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Chavez and the changes underway in Latin America that required economies to be part of the global economy to grow and prosper. In addition Brazil, Mexico and other countries in Latin America have added social programs and benefitted from a global economy and exports to enlarge the middle class and improve conditions of the working class and poor. This has made a social program type economy financed almost entirely through oil exports less relevant and likely to fall behind in today's world. Venezuelans now want to connect back with the global economy and things to return to normal as in the neighboring countries. A lot is changing in Latin America including the demographics with fewer children, access to education and social benefits and the benefits of technology, and no country can remain isolated for long.

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Haruhiko Kuroda, 68 years old, a senior finance ministry expert who ran the ministry's currency policy as vice finance minister for 4 years in the early 2000's, is prime minister Abe's nominee for central bank chief. He lectured at Hitoshibashi University for two years before becoming the head of the Asian Development Bank. His book "Success and Failure in Fiscal and Monetary Policy," is critical of the Bank of Japan for mistakes in being first too accomodative in monetary policy to set up the 1987 crash, and then tightening too quickly leading to the deflation and recessions of the last two decades. By choosing an expert with a long experience in the field of monetary policy and a vigorous advocate of getting things right to shake off the deflationary trends, Abe is sending a strong signal to financial markets. Kuroda says he is looking at a shorter time frame to achieve a 2% target for inflation- about two years. In essence Kuroda is taking a page from the policy book of a small group of MIT trained economists, Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve, Draghi at the European Central Bank, and Mervyn King at the Bank of England to boost domestic economies in the context of increasing global growth. The yen weakened to 94.77 to the dollar on Feb 25, 2013, after the announcement. Abe's nominee for one of two deputy governor appointments is Kikuo Iwata, a 70 year old economist who was also critical of Bank of Japan monetary policy since the 1990's. The Abe administration has also carefully communicated this message. Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. Abe said Japan's goal was to increase exports, but at the same time it will increase imports which should benefit the U.S., China, India and other countries. He described a recovery in Middle America from the Dakotas to the Carolinas and sees something like this happening also in Japan. Even the appeals to nationalist sentiment are also coupled with the message to China and S. Korea of not climbing up the escalation ladder and seeking good relations to promote mutually beneficial development. Abe's focus is on building the U.S.- Japan relationship....

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WSJ reporters tell the story of Chuck Hagel of Nebraska from his early days in Vietnam, a cellphone business venture, Senator during the Iraq war, gradual shift to opposing the Iraq war, serving on the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee with Senator Obama, and the bond established with Obama over American involvement in the Middle East.

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Chuck Hagel answers questions in the U.S. Senate about his views on the Iraq and Afghanistan surge, on sanctions against Iran, and nuclear disarmament. Hagel says the U.S. must engage not retreat in the world, and discussed his world view without getting drawn into details about policy issues. He faces a difficult nomination for U.S. Defense Secretary with skepticism from Republicans. Hagel opposed both surges and says the right approach is bilateral disarmament for nuclear weapons.

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Efforts to protect rights of workers with a new labor. Criticism is that it does little to protect the rights of migrant workers from the rural areas in the huge wave of urbanization that is going on in China and India as well, and does little where enforcement is weak. On the other hand cases like that of Huawei a Chinese telecom maker are attracting notice as they violate the laws protections for workers with more than ten years of employment who get job security and companies have to inform the union before firing employees. Huawei asked 7000 employees with more than 10 years of experience to resign before being hired for short term positions.

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The really small cars like the HOnda FIt and the Toyota Yaris and the GM Aveo are piling up on dealer lots as the price of gasoline drops to $2 a gallon from last summer's $4 a gallon. At February end 2009 Honda had 22191 Fits on dealer lots enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, and Toyota had enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. Chrysler has a 205 day supply of the Dodge Caliber, and GM 427 days of Aveo cars. Honda Civics are also piling up. Price shifts and shifts in consumer attention and buying behaviour makes it difficult to plan ahead. The American carmakers have shifted plants to smaller and midsize cars after seeing the disastrous drop in the sales of larger vehicles in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Now government policy is to mandate fuel efficiency standards, there is talk of agasoline tax, and even the current numbers shows ashift away from the SUV's and larger vehicles of the past. Ford's sales analyst Pipas says that over the 5 months ending February 2009 sales of small cars totaled 718,000. This was down 28% over the same period in 2008, but small cars grew to 18.4% of the total market, up 2.1 points from the year earlier period. Part of this is that overall the market has declined much more than 28%. This also shows that policy in an industry-government partnership will have to show the way that is best for the US, to ensure that oil prices don't go up the way they did, when consumption at the pump was excesssive and fuel standards lax. This should also be done in a partnership with other countries like China and India to ensure that technologies are available worldwide to reduce fuel consumption and promote fuel efficiency, as keeping consumption per passenger for each mile travelled as low as possible will take pressure off the oil price. It would make automobile transportation feasible for a rapidly urbanizing Asia, and by reducing the pressure on price that urbanization and motorization in Asia would bring, help moderate oil prices for western countries. ...

