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China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.

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Hamburg is the key city in Germany's trade with China. About half of $200 billion in trade between Germany and China passes through the port of Hamburg. The South China Morning Post looks at the dilemma in Hamburg over relations with China in the post Merkel era. Merkel maintained strong and close ties with China signing an agreement with China her last year in office. This was when Mr. Trump was US president. Since then president Biden has changed US policy towards Europe. The South China Morning Post points out that The Greens and the FDP key partners of Scholz in a new coalition government, are critical of Merkel's policy towards China in its overall relationship with the US and the rest of the world. Scholz was mayor of Hamburg, and a partner in Merkel's coalition government in which he was vice chancellor. Scholz has talked very little on what the new German policy would be. China seeks to maintain its economic ties in the next few years with Germany while reducing its dependence on other countries under Xi Jinping's new vision for China that seeks to depend less on trade and real estate for its economy and growth. Yet the pace of change has accelerated during the pandemic with a new global supply chain emerging from the chaotic years of 2020-2021. US policy under president Biden is similar to policies under Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930's during the economic and political crises, and look to be setting a new path to the future for the rest of the world. ...

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Home prices are surging in Australia in 2015, with home prices in Sydney up about 39% since June 2012, according to CoreLogic RP Data. As a multiple of annual income home prices in Sydney are at 9.8, Melbourne 8.7, and Wollongong near Sydney 7.5, compared to 6.1 for New York and 8.5 for London, according to a 2015 affordability survey by Demographia. Australia's surging home prices are happening just as the mining boom that powered its economy is winding down and unemployment is up to 6.1%. Interest rates are down to 2.25%, and low interest rates with speculative purchases are likely to fuel the market up further, say experts. About 40% of home loans approved in Feb. 2015 were to investors, increasing from 31% in 2009, according to official data. According to Australia's Reserve Bank the wealthiest 40% of the population have 75% of the debt. This surge when the economy is feeling the effects of the slowdown in China, and the rest of the world is cutting down on debt, puts Australia in uncertain territory....

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A former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors during 2010-2011 offers his reflections on the quantitative easing policies of Fed chairman Bernanke. He points out that the Fed was simply offsetting the effects of tight credit channels when it employed QE to prevent this from damaging the economy at a sensitive time. Inflation would have increased as critics say, only if the Fed did not reverse its policy with tapering as it is doing now. Bernanke offers a similiar assessment and says Fed critics refuse to look at todays inflation numbers which are below 2% for 2013- and also below 2% for 2012.

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Britain leaves the European Union on January 31, 2020, almost half a century after it joined the EU. There is a transition period till December 31, 2020 to work out the trading arrangements with the EU. Britain is asking for a trade deal similar to that which Canada signed with the EU recently. Boris Johnson says he would accept a "off-the-shelf" model first proposed by the EU negotiator Michael Barnier. 

The Canada model would mean an almost tariffs free trading arrangement which would include border checks, and which would exclude Britain's large services sector. This would be the ideal arrangement in the British view. The impact as estimated by the British Treasury is for the negative impact on the British economy to be minimal, for the British economy to be about 4.9% smaller over 15 years compared to having not left the EU. This might be offset by trade gains with trade deals made with other countries such as the U.S. and Japan.

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Peugeot plans to shut down its plant at Aulnay-sous-Bois near Paris in 2014. About 3000 jobs will be lost at the plant. In all Peugeot plans to cut 8500 jobs, about 8% of its workforce in France. Peugeot says the pace of losses is unsustainable, with Peugeot losing 200 million euros in cash each month, putting the entire enterprise in peril. This also raises more questions about France's competitiveness as 400,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the last ten years according to government data. Peugeot is seeing declining sales because of slowing sales in southern Europe, a critical market for Peugeot. Overall capacity utilization for Peugeot dropped from 86% in 2011 to an average of 76% in the second half of 2012, with sharper declines in the small car segment on which the company has focussed. The Aulnay plant produced 300,000 cars 2007, by 2011 this came down to 135,000 cars. Peugeots strategy of making smaller economy style cars with higher French labor costs presents a challenge say analysts, and its slower move into Asian markets has not given it the advantage enjoyed by German manufacturer VW. In addition to the 3000 jobs lost at Aulnay, Peugeot plans to cut 1400 jobs at its Brittany plant in Rennes, and 3600 corporate jobs. To assure unions the company will build a new car at the Rennes plant in 2016, and could move 1500 jobs from Aulnay to another plant near Paris....

