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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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AIG and GE Capital are designated "systemically important" financial institutions by the U.S. Treasury in 2013.

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Scott Shane of the NYT provides this exceptional account of how the ideology of Wahhabism on which the Saudi monarchy is based has influenced the evolution of Islam, but not in the way other religions have evolved into more moderate and open religions. Christianity evolved from the period of religious conflict, and evolved to the point that the basis of progress was based on education and technology in most of northern and southern Europe. Where the evolution did not take place because of more intolerant behaviours such as in Spain with the Spanish Inquisition and ideas from the medieval period, this development based on education and technology lagged severely behind.  Wahhabism developed as a result of a sect started by a religious cleric Wahhab in a poor desert region around Mecca and Medina, now the Saudi Kingdom, who sought the help of a tribal chief Ibn Saud. They used the religious-political alliance to gain tribal dominance in the region. Wahhabism sought to change Islam by banning worship and religious rites at tombs common in that period. It also as Brookings scholar William McCants cited here says, drew "sharp lines" and intolerance between believers and non-believers- all non-believers including other sects of Islam, Shiites, Christians. The movement spread throughout the region, but was crushed by the Ottoman Empire based in Istanbul, Turkey, by the 1850's, only to be revived in the 1920's following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A Norwegian expert Heggenhammer cited here says clearly Islam did not benefit from the evolution that other religions had, and Wahhabism has slowed this evolution into and open, tolerant religion because of its "sharp lines" and intolerance of other faiths and ideas with the Wahhabism from a medieval perod. In India the British rule brought enlightenment thinkers (John Stuart Mill for example was a clerk for the British East India company). But no such change happened under Ottoman rule to inspire leaders like Gandhi and Nehru to setup a new constitution that made changes from medieval Hindu beliefs such as caste and religious practices based on superstition.  The development of an oil rich state in Saudi Arabia with the discovery of oil, and the dependence from 1950-2010 of the global economy, has led say experts to the export of the Wahhabist kind of Islam to other countries in Middle East and South Asia. This they say made the evolution to democracy and peaceful coexistence difficult or impossible in the region. ...

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Simply put the party that makes the best case for the economy and for a better future consistently and constantly will prevail as at the end of the day white, black, rural and urban voters will be listening carefully. The cost of living, immigration, the economy, are major issues in 2024. Nate Cohn of the NYT looks at the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms and polling for 2024. He says Republicans are doing better in states they did well in the midterms in 2022. Nationally they are doing as well as in the midterms making gains in noncompetitive blue states such as New York and California where there is less impact of Roe vs Wade abortion rights and voters can show discontent with Democrats for the way they have governed. Trump can also gain with black and Hispanic voters but more in California and New York and Texas noncompetitive states.  Harris does well in Florida, and Texas, and in some red states for the same reason as voters look for alternatives from being tied down to the Republican party or the Trump Republicans.  In the key Electoral College states in midwest Harris is holding up well in polling- in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In these states Black and Hispanics are not in the same population numbers as in other states. ...

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A detailed breakdown of the the waste, fraud and improper payments in federal spending is shown in this WSJ report. . Of $4.1 trillion, a big chunk of the $6.7 trillion the US had in federal spending in 2024 according to CBO, 3.7% is self identified by agencies as improper payments or $149 billion. 90% of improper payments are overpayments. It reached a high of 7.1% of federal spending in 2021 during the pandemic when loose controls led to more improper payments. Only $22 billion was recovered for 2024. Outside agency control including state and local control where the federal and states are running programs is the single most difficulty in getting improper payments back. Top government programs with improper payments are: Health and Human Services Medicare $31.7 billion Medicaid   $31.1 billion Medicare Advantage $19.1 billion Medicare Prescription Benefit $3.6 billion Treasury - Earned Income Credit $15.9 billion Agriculture- Supplemental Nutrition Assistance $10.5 billion Social Security Supplemental Security Income $6.5 billion Labor- Federal and State Unemployment Insurance $5.1 billion ...

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This shows that the US and the EU are today more affluent than 100 years back but with it has come a dangerous neglect of healthy living that is destroying happiness for people as they reach the age of 70 yers. A lack of education about healthy living in schools and society is showing up.  Only 10% of people in US and EU have good cognitive, physical and mental health in a major study from 3 Universities. The study tracked 100,000 people over 3 decades their eating habits and exercise and other variables and was done by University of Montreal, University of Copenhagen and Harvard. It shows how the quality of life has deteriorated in the US and the EU as diseases become more chronic for the heart, diabetes, and higher prevalence in population of obesity and substance use disorders. So that older people have more conditions and few can live healthy lives- less than 10% if this study is an indicator of the state of the Nation's health. One of the findings is that a plant based diet with moderate animal protein such as diary and fish is the best for reaching 70 years of age with the best quality of overall physical and mental health. ...

