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The demand for ships went up so steeply that shipping rates hit the roof, and the prices of ships went up accordingly. Between the end of 2006 and July 2008 , shipyards received enough commissions, says the Economist, that this would double the world's fleet. Just as demand has collapsed and international trade has gone down, about 9000 ships are coming onstream. Now 11% of fleet capacity justs sits on the water, in the seas outside the harbors of Singapore, Hong Kong and other southeast Asian ports. A 150 tonne cape class ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5 million in the used market, when rates for charter were $15,000 a day, had risen by summer 2008, to $85 million with rates of $175,000 a day. These rates went up even more to $300,000 a day, which is 20 times what it was in 2003. And rates today are back down to $15,000 a day, where they were in 2003. This ship, cited by a broker, to give some idea of the extent of this boom and its collapse, was sold for scrap at $7 million. And South Korean shipyards are taking this into account, in their pricing and collection of payment, with 20% demanded upfront, 60% during construction, and 20% upon delivery. The backlog in shipyards is estimated by Clarkson Research, a maritime research firm, at $526 billion, even as banks are leery of lending and concerned about the value of the collateral in the event of default. Some smaller Korean shipyards are closing. Steve Mann, analyst at HSBC, says that half of the orders for delivery in 2010 will be delayed, so that there is work for 2011 and inventory or excess capacity does not pile up on the oceans. Even in this situation China, India and Vietnam continue to support the expansion of their own shipyards. This suggests additional losses for shipbuilders, shipping lines and the banks that lend to shipyards. All this also goes to show that the rush to industrialize, once it gets a firm footing- like it has in the Chinese model of increasing investment and local governments pushing infrastructure, industry and export factories with officials judged on GNP growth numbers- can exacerbate a boom-bust cycle. This is one industry, others include machinery manufacturers, commodity producers, and manufacturers of parts that go into finished products assembled in China for export. This means it would take the world economy down with it, if some external factor like the drop in export demand suddenly slows everything down. Machinery manufacturers in Germany, commodity producers in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and manufacturers of the high tech parts in Japan and Taiwan that are shipped to China for assembly, all go down in this boom-bust cycle, in a dramatic manner. ...

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The WTO setimates that global merchandise trade will decline by 9% in 2009. Betweeen 1990 and 2006 these trade flows increased by 6% a year, outstripping the growth of world output which remained at 3%. See the chart showing GDP and world trade growth year over year. Because of vertical supply chains products were shipped across borders and imported back into the country that exported a product, till the product was finally assembled in some third country like Mexico, in the case of automobiles. This interlinking of countries worsens the effect in adownturn, by bringing output down in many countries at once in any particular industry with these supply chains. And conversely positive effects are exaggerated in a upturn or boom cycle like that which was witnessed in recent decades. It makes a 1930's like situation less likely, where trade dropped by over 25%, because now all countries are affected, America's car industry exports as well as imports the same item as it is processed in several countries, and imported to the USA as a semifinished product and then assembeled in Mexico, as one example. Leaders of the G-20 agreed to fight protectionism athe the London meeting in April 2009. Is this enough? Should the Doha Round of talks be resumed? Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and Aaditya Mattoo of the World Bank, argue that the Doha Round is too ambiious, as it tries to open markets for rich countries manufactured goods just when the crisis has hit developing countries making this ahard sell. At the same time DOha Round does not exclude Buy AMerica provisions and subsidies to fialing industries like the auto industry support measures taken by both the EU countries and the USA. So they sugggest anew "crisis round" of talks to replace Doha, and this makes sense as the items on the agenda can now be tailored to the pressing needs of a different time from when Doha round was conceived, and thus more realistic in its approach. And in the meantime all WTO members would commit to astandstill and take no measures that are protectionist. The Economist says the new "crisis round" would not do any better as there may not be the same level of interest in another round. It suggests that agood start would be for the leaders of the G-20 to be specificabout what protectionist measures it sees as unproductive and unhelpful in containing this crisis. Draw up a comprehensive list of protectionist measures that go beyond tariffs and export subsidies. The WTO would then be asked to monitor the countries based on this list and publish alist of offending countries, letting embarassment of these countries act as a kind of policing. And in addition an agreement should be reached on coordinating fiscal policy, so that it would reduce fears of leakages abroad. ...

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House Democrats in the USA want to require all steel to be used in stimulus infrastructure projects come from the USA. Some of these moves may result in moves by other countries to require that their stimulus spending use made at home only provisions.

