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Key Indian projects in Sri Lanka or Ceylon are the Kankesanthurai harbor in northern Sri Lanka and the Ind0-Japanses East Container Terminal at Colombo port. In Maldives it is the Greater Male Connectivity Port.With its expertise and leadership in solar energy India is also launching solar initiatives in Sri Lanka. India has focused efforts on developing human capital and employment intensive sectors. This contrasts with the non concessional loans that finance infrastructure projects often with Chinese labor that do not generate the jobs Sri Lanka or Ceylon so desperately needs. Earlier period of Chinese infrastructure projects led to the debt trap with building of Hambantota port and facilities which Sri Lanka could not effectively utilize, and led to buildup of interest on loans. Sri Lanka now has the opportunity to make a new beginning as part of the SAGAR (Security and Economic Cooperation for All). The whole range of intitiatives in many areas show India's long experience in working with Sri Lanka since 1900 when early development projects were initiated. India has a long list of projects to help Sri Lanka keep up with India in its development- two education tourism projects, ITEC Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation, and Technology Adoption Project. This opens a new path for Sri Lanka to make steady progress on a wide range of projects for the next 10 years for sustainable development. As India grows this will expand the range of possibilities for Sri Lanka that it could never achieve on its own. Many new projects can also be done with the economic cooperation and assistance of UK, U.S. Japan and India to broaden the range of possibilities and financing. ...

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The India- U.S. trade deal after the negotiations and the visit of the Indian prime minister to the U.S. is expected to take additional time. The U.S. wanted to see a 20% duty on mobile phones and ethernet switches to be reduced, greater access to the Indian market for medical devices such as stents and knee implants, and greater access for dairy, agricultural products. Making these products affordable in India is a goal of the government preventing it from making concessions. India wants preferential access to the U.S. market as a developing country restored under the Generalized System of Preferences.  A comprehensive trade deal would have to include issues of intellectual property, e-commerce, and the sensitive issue of H1B visas. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal led negotiations for India and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the two sides "narrowed" down their differences. India's Jio from Reliance Group has hugely reduced the price of mobile phones and mobile data making it accessible with 4G across the country at prices that are the lowest in the world. The introduction of a universal health care program requires bringing down the price of medical products to improve access to modern medicine. This means less room for American products that would increase the price and reduce access in a vast developing country. India is also playing catchup in these technologies so that there is less room for unrestricted entry in the Indian market.  Efforts were made to increase trade and investment in India with the help of Mr. Bloomberg during the visit of the prime minister, and the Bill Gates Foundation continued its commitment to public welfare gains in India in the fields of sanitation, hygiene and healthcare.  ...

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The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

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Claire Cain Miller provides this exceptional account of the ways lack of family friendly and maternity leave policies is hurting not just women in America, but America's economic and technological progress. Strangely one hears little about how the lack of paid leave for women for maternity and other reasons, even as it hurts economic growth with the lower participation of women in the labor force. This is being vigorously discussed in Germany and Japan with calls for more family friendly workplace policies and more child care facilities to encourage women to join the workplace or continue working and pursuing careers. This happens when the overall labor force participation rate for women and men in the U.S. is declining, making this an important issue. Equally significant is that this reduces the contribution women can make to technological and scientific progress, and productivity improvements, because 59% of higher education degress are now going to women. The case of a Toshiba research engineer who was able to tackle a problem critical to development of the next generation of television technologies after Toshiba let her continue in her research role with friendly maternity leave policy, is an example of the kind of technical progress lost to the economy without such policy in Japan or in the U.S. See the link for Toshiba. Miller provides the example of Google, where attrition for women employees dropped by 50% with family friendly maternity leave policies. For Google, Toshiba, and other companies with women having advanced degrees the cost of hiring a new employee or making up for the loss of losing valuable women employees is significant. The U.S. is the only developed country without paid maternity leave. Only 59% of workers say their employers offer them paid maternity leave. California is the first state in the U.S. to offer paid parental leave. ...

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President Obama tells Hispanic high school students he supports a bipartisan plan for immigration reform from Senators Graham, McCain, Rubio, and Schumer. A critical part of the plan and the President's plan is a pathway to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants. Obama wants to see a pathway "from the outset," senators say this should happen after stricter enforcement requirements are met. If the senators do not move ahead with this plan the White House will put forward his own plan.

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Allan Meltzer says a Fed QE III woud be bad monetary policy. He puts several questions to Bernanke- how the Fed and Ben Bernanke can know now what is the right interest rate policy in mid 2013, and what reason can the Fed give for adding excess reserves when U.S. banks have $1.6 trillion in idle reserves at the Fed. Meltzer cautions the Fed and other policymakers not to pay attention only to short term forecasts, which can be susceptible to large errors. And calls for attention to the long term consequences of their actions. One point he emphasizes is that the unemployment problem cannot be resolved with short term policy actions nor can it be resolved in a short time. It will take population growth, falling housing prices and rising rents to create opportunities for new construction. Another change is the transition to a less consumption driven and more export oriented economy. This transition which has started will also take time. He urges the Congress and the administration to focus on: reducing corporate tax rates by closing loopholes, long-term reductions in entitlement spending, a 5 year moratatorium on new regulations, and the Fed adopting an explicit inflation target between 0% and 2%....

