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Canadian prime minister Trudeau met with DJT at Mar-a-Lago. DJT said Mexico and Canada are not doing enough to stop flow of drugs in particular fentanyl into the US, and undocumented migrants. Trudeau said "when Donald Trump makes statements like that. He plans to carry it out." For Canada many dubious and questionable policies on immigration under Trudeau can be corrected. It has the most at stake as it exports $423 billion of goods to the US and 2 million people are employed in these exports. For a long time Mexico and Canada have remained insensitive to how policies led to harm for the American people, in ways that are unprecedented in American history and since the settlement of the North American continent.

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Unheard of things are happening, but that is what this recession is doing to immigrants from Mexico to the United States. Families from poor states like Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, are sending money north to the USA to support a son or a family member, who is unemployed in the US and unable to return home. One father says he sends money just so his son can eat. And a family in rural Oaxaca sold a cow to send $1000 to a family member in the USA.

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Otis Elevator is moving a plant based in Nogales, Mexico, back to the U.S. This plant was moved to Mexico in 1998 for cost reasons. Now Otis CEO, Didier Michaud-Daniel, says producing at a new South Carolina plant will cost less than Mexico. Logistics and freight costs are 17.3% less in the U.S. than Mexico, and an additional 20% in savings come from "efficiencies" gained by having all its white collar workers associated with elevator design and production. Most companies that manufacture in China and Mexico keep their design and engineering jobs in the the U.S. It is not clear to what extent American companies have considered all the costs of separating design and engineering from manufacturing, including the opportunities for close cooperation possible in one location that are lost when everything is so spread out. At Otis toolmakers in Dallas and engineers and designers located in Indiana and Arizona traveled to the Nogales, Mexico plant. This can be especially important when as in Otis's case the new plant in Florence, South Carolina, plans the launch of a new generation of elevator designs. In this case there is an added benefit by making it easier for customers to visit the plant and look at the product. The new plant will have more automation and use fewer workers on the factory floor. The new factory will employ 360 workers including white collar workers, the same as the Nogales, Mexico, plant with a lower number of factory floor workers. ...

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Shipping and freight statistics show an increase of shipments from Mexico. Trains and truck shipments from Mexico to the U.S. increased by 8.7% by weight in the first 11 months of 2011 compared to the prior year. By comparison shipping containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach went down by 0.2% in 2011. Mexico stands to benefit from the shift in dynamics as manufacturing costs in China increase with labor constraints, higher wages, higher commercial land prices and recent Asian supply chain issues making firms wary of unanticipated problems. This is expected to benefit the U.S. with the return of some manufacturig jobs and a serious rethink of outsourcing. Because of highly automated factories and advanced technologies the manufacturing process requires fewer and more skilled operators, reducing the labor component of costs. Carlisle Companies CEO, David Roberts says he is expanding tire manufacturing plants in Tennessee. He says he can make tires as cheaply or cheaper in the U.S than in China. This has serious implications as the U.S. gets down to rebuilding and renewal of its manufacturing industry....

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The murder of 43 students in Mexico becomes a major issue affecting the credibility of the Mexican state, the PRI, and Mexico's status as a rule of law country. A renewed focus on drug gangs in Mexican life and the infiltration of all levels of municipal government and police.

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The Trump administration sends an official notice to Congress that it intends to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty with Mexico and Canada. The new U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer served as Deputy Trade Representative under president Reagan in 1983. He says the focus of the negotiation will to promote economic growth and jobs by making improvements to the treaty. The notice does not mention major modifications of the type that were hinted at by president Trump earlier. The leaders of Canada and Mexico had asked president Trump to renegotiate. Republicans in Congress and business in the U.S. favor improvements instead of the drastic changes. Mr. Lighthizer's approach is stated in his letter that said "NAFTA was negotiated 25 years ago, and while our economy and business has changed considerably in that period, NAFTA has not." New provisions will be needed said Lighthizer for intellectual property rights, state owned enterprises, labor and environmental areas, with effective enforcement.  Because of the rhetoric and language used in the election campaign, it is important to note that Lighthizer has in the past negotiated favorable terms for the U.S. steel industry to prevent dumping from overseas. His style is the opposite of the president. He has stated- "I am friendly when negotiating. I am not theatrical. The art of persuasion is knowing where the leverage is." ...

