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Britain's National Health Service has setup a medical review of gender treatment of young people. It's conclusion after 4 years of research- "The reality is that we have no good evidence on the long-term outcomes of interventions to manage gender-related distress.” This NHS review found no clear proof that  gender dysphoria in children or teenagers was resolved or alleviated by what is called gender-affirming care, where a child's declared “gender identity” is affirmed and supported with social transition, puberty blockers and/or cross-sex hormones. After Cass the British government issued an emergency ban on puberty blockers for children under age 18. A similar approach is being taken in the Scandinavian countries, and in Netherlands, France, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, the move is away from medical treatment of gender issues. American medicine, Cass says is “out of date,” and has put politics ahead of science.Not one American medical association or governmental official has reached out to discuss Britian's Cass report. Says Cass- “I think that’s where you’re misleading the public. You need to be honest about the strength of the evidence and say what you’re going to do to improve it.”   ...

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A rice importer from Britain talks about the difficulties in importing rice. Contracts that lasted 12 months are now for 2 months and prices are up by about 15% for rice imports. Vietnamese rice is replacing Italian long grain varieties, yet there is only a limited supply of Vietnamese rice to meet world needs.

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The Economist magazine says parliament in Britain should act to pass a motion of no- confidence for the Boris Johnson government. It says Mr.Johnson's action stifling parliamentary democracy by suspending parliament in the weeks before the Brexit date of October 31st is reason for the opposition and Tory rebels to set aside their differences. Without this Mr. Johnson could take Britain out of the European Union without any deal. This would damage the economy, leaving Britons poorer, and create unrest in Northern Ireland.

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This editorial in The Guardian points out that only a tiny fraction of the British people, merely 160,000 members of the Tory Conservative party are for the last 2 months in July and August 2022 determining what kind of government Britain should have at a time of cost of living crisis. Most of these 160,000 are male, upper class, older and propertied. No government action is taking place to protect people from cost increases. In France the energy price increase is limited to 4% by the government, Spain is doing the same to limit cost increases. And in Britain Ofgem regulator has allowed the price cap for energy to triple relative to a year ago and no minister there available to answer the public's questions, kind of surreal.

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The Economist cites estimates from the Bank of England showing Britain's national output peaking at 1.5 trillion pounds in 2007 and not likely to return to that level till 2015. It points to fears of a lost decade. Meanwhile debt is rising from 600 billion pounds in 2008 to 1.1 trillion in 2012, making reducing the debt to GDP ratio by 2017 even more difficult. Lower growth affects tax revenues even as social benefit costs increase. Part of the problem is that from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012 public sector net investment declined from 48.5 billion pounds to 28 billion pounds. The Economist suggests Chancellor Osborne take up an additional investment in infrastructure of 28 billion pounds, even borrowing 14 billion pounds in the bond markets if needed, as a prudent step to revive growth. Small improvements in rail, roads and bridges could make up for a lack of large projects. Other suggestions include expanding the "funding for lending" scheme with banks to get capital to small business, finding more savings in the National Health Service, and changing the way Britain taxes development land that remains undeveloped. Britain, now joins, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, in the failure of austerity measures alone creating a return to economic growth and lower deficits. In 2013 improving competitiveness and boosting economic growth become critical following years of austerity measures....

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Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, says growth is expected to be "sluggish" with higher inflation. Inflation increased to 2.7% in October from 2.2% in Sept. 2012, with rising costs of university fees. The growth of 1% in the third quarter he described as a one time situation because of the Olympics in Britain. The strength of the pound relative to the euro and the GDP decline in the eurozone also hurt Britain's exports. Economsts at IHS Insight expect the Bank of England to keep the benchmark interest rate at current level of 0.5% for at least 2 more years and increase asset purchases by 50-79 billion pounds in Jan-March 2013. Some economists see the need for other approaches because of tight bank lending. King says the central bank committee retains faith in asset purchases as a policy instrument.

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New evidence from Britain that vaccination is reducing cases, deaths and transmission. Israeli experts also confirm that vaccination works to reduce deaths and cases of coronavirus based on Israel's vaccination drive, a pioneering effort in vaccination.

