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Indian Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal says India represents only 2% of overall global exports. This means there is a great opportunity today to double this even as global trade slows because of the small size it is now and the policy of resilient supply chains sought by the US and EU. A country India's size and technological capacity would in normal situation have 10% or 15% of global exports he said, so that there was a huge opportunity for growth.

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The failure of Merkel's and Macron's policies in Europe. The policies contained a contradiction says this WSJ report- doing little to address concerns of Russia over NATO expansion and yet opting to build better economic relations with Russia. Merkel and Macron failed to tackle the main issue of NATO expansion. Did NATO need to expand continuously and what could be done so that Eastern European countries could join the EU but not NATO as a defense alliance. Without some new framework on this issue that was determined between US, Russia and Germany, France, for post 1990 peaceful relations the relationship with Russia based purely on trade has collapsed.  

This WSJ report also brings up the issue of the US and Europe not having it both ways - continually expanding NATO in the interests of the smaller nations in Eastern Europe and yet hoping to build a better relationship with Russia.

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There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening. ...

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Swiss bank UBS plans to make 10,000 job cuts in the next 3-5 years. Most of the job cuts will come at the investment banking operations which has 16,432 employees. Carsten Kengeter will be made chief of investment banking to concentrate on the downsizing effort. Andrea Orcel, who was brought in by new CEO Sergio Ermotti to be co-head of investment banking will run the remaining businesses of advising on mergers and equity underwriting. Trading businesses, especially fixed income, will be closed down. A third of the employees and 15 lines of business in the investment banking operation will be cut. The strategy is focus on businesses that do not require much capital to run and to build on its competitive advantages. This means focussing on its strong points in wealth management operations and the asset management division, which combined have $2 trillion under management. This move away from capital intensive business is part of an effort by Mr. Ermotti to dispel notions that UBS is not adequately capitalized. UBS suffered losses of $50 billion during the early part of the 2008 financial crisis, followed by the rogue bets by a trader in the London office leading to a loss of $2 billion in 2012. Following the most recent losses Sergio Ermotti was hired to replace Oswald Grubel in 2012. UBS now provides an example for other banks to overhaul their banking operations and downscale the importance and risks of investment banking....

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As part of Gandhi 150th the Hindustan Times gives pictures from archives of the independence struggle and Gandhi's efforts to get the British to quit India. After a period of 21 years in South Africa as a lawyer for rights of indentured laborers (coolies the British term) and of Indians in South Africa, Gandhi returned to India in 1914. He followed the program of personal responsibility starting with himself, that he had written in "Hind Swaraj" on a steamship from Britain to South Africa in 1910, for the next 20 years. He did not blame the British, and asked Indians to take responsibility for what had happened, and write a new chapter.   A period of home rule in the provinces with Congress party administrations in the 1930's ended by 1938. Gandhi launched the Quit India movement in 1942 with leaders Sardar Patel, Rajendra Prasad, and Jawaharlal Nehru. The end of the war and the rejection of Churchill in Britain's post war election in 1945 led to a Labour government led by Clement Atlee that sent Lord Mountbatten to negotiate British withdrawal from India. Gandhi saw clearly that in a country largely of rural labor in subsistence agriculture, getting people to learn about their own dignity was a first and indispensable step.  Once this was done, home rule administrations could pick up the experience of local government  (Hind Swaraj). His idea was that a few tens of thousands of Britishers focussed on trade as the British were a nation of shopkeepers, in the midst of hundreds of millions of people with a new found  sense of dignity and participation in political life, would make the British realize there was little advantage in staying. By the end of the war in 1945 experts looking into the archives show John Keynes advising the British government to withdraw because the cost was too great for Britain to remain, particularly after the war had drained a lot of Britain's wealth. ...

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Paul Krugman says in this column in the NYT that Biden's policies for trade reflect a stronger conviction for protecting American technologies and building its manufacturing base than previous administrations including the Trump administration. With less rhetoric and with quiet determination Biden has placed American domestic manufacturing as a requirement for renewable subsidies for new electric vehicles manufacturing and sale in the Inflation Reduction Act. In the Chips and Science Act Biden has placed US semiconductor technology promotion and manufacturing at the core of the Act. Krugman says this was the right thing for Biden to do. The renewable subsidy comes from ordinary Americans paying taxes who would benefit most from new jobs created in the electric vehicle industry. China has gained such a big lead in semiconductor chips manufacturing and materials by supporting its industry, that it is the right thing to do to give American manufacturers the same kind of support. Trade rules were about creating a level playing field, yet previous administrations failed to create that level playing field, and the Biden administration has boldly made its point clear. ...