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The major part of 4.5 million deaths have been saved in the US just by the decline in smoking. About 4.5 times the losses during Covid pandemic 4.5 million American saved lives just from the efforts to cut smoking of the last 2 decades, and better cancer screening and treatments. Stopping cigarette advertising saved millions of lives. It means letting processed food companies advertise freely, the FDA not doing its job by letting  companies use Red Dyes in food, and lobbyists for plastics companies not stopping PFAS contamination are all costing American lives in the hundreds of thousands. Cancer rate for women keeps increasing as men cancer rate drops. Men took up smoking in large numbers and the decline in smoking had a bigger impact for men's cancer rate. The overall cancer rate has dropped by 34% since 1991 largely because of the decline in smoking. Men's cancer is now almost even with women in 2021 compared to men having 1.6 times the rate of women in 1992. For women increase in breast feeding and having children at a younger age reduced some kinds of breast cancers, as women had children later, and higher use of alcohol, physical inactivity, obesity added to increase in cancer rates. ...

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“Getting gas from America is always a good thing.” Alaska's governor Dunleavy tells Japanese and South Korean, Taiwanese investors. Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba says the LNG from Alaska is "wonderful for us." It takes just 7 days to get this LNG to South Korea or Japan.  Mike Dunleavy's plan, called Alaska LNG, is for a 800-mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay that would feed gas to a to be built liquefied natural gas terminal at Nikiski near Anchorage. What was once just a hope as investors pulled out is now a reality with DJT telling Dunleavy, "lets get it done, let's not just talk about it." Note that something similar is likely to happen for car investments by Japanese and South Korean companies. Already Hyundia Kia has announced a $21 billion investment. For Alaska LNG pipeline South Korea has said this has "infinite possibilities for growth." US Navy is rebuilding for protecting the Asia-Pacific, Japan and South Korea know the importance of the actions of the new Republican administration for Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region, and tariffs can be a time to invest more in American manufacturing and show restraint in pricing. ...

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How reckless actions that ignored public sentiment on illegal migrants have led to a surge in Germany and the US of foreign born populations, It jumped in Germany from 7.5% in 1990 to 21% by 2025 and in the US from 10% in 1990 to to 16%  in 2025. This means as shown by NYT graphs the US went up by 60% and Germany went up by a shocking 300%. This is why young Germans voted for the AfD. Merz's CDU has rejected Merkel policies and has imposed a series of actions to put in border controls, stop migrants.  Putting such stress on working class communities is an affront to people when they face crime as has happened in recent years, and when cost of living issues, covid pandemic have already caused much stress. Here the NYT reverses its position on migration and speaks of the dangers of such migration, the stress on woking class communities where migrants settle, on the public services and resources stretched to their limit. It now says Merkel made a huge mistake and ignored public sentiment leading to the situation where extreme opinions endanger democracy and young people in Germany prefer the AfD to the CDU and SPD, or the Greens. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on 2025 DJT version of Eisenhower's 1954 Operation Wetback to curb foreign born employment. After the Biden years when foreign born employment surged the decrease by 773,000 shown by Trend Macro in foreign born employment for Jan- April 2025 in the WSJ, is an adjustment from the effects of Biden open border policies. This also prevents downward pressure on wages for American workers in construction, hospitality and retail- the story of the last 20 years. This is similar to what would have been seen in the Eisenhower years after Operation Wetback led by Gen. Swing and AG Brownell in 1954. Just as by 1956 the foreign born employment declined after years of uninhibited illegal migrant growth and open borders in the years of World War II. Note that Mexico's agribusiness owners were against open borders in that period and the Mexican government was also against open borders and the loss of labor from Mexico needed in agribusiness. Today the situation is somewhat different but in the sense of an adjustment it may be very similar. Just as in 1956 Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 had a mandate for making this adjustment DJT has won a mandate for a similar adjustment in 2024. ...

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Lisa Ridzen a sociology student lives 550 miles north of Stockholm. She is the author of a story about older people, Bo an 89 year old born in 2015 who lives with his wife Frederika who has early Alzheimers and a dog in northern Sweden. It is a story about the difficult life of the elderly in today's society.

Ridzen says- "If I may indulge in a bit of politics, I think we're really heading in the wrong direction. If it were up to me, our elders would be fed with a golden spoon." She is aware of the conditions for the elderly- not so good today, as they struggle to live their lives neglected by a society run by private groups for profit.