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Russian proposals for settlement in Ukraine including giving up the whole eastern Donbass region, recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and limiting its army and long range weapons. These are the same conditions set in 2022. There is a new situation developing in Europe as Germany, France, Britain and most of Eastern Europe looks to be firm in support of Ukraine. Germany is stepping up its military preparedness under chancellor Merz of the CDU led coalition government. The US under DJT is working under two pathways seeking engagement with Russia and at the same time seeking a way to settle the Ukraine conflict. With German, British and EU support it appears unlikely that Ukraine would agree to all the Russian terms as Russia is using some gains on the war front to gain a clear win in 2025. By 2026 with European support Ukraine may look for a settlement that offers better terms than currently offered by Russia. For the US DJT faces pressures from within the Republican party that would oppose giving Russia a win after its role as the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, and after the bombing destruction of Ukraine's cities.   ...

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The UK is drasticall falling behind in renewable energy and on its meeting its commitment to the Paris Accords after failure to act on the part of Tory prime minister Sunak. It will have to ramp up action under Labour. The Climate Change Committee annual report to parliament shows Sunak approved projects would only meet one third of the emissions cuts Britain promised to cut emissions by 68% by 2030. Labour has approved three giant solar farms. This will not be enough as a five fold increase in installations is needed for solar.

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Nadhim Zahawi is Conservative party chair appointed by Mr. Sunak. He was finance minister. This report in The Guardian looks at the penalty imposed and tax settlement with Zahawi that was made by His Majesty's Revenue and Customs, Britain's tax agency, as part of the settlement practices with wealthy individuals.

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With a general election approaching in Britain the question about a progressive alliance is brought up in the Guardian. A big block is the Labour party with its obsession for vote share, and not seeking alliances of any kind. The Liberal Democrats are creating their own barriers with hostility towards Labour party. This report cites Best for Britain data and says 457 seats are immune to alliances. Of 150 marginals 111 seats the numbers show if SNP, Lib Democrats, Greens swung behind Labour party  it would make a big difference. as in 30 seats even a 5% swing from Labour to the Lib Democrats would give the seat to the Conservatives. The other approach is to have informal alliances at the grassroots level so that progressive candidates can do well.

 

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The treaty of handover by Britain of Hong Kong under one country, two systems was flawed in the way it was negotiated. French commentators looking at the problem say the city is caught between its past in the British Empire and the new monolithic state that China represents. Under the British French visitors looked at the city and wondered how there was freedom but no democracy, people were just selfishly just interested in making money. Chris Patten, Britain's administrator of the territory tried but failed to get democratic process, During the negotiations in 1984 for handover the chief British negotiator, Percy Cradock, a former ambassador to China, tells the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that - In Hong Kong where there is such a disparity in strength between the two sides, you go for the best you can get, I take the simple view that half a loaf is better than no bread." Britain had very little leverage to secure a separate future for Hong Kong because it was small compared to much larger China resulting unequal negotiations. The same is true today as the best Britain could do is to get out a joint declaration with Australia and Canada saying that it did not approve the new security law, that it violated the treaty signed by Britain and China. The French view expressed by the editor of La Croix is that hasty poorly planned British exits- as happened in British India -have led to crises and conflicts for postcolonial generations, a legacy of British colonial rule. India and Pakistan still sorting out Kashmir, and India and China still fighting about the McMahon Line border area. The situation is very different for the U.S. which now has to respond in some way, and this comes as trade tensions and coronavirus tensions about its origins in China and the failure of Beijing to allow quick entry for an American team into Wuhan. This being for 7 weeks between Jan 6 request and February 16 permission. America sees this as losing 7 precious weeks to make up its own determination of the dangers when every week health experts say means saving or losing tens of thousands of lives. With loss of 100,000 lives the Trump administration has a sense of being misled. This French report in FR24 points out that the lack of a strong response from the U.S. would be something similar to letting the Berlin Wall happen without a response. Both sides in a situation where the territory of Hong Kong remained mostly about money and with a disproportionate influence of business interests similar to its founding under the unequal treaties of the 1850's. ...

