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Casey describes the crucial policy errors in Brazil with over spending and lack of transparency in the years leading to the crisis in 2014-2015. Brazil raised interest rates half a percentage point in May 2015 to 13.25%. Inflation was at 8.13% in Brazil in March 2015. Brazilian companies have large dollar denominated debt accumulated during the boom years which needs to be refinanced as its currency the real declines. With current policies economic growth is likely to continue at 0-1%. Russia made policy errors with the departure of Kudrin as finance minister for Putin's second term as president. Policies to attract foreign investment, controlling military expenditures, and continuing growth were reversed as Russia took positions on Ukraine that led to western sanctions, capital outflows, and a sharp decline in the ruble. By May 2015 the ruble and oil prices had recovered from lows, but the ruble was still 35% below the level in June 2014, and the oil prices were still only two thirds of the peak in 2014. Russia sees the decline in the ruble as a way to reduce imports and increase import substitution for many products. The economy is weakened by high inflation- inflation was 6.9% in March 2014, going up to 16.9% in March 2015. In May 2015 Russia lowered the target repo rate by 1.5 percentage points to 12%. Russia faces stagflation- high unemployment with low GDP growth, and high inflation....

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Mitsui, Mitsbishi of Japan and Shell of the UK are companies with large stakes in LNG projects in Russia. These stakes have continued through the war, with Shell hoping to sell to Chinese companies and no information yet about Japanese plans. Japan has shown no indication of divesting itself of these assets as it pursues its own energy interests during the war in Ukraine. 

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The German government plans to give $8 billion to Uniper in exchange for  a majority stake in Germany's energy company Uniper. Uniper was hit hard when Russia turned off natural gas supplies. It reported a net loss of $12.6 billion for the first half of 2022. The German government will also take a stake in the Finnish company that owns Uniper, Fortum Oyj.

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Ukraine's efforts to repair a power grid damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks as the Ukraine war enters its final stages before a settlement of some sort is reached.

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The U.S. plans to join the EU's WTO complaint over Russia's recycling fee for automobile imports which does not apply to domestically manufactured cars. EU officials say the levy has cut the imports of European automobiles into Russia by 7%. The levy was imposed for five years following Russia's admission into the WTO and is seen as unfairly discriminating against imported cars. Russian automobile sales reached 2,935,000 in 2012, increasing by 11% over 2011. Sales are estimated at 2.8 millon by the AEB trade group for 2013. All ten of the leading models by sales for 2012 were Russian domestically manufactured automobiles. The case goes before the WTO in July 2013.

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Steps the US has taken to not let the war escalate even as it arms Ukraine to be able to defend itself. The goal being to defend Ukraine and seek a settlement as quickly as possible with Russia. Biden, Macron and Scholz have talked to Putin in the last few weeks as the winter war drags on with no one gaining from this war. 

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The Chevy Niva is a $14,000 sports utility vehicle manufactured in the Volga River industrial city of Togliatti in Russia. It is manufactured through a joint venture between Russia's AvtoVaz and GM. It is considered a reliable car and about 500,000 Nivas were sold in the last decade. GM plans a $200 millon investment in a new plant that will increase production to 120,000 Nivas a year by 2015.

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Different perspectives on the Russian intervention in Georgia to support ethnic Russians inside Georgia and the role NATO intervention to support ethnic Albanians inside Serbia win independence in the Kosovo region plays in the Russian views.

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Trade between Russia and Germany was about $100 billion in 2013, or about 3.3% of German exports. About 300,000 jobs depend on exports to Russia, according to Germany's DIHK Chambers of Commerce. A poll released by Der Spiegel on July 27, 2014, shows 52% of Germans now support tough sanctions on Russia, with the mood shifting following the death of 193 Dutch residents on Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. Finance minister Schauble told the Bild newspaper- "Damaging pece and stability would be the biggest risk for the economy."

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By giving its approval to Russia's Nordstream 2 gas pipeline the Biden administration is putting priority on restoring good relations with Germany. Germany had pushed for the Nordstream 2 pipeline in its discussions with the US.

