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Following the defeat of chancellor Merkel's CDU party in the 2016 Berlin state election, getting just 17.6% of the vote, chancellor Merkel looked reflective and a bit emotional about the result. She urged Germans to understand that this decision on refugees will benefit Germany in the long run. She said she would work to regain the people's trust. Looking back she said-"If I could, I would turn back time by many, many years to better prepare myself and the whole German government for the situation that reached us unprepared in late summer 2015." She says the decision was "absolutely right" to admit the refugees from war torn Syria, but accepted that "it led to a time when we did not have enough control over the situation." Both the CDU and the SPD, the main parties, lost about 6-7 percentage points each in votes cast. Gainers were the Free Democratic Party with 6.7% of the vote, who gained votes from the CDU. For the SPD votes were lost to the Greens and the left party Die Linke each party winning over 15% of votes.  Both the CDU and the SPD had candidates who did not attract voter interest. A popular former Mayor of Berlin from the SPD did not run in this election. The anti-immigrant AfD party gained  about 14% of votes.  ...

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Outbound shipments rise 12.7% for China from the prior year in October 2024. How will Trump's tariff plans affect these figures?

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How the cost of living problems add to the pandemic and housing shortages in reducing the baby population in the US in 2024.

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Total Lunar Eclipse Thursday, March 13 2025 noon to 6 am- partial and lunar total eclipse at 1.09 am to 3.31 am. 

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Russian strategy is to continue to make gains and not seek an immediate ceasefire. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine continue in May 2025.

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ECB cuts rates to 2.0% from 2.25% June 2025. This is the eighth such cut in a year. Inflation in Eurozone is 2.0%.

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In getting the support of an overwhelming majority of Senators to support Ukraine aid Mitch McConnell plays a key role. His remarks on the floor of the US Senate underscored the gravity of this moment in the Congress: "Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression. Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face. Today’s action is overdue, but our work does not end here. Trust in American resolve is not rebuilt overnight. Expanding and restocking the arsenal of democracy doesn’t just happen by magic.” President Biden's effort will be remembered. It is similar to what happened when Harry Truman had to persuade a war weary country and the US Congress in 1948 to pass bill for aid to Greece and Turkey to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with support from the Soviet bloc. McConnell will be remembered for his action, so will Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator Schumer and other Republicans, Democrats that worked hard to get a decisive vote for Ukraine aid of 79 For to 18 Against, with 15 Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against. Alabama Senator shifted to a yes vote saying most of that $61 billion of aid to Ukraine will be spent in the US to hire American workers in defense industries. A $10 billion loan provision with forgiveness included was a way to get the former president to support it. On the third try America's Congress gets it through in a decisive manner with overwhelming support. This is not unlike the efforts before, when Aid to Greece and Turkey had to be passed through Congress under president Harry Truman in 1948 with both countries facing a danger of Communist takeover supported by the Soviet bloc with only US support keeping democracy in both Greece and Turkey. Even in 1948 to a war weary country Harry Truman had to persist and get the support he did from the US Congress as president Biden did today April 23, 2024. ...

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Economy Minister Peter Altmaier presented the latest outlook for the German economy, saying that the economy would contract less than expected. The contraction for 2020 is expected to be 5.8% instead of 6.3%. Contraction was 10% in the second quarter. The forecast of 5.2% in 2021 was lowered to 4.4%. Some crucial sectors such as tourism and aviation will take time to recover. 

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Special Counsel Robert Mueller issues an indictment of 13 Russians on Feb. 16th, 2018. The indictment was made public by deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, at a press conference. President Trump says the Internet Research Agency in Russia started its activities in 2014 long before he announced his bid for the presidency, and now acknowledges the Russian activities in the U.S. presidential election of 2016.

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One year after the tax cut analysis shows the effects were muted and most of the increase in business investment comes from the drop in energy prices. The U.S. economy grew 3% in 2018. The tax cut lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and cut rates for closely held businesses. Analysis shows investment growth picking up from trends in 2016 and 2017.

