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Perceived average savings needed for retirement in the US shown in surveys are 20% higher in 2022 over 2021. Americans believed about average $1.25 million would be needed for retirement. This varies by state and the cost of living by state, and whether they would be supporting older parents, grownup children.

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Report that shows 24000 drones in Jan-July 2025 and 728 on July 10, as Russian factories turn out more drones in a day by July 2025 than it turned out in a month in the earlier period of the war. Drones now commonplace on Ukrainian skies. 

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The American people impatient for change in 2024 and 2025.

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A Brookings Institution study finds patents produced in a few cities in the U.S. In addition to Silicon Valley, the area around Santa Clara and San Jose, the study finds Rochester, Minnesota, Corvallis, Oregon, Burlington, Vermont, and Boulder, Colorado, as cities where there is a high degree of patent activity. The IBM research centre in Corvallis, Oregon, is one reason for Oregon being on the list. The greatest importance is having a research university nearby. Government funding of research universities helps fund new research. The study finds strong correlation between patents and innovation.

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Both candidates Mr. Trump and Mr Biden put forward their positions on immigration, the coronavirus response, the economy, and racial justice, in the final debate of 2020. This was a calmer debate with policy details and the candidates delivered their points without the sharp attacks of the earlier debates. At some points in the debate the discussion turned to Mr. Biden and dealings of son Hunter Biden with a Ukrainian company. Mr. Biden raised the issue of Mr. Trump's tax returns not being disclosed. The Affordable Care Act and coverage for Americans lacking health care, immigration and the wall with Mexico, and the oil industry were other issues in the debate.

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US unemployment at 4.6% in November 2025.

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A unit of Russian JSC Russian Railways signs a contract with China Railway Group for the design of the 770 kilometer high speed rail connection between Moscow and Kazan, in June 2015. The cost is $383 million. The actual construction link will cost $19.5 billion. Russian Railways President Vladimir Yakunin says the construction contract will go to the bidders who can provide the best financing. Chinese banks have signed agreements in 2015 to provide $25 billion in financing for Russian companies. China is keen on using its high speed rail technology to expand in other countries and this contract is being pursued vigorously by Chinese companies.

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China sees the situation in Hong Kong spiralling out of control after two months of protests and leading to a loss of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong. The Chinese official in charge of Hong Kong Affairs in the State Council, Zhang Xiaoming, met with the Hong Kong government representatives in Shenzen and made it clear offering a dire assessment and the most severe since China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 from Britain. Zhang stated- "If the situation worsens further, and there is turmoil that the Hong Kong government is unable to control, the central government absolutely will not just watch without doing anything." He also stated that the central government had enough strength to end the unrest, that the Party center and military force if necessary is behind the Hong Kong government. Wang Zhmin, China's top official in Hong Kong gives a better view of how this is seen in the Party in Beijing. He even called it a "life and death war" comparing it to the "color revolutions" the democratic movements that unseated governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia. China sees this differently than western countries. With its long struggle against colonial rule in the territory controlled by Western powers along China's coastal region, China's ruling party leaders have a very different perception of the situation than is shown in most western media, particularly during the two decades of China's reconciliation with Japan and the U.S. in its effort to catch up. In the rest of the world the perception is very different. The use of a military garrison or riot police from other parts of China would affect China's image carefully built up over two decades of a peaceful developing country working hard to catch up in living standards and technology. As the economy slows to 5-6% the damage would be to business confidence and investment, and to Hong Kong's status as a world financial center. This could also affect China's relations with the U.S., European Union and Britain. with criticism on action by China. Unlike negotiations with Japan by Mr. Lighthizer for president Reagan, when Japan enjoyed a trade surplus such as that of China today (where there were no such issues with Japan as the U.S. had offered security guarantees to Japan), negotiations with China on trade could be affected by issues such as status of Hong Kong. This could lead to a worsening of trade relations, indefinite duration of tariffs and lack of any settlement on trade, further slowing the Chinese economy and hardening positions. ...