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, says Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the summer of 2012 will be good for the global economy and for the U.S. It will increase U.S. exports to Russia from the low level of 1% of U.S. global exports. It will also set the right tone for improving U.S.-Russia relations and improving cooperation on global issues. She calls for Congress to change the Jackson-Vanik amendment and setting up normal trading relations between the U.S. and Russia. It is a smart investment in trade with Russia,and also a way to help Russia diversify its economy, setup an open political system and put its world trading relationships on a more transparent basis with clear tariff rates.

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The Argentina 2023 elections results show Sergio Massa, the current Economy Minister has 36% of the vote, and Javier Milei with 30%, and 24% for Patricia Bulrich a former security minister. The election rules require a candidate to get 45% of the vote or result in a runoff between the two leading candidates. Massa apologized for mistakes made by his administration. Milei calls for cutting budget for social welfare in a country suffering from steep 140% inflation and for abolition of the central bank, dollarizing the economy when it has $44 billion debt and a IMF program, ideas seen as extreme and risky. It is a sign of how the nation of 46 million is reaching for extreme steps as a result of failing in the fight against inflation and runaway spending.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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Critical to move forward in making investments for growth in the Indian economy are the government debt to GDP ratio and GST revenue collections. FInance minister Sitharaman tells parliament that the government debt to GDP ratio is 56.2 % and considerably less than many countries of the leading economies in Europe and the US, less than France and the US, Canada which are in triple digits. GST collections are at 1.49 lakh crores for July 2022, the second highest in history. Inflation is at 7% or below that.  Non performing assets of commercial banks are at 5.9%. She said about 4000 banks in China were reportedly on verge of being bankrupt by comparison and China has huge debt problem for local government. Much of the hard work of the government is makingit possible to set the conditions such as these for basic macroeconomic factors to be put in place for the next stage in India's journey to fulfill the aspirations of its people for a modern and technologically advanced economy with opportunity for all. ...

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Competing oligopolies or Competition? American capitalism in reality is a mix of both. Government's role in American economy shifting from higher in the Great Depression to low in Globalization and now back to supporting business to compete with China/India/Germany's Subsidized Capitalism. This WSJ piece that take a circle around the bases for a home run is in reality not a true reflection of America's management of it's economy over the last 200 years since 1825. There is a high degree of individualism, yes because it is a land that is forever expanding on sparsely populated Indian territory in the west starting under Jefferson and Washington at the Ohio/Pennsylvania frontier. By 1900 there is the emergence of the great corporations and monopolies, oligopolies with TR's busting of monopolies by 1920, and much of that structure is still there in 2025, with some obsolescence for changing technology. Oligopolies in information technologies simply absorb the small companies, and government is itself run by powerful lobbying as in the pharma industry to the sheer and alarming detriment of all Americans. ...

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With a win in the Kingswood byelection, a Tory stronghold, Britain's Labor party is now seeing a real shift of voter sentiment for a large majority in parliament in the coming general election. Britain entered a recession in Feb 2024 and the Conservatives have no solutions for the economy after many years in power, and 4 prime ministers in a constant change of leadership. Britain also lacks the resources that make it possible to have the kind of investment and scale of investment in the US that president Biden has launched.

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A decline in military spending and exports offset growth in residential investment and investment in equipment and software to lead to a 0.1% contraction in the U.S. economy for the 4th quarter of 2012. This reflected a decline in military spending of 22.2%. GDP growth declined from 3.1% in the 3rd quarter to negative 0.1%. The U.S. GDP growth increased from 1.8% for 2011 to 2.2% in 2012.

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After the German election the next election in France in 2022 will provide new direction for Europe. As in Germany with Olaf Scolz of the Social Democrats, in France an alternative is emerging with Xavier Bertrand of the Les Republicains. Like Scholz Bertrand was Labor Minister working to tackle difficult problems of increasing employment in the French economy going back a decade. In recent elections the party French president Emmanuel Macron created as a member of Francois Hollande's government has floundered. Macron hastily put together the En Marche in Amiens on April 16, 2017, when he was minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in the government of president Hollande. During the eight year period in which the centre right Christian Democrats CDU and center left Social Democrats SPD had ruled in a coalition government in Germany some version of centrist politics and government had also prevailed in France. After the Sarkozy years 2007-2012 under the centre right Les Republicains party  France turning to the centre left Socialists under Francois Hollande. As a young minister 39 years Macron lacked experience, and the initial enthusiasm that helped him win the 2017 presidential election is now missing. As in Germany voters are looking for change not just in slogans but in substance in a new Trans Atlantic partnership of US, Germany and France to tackle the may problems that were neglected in the last two decades of changing administrations in US and France and the Merkel administration in Germany- problems of social cohesion, of income inequality, division of country into rural and urban, eastern and western in Germany, southern and northern in the US, neglect of infrastructure, and failure to invest in the future.  France is now turning to the Les Republicains party in recent elections, and away from Le Pen's far right party and Macron's party.  Both Macron and Le Pen did very poorly in recent regional elections. This report in FR24 points out that the candidate for the Les Republicains party will be chosen at a convention, and not at a primary as happened in 2017 leading to the elimination of former Republicains president Nicholas Sarkozy. The president of the Haute France regional council Xavier Bertrand is the leading candidate from the regional election results. Bertrand was Sarkozy's minister of Labor and Solidarity from 2007 to 2009, and Minister of Labor, Employment and Health in 2009. Today Olaf Scholz, winner of the German elections in September 2021 was also Minister of Labor- in the Social Democrats/ Greens government under Gerhard Schroeder 1998 to 2005. Voters now realize that it is important to value experience, stability, combined with humility and a determination to get things done, compared to charismatic leaders with little to show in results, and tangible improvements in the quality of life, in national renewal.      ...

