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Bilateral trade between China and Russia is down 31% for the first half of 2015, and Chinese investment in Russia down by 20%, according to Moscow Carnegie Center. This is a result of the fall in oil prices, declining demand for commodities in China, and the economic downturn in Russia. After the western sanctions on Russia Chinese investors are cautious about making investments. This means Russia's large expectations that this would act as an offset for economic relations with Germany and other western nations is not working out in reality. The contract for the second gas deal for gas from western Siberia, for which a memorandum was signed with China in Nov. 2014, was not signed during Putin's visit to Beijing in September 2015. Experts say the economic environment is not favorable for gas deals with the uncertain economic outlook in China.

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Pulling back from the surge in both ICE agents patrolling Minneapolis streets and protestors going to the streets in a confrontation Border head Homan says this was not the right way of going about law enforcement. Homan said “I do not want to hear that everything that’s been done here is perfect." Instead of street sweep patrols by Border Patrol agents Border head Homan says after meeting with Atty Gen. Ellison of Minnesota, ICE will get people charged with crimes from the jails. In earlier remarks by Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary, she had mentioned that Minnesota state and local authorites were not cooperating and releasing people from the jails to the streets making ICE job more difficult. The Minnesota local authorites now agreed to cooperation with federal immigration authorites for better law enforcement. Minnesota is unique because the governor of the state and mayor are Democrats, and governor Walz was the VP candidate of Kamala Harris for Democrats, with a certain amount of belligerant opposition in that state to DJT and Homan. The lack of cooperation and the antipathy between the federal and local officials carried over, and more and more Border Patrol and immigration personnel were sent to the state reaching 3000. Compared to other Democrat states or cities- California and Tennessee, Washington DC, where initially there was criticism in the state of ICE Minnesota turned out to be different. The president was critical of the way Somali immigrants were settled in the state and the reported fraud for state benefits. The presence of ICE and Border Patrol under Bovino on Minneapolis streets led to more protests and confrontation. The DJT administration and Congress, other states are learning from this experience. ...

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The Ukraine war with increases in prices of oil and natural gas, and food imports has hit Bangladesh hard.  The currency has declined by 20% which also adds to the cost of imports. The government of Sheikh Hasina is seeking $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.  It is also seeking $4.5 billion for budgetary and balance of payments support through the new Resilience and Sustainability Facility set up by the IMF. The government is doing this in advance to avoid a situation in which most of the tax revenues go to paying for imports at high prices with little left for spending on development needs. Bangladesh imports cooking oil, wheat and other food, as well as fossil energy. The current account deficit is $17 billion and the foreign exchange reserves are about $39 billion in July, down from $45.5 billion in 2021, enough for 5 months of imports for a nation of 160 million people.  Action is being taken to curtail use of air conditioning at mosques. Power outages are increasing and electricity rationing is being done. ...

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Masoud Pezeshkian is elected president of Iran with 54% of the vote. He leads a reeformist faction which seeks respect for minorities, women in Iranian public life, and is against strict Hijab laws in Iran requiring women using headscarves covering. He is for getting US and EU sanctions lifted on Iran so that life of ordinary Iranians is not miserable.

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Following the pandemic and the floods Pakistan is in a precarious position with its finances. The IMF estimates $25 billion in debt servicing requirements per year for the next 3 years. Pakistan's situation is similar to Argentina and Sri Lanka, countries that have gone to the IMF. International financial institutions are owed $41 billion and China $30 billion.

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CERA study of 811 oil fields show that depletion rates will be 4.5% worldwide. Schlumberger's estimate is higher at 8%. CERA is on the optimistic side when it sees two Irans making up for one Iran lost. CERA estimates by 2017 33 million barrels a day will be lost from depletion. still it believes production would go up by 59 million barrels a day to 112 barrels a day. How can it say 59 its anoptimistic estimate of new stuff that will come out of the Caspian, Africa, Russia and other places in Asia and upto now unknown places. The reason its hard to estimate depletion is that OPEC and Russia are not sharing the data. CERA's estimate includes also stuff that comes from biofuels and natural gas liquids as half of that 59. As that 59 is 6 times today's Saudi output the estimates are coming under criticism and not widely accepted. IEA estimates demand will go up by 2.3% to 87.8 million barrels a day. But things may change as fuel efficiency becomes a big factor in reducing consumption and as millions of Asians join the world economy from rural areas the impact of more cars may not be as severe with cars that give 60 or so miles per gallon like the Tata Nano and the competitors it creates. And in the west the USA may not be so wasteful as it has been to make up for the increases in Asia of new motorists and industrial uses of energy. Meantime the gains from exploration at today's prices may provide additional output though not by what CERA's overestimate. ...

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This analysis from The Times of London provides critical information on the strategy for successfully tackling the coronavirus following the example of South Korea and progress in Britain.

The random community testing is key to getting an idea of the scale of infections in the community at large. The critical ratio called reproduction ratio tell one if the virus is under control and how lockdowns can be lifted. For Britain this 0.7 estimated by Imperial College. It has a 2 week lag. 1.0 or close to 1.0 is not good. Germany after being at about 0.7 has moved up to 1.0 with 2 week lag in information says the Robert Koch Institute. This means a lot of work ahead, it won't be easy.