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The deep deterioration in U.S. China relations as the U.S. sees itself in a disadvantage in trade with China and the Trump administration imposes tariffs, calls for changing existing supply chains and trade to safeguard U.S. interests. The lack of transparency from China about the coronavirus and the underreporting that led to the U.S. and Europe not taking the threat seriously enough or taking defensive steps is also seen as a part of the deeper problem as the U.S. and Europe bear the brunt of the coronavirus in terms of deaths and cases.  This presents a deeper problem than the trade issue by itself as the U.S. had a trade issue with Japan which was later resolved. The way the Trump administration sees itself as the only protector of U.S. interests in trade, security and international cooperation creates a new level of tensions. Other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and countries in South East Asia are seen as having similar concerns as supply chains are being remade to reflect the new trading conditions and economic structures. ...

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The protests happened as Immigration agents moved to enforce the law in a town Paramount just south of Los Angeles. Protesters blocked streets and defaced property. In response under Title 10 authority of the Insurrection Act president DJT called in 2000 of the California National Guard. 

Los Angeles has the largest Mexican American population in the US followed by counties in Texas Dallas and Houston areas and Cook County, Illinois. There were about 21 million people of Mexican descent in the US in 2000 which has almost doubled to about 37 million in 2023. Of this about 16 million live in California and 11 million live in Texas. Because of this concentration in Los Angeles immigration enforcement is faced with new challenges in the LA area. President Trump won a mandate in 2024 to take strong immigration enforcement of the nation's laws.

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A moment of reflection by Joe Biden at the candlelit Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool in memory of the 400,000 Americans who died in the pandemic of 2020-2021. Mr. Biden plans to vaccinate 100 million Americans in the first 100 days.

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Simple numerical skills, finding information on a website might be difficult for a good third of the American population. Peggy Carr, a Commissioner at the Education Department says- "There’s a dwindling middle in the United States in terms of skills. Over time we’ve seen more adults clustered at the bottom.”  US is lagging behind other countries and is also having a shocking level of lack of basic skills for a significant part of the population. The failure of the Education Department and different administration's programs in the last 3 decades suggests need for companies and individuals to come up with their own efforts- including use of Lyrarc.com for reading comprehension and numerical skills. The number of test takers whose skills were at about the level of a primary school student in math went up to 34% in 2024 up from 29% in 2017. Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies Test was given in 31 economic regions, to 161,000 people of which 2600 were in the US. It was given in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2023. US ranked 14th in literacy, 15th in adaptive problem solving, and 24th in numerical skills. Countries doing best ranked are Finland, Japan Norway, Sweden and Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium and Denmark. Northern Europe does best and Japan.   ...

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Denning points out the shift in Mexico to becoming a net oil importer from the U.S. by August 2013, that put new urgency to the passage of the oil law in Mexico for attracting foreign investment. Mexico's exports of crude oil were about 0.9 million barrels a day in August 2013. U.S. refinery products imported by Mexico including gasoline on an oil equivalent basis were 0.8 million barrels a day. Mexico became a net importer of energy in March 2013. Another negative factor in the energy trade between Mexico and the U.S. is increasing U.S. oil production and refineries in the coast of the Gulf of Mexico being full. As this U.S. production increases Mexico would have to offer competitive discounts in the future. Pemex drillled in all 25 deepwater wells in the last decade, according to Sanford Bernstein. The U.S. in the same period drilled 1500 ultra-deep water wells alone, showing the urgent need for foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry.

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The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in March from February 2015, increasing by 43.1%, after the ending of a labor dispute at West coast ports. The deficit widened to $51.37 billion. This is more than expected from a strong dollar. This could make 1st quarter GDP figures show a contraction for the U.S. economy. Products imported from China were up 32%, compared with March 2014. Exports were up only 0.9%. Experts estimate GDP contraction of 0.4%- 0.5% for the 1st quarter 2015. In 2014 a similiar situation happened but growth was up for the rest of the year and experts see this happening again in 2015.