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Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...

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Elections for 500 members of the lower house of parliament in Mexico and for 15 governorships. Lopez Obrador won the presidency in 2018 with a huge majority, 30 points ahead of the rivals from the PAN and PRI parties. Average of five recent polls show he is still popular after the pandemic and winning 40% of the vote followed by PRI at 18%, PAN at 17%.  Obrador has increased pensions for the elderly by using savings from other parts of the budget, and increased the minimum wage several times. He seeks to reverse a 2013 law that privatized parts of the oil and electricity sectors. Obrador plans a large refinery project and rail infrastructure projects if he wins a strong majority in the lower house, in addition to social spending that would help the informal economy which has suffered during the pandemic. Across LatinAmerica, in Peru and other places the shift is to social spending to support the informal sector and anticorruption efforts so that good governance supports infrastructure spending. ...

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Germany generated 45% of its energy from coal and 25% from renewable energy sources in 2013, according to AG Energiebilanzen. Chancellor Merkel, who as environment minister supported the Kyoto agreement in 1997, announced a plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 62 to 78 million tons by 2020. The cuts will rest largely on improving energy efficiency, and with a third of the cuts in the power industry. With the drive to close 17 nuclear plants in Germany, the power industry has increasingly relied on coal generated energy. This is an effort to change this situation. It is supported by German public opinion.

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The full text of the letter is given here. In this letter the U.S. sets out some important facts about events that happened during the coronavirus crisis during the crucial 4 month period from December 2019 to March 2020. Every week lost in this time due to reasons of a lack of transparency, openness meant hundreds of thousands of people more infected and tens of thousands of deaths worldwide. There are questions of transparency, of openness and this raises questions about the manner in which the World Health Assembly operates with hundreds of small countries in Africa and Asia having votes equal to that of the U.S., India, Brazil, Mexico with votes taken of over 200 countries. The entire election process can now be seen as questionable, when over a billion people in one country alone such as India or hundreds of millions in Brazil and Mexico would have to bear the consequences of poor decisions made by small countries that can be swayed in one direction or another based on political bias and other considerations that have nothing to do with global health.  At the conclusion of the letter by the U.S. to the current WHO shaped by a controversial election in 2017 the following is stated about the standards set by Gro Harlem Brundtland and which helped the world prevent the SARS crisis which originated in China in 2003 from spreading to the large countries of the world India, Brazil, Mexico, and other such countries in Asia and Africa, Latin America, and the U.S. European Union. "In 2003, in response to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China, Director-General Harlem Brundtland boldly declared the World Health Organization’s first emergency travel advisory in 55 years, recommending against travel to and from the disease epicenter in southern China. She also did not hesitate to criticize China for endangering global health by attempting to cover up the outbreak through its usual playbook of arresting whistleblowers and censoring media. Many lives could have been saved had you followed Dr. Brundtland’s example." Even this does not come to grips with the flawed way in which the election of WHO head is done. It can no longer be relied on when there is the danger that lack of transparency can emerge in the WHO leadership itself because of a flawed process. It risks endangering the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions in countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, as well as in the relatively small countries of Africa and Latin America where even basic water supplies are at risk but which could tilt elections at the World Health Assembly. Consider that a cyclone just hit the Indian state of West Bengal and Bangladesh on May 20 just as the coronavirus pandemic is spreading. That this region of 1.5 billion people had just 2 votes out of over 200 cast at the World Health Assembly in 2017 shocking. And even these votes cast based on old geopolitical considerations not how good the candidate is, and how good the country he is coming from is in terms of its record  on public health. The irony here is that private foundations in the advanced countries in the U.S. and Europe some of whom are major donors to WHO did not think that more experienced candidates in their own countries with a better record of public health such as in France or Germany are better qualified, in a flawed NGO support mentality left from the Clinton years. Basically the people in these large countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico were disenfranchised, when the austerity policies were consuming the European Union, and the U.S. had just elected a new administration itself groping for ways to reverse years of neglect of public services and infrastructure priorities. They would trust good leaders no matter where they come from, who have a record of transparency, leadership, and all the values we cherish together no matter where we come from. ...

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The author Li Congjun, is head of the Xinhua News agency, official press agency of the People's Republic of China. He calls for rebalancing the global economy with China depending more on domestic consumption, efforts to restrain the excesses of property and asset price bubbles, and renewed focus on technology and investment.