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President Macron announces a curfew from 9.00 pm to 6.00 am in Paris and eight other metropolitan regions of France covering about a third of the population. The cities are in addition to Paris region, Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier, Saint Etienne, Rouen, Toulouse.  Macron said "we have to act now." The president called for bringing the daily cases which have reached a high of 27,000 by October 14 to about 3000 or 5000. About 1600 of the 5000 ICU beds in France are now taken for coronavirus cases and the curfew is an effort to keep the numbers from jumping as they did in March  and April 2020. To do this he said: "we won't be leaving the restaurant after 9.00 pm and we won't be partying with friends because we know that that's where the contamination risk is greatest." Macron made it clear that scientists are all in agreement on the pandemic continuing till the summer of 2021. He urged people to limit gatherings at home to 6 people and wear masks.  Financial support will be given to people affected by the curfew in the hospitality industry.  Anyone found outdoors after 9.00 pm will be fined 135 euros and 10 times that for repeat offences.  ...

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Jay Powell at US central bank the Fed says economy is strong and stable in March 2025. He points to low unemployment at 4% and other improvements including in lowering inflation that show the US economy in good shape, in his comments at Congressional hearings.

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Will AI reduce the curiosity that drives the creation of new knowledge and the curiosity for new discoveries that powered science and technology since 1600? Will it affect the human tendency and habit of asking questions, seeking out novel answers that is intrinsically human that AI cannot do? Scientific inventions that led to Europe leading the way and Asia falling behind after 1600 and new inventions taking place for 300 years with old theories discarded and new knowledge created are impossible under an AI arrangement. If AI existed in 1600 few new discoveries would have happened because they involve asking new questions and finding answers to these questions that take many years sometimes a lifetime of discovery and invention. Other weaknesses of AI are for example that it is fast but it cannot think- it is pieces of knowledge pinned together in different ways that come up from billions of pieces of information pieced together. It gives the appearance of thinking if one is not careful to look at it's process diligently. Its main source is using the public knowledge base built by Wikipedia, with other additions piled on top. Wikipedia may be wrong there are biases and tendencies to overlook facts in Wikipedia inherent in any knowledge exercise. These are then transferred to AI without anyone knowing about it openly, making it more dangerous in that it precludes creative thinking and finding solutions that never existed before to problems or questions, which can only be done by the human mind through its curiosity and stubborn dogged desire to find solutions to a problem.  ...

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Vernon Jordan points out the problems with media and new tech and the loss of quality journalism. He says this has damaged the political process in the U.S. and Europe by spreading rumor as facts, and not providing reliable information, with news and entertainment not being separated. The failure to educate people he says, risks in Jefferson's words the "perversion of power into tyranny."

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DJT action to add another 50% tariff on China by Wednesday April 9, 2025 if it does not withdraw it's retaliatory tariff by Tuesday April 8.

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It is one of the great twists of history that a dedicated Indian Civil Service Joint Secretary, follower of Mohandas Gandhi,  at a time of transformation through education of India's Madras State in 1954-63 under visionary chief minister K Kamaraj, has shaped the life and thinking of his grand daughter Kamala Harris in profound ways. Gopalan had seen and been part of the huge transformation in India wrought by Gandhi in the 1930's and 1940's. Pictures of Shyamala Gopalan with her parents P. V. and  Rajam Gopalan, and her two daughters Kamala and Maya, shown in the NYT. Kamala Harris was the first child of Shyamala who came to the US from Madras state as a young graduate student in 1954, in one of the first batches of students coming from independent India to the US.  Madras, now Tamilnadu, was being led by one of its most far sighted leaders K. Kamaraj who was chief minister from 1954 to 1963. It was Kamaraj who set up the free school lunch program in Madras state and helped bring literacy to the state and a strong educational system that would support economic development. This is important because Kamala draws her strength from her mother and her mother draws strength from her father P.V. Gopalan, a Indian civil servant in the visionary Kamaraj government in Madras state. Kamala spent time with her grandfather on visits to India which have shaped the way she thinks and her view of life. P.V Gopalan was Joint Secretary Government of India Ministry of Labour, Employment and Rehabilitation, and was sent to Zambia as Director of Relief Measures and Refugees to handle an exodus of refugees from Southern Rhodesia to Zambia. The two experiences as Joint Secretary, and as Director in Zambia, during the period when Kamaraj led Madras State were profound life changing experiences for this young civil servant who shared his understanding of Asia and Africa with his granddaughter in profound ways shaping her views on life, and what it means to be a good Civil Servant in public service to the people. Passing on to a new generation the ideas of public service of Mohandas Gandhi that P.V. Gopalan had witnessed at close range in his lifetime. ...

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Prime minister Theresa May of Britain announces her plan to spend an additional 20 billion pounds a year on the National Health Service. Over five years the commitment is for an additional 70 billion pounds. By 2023 this will bring the UK to the point where it is spending the same proportion on health care as France. This also fulfills a promise made by the pro Brexit campaign. May says some of this would come from higher taxes, and 9 billion pounds that the UK contributes to the European Union each year would go to pay for the additional funds to the NHS. The 2017 British election with Labor winning 40% of the vote has affirmed the shift in public sentiment to greater commitment of funds for health and education. Poorer communities in Britain that were left behind tended to vote for Brexit, with a large gap widening between London and the rest of the country. Higher commitment to NHS is part of the shift in perception that the needs of health, education and underserved communities are the new priorities. ...

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The U.S. Labor Department report shows 156,000 jobs added in September 2016. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, because of the increase in the total pool of workers, The labor force increased by 3 million workers over the first 9 months of 2016. The labor force participation rate was up by half a percentage point to 62.9% for the year 2016, as it drew more workers who were earlier discouraged to look for work. Wages grew by 2.6% over the year.