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A discussion on the drying up of capital available to the financial institutions for deleveraging, and the way deveraging puts even more pressure on home prices and lower consumer spending also puts pressure on housing prices by delaying a housing recovery. And the pros and cons of letting Lehman Brothers fail. Sovereign wealth funds are losing money on their investments as stock prices of these firms fall, and their investments are worth much less, resulting in criticism at home. Korean economy has problems of its own so regulators in Korea were not eager to support state owned Korea Development Bank taking a large stake in Lehman. When Mr Fuld, Lehman's CEO stood out for a better deal they may have flagged their concerns to KDB negotiators. And middle eastern sovereign funds are looking for better opportunities in other parts of the world like India, Asia or closer to home. Private Equity funds which have about $450 billion are not able to increase stakes above 25% because of regulations that make them bank holding companies subject to regulators when they go above that limit. Private equity funds like Blackstone and Carlyle are asking for these restrictions to be lifted to be able to invest more in capital starved financial institutions. Meanwhile with share prices plummeting with Lehman losing 90% of its share price it will be harder to raise capital. Merrill lost 17% of its share price in one day so it affects other institutions. Regarding the pros and cons of letting a firm fail the Fed's and Treasury's fear is that markets today are bound together by complex financial instrments like credit default swaps and certain money market instruments that firms and regulators have limited experience handling in a crisis and the concern is that letting a firm fail might have ripple effects. Regulators are addressing the clearing and settling of these instruments but still need time to finish. And there is no formal procedure for disposing off the assets of an investment bank if it fails. And behind all this is the realization as Lawrence Meyer, a former Fed governor, who is vice Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors LLC puts it : "There's no trend of improvement. It's not improving even slowly." ...

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PM Modi visits Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad and inaugurates the $145 million Sabarmati Ashram renovation project. In June 1917 Mohandas Gandhi bought land on the banks of the Sabarmati river to build the Ashram. It was the central location for Gandhiji's struggle with the British for Hind Swaraj, independence from Britain. The ideas in Gandhi's Hind Swaraj written in 1910 during the struggle for South African workers was implemented from here including the Satyagraha struggles, negotiations with the British Raj, Dandi march to the sea in April 1930 to protest the tax on salt. It was originally on 120 acres which by 2020 were reduced to 5 acres. The new project will expand the Ashram to 57 acres into a major worldwide center for learning about Gandhi's life and ideas and the role for gaining Bharat Swaraj or freedom and its role in Bharat's future for a new generation of youth. Leaders including Sardar Vallahbhai Patel and Narendra Modi look to Gandhiji's ideas for inspiration and guidance in the everyday administration of the country. Gandhi's ideas anticipate not just the aspirations for freedom with taking responsibility for one's own actions, but also the movements for respecting nature through climate change action, uplifting of rural areas, and the improvement of the living conditions of working people and families everywhere in the world. The Ashram exhibition shows documents including letters to the Viceroy in the 1920's showing the budget for the Empire in India and asking why so much went to defense and military and so little to uplifting the lives of the people, in education, health and infrastructure. Having seen it at the Ashram one could say such a direct letter to the head of a large nation, as the Viceroy in India was then is unimaginable today. In some ways emails and electronic communication have made contact with officials and government less not more and created a seemingly insurmountable gap today. ...

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It is not clear how China's president Jinping's support for the idea of "China Dream," -of China as a world power on a level with the U.S.- should be interpreted. China will increase its defense budget and continue its efforts to be the dominant power in its region, even as the U.S. and Japan begin to build closer ties in the Pacific. Is it simply a new assertiveness for its rights in relation to territorial disputes with Japan, and a continuation of a policy of peaceful development of earlier leaders. The move could also be an effort to build close ties with the military as the new leadership of Jinping-Keqiang prepares to make major changes in the economy. A speech in Dec. 2012 to Communist party officials in Guangdong province by Jinping, on how the lack of unity with the military led to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, could throw light on the thinking. In a few days an old party was gone, as he put it. This also follows the Bo Xilai episode which involved contacts with the military and the risks of division in the military and political leadership....

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The slowing growth in China is reducing growth and depreciating the currencies of iron ore producing countries Brazil and Australia. China makes 50% of the world's steel and imports 1.2 billion tons of iron ore traded annually. Australia exports 80% of its iron ore to China valued at $67 billion in 2013. Brazil sends 50% of production to China. For the first time in 15 years China's steel use declined 0.3% to 500 million tons in the Jan-Aug. 2014 period. The mining companies have invested heavily in ports and railroads for expanded production. BHP CEO Mackenzie says the strategy is to maximize production because reducing production increases costs on a unit basis. The result is a decline in price from $135 a ton at the beginning of 2014 to $69.80 on Nov. 28, 2014. Prices could decline to the $50 range in 2015, according to Citigroup analysts, because of an estimated iron ore surplus of 300 million tons by 2018. As China expands recycling of older cars and washing machines to produce steel this will reduce future iron ore demand in China. JP Morgan forecast for Australia reduces GDP growth to 2.8% from 3.3% for 2015, and Brazil reduced its forecast for 2015 to 0.9% from 1.8%....