The book has struck a nerve- in Sweden where it sold 200,000 copies. It is set to be translated into French in 2026 by a Quebec publishing house, and translated into 30 languages.

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European leaders meeting in Brussels set Sunday July 12, 2015, as the final day by which Greece is expected to submit proposals and reach an agreement with the EU. All EU leaders will be present at the Sunday meeting at which Greece's postion as a member in the eurozone will be settled, and measures for humanitarian aid to Greece can be discussed. EU chief Juncker called Sunday July 12, 2015 the deadline date. Greece's finance minister Tsakalotos surprised European leaders by not having any proposals to submit. German chancellor Merkel said at a news conference- "There are only a few days left for a discussion on what's going to happen in the future. What we need now is a multi-annual program tht goes far beyond the program that we discussed ony 10 days ago." Experts at Bruegel research organization in Brussels say the ECB providing emergency financing is dependent on Greece coming to an agreement with the EU, and if no agreement is reached Greece's exit from the eurozone is very likely....

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The deep recession in the UK and the alienation of ordinary working class voters from the policies of Labor under Blair and Gordon Brown, has led to a surge in support for Jeremy Corbyn, as he is elected to the leadership of the Labor Party. Corbyn did not actively seek the leadership position- he was persuaded to lead Labor's left wing because of his modest demeanor and willingness to honestly debate the issues of austerity policies. The other candidates, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall failed to ignite support in the party. Cooper was seen as unable to take a clear position on economic issues. Faced with the prospect of having leaders reflecting Blair's centrist positions in changing times when ordinary people have suffered the effects of years of austerity policies and recession, Labor party members voted for a candidate who strongly supports a different vision. Corbyn supports increased spending on education by removing fees for college education put into effect uder Labor governments, in health services, and in infrastructure spending for transport and other fields to boost employment. ...

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Huaxi, Jiangsu province, a few hours car ride northwest of Shanghai, is a village of 2000 residents. It has built a 74 story skyscraper, with a concert hall and a revolving restaurant. The village residents have joint ownership through Jiangsu Huaxi Corporation with the companies 2009 report claiming it has investments in businesses that return 50 billion renminbi or $7.7 billion in income. About 25,000 workers, mostly migrant workers, are said to be employed by the village. These workers work and live in an area outside the village. The whole story appears to be more that a bit bizarre. There is no other information on where this money is coming from and who is managing it. If anything this kind of story suggests how inflated and bizarre the property market in China has become. Even the word bubble may be understating what is happening. A massive misallocation of capital is taking place with the lack of transparency and corruption making this possible, which will very likely affect long term development....

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Rumelt argues that efforts to induce aconsumption led recovery won't work in 2011-2012 because of the high debt to income ratio of American households, reminiscent of the situtation in the 1930's as America went into World War II. It took a long period of over a decade to bring debt to income ratios down during the 1940's to 20% for America to once again stage a consumption based recovery. Since the solution of war time engagment and lower consumer spending due to wartime rationing is not a feasible solution today, a lot depends on stimulating investment. Rumelt does not say how this would happen in practice as corporations invest to increase production in a consumer based economy. Corporations can invest on increasing production for growing emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil, and this is happening today. But this does not increase growth in the U.S. economy, except in the limited sense that some of the high end development work takes place in the U.S. Policies that stimulate investment would set the stage for a future recovery. ...

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Sharp showed a loss of $3.1 billion for the third quarter of 2012, far larger than expected. Sharp's new forecast is for losses of $5.6 billion for 2012. Sharp CEO, Takashi Okuda, even said the company has "material doubts" about its survival because of "serious negative operating cash flow." Sharp made large bets on LCD panel manufacturing with large investments in added capacity as the television market turned into a commodity business with declining prices and with new competition from China. Just one factory in Sakai, Japan, could manufacture 6 million LCD panels a year- the total global market size at the time. Two other events hurt Sharp- missing the smartphone shift with the introduction of the iPhone in Japan in 2008 leading to a sharp drop in sales, and the collapse of the solar business with cheap products from China. The global economic crisis and overstretched consumers in the U.S. and Europe led to declining sales. Sharp's new factories for LCD panels at Kaneyama now make panels for iPads and iPhones. ...