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It calls for balancing it, taking into account tradeoffs and people's lives in 2025 after the pandemic, cost of living, health and housing vs net zero and speed of net zero targets. Opinion in UK on Net Zero cutting emissions changed over 4 years to split 50-50 on other spending priorities social care immigration NHS, in a focus group of The Times of London. In 2025 40% want to spend less on cutting carbon emissions net zero, large numbers favor more for NHS, then social care, policing and education in equal importance, followed by social housing. 

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A surge in rural vote with anxieties about illegal immigration surges and little done by the Biden administration in the first two years when the surge from Venezuela became evident. The pandemic, vaccine was followed by two wars in the thrid and fourth year, yet the immigration issue was allowed to grow without forceful action to close the border and pass legislation early in the first 2 years, with an objective assessment of the situation as has happened in first Socialists in Denmark, northern Europe, and then Britain as the Labour party shifted to shut down illegal immigration in its policies by 2022. The unease in rural areas was accompanied by unease among younger people 18-34 years over cost of living, and the unease among Latinos in general and Black people  without a college degree.  Taking an approach to the wars that would remove them as distractions by looking for a settlement in Ukraine through negotiations, and prioritizing strong action on the border, price surges would have helped tackle pressing issues that caused so much unease.  ...

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A poll showing 70% of boys and girls 16-17 years of age are missing school from mental health problems. After covid girls are exposed to an explosion of online pornography, and had more exposure to screen time and social media than would be useful for young people. The problem is acute for girls where one third say they "suffer from anxiety."

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See these pictures of the Yangtze River and the Poyang Lake in BBC to understand how the decades of hyper growth in China with use of coal and fossil fuels unprecedented in history were not good for China and the world. The Yangtze river has never recorded less rainfall than this year since records began in 1961. That hyper growth is being followed by slight or flat growth both situations China and the world could have avoided if a steady growth pattern was put in its place. Common sense and wisdom would have done better than economists and business  in the US and local governments in China that dictated a self-interested pattern of hyper growth that led to ravaging communities in the US and the EU by shipping all manufacturing to China, then starting to reverse this process as the same ravaged communities in the US and EU responded in elections in the US and EU. None of the participants in this now take responsibility for their role in the changing climate and natural disasters one sees in 2022. China now faces the task of rebuilding its entire fossil fuel driven industry along renewable energy lines, when it is at the end of a property driven, land sale driven boom, with local governments finances precarious.   ...

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Chief of TechMet a company in mineral resource development says that it will take years to dislodge China's dominance in rare metals mining and development for metals critical to technologies in car batteries, wind turbines, cellphones. This includes nickel and cobalt for car batteries.Last week president Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and authorizing use of the Defense Production Act to speed development of mines. The U.S. imports 80% of its rare earth elements from China, with further supply coming indirectly from the country. For 14 of 35 critical types of minerals the U.S. has no domestic production. Gallium for light emitting diodes in cell phones is one of these metals. Half of Barite a metal used in hydraulic fracturing for shale oil is imported from China. To get some idea of the neglect in U.S.policy in these area under three administrations, the U.S. in the 1980's was the largest producer of rare earth metals and the technology to process them. Today there is only one mine the Mountain Pass mine in California, and no processing plants. It takes about 10 years to develop a mine. Just as in health care products essential to tackle the virus the U.S has found its manufacturing and technology base left in woeful shape after manufacturing and mining were neglected in a failed policy. Under the guise of globalization corporations transferred essential manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to China, without understanding the importance these products played in the life of countries, and governments neglected to help local manufacturers and mining companies. Governments play a critical role as China has done by providing loans and grants to develop the national industrial base. Tariffs and quotas are also used to promote local development of the manufacturing base and mining base. Another factor is that investors are more able to invest in these companies when the government take some of the risk with its help and active support. With the Trump executive order comes a new awareness in Canada, Australia, and European Union which are now taking active steps to nurture and develop the local resources. ...

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WSJ look at Lloyd's of London culture that is unique to Britain and the insurance market in 2025.

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...