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A dozen Conservative lawmakers including Nicky Morgan support a new customs union with the European Union. The bipartisan motion had the support  of the majority in Britain's parliament. Conservative lawmaker Nicky Morgan stated in parliament that "this country is being asked to experiment at other people's pleasure with a free trade policy where we do not know what the costs will be for constituents and businesses in this country." This reflects changing sentiment in Britain about the costs of Brexit supported by a part of the Conservative Party that includes Liam Fox and Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary.  There is a sense that Britain's economy will be hurt by Brexit and Britain leaving the European Union without any way to lessen the consequences of the break in trading relations.

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Mark Landler of the NYT describes the situation in Britain as people struggle to make ends meet during a cost of living crisis, and the weakness in the economy during the week of the coronation. 

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That India is meeting and exceeding goals set under the paris Climate Change agreement is a great achievement of the last 6 years says this Hindustan Times editorial. India's achievements in solar and other forms of renewable energy have been achieved with a bold vision and strong effort of its own showing that climate change agreements are not the only way to tackle climate change. As one of the major users of energy from coal and fossil fuels India's bold action makes a huge difference for the world. As China, EU, Britain and Japan commit to a net zero carbon target India is now one of many countries in the competition to reduce fossil fuels. This also means HT says that India must now be prepared for technological competition as well as shift to renewable energy sources. The return of the U.S. to the climate accords now positions both countries to benefit from each others advances in renewable energy. Partnership with Britain and Japan also offers new possibilities for technology access and sharing so that more gains can be made to benefit India's and the global environment for clean skies, clean air and clean waters. ...

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The U.S. makes its first interest rate cut since 2008. The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on July 30 2019. For seven years after the financial crisis of 2009 the U.S. central bank cut rates to generate business investment confidence and initially to prevent a deep crash in stock markets. In making this cut the U.S. is now a follower of the European central bank which is cutting rates to stimulate the economy. The U.S. does not want to see too much divergence with European interest rates which are showing negative yields and the U.S. at about 2.25% putting the U.S. with a disadvantage in trade from a stronger currency that results from higher rates. That crisis was a result of poor lending by banks in an irrational search for profits that never materialized. It ended up hurting the savings of ordinary Americans who earned close to zero on savings accounts. A similar pattern was seen in Britain and the European Union, resulting in a loss of confidence of working class voters in the established political parties and the emergence of Trump in the U.S., UKIP in Britain, AfD in Germany and the National Front in France.  ...

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The World Vaccine Summit raises about $7 billion to immunize about 300 million children for polio, diphtheria and measles, over 5 years. Prime minister Boris Johnson who opened the summit called it "the greatest shared endeavour of our times." Bill Gates donated $1.6 billion and Britain pledged 1.65 billion pounds over 5 years, making Britain the largest donor. Mr. Trump also addressed the summit in virtual manner- "we will work hard, we will work strong... good luck, let's get the answer." Mr. Johnson called for renewing "the collective resolve."  Specifically he stated: " Just as we have great military alliances like NATO.... where countries collaborate on building their collective military defence, so we now need that sam spirit of collaboration and collective defense agains the common enemy of disease." Referring to failure of early warning systems for coronavirus with crucial weeks between Jan 6 to Feb 16 lost for the West with lack of international cooperation- "It will require a new international effort to cooperate on the surveillance and sharing of information- data is king- that can underpin a global alert system, so we can rapidly identify any future outbreak. And that will mean a rapid scale-up of our global capacity to respond."  ...

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Spanish coach Luis Enrique says the Argentine team of Lionel Scaloni with Messi in top form is way above the rest including European teams and Brazil. Argentina beat Italy recently and European teams such as Britain, Germany and Spain are not doing well. Players are playing too many games and lack rest periods with only 4-5 days to prepare.