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Economists predict sluggish economic growth in 2013.

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After years of negotiations Russia and China reached agreement on a memorandum that provides deliveries by Gazprom of 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas to China by 2018, under a 30 year supply deal. The pipeline to deliver gas to China is part of a $50 billion project for a pipeline that takes gas to Vladivostock for liquefaction. A spur from that pipeline would take gas to China. This would make China the largest importer of natural gas from Russia. In 2012 Germany imported 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, followed by other large importers Ukraine, Turkey, Belarus and Italy. A new agreement between China and Russia's state owned oil company, Rosneft, doubles the oil imports to 31 million metric tons a year under a 25 year deal. The current level of imports is 15 million tons set by a deal in 2009. The lower price of natural gas going to Europe helped the two countries bridge differences over price. China's National Petroleum Corporation will partner with Rosneft for exploration in new oil fields in the Russian Arctic region....

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An international arbitration panel gives Exxon $908 million for oil assets nationalized by Venezuela in 2007. This is much lower than the $7 billion claimed by Exxon. Exxon invested $750 million in its Cerro Negro oil operations in Venezuela. The operations had an estimated value of $2 billion and are located in the heavy crude oil region of Orinoco. Venezuelan oil company PdVSA showed net profit of $4 billion in the first half of 2011. Another case is pending for Conoco-Phillips.

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The World Bank's Jim Yong Kim leads an effort to bring infrastructure development to war torn regions, including $1 billion in investment in the war torn Democratic Republic of the Congo. This would help build hydroelectric power plants, roads and agricultural infrastructure, especially along the border with Uganda and Rwanda. This is where Kim sees the World Bank making the greatest difference. Kim is unique because he brings a background in anthropology and medicine, compared to the background in politics and finance of previous World Bank presidents. He increased committments to sub-Saharan Africa to about $14 billion in the current fiscal year ending June 2013, from $12.2 billion in 2012. This is his first year at the World Bank.

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How the IMF conditionality has changed in the 2009 global economic crisis. The IMF head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France, is aware how sensitive nations around the world have become to the word IMF. So much so that it has even suggested removing the word IMF from loans to get takers. The IMF conditons worsened the S. Korean financial crisis in 1998. See link to this. This time Kahn has advocated that the developed countries of Europe and the USA increase stimulus spending to 2% of GDP.And there are fewer calls for cutting spending in developing countries offered help by the IMF. Pakistan was asked to increase interest rates by 3% but actually increased them by 2% to fight inflation. But to get some idea how the IMF is viewed with suspicion and hostility in many countries one has to listen to comments made. The move for Pakistan was so unpopular in 2008 that Mohsin Khan a top IMF official says he met with agroup of generals to get their backing. Some IMF officials insistend on a 10% rate increase. Something like that would have led to riots in Pakistani cities. IMF loaned Pakistan $7.6 billion. When S. Korea said no to the IMF credit line, Lee Hyoung-ryoul, a Korean Finance Ministry official said that S. Koreans tremble and financial markets turn sensitive whenever they hear the word "IMF." This time Brazil, S. Korea and Mexico, were offered condition free credit lines. But it has found no takers from these three conuntries, so badly is the IMF viewed in developing countries. Even though it appears that Kahn, in the small club of western nation's officials and staff that form the governing body of the IMF, is trying to give the IMF a new image, its just so bad and the views of the old timers at the IMF on spending or interest rates so contrary to the needs of people in the developed and developing countries, that a new generation of people in finance and economics will be needed before real change is established. ...

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Fears that another crisis like that of 2008 could emerge with asset bubbles in China and other countries. Also fears that policies of austerity in southern Europe and the UK, combined with Germany's tight control on spending, could lead Europe to years of slow growth or stagnation. It is a tricky situation especially in Europe, trying to avoid a Greece type situation, and at the same time not cutting spending to the point where it would lead to stagnation. Criticism of the German government's policy to cut spending and fears that the European Central Bank might follow Germany's policy to focus purely on the deficit. Lower US bond yields give the US some room for dealing with the deficit. The need for swift action in China to move the economy towards domestic consumption, and let the yuan strengthen so that China can absorb more of the world's exports.

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A former cricketer who helped Pakistan win the World Cup, is elected prime minister of Pakistan, His party leads in the 2018 elections with 120 seats, the party of Mr. Sharif with its base in the Punjab wins 60 seats, and the party of the Bhuttos with its base in Sind province wins 40 seats. Imran Khan has the support of the military in Pakistan.

Mr. Sharif was ousted as prime minister before the election on corruption charges first revealed in the Panama Papers. 

Pakistan faces challenges of managing its economic relationship with China with debt repayments to China for infrastructure projects leading to a planned IMF bailout in 2019. The relationship with India remains strained over Kashmir, and leads to a situation in which the military runs external affairs of the country. The economic and political issues need to be untangled so that Pakistan and the rest of South Asia can divert resources from defense to economic development.