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Robert Lighthizer was one of the early voices on unfair and imbalanced trade with other nations subsidizing their industry at the expense of American jobs in manufacturing long before DJT took up the issue in 2015-2016. Lighthizer as US Trade Representative negotiated the new USMCA that replaced NAFTA agreement for North American trade with Mexico and Canada. 

Lighthizer was seeking a larger role than USTR, either Commerce or Treasury, yet he was reluctant to campaign for this or go to Mar-a-Lago to make his case. As a result says WSJ, he was passed over as Luttnick and Bessent tried to get DJT's attention. Another reason he was passed over is that DJT is  sees the continuing flow of fentanyl and the migrant flows from Mexico, the sourcing from China, as serious issues that require using trade as part of the solution by 2024 if Mexico, Canada and China do not cooperate and hurt US interests.

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President Trump pushes forward with a deal with Mexico so that it can be signed before the new Mexican administration of Lopez Obrador takes over. This means leaving Canada out and having a separate deal with Canada later on. Mr. Trump sees negative connotations in the term NAFTA and would like to call it the "United States - Mexico Trade Agreement." Terms for Canada to join the agreement would be tougher and the pressure on Canada to strike a separate deal was increased with Mr. Trump saying there could be tariffs on imported Canadian made cars. Mexico has accepted revisions to NAFTA that make it harder for Mexico to challenge U.S. trade penalties. Mr. Trump's negotiating position is based on his conviction that the eagerness of other nations to sell in the U.S. market gives the U.S. a lot of clout. Mr. Trump also faces pressure from within the Republican Party to show results not just by imposing tariffs and playing hardball on trade but to come up with new trade deals. Steps taken by Mr. Trump were to impose tariffs of 25% on imports of aluminium and steel, and 25% tariffs on a list of imports from China including solar panels. President Trump hopes to get support from Democrats by including provisions that support trade unions in Mexico and higher wages in Mexico. The provisions also require higher wage labor in the U.S. to build the required U.S. content and are designed to support American jobs and wages in the auto industry.   ...

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Value added industrial output in China increased by only 4.4% in August, showing deteriorating economy. Fixed asset investment outside rural areas, was up to 5.5% in Jan-August 2019 compared to year earlier period. Premier Li Kequiang says "Against the backdrop of a complicated international situation and given the higher  base of comparison, it is not very easy for China to still sustain a medium to high growth speed of above 6%." 
China's economy expanded at 6.3% in the first half of 2019- the government's target is between 6 and 6.5%.

In the light of this situation in the economy China is taking aflexible approach to trade negotiations with U.S. trying to separate issues of competition and technology of the long run from trade, and seeking areas of agreement after the rhetoric of the past 6 months.

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This report in ProPublica on October 13, 2020, by Lydia DePillis was written near the end of Robert Lighhizer's term as US Trade Representative.  Bottom Line: It is human behaviour that no country, no kingdom or group will give up its money advantages secured when the opposition was weak or disorganized till the last fight is fought. The British were not giving up India, a source of financing the war against Napoleon in 1800's and then the Industrial Revolution in 1850's, the Dutch were not giving up the financial advantages of their Spices Empire in Batavia (Indonesia). History has shown this. Once gained under a state capitalism Japan was not going to give up its financial advantages gained by the 1980's when the US was weak or disorganized, till the last battle was fought.  Lighthizer who for the relentless Japanese was equally relentless till the goal of fair and level playing field for America was secured. This is true for China today on Liberation Day. This entire report by De Pillis in 2020 shows the Chinese would be relentless in 2020 like the Japanese in the 1980's, the Dutch in Indonesia  in the 18th and 19th century and the British in India in the 19th century and 20th century. China turned Mexico and Vietnam into supply routes into the US market. It continued its efforts to gain US technology in other ways. USTR older officials from the Bush Obama years of failed negotiations with China and endless hours putting together minute details of agreements including the TransPacific Agreement of Obama were not going to like the new approach of Lighthizer so stuck were they with the old approach of no clear goal and not getting an even playing field from China. ...

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China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

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The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are building closer relations with Taiwan. Central European and Eastern European countries trade less with China and see close relations with the US as essential for their security. This includes Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Czech Republic. Taiwan is increasing investments in Eastern Europe after investments by China failed to materialize in the last decade. Taiwan foreign minister is now on a visit to Slovakia and the Czech republic. For many Eastern Europeans the dominance of China brings back memories of the dominance of Soviet Union and the Cold War.  Taiwan says it is looking to deepen ties in the industrial, scientific and green energy fields with the region. Eastern Europe's perception of China has changed in the last three years as shared values of rule of law, democracy, and human rights with the rest of the world and the US are seen as important for the region.  Western Europe with France and Germany is also gradually moving away from its close dependence on trade with China. The French Senate is leading an effort to build closer ties with India by hosting Ambition India 2021 starting on October 29. Germany under Scholz of SPD and Baerbock of the Greens is moving away from the Merkel CDU era of close dependence on China in trade. ...