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South Africa's currency drops to 16.78 against the dollar by Jan 11, 2016. The currency is affected by the slowdown in China since June 2015. In the 6 months from June 2015 to the beginning of 2016 the currency lost 26% of its value.

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Peggy Noonan describes the Trump candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. She points out that this is a result of the public discontent and dissatisfaction with politicians, and government, which is seen as not able to get things done. She talks to one Tennessee woman in her 60's who describes in detail why she supports Trump. Trump has touched a chord with many voters because of how little they trust politicians in general, Republican, Democrat, or Libertarian, or some other type. As with the UK Independence Party this type of leader taps into resentment of illegal immigrants. In France, Spain, UK and other parts of Europe fringe parties are drawing increasing support because voters have lost faith in existing mainstream parties. In the U.S. this takes the form of discontent expressed through a fringe candidate within a mainstream party itself. Voters put up with inconsistent positions, extravagant claims and charges, just to have an alternative. And Noonan points out that this is not going away anytime soon. As 2016 comes closer the UK election offers some insights- it was thought initially that UKIP would split the Conservative vote, but the elections showed UKIP splitting the Labor vote in the north of England. Voters distrusted mainstream politicians, in the final result they distrusted Labor politicians more. ...

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The U.S. Fed's plans for reinvestment of $216 billion in Treasuries that will mature in 2016. The numbers are smaller in 2014 and 2015. The Fed's William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve of New York, supports continued reinvestment. He says ending reinvestments risks inadvertently tightening credit and financial conditions, inconsistent with the Fed's intentions. Reinvesting would provide stimulus, even as the Fed gradually reduces its bond buying program, by keeping borrowing costs low.

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Is increasing taxes in the UK a good idea in 2025 for middle income people? Why Reeves is the wrong chancellor for Starmer and Labour in 2025 with her insistence on having everything balance to the last pound without looking at the big picture- people's strained finances and the need to do what DJT has done with the One Big Beautiful Act- to support mothers with childcare, the retired with nearly eliminating social security taxes, and finding the funding to do this in other ways, reducing taxes on small business to create new investment.

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Central Texas flash floods survivors in July 2025 tell their stories.

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 WSJ sees many hurdles for a regional peace from the Lebanon ceasefire of November 26, 2024. Past efforts have failed to stop rearming.

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Guantanamo migrants transferred to Honduras on way to Venezuela Feb 2025. The migrants were earlier flown to Guantanamo base in Cuba for security.

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Efforts to cut bureaucracy at the NHS in England and to put more workers at the frontline under the new Labour government in 2025.

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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Theresa May, Britain's Home Secretary in the Cameron government, is a candidate for prime minister with the planned resignation of David Cameron by the fall of 2016. May was first elected to parliament in 1997 from Maidenhead, a town west of London. She was educated at Oxford University, worked in financial services and the Bank of England, before entering politics. She is known for hard work, a direct approach, and candor on policy issues. During a annual party convention she told Conservative party members that "our base is too narrow, and so occasionally are our sympathies," adding that people called Conservatives as the "nasty party." This was the period when Blair's Third Way was popular and Labor Party was in power. A daughter of a clergy man, she presents a rather austere image but reassuring in turbulent times with a down to earth and patient manner.  Her sports hero is a cricketer Geoffrey Boycott, known for taking long patient batting stands on the cricket  grounds- something Britain needs as it faces long and difficult negotiations with the European Union.  During the EU referendum she supported Cameron and the Stay campaign but quietly, so that she can be seen as the Unity candidate for the deeply divided Conservative Party. On immigration  she was as Home Secretary responsible for one of the difficult issues of the Brexit campaign- with net immigration at 330,000 in 2015 exceeding the 100,000 target set by Cameron. That she retains confidence from all segments of the party, as well as her education, experience, and resilience, may provide some of the "calm and composed" manner that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for in the Brexit negotiation. ...