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Steven Press of the Stanford History Department says "buying Greenland is not a new idea."  Actually Denmark sold hubs in India to the British Empire, offered Greenland for sale to US in 1900's,  and US president Harry Truman offered $100 million in 1946 for Greenland because of it's strategic value in the Cold War. Then why are the EU countries sounding indignation. Denmark was a colonial power in India in the 19th century. Denmark was explored in its widest extent by Robert Peary in the 1880's who proved it was an island by reaching it's northernmost side. Peary advocated for Greenland to be part of the US and the Commanders in Chief all agreed in 1946 the island "was completely worthless to Denmark," yet was vital to the United States, to protect its eastern seaboard. DJT is hardly the first to say this even though the Europeans want to excoriate hime for doing so. In fact it was Secretary of State William Seward in 1867 who looked at acquiring Greenland, when he negotiated the purchase of Alaska from the Russian Empire. Alaska is a lot ,a lot better for natives compared to it being under Russia, and this would be true for Greenland than being under Denmark. Denmark's claim was not even accepted till 1921 with Norway disputing it.  Denmark had not explored the northern part of the country when Robert Peary reached it for the US Navy and claimed it for the US inthe 1880's. It can be said that for these reasons Denmark has little reason to be in Greenland except as a colonial power. Its claims are from 1814 Treaty of Kiel with Prussia. Denmark can hardly protect Greenland's vast shoreline with 6 dogsleds, and security less than the New York Police Department, from Russian and Chinese submarines and ships in the Arctic. The native Inuit population of Greenland has little in common with Denmark as a colonial power. About 60,000 Inuit origin native residents, in the whole island, most of them would fit into one or several American bases, Okinawa alone has 80,000 people. Who would have per capita incomes many times what they are today with better living conditions and standards of health and education, security and air transport under the US.    ...

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The pressure on the ruble as it reaches 40 to the dollar by Oct. 2014. The increase in inflation with higher import costs affects the Russian economy.

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Turkey's relations with Turkmen in northern Syria, and opposition to the bombing of this part of Syria by Russian planes is cited as the reason for Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane in November 2015. Prime minister Erdogan stated this by saying: "we strongly condemn attacks focusing on areas inhabited by Bayibucak Turkmen- we have our relatives, our kin there." Following the incident Turkey provided media with footage showing 10 repeated warnings in the space of 5 minutes to the two Russian planes before Turkish F-16's shot down the Russian plane. The area where the plane was shot down is a small part of Turkey that juts into Syria. This part of Turkey is called the Hatay province, with Turkmen in Hatay forming a republic in 1938 breaking away from the French mandate over Syria set up following the first world war. The following year it joined Turkey. Parts of the Turkmen in Hatay are still in Syria and this is the region Russia began bombing 2 months ago, with Turkey opposing the bombing. Russian president Putin's claim that this is part of the bombing of Islamic State positions is refuted by Turkey's prime minister Davotoglu, who says "No one can legitimize attacks on Turkmens in Syria using the pretext of fighting the Islamic State." ...

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Republican majority in the House and large number of seat in the Senate, will make it difficult to get approval of three items for improved Russian-US relations. The items are: an arms control treaty to reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections, a civilian nuclear agreement for greater cooperation, and getting Russia admitted into the World Trade Organization. It might even rupture the reset policy of the Obama administration and stifle progress made so far.

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Large asset management and wealth management investment funds such as Pictet, UBS and Aberdeen, Alliance Bernstein, on how they are managing their investments in Russia during April 2014 following Russian policies in Ukraine. A general wariness from Bernstein and a sense that there is an underestimation of the risk from Aberdeen. It suggests more pressure on the ruble and Russian debt becoming costlier with higher interest rates on bonds required for a higher risk premium.

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Shows how the Republican views on the admission of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, those of Senator McCain and a lobbyist for Georgia, Randy Scheunemann who is McCain's top foreign policy advisor, all play a part in the American view of Russia and Georgia. McCain has a friendship with Saashkavili and made several trips to Georgia, and even nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 in a letter cosigned by Senator Hillary Clinton. There is aslo disagreement among the Republican foreign policy advisors about Russia and about Georgia.

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With a low voter turnout estimated at 25% the United Russia Party which supports President Putin wins regional elections in Russia.

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Oil cuts of 2 million barrels a day or 2% of global oil production by OPEC Plus will lead to oil prices surging back up to levels seen earlier this year.  Weakening of oil demand with a slowdown in China and the EU was leading to a drop in oil prices from the highs reached this year. OPEC Plus which includes Russia is taking this step to keep oil prices high. 

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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The BBC looks at Germany's scramble for energy in 2022. Germany is now doing everything for a winter without Russian gas- that means coal, LNG, new supplies from Qatar and the US. EU wants 15% cut in consumption, more efficient use and less use of energy. And boosting investments in renewable energy.

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Putin's personal animosity stemming perhaps from Sashkavili's tendency (see links to Sashkavili) to speak his mind and be blunt and personal conversations between the two that may have inflamed the situation and unknown to the world outside, may have played a larger role in this conflict than is fully understood. And falling into the whole backdrop of Russian retreat after the fall of the Soviet Union and hurt feelings which are described by Gorbachev (seee link to Gorbachev) this has become mixed up to such an extent that its hard to separate the two and know where one ends and the other begins. So it certainly makes any hasty judgements of Russia's intentions when Russia itself is sorting out what happened and trying to figure out whats really important hurt feelings since the 1990's, the past, or European integration, the future. Medvedev's quieter stance may play a bigger part as things settle down and Europe forges its own efforts at economic integration of Russia.

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A pair of reports by the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee shows that Google, Facebook and Twitter "evaded" and "misrepresented" themselves about the extent of activity by Russian trolls on their sites.