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Timeline in NYT on DJT-Jamieson USTR  Tariffs to March 13, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to go into effect April 2, 2025 on Mexico and Canada. Reciprocal tariffs are seen as based on fairness- "we charge them what they charge us."  Why is this action necessary?  Because Canada, Mexico, EU, South Korea, Japan, China gained unfair advantages due to the inaction of administrations dating back to Clinton, Bush, Obama which were never reversed. Other nations have no incentive to trade on the principle of fairness inducing the US to take action to open discussions on fair trade and on what the tariffs should be going forward from 2025. US Trade Representative Lighthizer under DJT first term was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he negotiated fair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's who he says stalled and stalled till finally agreeing to real discussions. So this is nothing new China, Canada and Mexico have taken the place of Japan. In this second term of DJT Lighthizer's Deputy Trade Representative is now the US Trade Representative. This means the discussions are in the hands of seasoned American trade officials with a keen grasp of details supported by Scott Bessent at Treasury and Luttnick at Commerce Department. What it is NOT is an effort to coerce other nations by the US. Like Japan in the 1980's with Reagan and Lighthizer as USTR, in 2025 China, Canada, Mexico, South Korea Taiwan and other nations would like to slow this return to fair trade by stalling and stalling, and presenting a different picture of the facts. But will that work? As it did not with Japan in the 1980's when Lighthizer got them to sit down to have real discussions on fair trade. ...

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After the Biden executive order closing the Mexico Border following 2500 illegal border crossings a day there remains the challenge of increased funding for DHS Border Control for Asylum processing officers and immigration judges, so that the intent of the executive order can be implemented effectively. Making the claim of asylum requires being in the country, a process that provides an incentive to cross the border from Mexico. Bipartisan legislation is required as the duty of Congress to address these immigration problems so that the Border issue does not become one on which all other problems facing the US can be put on hold and not tackled making the US fall behind in development, infrastructure, climate change action, education, supply chain, and health care, resulting in reducing the standard of living in the US.

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The sinking of two oil tankers in the waters off Mexico led to Mexico joining the war against Japan in 1942. Mexican president Avila Camacho sent the 201st Fighter Squadron as part of the Mexican Expeditionary Force to train in the U.S. By 1945 this force was taking part in the war in the Philippines. Mexico is the only nation from Latin America after Brazil that fought on the Allied side in the war. Brazil sent forces to Italy. 

India made an amazing contribution of 2.5 million soldiers in the war effort as part of the British effort in the second world war.The largest contribution in the war effort came from Indian troops against Japan in the northeastern part of India with Indian Air Force pilots based in Imphal, Manipur. The Indian Army mostly from Indians with British officers played a key role in repelling a 80,000 large Japanese Army in the northeast and Assam. The Indian Army was also active throughout North Africa and in Italy. 

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In a bold decision that shows courage and foresight president Biden lifts IP protection for Covid 19 vaccine patents of American companies such as Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and Novavax. This has huge implications for vaccination supplies for countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, that are hard hit by the pandemic as well as the rest of the world. It will open up manufacturing additional vaccine supplies in countries as diverse as France and India, that can ramp up quickly because of already established pharmaceutical bases.

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Mexico's domestic market is growing and compacts are about half of Mexico's 1.13 vehicle market. The San Luis Potosi plant will be able to make 160,000 compact cars a year, an investment of $650 million. Some of this could go to Mexico's own need for compacts in the domestic market. Also this could supply the U.S. market where GM needs compacts to compete with Japanese and Korean models. One of the reasons Mexico is able to compete with the Southern United States is is its high quality work force at a fraction of the cost. See the link to Mexico's turning out a large number of engineering graduates. When companies look at where to put a new plant, Mexico is starting to compete a lot more with Detroit, said Gabriel Renero, a consultant at Deloitte in Mexico City. They are finding a very attractive work force in this country. In the last year, American automakers have all introduced a variety of new models from their Mexican assembly plants. Being able to produce any kind of vehicle looks good in the global market, says Renero....

