffering for children and that this impacts learning for children.

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Naval blockade of Iran cutting off oil exports and securing the Hormuz for navigation April 12 2026. Speaking on Hannity TV show General Keane and South Carolina Senator Graham say the goal is to get the enriched uranium out of Iran. Senator Graham says the Pope is a good man but he has no idea about the danger posed by enriched uranium in Iran and the development of a "dirty bomb" and ballistic missiles. The US Navy is able to control the seas around the Gulf and the Red Sea to check all sea traffic in the area and has all the capabilities to do this.

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The US added 517,000 jobs in January 2023. Forecasters had estimated only about 200,000. Much of the coverage focused on tech layoffs. Amazon for instance laid off 18,000 workers and it has a workforce of 1.5 million people. By comparison the US labor workforce is 168.5 million people. And there were 11 million vacant jobs by the end of December 2022, according to the US Labor Department. Some of the tech workers laid off were hired in other business. The labor market is also much larger than tech.

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Efforts to end the use of single use plastics that are a threat to health and the environment, land, rivers and oceans.  The use of plastic water bottles has worsened the crisis. Supermarkets are slow in the US to ban plastic bags showing need for prudent regulation. Talks in Busan, South Korea, in Nov 2024 to find a solution to the plastics proliferation crisis. The plastics industry including plastics makers and recycling companies say things are under control with recycling goals, yet reports show only 30% of plastics is being recycled each year in 2024, and going back to the beginning of plastics 2 decades back only about 10% has been recycled. All the rest ends up on landfills, gets incinerated causing more pollution, or ends up on our coastlines and in the land contaminating it.

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Pew Research Center analysis of Biden's 2020 victory shows which groups played the big part in Biden's win. First time voters in 2018, 6% of total voters, mostly younger voters gave Biden a 26% margin over Trump. Other parts of the electorate that shifted in 2020 are Independents and Moderates who shifted to Biden. Catholics also shifted to Biden. Substantial leads in these voting blocs made the difference for Biden. In Arizona with Latinos, and Pennsylvania with the black population Biden did better than in the overall US electorate. In 2024 these same blocs are likely to play a key part. President Biden's visit to Ireland was well planned, his appeal to Irish roots genuinely felt and the connection made. His appeal to manufacturing workers is now based on accomplished results in fighting for worker's rights from teachers to railroad workers. Biden launched his campaign in front of a union audience, saying he saw things from the perspective of Scranton, and the working people he grew up with. In 2016 third party candidates got 6% of the vote, in 2020 only 2%. Of these voters Biden gained a 25% margin over Trump. Biden split the men's vote with Trump in 2020, compared to Trump's 11 point lead in 2016. Biden also maintained the share of women's votes of 54%  in the 2020 election. In 2024 the abortion issue is a significant factor for women. ...

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Mr. Ambani's Jio company is targeting both ends of the pyramid. It is investing $25 billion on a 5G network coming in late 2023. At the lower end a new $12 mobile phone calld JioBharat by India's largest telecom provider aims to reach 250 million people who use 2G mobile phones. Mobile phone penetration in India is about 46% in 2021, up from 17% in 2016, according to World Bank. This is largely due to the efforts of Mr. Ambani who built a 4G network from scratch and has 440 million subscribers with some of the lowest data rates in the world. The new phone has a smaller screen, physical keyboard, camera and runs on 4G. 

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The surprise is the DJT Senate bill cuts to about 75% of the solar and wind subsidies in the Biden 2022 IRA Act for $843 billion in investments that were going to Republican districts. New rules in the Senate version of 3B Tax Cuts Bill require US renewable solar to disentangle supply chain from China by 2027 or face an excise import tax. All renewable subsidies will also be phased out earlier by 2027 instead of 2032 set by the Biden administration in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 with subsidies, tax credits for renewables solar and wind led to $843 billion in planned solar and wind investments. Suddenly much of this is placed in doubt. Instead of 2032 phase out the date is moved up to end of 2027 for 30% subsidies and to end of 2028. The result is confusion in the renewables industry and opposition to the excise tax for not disentangling from China supply chain by end of 2027 spreading to the US Chamber of Commerce. ...

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US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

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China's consumer prices declined by 0.3% in July. There are signs that the economy is slowing. A deflationary trend is taking shape with buyers declining to spend following layoffs at companies, higher unemployment and less growth. Expectations of falling prices could further sap demand worsening the debt situation in China. China's economy has grown in the last decade by assuming ever larger debt burden. The debt in 2022 was three times the GDP of China. Servicing this debt becomes harder when consumer demand is weak. The situation in the US is different with the central bank the US Fed increasing interest rates to lower inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3.2% in July, and expectations of a drop ion inflation with lower shelter costs in rest of 2023.

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Gone are the days when Gandhi's India was stuck for 50 years in a sort of wavering in its standing up with America. Gone are the days of John Foster Dulles and the Eisenhower administration and the Kennedy administration following British policies of not seeing India's potential. Gone are the days when Nehru's own lack of comprehension and grasp of India's potential and the potential of 1.4 billion people made him put India in a non-aligned movement that was going nowhere with the likes of Yugoslavia (that no longer exists) and Egypt ( which is struggling). This is what Jaishankar referred to as "overcoming the hesitations of history", and Rubio as "perfectly positioned." Deep introspection on both sides with the live events in West Asia of 2025 and 2026, America's willingness to confront the issues in a straightforward manner under DJT, and Modi's patience, willingness to wait and still build for the US the strong relationships that it was loosening up with the European Union to regain the initiative in the western hemisphere with the Monroe Doctrine (Merz visit to India and Modi visit to the Nordic Summit/EU Summit in Oslo), proving the maturity of the relationship. America did not need to cover its own relationships across the Atlantic while attending to the damage done by drug cartels and foreign interventions in its backyard leading to more loss of lives in drug deaths than the Korean, Vietnam and WWI combined. India had already done so and would hold the relationships together in the interests of the Modern World created by Britain, the US, and the countries of Europe through the Renaissance, the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions. In a way Asia had matured- both China and India keen to join the Modern World of science and technology, of modernization, are on the same path, and seek relationships that matter, India on the American side and China in a arrangement of cooperation with competition, at the very time the European nations led by Britain and Germany were faced with struggles from European history from 1700 of how to deal with differences they have with their large Northern neighbor Russia and its concerns about NATO. ...