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How the Cowley plant stands as a fine example of how foreign investment has helped regenerate the area around Oxford university. BMW has invested more than $560 million in the plant since 2000 and in April 2007 the plant produced its millionth Mini a car based on a contemporary design of the old Morris Mini car. BMW has with its investments contributed about 55,000 jobs and $5 billion to the British economy in 2004 according to Oxford Economic Forecasting. UK received foreign investment that was 37% of of its gross domestic product in 2005, higher than France 28%, germany 18%, and the USA 13%, according to figures from the United Nation Conference for trade and Development. It has helped the British economy as the unemployment rate is lower than most of the EU countries. In the financial services industry a lot of foreign investors from USA, Germany and Switzerland have bought British firms and the financial services industry has thrived with all the international presence and Britian has increased its position as a centre of global financial services....

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Rob Copeland describes the comeback of Citadel hedge fund and its founder Ken Griffin. During the 2008 financial crisis the firm almost collapsed with $8 billion in losses. It recovered only by barring clients from withdrawing money for 10 months, and slowly selling distressed assets as the market recovered. It took over 3 years to make up losses. Leverage at the time was high with 3 dollars of borrowed money for $1 in client money. Leverage in 2015 is higher at $7 of borrowed money for $1 of client money. In 2012-2015 three year period, by taking aggressive positions early, Citadel has made $3 billion. It is now engaged in many investments including commodities, buying and selling securities for other investors, trading, fixed income, global equities. To offset the higher risk Citadel bets equally on up and down markets, so that only 52% of stock bets need to work, according to Griffin. Copeland shows the highly intense nature of the business, large turnover of managers, the atmosphere on the 37th floor of the Chicago offices with 500 scenarios being simulated of the hedge fund's investments, and analysts looking at 36 screens of 14,000 investment positions. After the 2008 financial crisis highly leveraged activity continues at Citadel, just as other hedge funds have pulled back and targeted lower returns in mid to high single digits, or to improve their image. Citadel assets increased from $16 billion to $26 billion since the beginning of 2014, with higher returns of over 25% in its main investment funds Kensington and Wellington in 2013. The average hedge fund made returns of 6.2% in 2013, according to analysis by firm Hedge Fund Research. As part of risk mitigation Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has joined the firm as advisor- in 2008 the Fed was questionning this type of highly leveraged activity that led to the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. Of the top ten hedge funds only Millenium Management and Citadel had leverage this high in reports to the SEC under Dodd Frank of regulatory assets that include borrowings for investment, showing systemic risk that remains in the financial system....

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David Stockman was Budget Director under President Reagan and known for his prodigous grasp of statistics in the national budget. Here he takes on what he describes as disproportionately large and destructive banking system for the U.S. economy, which he says the nation desperately needs less of. He supports the small tax of 0.15% of the debts other than deposits of financial conglomerates. His words are some of the strongest yet to come from one of the most prominent people on Reagan's economic team about how the nation's banking system has beome unproductive in supporting economic activity which is its reason for existence. The destructive effects on social cohesion and the middle class is emphasized. He says for years the Fed has run an insanely loose monetary policy that has encouraged this behaviour and socially detrimental profit seeking by the banks and other companies. He sees the big banks as dangerous institutions in today's economy engaged in a bull market culture which believes in entitlement and profitseeking behaviours regardless of its detrimental nature for the national economy. The recent profits of the banks in 2009 and the resulting bonuses are a result of the Fed's easy money policy and bank's gambling at the Fed's monetary casino as he puts it, with money obtained at little cost from Fed-controlled money markets. This article helps to eliminate the distorted perspective in today's climate that paints criticism of splitting up the banks, or otherwise restricting banks in engaging in proprietary trading and risky behaviours, as government interference. As Stockman puts it these banks are already in some sense wards of the state and not private enterprises and this issue is not relevant. The question now is how to set things right and this involves possible solutions such splitting up banks that are too big to fail, restricting risky behaviours and preventing proprietary trading, and other actions as unusual steps for unusual times to get things working back to normal. In other times Stockman would not have said this in an op-ed piece if this were not so....