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Failing schools with poor teachers, and no examination system to keep out teachers who lack training and education, are a major problem for Mexico. It was part of the education reforms passed in Congress in 2013. A week before elections the militant teachers union CNTE has mounted protests to prevent this from taking place. The Mexican government of president Nieto temporarily suspended examinations as a result of the protests. This article in the Economist magazine says this affects the credibility of the government's committment to the reforms Mexico needs to become competitive in the global economy, and could affect how investors see the reforms being implemented for the oil industry. It also questions the autonomy of independent bodies setup to implement the reforms, leading to a statement by the National Institute for Education Evaluation(INEE), clearly setup by Congress to implement this reform, that this violates the constitution. Can this happen to the telecom and energy regulators, whose authority could be undermined in other ways, say critics....

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Mexico's domestic car market is weak, most of the cars are manufactured for export. From 2000 to 2008 the domestic car market in Brazil grew by 80% to 2.67 million vehicles, and in Argentina by 79% to 610,713 vehicles. Sales went up in 2008 by 14% in Brazil and by 8% in Argentina. Whereas in Mexico domestic sales fell 6.8% during 2008 to 1.03 million vehicles. Sales for 2009 in the domestic market are expected to fall by 20%. And auto exports from Mexico fell dramatically in Jan-Feb 2009 dropping by 52% to 89,242 units over same period last year. Auto exports generate a $15 billion surplus for Mexico so there is concern about this sharp drop. Auto exports rose 3% in 2008 to 1.7 million units, and 79% of 2008 domestic production of 2.1 million units went to exports. One in 74 people were sold a car in Brazil in 2008, and 1 in 66 in Argentina, whereas in Mexico it is one in 107 people. And Mexico's minimum wage of 55 pesos is $3.85 per day, the lowest of the 3 countries. The low paying jobs and poor income distribution in Mexico is a reason for this. Under Nafta Mexico also allows the import of cars from the USA which are over 10 years old. Mexico imported 909,000 vehicles in 2009. To keep the Mexican auto industry from sinking the government is considering assistance to the domestic manufacturers, dealers, and car loan companies, a total of 9.5 billion pesos, as well as sales incentives for buyers. But domestic sales are relatively smaller and the market weak to make up for the huge loss in exports judging by the Jan-Feb 2009 numbers off 52%. A lot is at risk with the domestic car industry generating 24% of manufacturing exports, 16% of manufacturing, and with more than a million workers directly or indirectly associated with the industry. Already GM and VW have announced layoffs. ...

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Mexico's Felipe Calderon cites the achievements during his 6 years in office: the efforts to establish a rule of law state, reduce the influence of drug trafficking gangs, improve higher technical education with 113,000 engineers now graduating each year, generating jobs and economic growth, and reducing the flow of people moving across the border with the U.S. as conditions improve in Mexico.

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The lack of vaccine supplies is affecting countries such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, Brazil and Mexico as cases rise. Porto Alegre and Manila are being hit particularly hard.

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Ten walking trips in places such as the Camino Francais on the way to Santiago de Compostela, the Welsh countryside, the Sangre de Cristo mountains in New Mexico, coast to coast in northern England, in the Dolomite Alps of northern Italy, are shown here by Neil King in the WSJ.

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Biden balances the order closing the US Border with Mexico with action to protect 500,000 undocumented spouses of American citizens from deportation and giving them a pathway to citizenship. Biden says it protects American values to keep families together. This will bolster the support for Biden among Latinos in 2024.

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There is little chance that Mexico is going to pay for a wall, or that it is possible to prevent remittances by Mexicans working in the U.S., says O'Grady in the WSJ. President Obama says about preventing each and every Western Union remittances transaction "good luck with that."