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Reaganomics, trickle down economics, it is clear don't work. James Mackintosh says in WSJ, the latest version of Reaganomics, in the form of the LIz Truss budget in September 2022 with cuts in corporate taxes, no relief for vulnerable populations in the cost of living crisis as in all other major European countries and in the US, is already getting a bad reception in financial markets with the tumbling of the British pound.Times have changed there is nothing to be gained in its approach as there are no trade unions strangling growth as in Thatcher's time that need to be restrained, and not that much red tape to increase business flexibility. Most of the privatization has already been done and some of the state run companies are operating much better today than privatized companies handling water and other services.   Instead the problem is one of much needed investment in infrastructure and public services, and social protections after the pandemic. Businesses are not being crippled by high corporate taxes. Instead the opposite is the case, with windfall profits, so that the opposite approach taken by president Biden to use the higher tax on profits of Tech, oil and other companies to finance social protections and a huge climate energy initiative made more sense, leading to the passage of the $369 climate bill  and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.  The WSJ makes these points- Britain has a higher current account deficit and higher debt at over 100% of GDP compared to the period of Thatcher in the 1980's when debt was only 40% of GDP. Most important is what the WSJ says about what has happened since the 2009 financial crisis and the austerity policies pursued after that crisis that were worsened by the pandemic so that public services in Britain are actually crumbling. Politically this lacks popular support and little backing at a time of a recession in the British economy, because such policies require public support to go through a tough period . And taking this trickle down economics today when Britain faces a cost of living crisis may be an unwise act of taking an approach that is no longer relevant or shown to be working at the worst possible time, says the WSJ. ...

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More revelations such as Pandora papers may not do much because the inertia is institiutionalized and the political system is available for hire, says Prof. Prem Sikka of the University of Sheffield, UK. He says armies of accountants, lawyers and financial experts support this system, the regulatory system in the UK is ineffective, and too many MP's are on the payroll of corporations, says Prof. Sikka in The Guardian. It is the sheer size of the problem that is staggering and could be an indication of how it reduces upward mobility in society, leads to financial crises, and defunds infrastructure, defunds healthcare and housing in US, Europe, Britain and India. The size of illegal money and tax evasion money in the world today is according to this article in The Guardian simply astonishing- $3.6 trillion. 

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Britain's Office of National Statistics said that GDP declined by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012 from the prior quarter. GDP declined by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011. This means Britain is officially in a recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The ONS said GDP was 4.3% below its precrisis peak in the first quarter of 2008. The UK registered growth of a mere 0.4% since the coalition government of David Cameron took over in May 2010. This presents problems for prime minister Cameron in tackling the UK deficit. It also shows how difficult it will be for EU countries to address their deficits without economic growth. This has come into increasing focus with recent events in the Netherlands with the collapse of the government and upcoming elections on the issue of austerity cuts, and in France with the presidential elections and the swing to parties questioning austerity measures without economic growth.

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Russian view at SCO Summit-"A fair balance in the security sphere" meaning a fair settlement on the expansion of NATO and EU that may threaten Russia, something Northern Europeans have not settled.  Le Monde covers this side of the Summit at Tianjin, a coastal city near Beijing in northeastern China. Over long periods of European history since 1600 Northern Europe including UK, Sweden, Denmark, France, Poland and Germany have contended with Russia and seen purely from this perspective Russia sees itself as a Northern European power and seeks to protect it's interests. Britain, Sweden and France have for the most part been on the opposite side since 1600. US under a Republican administration, and this is not just DJT, sees the larger interests beyond Europe of Asia and the American continent in addition to Europe, and seeks a diplomatic way out of the war in Europe.

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As the first day of talks happens in Brussels between Barnier of the EU and Davis of Britain, EU officials say Britain must meet spending pledges it made of 60 billion euros. Britain says there are different legal views on what is owed. Experts see little chance the two sides can reach an agreement by the deadline of March 2019. With the fragile coalition government in Britain talks appear to be very precarious with no clear view what Brexit means.

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Though the numbers are relatively small about 450 migrants crossing in small boats to Britain, the strong response shows the political sensitivity to border crossing in Britain. Britain called on the Royal Navy to patrol the waters in the English Channel. This comes at a time when the issue of Brexit is dividing Britons. The Brexit referendum Leave vote benefitted from pictures of the migrant crossings into Europe from the Mediterranean. Placed on buses these posters were very effective in promoting the Leave campaign, even though at the time  the migration shown taking place was not into Britain but on the borders of Turkey, Greece, Hungary and Germany. 

 

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This graphic report in NYT shows how the B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant spread in Europe and how dangerous it can be. It was first seen in Britain and is more contagious increasing the risk in the third and fourth wave of coronavirus in 2021.