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A poll conducted twice each year by the University of Hong Kong researchers since 1997 shows Hong Kongers increasingly identify with their city including Hong Kong diaspora returning to the city from overseas. The latest June poll shows this identification increasing in intensity as time passes. Compared to 1997 and 2007 more Hong Kongers identify themself with Hong Kong and much less with "citizen of the People's Republic of China." After "Hong Konger" the identification next is with "Asian," "global citizen," and "members of the Chinese race." Culture is one major aspect of this, the other is the sense of being drowned by mainland people, by the large number of people from the mainland cities buying housing in Hong Kong, driving up prices and making housing unaffordable for the local people. Other aspects of this are the mothers going to maternity wards so their children can get Hong Kong residency, and the slots in elite schools going to mainlanders. Even the tycoons and large business interests are seen as distanced from the local Hong Konger because of the increasing inequality in society, their benefitting from business ties with the mainland with willingness to give up Hong Kong's local interests. At another level one can see this local identity across other parts of mainland China also, as the educated middle class in Shanghai and Beijing see themselves as apart from the "country bumpkins" and migrants from surrounding rural areas. This is a cultural phenomenon quite different and apart from the ideological concerns of the Communist Party, cultural difference which always exist below the surface. The business elite of the Communist Party can relate more to the environs of Sydney, Australia, than to the rural areas around Shanghai, just as much as the business elites in Bombay with connections to a ruling party can relate to Sydney or Toronto. Not everything about humans fit neatly into ideas such as "China Dream," or a "India Dream." And this may be a good thing when all is said and done- only human nature seeking not to be disturbed. ...

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S&P's faulty ratings on U.S. mortgage securities was a critical factor leading to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the deep recession that followed in the U.S. Recovery was only made possible by large government stimulus and central bank intervention with monetary easing on a massive scale. The effects are still evident after millions of people lost their homes in foreclosures and widening income inequality. Yet it took about 7 years before S&P accepted responsibility and settled with the Justice Department. Earlier S&P accused the Justice Department of suing the company in retaliation for a downgrade of U.S. government debt in 2011. In the convoluted upside down nature of such lawsuits and protests by defendents, McGraw Hill said that the settlement "contains no findings of violations of law." Yet the government produced 290 million documents in response to discovery requested by S&P. Associate U.S. Attorney General, Stuart Delery, the top negotiator for the government, says "put simply, the department brought this case because S&P committed fraud." Delery says no case in Justice Department history has produced this many documents. The Justice Department cited several instances of breach of duty in a statement signed by both parties. In 2007 an internal group's downgrade recommendation for a large number of mortgage securities was rejected by upper management because of concern S&P would lose business. In another cited instance S&P alters its ratings model for grading complex risky securities in 2004 with the goal of being able to issue grades for "2-3 notch improvements" and resulting "improving of S&P market share." S&P had about $1.9 billion in cash balances in third quarter 2014, say analysts, and the settlement was designed to set the right course but not hurt S&P in carrying out its role of issuing about 95% of ratings globally along with counterparts Moody's and Fitch. Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood says S&P's responsibility lies in that banks might be expected to do something shady, but credit ratings agencies were the ones the country looked up to to do the right thing and flag this....

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This condensed adaptation of the book by McNish and Silcoff on the collapse of Blackberry with the launch of the iPhone, tells a story of complacency at Research in Motion. Supreme Court Justice Brandeis once said that complacency was like all the seven sins rolled into one. In the smartphone industry the results were lethal. RIM founders Lazaridis and Balsillie responded to the iPhone launch believing this would not affect Blackberry. The founders rationalized that what would determine success in the business was security, battery life, ability to type, and using less capacity so as not to strain networks, areas in which RIM was strong and on which it had built its market presence. Design, using mobile to offer broad access to internet content, and the touch screen, were not seen as changing the very nature of the phone market. During the summer of 2007 many users shifted to the iPhone, and it cultivated a cult following using strategies Apple had honed on earlier product launches, reaching 1 million in sales. RIM was completely unprepared and could offer Verizon Communications a prototype called the Storm, which was launched hastily with product glitches still remaining. This happened in November 2008 and turned out to be complete disaster- initial sales were great selling 1 million units in 2 months of 2008, but reversed when almost all of the units were returned because the browser was slow and the clickable screen did not respond well. Nokia, another competitor, is also caught unawares sticking to its formula of success, when all the rules were being rewritten by Apple by showing what the new possiblilities were with the right technology in what one could do with a smartphone. Blackberry introduced a smartphone in 2012 by putting together a patchwork of licensed technologies. By this time Apple, Samsung and other competitors had captured significant market share, and the smartphone flopped. The successor Z10 also flopped in 2013. Nokia faced another problem- the inability to convert R&D, at times larger than Google and Apple, into new products, and the failure of management to grasp the potential of new technologies. According to a former employee, Nokia management turned down a internet ready phone with touch screen developed by its engineers in 2004....