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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The Adventures of Amir Hamza is a story much like the Odyssey but set in the Persian, Central Asia Islamic world. It was born as far back as the 9th century. It has a South Asian version since the epic is retold in different settings and has a oral tradition of being recited by dastangos who used to recite these myths and legends . Amir Hamza is supposedly the uncle of the prophet Mohammed. Its South Asian version is in the Hamzanama that was commisssioned with painted manuscripts by the Mughal emperor Akbar. It has 1400 illustrations and formed the basis of Mughal art which was a fusion of the artistic worlds of Hindu India and Islamic Persia and Central Asia. In those times the Persian speaking world extended from Tabriz to Hyderabad in south of India and the Hamza Adventures were told around campfires and in the outdoors. The Hamzanama paintings commissioned by Akbar were shown at the Sackler Gallery around the time of the Iraq invasion in the summer of 2002 and show a world long forgotten. The Saudi type of Wahhabi Islam and religious zealotry is a far cry from this more open world of art and legend and life in central, south and western Asia, of commerce, trade and ways of life intermingled and flow of people across a large region in Asia. What it may suggest is that the current wave of religious zealotry is a kind of phase that like a passing wind comes and then is dispersed, maybe its a reaction to western interventions, maybe a failed response of tradition with modernization, maybe something else, a clinging to old outmoded patterns in areas that are most left behind by change, with ethnic and other strife mixed in with it. No single or simple response to it makes sense and a lot of patience is needed. Conflict of civilizations talk and the like may simply be overdone and way oversimplified things....

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This WSJ editorial says Donald Trump's first foreign policy speech is full of contradictions. Mr. Trump says foreign policy should be "unpredictable" yet this also means says the WSJ, that the country should trust his instincts, and everybody else a loser- "I'm the only one-believe me, I know them all- I'm the only one who knows how to fix it." It says the speech gets an "Incomplete" at Trump University. It criticizes Obama, but in failing to stand up for peace through strength that marked the post war peace since 1945, WSJ says that more than people realize Mr. Trump is a continuation of Mr. Obama's policies of withdrawing from global engagement that has ensured that peace. Trade wars with China, Mexico and Japan could lead to a world recession. Though much needs to be done to ensure trade is fair to U.S. workers and business, Trump has no clearly stated path to do this, instead relying on brinksmanship that could end up in trade wars.

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Xi Jinping's effort to shift the economy of China more towards serving the interests of Chinese who were left behind in the boom years includes a shift away from coal, away from real estate for speculation, and away from reliance on trade with the US and Europe as a driver for growth. This is proving to be difficult as the pandemic has increased demand for Chinese exports making trade a bigger driver for growth than before the pandemic. Introduction of a property tax to cut into real estate speculation has been scaled down to trials in 10 cities.  China did not put stimulus checks in the accounts of its people the way the US did which has led to Chinese domestic consumption not rebounding the way it has done in the US. Figures for consumer spending in China for September show an increase of 4.4% from the year earlier far below the pace of 8% set for 2019. The lack of social security and other safety nets in China makes people to save even more today. Chinese savings rate was 40% in 2019, today it is 45.2% for May 2021, according to one survey. Personal consumption makes up 38% of China's GDP in 2020, it was 39% in 2019. In the US it went up in 2021 June to 69% compared to 67% by the end of 2020. Infrastructure and construction deepened debt problems in China, and expanding exports created trade tensions. Both these problems have deepened with the pandemic. As this report says Chinese exports have gone gangbusters. Problems in production in Vietnam and Malaysia have added to export surge from China. China's trade surplus with the world is now at $535 billion in 2020, and surplus with US increased by 7% to $317 billion in 2020 from 2019.  Chinese government policy is now for "common prosperity" to reduce inequality and spread wealth and income more evenly for all the Chinese people. This is taking time and Chinese government policy is now set for the long run with these short run problems. ...

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Experts in Germany and the U.S. look at areas adversely affected by free trade and globalization and the increasing support for right wing parties in these areas. David Autor is a labor economist in the U.S. at MIT who has studied these trends. He says trends in free trade have hurt low wage workers. In 2014 he and David Dorn, Gordon Hansen, Jae Song, published a paper showing how trade with China was affecting different parts of the U.S. Lower wage workers, most of them with less education and skills were prone to be unemployed or face lower earnings in areas where cheap imports from China were replacing domestic production. Donald Trump has strong support with the white working class and less educated workers who form this group. He has accused China of "currency manipulation" and proposed a 25% tax on Chinese imports. Experts say there is no strong evidence that immigrants are causing this type of dislocation in the U.S. Yet immigrant bashing is used by Trump and other right wing politicians which is attributed to it being an easy tactic for politicians to appeal to the anxieties of working class voters....

