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More housing supply in the west and less in the northeastern US in 2025.

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A 2024 US International Trade Commission report by David Riker of the effects on imports of 25% US tariff shows a 75% reduction in imports and a 5% increase in US prices.  It would lead to large new investments in the US auto industry in different states. Hyundai recently announced a $21 billion investment plan in the US and building of a steel plant in Louisiana. General Motors will increase investments in the US and expand production. Other Japanese companies will make large investments for a presence in the US market.

"A new 25% tariff on U.S. imports from outside of North America would reduce vehicle imports by 73.9%, increase average prices of vehicles in the United States by 5.0%, and increase variable profits from domestic production by 5.2%." David Riker, USITC

 

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A 2024 Study by the International Trade Commission predicted that a 25% tariff on imports would reduce imports by almost 75 percent while increasing average prices in the US by about 5 percent.  As US companies have about half of the US auto market this would mean US auto manufacturers now have access to an additional 37 percent of the market by investing in auto plants in the US. US steel and aluminium plants will get additional investment to build these cars in the US. There is nothing new about this the US makers built plants in China. Germans, Japanese and Koreans took the US for stupid by keeping US cars out of their markets and thinking this could go on while by destroying US manufacturing it was  destroying America's middle class. It also gives the Germans BMW and VW, Subaru, the Japanese Toyota and Honda, Nissan, the South Koreans Kia and Hyundai, Chinese makers of EV's the option to Make in the USA and build plants invest in US manufacturing.  ...

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DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

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Cactus to Clouds ascent near Palm Springs, California. From cactus on the floor of the area to manzanita and oak, and up to pine forest near the top at 10,000 feet, the trail hike can be done in sections or a full hike to the top.

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Committing to staying social is a key part of retiring. David Richter, professor at Free University of Berlin, says that we have solid proof that first social contacts are reduced, then cognition declines.

Other activity that aids healthy retirement-

Being open to new experiences, pivot from one part of life to another

Volunteer work

Do something creative or novel

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Efforts to bring the two sides together for ceasefire succeed for Black Sea but hit snags along the way. Russia wanting to get sanctions lifted on it's Agricultural Bank to lift grain and fertilizer exports. A separate deal on not attacking energy infrastructure was negotiated.  Fundamentally NATO needed to be reconstituted at the end of the Cold War. Russia's apparent weakness was temporary as it converted to a market economy from the Soviet model. It's GDP is not a correct representation of it's capabilities and need for respect as an advanced European economy. With US-Russian cooperation nothing like Syria and Venezuelan disasters would have happened disrupting the fabric of American and European democratic systems. Russian conditions include ones that were clear from the early days of the war. Ukraine joining NATO threatens Russian security. That this was not to be allowed. And Ukraine to relinquish territory now controlled by Russia in Crimea and in Ukraine's east. DJT in the US has ruled out joining NATO for Ukraine. These territories have been integrated into Russia and it is unlikely that this would change so that continuation of the war after so many lives are lost doesn't make sense. Europeans particular Baltic Republics and Poland are concerned about Russian intentions- this too is not going to change by continuation of the war. It can be addressed by putting in concrete safeguards. ...

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Business looks for taxes to be tackled first before tariffs. DJT policy sets it the other way in second term tariffs first, then taxes. Tariffs are about fentanyl flows and stopping illegal migrant drug trafficking, for investment in US manufacturing and fair trade, in the DJT second term. To get a sense of what discussion is taking place. Former VP Pence and officials in the DJT first term debate with Scott Bessent at Treasury on policy- Former VP Pence says trade has lifted America's standard of living, but it ignores the loss of manufacturing base America needs for supply chain security and for its national security, and for jobs that maintain the standard of living. Treasury's Scott Bessent said in a podcast- "VP Pence's  ‘let them eat flat screens economic policy’ isn’t what people want. They don’t want baubles from China.” "The American dream is more than the access to cheap goods."   ...