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Financial Stability FOrum will be renamed the Financial Stability Board and include 10 additional members, These additional members are from developing countries or emerging markets, including Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and China. This forum which currently brings together regulators, central bankers and finance ministers from a few wealthy nations, will now reflect the views of emerging countries. It previously only served as aforum for exchanging ideas. Now it will be given the task of drafting the detailsfor global standards for financial institutions, including benchmarks for executive pay and how much risk that financial firms can take on. But there is still some resistance to the idea of getting ideas from different sources and including the benefit of a diversity of experiences and backgrounds, even though some of these countries, have borne the brunt of these recurring economic crises in the past, as have Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics says that you have to hear out China but objects to taking advice from Argentina, a comment which reveals the insular nature of these forums and boards in the past, with little or no representation from places where a majority of the word's peoples live. As would be expected in the light of that comment, there is resistance to giving China, India, Brazil, Russia, and other large developing countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia proper representation in the IMF's governing bodies, and having the rules changed so that the head of the IMF and other important staff members could be selected from emerging countries. Each of these countries can bring adifferent perspective to the decisions made at the IMF, as most of them have suffered from these recurring economic crises in the postwar period. South Korea's experience with the IMF is the most recent and is covered in the link to S. Korea and the IMF, and if reflected in the policy making at IMF could help it perform a more constructive role in this crisis. This is also the case with some of the other countries....

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Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

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By influential business leaders from Brazil, India, Sweden, the US, France and Japan. A strong case for completing the Doha Round even if this takes difficult and decisive choices. The concern is about preserving and building on all the gains in free trade made in earlier Rounds. Not one of the earlier Rounds failed so this would be a first. Differences in areas like agriculture which are politically sensitive in countries like France and Brazil stand in the way. See the article by Scott Miller, French Resistance to Trade Accord has Cultural Roots, in the Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2006.

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Tata and WIPRO executives say they depend on in-house training programs because many of the engineering graduates in the recruitment pool are not qualified. Recruitment firm NIIT Ltd. says 75% of technical graduates and 85% of general graduates are not fully qualified to work in information technology and other industries, based on assessment tests conducted by the firm. This is happening even as the engineering colleges in India have seats for 1.5 million graduates, according to the National Association for Software and Services. The problem is that the focus is on rote learning, and not on comprehension and critical thinking skills. By keeping the tution at low levels the revenue is not enough to pay teachers salaries at decent levels and attract good teachers. The schools do not generate the strong reading and comprehension skills necessary for jobs in growing fields. Annual surveys by Pratham looked at grade school performance of 13,000 schools across India. This shows about half of the fifth graders cannot read at a second grade level....

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The Journal editorial says Petraeus's experience would have been better utilized as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The fear is that he may have been miscast or shunted aside at the CIA. Cartwright is expected to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. General John Allen who takes over from Petraeus in Afghanistan has no experience there. Panetta faces a challenge at Defense to reduce spending.

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Like hundreds of thousands of other young migrant workers in China's factories, Yuan Yandong is from a rural area and lived on a farm. Better incomes have brought them to the factories in urban areas. In this case travelling long distance by train from Guangdong province to Shenzhen. As living standards improved across China and the government expressed a keen willingness to encourage workers to exercize their rights to fair wages and working conditons- especially by creating increased awareness of new labor laws in the state run media- migrant workers are becoming restless with conditions they accepted a few years ago. The growing use of cellphones and access to the internet have made news travel faster. A visit to a Foxconn factory shows a young worker, age 24, sitting on a stool 6 nights a week, 12 hours a night, with a quota to assemble 1600 hard drives for American computer storage company EMC, with the pressure to work continuously against the clock for each step in the manufacturing process. Foxconn is known for its highly disciplined nature of work, akin to a military style. Behind the scenes factories like Foxconn employ methods once used in the US at a similiar stage of industrialization, with 500 technical people continuously looking for the most efficient way to organize each step in the production process. Each movement and action of the worker is measured for time taken and process efficiency, according to experts at Tsinghua University in China. This means many factories can use less automation- and so less capital intensive manufacturing- and go to extremes where workers perform like machines. Yuan's ambition is to work only for another 2 years and then use his savings to get into hotel management. His wages are 75 cents an hour, and with the overtime premium about $235 a month. Foxconn announced a 33% raise in wages as a result of worker protests. The mind numbing monotony is becoming less acceptable in a changing China, and worker turnover in such factories is rising. After the initial burst of industrialization in which young migrant workers played a signifcant role in manufacturing, a new chapter in China's development is beginning- one less likely to create the large trade deficits with the US and Europe- which is moving in the direction of a larger domestic market with higher worker wages....