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After two quarters of no growth the German economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. The Constitutional Court ruled that German government's diverting $60 billion of unused pandemic funds to its climate and transformation fund was unconstitutional. If cuts are made in public spending as a result it could push Germany into a recession, says IMK Institute.

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Higher inflation and interest rates at 2.2% are having a profound effect on the Japanese economy. Japan is starting a new era of positive interest rates with the first interest rate increase in 17 years this week. Pay raises reached an average of 5.28% in 2023, according to the Japan Trade Union Confederation where the highest for the previous decade was 2.4%. PM Kishida has pursued a course that encourages workers to get needed pay raises. It will affect everything from US mortgages to how much money stays at home and is invested in Japan. Japan holds $4.2 trillion in foreign investment holdings of which $1.1 trillion is in US Treasury bonds. As the differential with US interest rates decreases - varying from 1.5% to 3%- it will increase investment in the Japanese economy and in manufacturing at home. Japan has seen low wages and a hollowing out of its manufacturing sector similar to the US creating a sense of less hope for the future. This shift to investing in Japan is a change for reasons of supply chain reliability and increasing confidence of workers and worker's families in Japan. ...

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The UK Office for National Statistics shows Britain's GDP declined by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2011, compared to the prior quarter. The figures showed a drop in business investment. Polls by ComRes, show 51% of people in Britain see the government austerity cuts as having an adverse effect on the economy, with cuts being larger and coming too quickly.

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The unemployment rate of 5.9% in the US in June 2021 is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. It is also different in other ways that are not so apparent. There are 9 million Americans looking for jobs. They are also looking for jobs outside industries that were hit hard during the pandemic, or pursuing better jobs with less commute and more remote work, and jobs outside of warehousing which requires less of the skills and training they have or in remote locations far from where they live. Economists like to use terms such as "mismatch" to describe this as in this report in WSJ. This does not bring home to us the enormous human toll of the pandemic. A recent survey of US workers for April by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 31% of people do not want to return to their old jobs up from 20% in July 2020. One in three from one in five last year are looking for something different than the the jobs that were hit hard in each successive wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Other surveys have found that 70% of workers who last worked for the leisure and hospitality industries are looking for something in a different industry. Leisure and hospitality that includes restaurants and hotels, airports, were hammered in this pandemic. And 55% of job applicants in one survey were found to be looking for remote work. Economists also see the macroeconomy in terms of supply and demand for labor, in terms of interest rates with low interest rates as a way to tackle unemployment, yet this has limited value in real life situations in the economy when it is affected by a number of factors, including some unusual factors such as the pandemic and man made events such as the global financial crisis of 2009 from banking missteps. The federal government has to take steps of its own to support Americans as these changes take place in the economic situation and Americans are in need of help with adjustments. ...

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The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute said the average fuel economy of all new passenger vehicles purchased in January 2012 was 23 miles per gallon, up 0.8 or 4% from December 2011. This includes cars, light trucks, minivans, and SUV's. Professors Sivak and Schoettle of the Institute also released a U.S. Eco-Driving Index, or EDI, which estimates average monthly emissions of individual U.S. drivers for Nov. 2011 at 0.86- this is down 14% from October 2007. The need to reduce reliance on imported oil for the U.S., Europe, China and India, the high price of oil, and the need to reduce automobile emissions to improve air quality, make improvements in average fuel economy and emissions per driver absolutely critical.