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Tensions rise in the Korean peninsula after the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea that could reach Alaska. U.S. General Brooks says only "self-restraint, which is a choice, is all that separates armistice from war." The 1953 armistice never really ended the war between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. The Kim regime in Pyongyang sees its missile systems and nuclear weapons as the only way for it to survive. For the U.S., Japan and North Korea, the situation is getting graver by the year, each year that North Korea develops its missile systems. The U.S. conducted its own military exercize with South Korea off the east coast, firing a number of missiles into the sea. Japan is now considering the Thaad missile defense system for its own defense. That missile defense system was put in place in South Korea by the U.S. in 2016. In a separate analysis David Sanger of the NYT says U.S. options are limited. After the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya which gave up its nuclear weapons capabilities, other regimes see the nuclear weapons as a way to survive, which is why the North Korean regime puts emphasis on its nuclear program. ...

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UN projections show median age of Chinese citizens will overtake that of Americans in 2020. Yet China's median income is only a quarter of that in the U.S. Life expectancy in China today is 76, very close to that in America. In 1960 a Chinese person born that year had life expectancy of 44 years.  China is aging at the pace of Japan, and a bit slower than South Korea, but wealth per capita was three times higher in South Korea and Japan than China when the aging accelerated. A Chinese woman fertility rate today is 1.6 compared to 4.6 in 1973. A prominent Chinese economist says in a recent report that median age in China in 2050 will be nearly 50 compared to 42 in America and 38 in India. WSJ cites figures showing China will have gone from 9 working age adults per retired person in 2000 to just two by 2050. So how to pay for retirement of all these workers today? Government spending on retirement is a tenth of GDP, about half the level in older wealthier countries, and increase in spending will impact growth. Today this is about 6.2% potential growth rate. It also pushes wages up with a shortage of workers in cities such as Shenzen and X'ian even with the use of new technology and robots in factories.  Solutions are to raise retirement age currently set at 60 years, increasing labor force participation of women as Japan has done, and increasing productivity. China has transferred 10% equity stakes in four state owned financial firms to the national pension fund to shore up its finances as estimates from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show it running out of money in 2035. Traditionally children supported families in old age but the one child policy leads to situations where the child is working or in another city. In Suzhou near Shanghai, a retirement business sends 1800 helpers to private homes and 130,000 retired people, in a new trend. The city administration of Shanghai plans 400 neighborhood care centres for elderly by 2022, with health clinics, drop in facilities, and homes. 12,000 elderly people use one centrre in central Shanghai area of Changning. ...

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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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US unemployment rate was at about 3.7% for the third quarter 2022 and 263,000 jobs were added in November according to the Labor Department. Other estimates show that these numbers could be overstated by 500,000 for the year and likely to be revised. There is a shortage of labour after the pandemic and the labor participation rate is lower than before the pandemic. The Fed chairman Jay Powell discussed the strong labor market and his plan to attack inflation with rising housing, food, energy costs coupled with wage increases using Fed policy of raising interest rates. Rates could go up to 4.5% with another 0.75 % increase in December 2022.  Powell said in response to questions at the Brookings Institution last week that he was feeling his way through this inflation episode that was very different from previous bouts of inflation having started with supply chain issues that stemmed from the pandemic. It then became widespread with fears that it could get entrenched if a sharp stand is not taken by the Fed. Powell also says that he is acutely aware that he wanted to pause and see the effects of interest rate increases so that there is no overreaching that would hurt the lower income groups. He emphasized that lack of aggressive action by the Fed could let inflation go on for 4 or 5 years hurting these lower income groups the most because the wage increases would be more than wiped out by inflation. Finding the right balance is important to Powell as he looks to manage the risks on both sides of this issue- to hit inflation hard without hurting the lower income groups of society. ...