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DJT Commerce Department restricts access to US technology to Chinese defense companies. Inspur a server maker and Sugon supercomputer maker are added to the list limiting access. The goal is to restrict access to technology for defense applications including hypersonic weapons. This goes further than the Biden administration.

Export controls don't always work when Chinese companies control ownership in American companies as shown in this example in WSJ for Inspur Corp.

"American technology should never be used against the American people,” -Jeffrey Kessler,  head of the US Commerce department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.

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US Typhoon land based missile systems installed in Luzon in the Philippines have longer range 1200 miles and shorter range missiles, and capabilities for intercepting hypersonic missiles. These were installed by the Biden administration and are being continued under DJT. The Typhon system is seen as part of working with allies in the Indo-Pacific as China has installed its own missile systems in the Pacific. Japan and India are developing their own missile defense systems using their own technologies.

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Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US, and China a significant $439 billion in additional exports to US, which makes it incredible that for so long it did not take effective action to stop fentanyl flows, and Mexico allowed migrant trafficking across it's borders through 2016-2024. Even in the face of this becoming an explosive issue in the US with DJT elected in 2016 and the Border Wall being built. A silent but still existing in plain sight idea that the US would tolerate such flows became part of the culture in media outlets in the US and Europe and China and other parts of the world, even when there was a storm of discontent building about manufacturing shipped overseas hurting communities in the US since 2010, with added burden of safety endangered in these neighborhoods from fentanyl, drugs and illegal migrants. What worsened this situation and pain in the US was the idea that somehow it was the US's fault, an incomprehensible disdain for the US, US that enabled the modernization of China, Mexico, and Canada's economies. China sends $439 billion in exports more than the US does to China (US exports $143 billion China $582 billion in 2024). It is only surface presentation of indignation of face saving that these trading partners are showing when the real facts point to an extraordinary and incomprehensible disdain for the US as a nation in decline. There is a feeling in parts of Europe of American disdain for  Europe, without mention of the disdain for the US in Europe, China, Mexico and Canada and other parts of the world. Particularly disdain for neglected communities in the US that have suffered for far too long under previous administrations of Clinton-Bush-Obama with shipping of manufacturing and jobs overseas and inaction on drugs and illegal migrant flows. The EU Canada retaliatory approach has not worked. When DJT proposed doubling the tariffs imposed by US in the face of Canada EU retaliatory steps, the EU and Canada pulled back. Part of the reason is that in the case of Canada it is an economy one tenth the size of the US. The other is that there are real concerns on the US side that Canada EU are not playing fairly in trade. And Canada, Mexico, China, have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US.  ...

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A Vance chat with Hegseth on Signal encrypted App with privacy accidentally draws in a journalist at Atlantic magazine Jeffrey Goldberg. Details are disclosed which include references to the Europeans as "free loaders."

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South Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world after the Korean war when the program of adoption was developed. It will now be handled by a government agency.

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Signal is encrypted end to end, yet security requires more than that, security requiring care taken by the user himself in how he uses it.

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Palava 5000 acre experimental model town near Mumbai, India, - minimal AC designed.

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Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

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What it takes to put a CDU/SPD coalition government in Germany- 16 working groups, 250 negotiators, 10 work days. And that is only the first step. It then goes to party leaders talking with their working groups. Taxes and migration policy are 2 key hurdles. Lars Kingbeil on the Social Democrat side, Carsten Linnemann on the Christian Democrat side with to be chancellor Merz. Both sides say some friction, dissent is normal after an election in which the CDU barely crossed 29% and the SPD made it only to 16% of the vote. Both sides see each other as indispensable. CDU feels SPD is sticking to its positions. Migration- SPD's Carl Stegner says- "The SPD will not engage in a contest to treat as badly as possible those who have come to Germany and have done nothing wrong." The CDU wants to give only "bed, bread and soap," to rejected asylum seekers. It sees its promises in the election as real when it made clear statements to stop migration and cut benefits, with its credibility at stake. CDU also believes that like DJT in the USA this tough policy is certain to make such migration unattractive. The other difference is on Taxes- the SPD wants to see higher taxes on the well off. ...