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Pat McFadden is Minister for Inter-Governmental Relations. He says Keir Starmer wants to see migration numbers fall after it was shown that net migration to Britain was 906,000 in 2023. The number of migrants crossing the Channel is reported to reach 20,000 since Keir Starmer became prime minister on July 5, 2024, a period of 5 months. This shows Labour under Starmer is serious about migration and appalled at Conservative administrations not walking the talk. Caps placed under David Cameron to cap at tens of thousands were not followed. "Targets haven’t worked very well. We’ve got things we were saying about this in terms of getting net migration down. I don’t say targets don’t work in any circumstance but numerical targets on migration have not had a happy history in recent years." “But we do want legal migration to come down, we do want to train more of our own workers, we do want to get more people off welfare and into work.” The ebbs and flows of the economy and Britain's needs, culture and integration, always legal migration- this is policy for Britain under Keir Starmer and Labour. ...

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After the failure of 3 prime ministers selected by president Macron to form a functioning government and pass the Budget in 2025, it looks increasingly apparent that Macron has failed as president in 2025. He has hung on to power through one protest after another, yet has failed to bring together people with a plan to improve the living standards of the French people from all sectors and parts of society, including the lower income groups and rural parts of the country. France has become more fractured politically than ever under Macron, with the result that no one or two parties can form a viable government with enough support in parliament. Macron started out as Minister for the Economy under Socialist president Hollande, but never really supported the Socialist party, preferring to branch out on his own seizing a political opportunity to call all other parties part of the old system with a hastily put together Movement of his own. It has managed to win and hold power for nearly a decade for lack of better alternatives, yet today it is clear that this Movement did not have the power that comes from a genuine effort for the improvement of the lives of the people of France from all parts of society and all income groups, and both urban and rural parts of France. It is a missed opportunity for France and a failure of a president who failed to grasp the needs of France and of the French people. It has pitted different sectors and ideas, rural and urban, parts from neglected industrial development and thriving regions, against each other instead of pulling together the country into a coherent whole for improving the lives of the people. Tactical moves replaced a larger sense of strategy and purpose, and personal power replacing the interest of the nation as a whole for all parts of the country. ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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NITI Aayog does much of the development planning for India. It's CEO Parmeswaran Iyer, says about one third of the population of 1.2 billion people has reached the middle class. The poverty level has dropped to about 16% of the population. He describes the steps taken to achieve this. First inflation control by keeping inflation below 6%- it was 5.7% in December 2022. The decline of loan rates for education, buying home and appliances to about 8%. Second the pioneering action of One Nation One Tax under GST that has saved Rs 18,000 lakh crore or Rs 12000 per household annual saving. To create small micro business in a country the size of India with a large informal economy action was taken. 120 million of 380 million beneficiaries are from the  middle class for PM Mudra Yojana who received Rs 7 trillion in collateral free loans. This is designed to provide non farm small loans of 10 lakh rupees (about $8000) to micro unit enterprises at the bottom of the development pyramid to encourage an entrepreneurial culture and micro enterprises. Non Performing assets (bad loans) or NPA were reduced from 11.1% of the banking system to 5.8% in 2022. This is critical to support future growth as banks that well capitalized can make the loans needed to support growth. In health and education  a large network of new universities and medical colleges, hospitals is being built. The Ayushman Yojana provides health screening to millions of people and aid is channeled to people for low cost generic medicines. It is the size of these efforts that is making the difference in the lives of ordinary people. For technological advancement the government has moved quickly on digitalization, and 5G implementation to be done by 2024. ...

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Portugal's foreign minister, Paulo Portas, resigns in protest against continuity of austerity measures signalled by the selection of Ms. Albuquerque as the new finance minister. Portas's party is part of the coalition of centre right parties in the administration of prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Cuts in public employee pay and spending on health and education, income and sales tax increases, have cut the deficit to 6.4% of GDP by 2013 from about 10% in 2010. The cost of this is an economy that is shrinking more than expected- by 4.8% in 2011 and 2012, and an additional 2.3% in 2013. Unemployment exceeds 17% in 2013. The loan terms negotiated for the 78 billion euro bailout with the IMF and E.U. in 2010, were renegotiated so that the 3% of GDP target for the deficit for 2013 was relaxed to 5.5%. Portas's party and other leaders are calling for a further renegotiation to take into account the economic conditions in Portugal and boost growth. Portas's party opposed the effort to cut labor costs of companies with a large increase in worker social security contributions, a measure seen as counterproductive even by business leaders that was later dropped. In financial markets the 10 year Portugal bond yield increased 0.22% to 6.615%....

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Factors that point to deceleration, stabilization followed by reacceleration in the U.S. stock market include growth in hiring, moderate P/E ratios, a recovery in Japan after the earthquake, and stronger corporate balance sheets. Uncertainty comes in three areas, a crisis in Greece or Portugal, slowing growth in China with rising inflation, and a sharp slowdown in U.S. growth after the end of the Fed's monetary easing. Current estimates are for 2.9% growth in the U.S. economy for 2011.