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JP Morgan Chase Treasurer, Joseph Bonocore, left the bank in October 2011, and his replacement took office in March 2012. Bonocore had served as chief risk officer of the Chief Investment Office for 11 years and was intimately familiar with its operations. The executive in charge of risk management at the Chief Investment Office had little risk management experience. Mr. Goldman was named chief risk officer in February 2012. His brother in law Barry Zubrow had previously served as chief risk officer of the bank for many years. In January 2012, Zubrow took the position of head of corporate regulatory affairs. Goldman had spent most of his years as a trader starting at Salomon Brothers in 1980's He later worked at Credit Suisse and Cantor Fitzgerald. He left Cantor after his unit incurred trading losses. In February 2012, Goldman, Zubrow and Ms Drew met with officers of the Federal Reserve arguing in favor of less regulation on proprietary trading, including the Volcker Rule, according to Fed documents....

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Chancellor Merkel's now widely quoted words were made in Munich on May 27, 2017, after a NATO summit meeting in Brussels and a Group of 7 meeting in Italy, in which she was disconcerted by U.S. president Trump's positions on NATO, Russia, climate change, and trade. These words "the times in which we could rely fully on others - they are somewhat over." Merkel added "This is what I experienced in the last few days." After the election of Emmanuel Macron in France, Merkel expressed great relief at the outcome of the French election with Macron winning about two thirds of the vote, setting the stage for the election in Germany after several months of difficult watching and waiting. Now there is new confidence in Germany shaping its own future, with France and the rest of the European Union without Britain. Merkel says she "experienced this" meaning that she had undergone a transformation in these few months, and visibly in the last few days. She was also sending a message to Germans and people of the European Union - "we have to know that we must fight for our future on our own, for our destiny as Europeans." This also complements tactically to form the approach of Germany and France at the leadership of the EU, as French president Macron said at the end of the Group of 7 conference that multilateralism was intact, and the U.S. and EU shared many common goals.   ...

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Where EU gets LNG in 2024- Qatar 12% US 43% Russia 21% other 24%. EU's gas pipeline supplies increased in 2025 from Norway by 6% to 52.6%. Norway is also increasing its LNG supplies from Hammerfest. US under the Trade Agreement with EU US plans to send $750 billion in LNG exports to the EU. A Sustainability directive by EU for climate goals puts Qatar at risk of penalty of 2.43 billion euros according to DW.com. Qatar has said it may discontinue exports of LNG to EU in response and shift to Asian buyers. Since the Ukraine war and shift away from Russian gas pipeline supplies German economy Minister Habeck negotiated the deal with Qatar for LNG.

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Federal officials trade stocks in companies they oversee. This is a special Wall Street Journal Investigation on this topic showing how officials in government worsened the deep divide in the nation between the more privileged and the less privileged by looking at their own financial interests first before the public interest and the public priorities they swore to uphold. This investigation covers several articles that can be opened. At some times it says here it was hard to tell whether the government officials worked for the government or the companies the were to oversee.

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Australia increases its defense budgetfrom 1.8% to 2.2% of GDP, and shows willingness to go up to 3%, as it strengthens its naval capabilities. French submarine contract was cancelled as US shows willingness to provide nuclear submarine technologies to Australia. French diesel submarines were too slow and could not remain underwater for long periods. Nuclear submarines would let Australia monitor Indo-Pacific seas, with US help. This is now an issue as Taiwan is being threatened and Australia faces economic coercion in trade relations from China. US, UK and Australia form a new partnership with president Biden leading the way.

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Discussions between president Ramaphosa of South Africa and DJT center on protecting South Africa's Afrikaaner minority. DJT has protested expropriations of Afrikaaner farms by the govenrment. It also will include trade and efforts to stabilize South Africa's economy which needs US cooperation. Afrikaaners are the Dutch minority that ruled South Africa after the Boer War of 1900 ceded authority from the British to Afrikaaners. South Africa developed a multi racial state after the collapse of Apartheid segregation in 1994, yet the country has faced shortages of energy, mismanagement and minority rights issues since 1994.

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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The monopoly over news publishing in the UK began in 1981 with the purchase of loss making The Times through negotiations with the trade unions.  As shown in The Guardian Rupert Murdoch met with Margaret Thatcher on Jan 3 1981 weeks before the matter was brought up by Thatcher at a cabinet meeting so that it would not be referred to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. This is revealed in the Thatcher papers held at the Churchill archives in Cambridge 30 years after the event in 2012. This was the year Ronald Reagan's administration replaced Jimmy Carter's administration in 1981. In 2022 Tories Secretary Nadine Torries removed controls that protected the editorial independence of The Times.