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Jan Corzine will tell the House Agriculture Committee in hearings today in prepared testimony: "I simply don't know where the money is," and that "there were an extraordinary number of transactions during MF Global's last few days." Trustees looking at MF Global liquidation say about $1.2 billion is missing from customer accounts. MF Global made extraordinary bets on European sovereign debt of Italy, Spain and Portugal and other countries of over $6 billion. He says he reduced the leverage of the firm from 37 to 1 in early 2010 to 30 to 1 in late 2011. He says there were discussions where his strategy was debated and that it was prudent strategy to make these investments. He lobbied the CFTC on the issue of whether there should be a ban on futures firms swapping customer funds for higher yielding assets such as government bonds, because these transactions would benefit futures commission merchants. There are questions of conflicts of interest because CFTC head Gary Gensler and Jan Corzine both worked closely at Goldman Sachs....

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Spain's deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 6.0 percent for 2011. The target set by the Rajoy government is for the deficit to be lowered to 4.4% in 2012. Newly elected prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, told parliament that the "outlook could not be darker," with the economy expected to contract in the fourth quarter and in 2012. Rajoy, plans to introduce emergency budget measures on Dec. 30, 2011, labor market changes in the first quarter of 2012, and a banking sector cleanup in the first half of 2012. Savings of 16.5 billion euros will be needed to meet the 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012. Rajoy is studying the situation before announcing budget cuts. He affirmed that pensions which were frozen in 2011, will be raised in 2012 in line with inflation. He enjoys the support of France's president Sarkozy and German chancellor Merkel, as all three leaders are heads of conservative parties in Europe, and has excellent rapport with them going back to the period when Rajoy led the opposition party in Spain....

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Romania, one of the poorest nations in the EU, has per capita GDP half the EU average. Years of large spending before the financial crisis hit in 2008 have led to high debt levels and turning to the IMF for assistance. The IMF and the EU arranged a loan of $26 billion in 2009 with conditions for spending cuts. GDP declined by 7% in 2009. In 2011 GDP increased by 2.5% and in 2012 about 1.5-2% growth is expected. The spending cuts included cutting 200,000 government jobs since 2009, with another 100,000 jobs to be cut in 2012. Wage cuts of 25% were made. Other actions include raising the retirement age, removing special pensions for the military and police, raising the value added tax and cuttting subsidies including heating help. The result is that polls now show the centre right government of Emil Bloc has support from only 20% of people polled compared to 50% for the main opposition party. Emil Bloc resigned after weeks of protest on February 7, 2012.

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Greek unemployment is up to 11% and this does not reflect the women who are not registering as unemployed. About 100,000 public sector workers will be let go by 2013 as the austeity plan takes effect. The three year reform programme from the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB tries to cut the budget deficit from 13.6% to 2.7% of GDP in a quick three years even as the econmy is shrinking. The criticism of Germany is relatively less, but there is strong resentment in Greece for the IMF program with 60% of Greeks opposing it. And in Germany Merkel faces voter resentment of having to pay for other EU member countries mistakes in the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, where her CDU and FDP coalition faces a tough challenge. Intenationally Merkel is facing tough criticism for waffling as the euro currency faced a serious threat. The whole European Union plan was being put to the test resulting in the size of the bailout growing from $60 billon to $160 billion in a few weeks, many experts calling it ineptitude....

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After test driving a Tesla Roadster in California in April 2010, Akio Toyoda, Toyota CEO, asked a senior executive Ihara to test-drive Tesla's Model S prototype car. This has led to a deal between the two companies, Tesla Motors and Toyota. Under this deal Tesla will use the NUMMI manufacturing facilities in Fremont, California, to build the Model S electric car. Model S is Tesla version of an electric car that would fit high end customer's budget for an electric car. The Model S price is starts at $50,000. Before this Tesla build 1000 Roadster electric cars which cost $100,000 each. Tesla was given $465 million by the US governmet to make a car that would be closer to what car buyers pay for premium cars. As part of this deal Toyota will buy $50 million of Tesla stock after its IPO. Toyota will cooperate with Tesla in the development of electric car parts and production systems and engineering. Separately Toyota plans to bring its own electric car to the market by 2012.

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The European bank stress tests could trigger the restructuring of the troubled landesbank sector in Germany say German experts. The landesbanks do about 25% of the lending in Germany and are in severe financial stress. The landesbanks suffered hundreds of billions of losses in the US subprime mortgage securities. There has been no serious reform of the landesbanks. Even though the management of one of the landesbanks Bayerische Landesbank in Munich was under criminal investigation- the management made bad decisions that led to the losses in bad investments totalling 25% of the Bavarian state's yearly budget. A similiar problem is unfolding in Spain where the Spanish government has initiated action for the troubled cajas bank sector, the regional savings banks in Spain. In Spain the government and opposition came together to reach an agreemet to consolidate the cajas from 45 to about 20 and set aside a fund of 99 billion euros for this task. In Germany the landesbanks are controlled by German states and regional savings banks, so the German government has no direct control over this failing banking sector....