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The new low cost Abbott test is about the size of a credit card and can be adminstered in a doctor's or school nurse's office. Test results are given in 15 minutes. Abbott says 97% of positive cases are detected. Plans are to increase production to 50 million in October from tens of millions shipped in September. It sees this test as the kind of test that can help schools and offices reopen. It is called the Binax Ag Card. 

It searches for virus proteins and is intended for use within 7 days of coronavirus symptoms. It involves a nasal swab given by a health care worker or nurse.

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Electricity rates in France have been lower for years. As France generates 80% of its electricity using nuclear power which is less costly than using natural gas or oil, and as rates are set by the government , the rates rates have been lower. Now the French government has authorized rate increases of 8% to large users and 6% to midsize users in business. Rates will go up to roughly $57 a megawatt hour excluding transmission costs. The estimated cost per megawatt hour at the new nuclear plant in Flamanville, France, is $46.

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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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Note that Goldman Sach's analysts who first predicted that oil prices could reach $100 are now predicting that the downward momentum is building up. The prediction from them now is that prices may go up further than the $96 right now but should drop to $80 by April. Its not too difficult to see why. First on the supply side the momentum for downward shift is not so significant but still there are signs. The Iraqi oil flow disruption either from a Turkish invasion of norther Iraq or from internal disruption is shrinking as the Turks see this as a small operation at most, and the Iraqi law and order situation is improving. The Iranian situation may be stabilizing without US intervention possibilities shrinking. On the supply side the oil majors except for Total see their output shrinking somewhat, and OPEC has not increased supplies significantly as oil inventories have not built up as they do before winter. But overall the supply situation is stable. On the demand side is where the significant downward momentum exists. With the US economy slowing down amid the buildup of the housing tumble and the credit crunch which looks to get worse in 2008 before stabilizing in 2009 and a stronger euro and other factors affecting Europe's expansion oil consumption by industry in the industrialized countries is slowing. Much of the pressure on oil prices comes from increases in demand each year from China and India. Here gasoline is subsidized by the government and this reduces incenive for conservation. The policy of letting market prices be reflected at the pump to a limited degree so as not to seriously affect people is now taking hold in these countries. In China prices were raised 10% and there is likely to be further increase in the near future. This along with the increasing awarenes of the dependence on foreign oil and the need for conservation in both China and India should build pressures in both countries to make the best use of resoures and have users share some of the burden of higher prices. The American and European gasoline market is driven by a public that has not been too conscious of conservation especially in America. It appears that high oil prices have not encouraged conservation, witness that with rebates for higher oil prices and zero interest rates financing large pickups are still selling at levels of 2005, and there has not been a significant reduction in consumption at the pump. What may shift this equation now is probably government mandated fuel economy standards. Europe already has new standards and the automakers there are racing to meet it with new technologies, in America its now almost certain that public sentiment and congressional sentiment is likely to lead to similiar standards or at least significantly improved standard. Public sentiment is already pushing the automakers in the USA to introduce new models with higher fuel economy and use this as a n advertising and competitive edge. This reduction in gasoline consumption at the pump through new technologies in the industrialized countries and through price increases being allowed to flow through in the developing countries of China and India in a stable supply environment where the downward political risks are stable may be the pivotal turning point for the price of oil. ...

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Izzo looks at the diverging picture presented by two Labor Department surveys of unemployment in the U.S. for July 2012- an increase of 163,000 jobs or 195,000 fewer people working. One, the Household Survey is based on survey of individual households counts people and the other the Establishment Survey based on a survey of employers counts jobs. If one person holds two jobs he would be counted twice in the Establishment Survey and once in the Household Survey. If a person is a unincorporated self employed person, a family employee who isn't paid, a farm worker who is employed but not paid he is counted in the Household Survey, but left out in the Establishment Survey. The Labor Department prepares a third measure of the number of people working by adjusting for multple jobholders and for workers not counted in the survey of businesses. By this third measure the U.S. economy added 108,000 jobs in July, which is far less than the 163,000 jobs shown added in the Establishment Survey. Because of the increase in parttime work it is likely that more people are doing multiple jobs which may explain some of this difference. Another reason could be the severe drought in the U.S. that may be reducing the opportunities for work for freelance construction maintenance and day laborers because of restrictions on water use. This shows that it takes several months of data to get some sense of where unemployment is headed, adjusting the numbers for unusual events or weather, and looking behind the numbers to the sectors generating jobs. In the first quarter of 2012 more jobs were generated in the U.S. because of a mild winter, followed by fewer jobs in the second quarter, which required looking at the two quarters together to get a better picture. Adjusting for the long term unemployed who have quit looking is also necessary to get a correct reading of U.S. unemployment levels....

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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The business model where hedge funds take in short term money from investors for a 2% fee and a fifth of profits, and invest it in longer term bets and sometimes illiquid situations, is breaking down. This happened to the investment banks and ended with the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. With losses approaching 20%, many illiquid investments, and investors asking for their money, this model may lead to a rapid shrinking of the hedge fund industry, which now has about $2 trillion of investor money.