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France is moving quickly with spending on the $37 billion stimulus. Public buildings, museums, cathedrals and historical sites are being renovated in 2009. About 50 chateaus, and 75 cathedrals are part of 100 million euros for cultural centres. About 75% of France's stimulus money will be spent in 2009, in contrast to the slow work in the USA.

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The U.S. Labor Department report shows 156,000 jobs added in September 2016. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, because of the increase in the total pool of workers, The labor force increased by 3 million workers over the first 9 months of 2016. The labor force participation rate was up by half a percentage point to 62.9% for the year 2016, as it drew more workers who were earlier discouraged to look for work. Wages grew by 2.6% over the year.

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Japan is meeting a shortage of workers by bringing in workers from other countries including China. In jobs ranging from apple picking to airport baggage handling Japan is getting foreign workers, and making changes in its immigration laws. Prime minister Abe is pushing for these changes to increase growth of the Japanese economy. In the past 4 years the number of foreign workers has nearly doubled to 1.46 million and a new visa system will accelerate the process to bring in more workers. Out of 27 countries in a Pew Survey Japan is the only country where more people favor immigration to rise than those who think it should decline. The Chief Cabinet Secretary Mr. Suga says- " In my view that shows how real the labor shortage problem is." Immigration authorities say they gave visas to only 82 refugees in 2018, less than 1% of those applying, so that there is not a sense of recasting Japan as a nation of immigrants or fulfilling any obligation to accept people from war torn nations. The problem Japan is facing is that 3 in 10 people are over 65 years old. In 2018 the population declined by 430,000, causing a need for job applicants. In fact cities and towns are looking for new ways to hire older workers who retired by offering flexible hours. ...

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UK Labour's vote is middle class professionals mostly in London region 2026 also contested by The Greens. The Greens after Polanski took over have increased their overall vote in polls for a general election to 20% from 11%. It is the young vote for Labour that the Greens are taking. Of the people who voted for Labour, only 50% in Jan 2026 would vote Labour, according to You.gov cited in The Guardian. The rest gets scattered making it difficult for Labour to form a new government on its own. Of the remaining 50% that now does not go for Starmer's Labour 20% go to The Greens, 14% to Liberals, and 6% to Reform UK, ad 4% Conservative. The astonishing aspect of The Greens rise is how many young people 18-24 years now go for Greens up to to 46% in Jan 2026 from 26% in September 2025. Among 25 to 49 years group The Greens take 20% of the total vote. In a few months everything has changed. Issues for The Greens aren the Economy, Cost of Living, NHS,  Housing, Inequality and Poverty. ...

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The second lockdown in France that begins October 29 for 4 weeks is very different from the first. It incorporates many of the lessons learned during the first lockdown.  The construction industry will remain open after this made a large dent in the French economy during the first lockdown. Schools K-12 will now remain open, with children required to wear masks at age six, and stricter rules for masks and visiting parents. The universities will remain open with classes online, but physically closed. Buses metro and other transport will remain open. Churches will remain open but be limited to very small gatherings. Parks forests, gardens and beaches will remain open this time but one has to live within 1 kilometre to access them and limited to 1 hour. People are prohibited from travelling outside the region in which they are registered. People can exercize for 1 hour within 1 kilometre of their home. All are required to carry a signed form for any type of activity, including shopping, work, accessing essential services, or for their one hour exercize. Not having the signed form would lead to a fine of 135 euros. Because bars, restaurants will be closed people in these hard hit industries will get 100% of their pay from the government. In other industries companies will contribute 15% and the government 85% so that these people are covered. ...

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The European Union Commission says Ireland must recover 13 billion euros in back taxes for giving tax preferences to Apple that are against EU rules. The EU Commission says Ireland allowed Apple to pay a corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003, and .005% in 2014. The EU Commissioner says the use of Ireland as the place where Apple pays taxes on operations in Europe has no base in reality, as most profits are earned in other countries outside Ireland. Taxable profits of Apple "did not correspond to economic reality," according to Ms. Vestager, the EU Commissioner.  In the current environment where political upheaval is unsettling the democratic process in the U.S., Britain, Spain, France and Italy, as well as in Brazil and other countries in the developing world- because of deep recessions, and efforts to cut the deficits with deep cuts in state spending including in education and healthcare, basic services- the moves by companies to reduce taxes to these absurdly low levels such as .005% when other companies in the EU are paying 12.5%, is becoming increasingly unpopular. As pointed out in this BBC News article this sounds like the way Carnegie, Rockefeller and Vanderbilt operated during the late 19th century, and were seen as operating in a manner that was above the law. Janet Yellen pointed out at a Boston Fed Conference on inequality in Oct 2014 that the bottom half of the distribution or 62 million households in the U.S. in 2013, had a net worth of about $10,000, One quarter of these households had a net worth of zero dollars. The working class and blue collar workers in the U.S. provide much of the support at Trump rallies. Younger college educated people support Sanders, because of the situation of the working and middle class in the U.S., and a similar situation exists in Europe. It is for the sake of the democratic process and delivering services in education, healthcare, and other basic areas to all, that companies small and large need to pay their fair share of taxes, regardless of size, influence, or technological advantages. Today this is is seen by most leaders who draw public support as the right way forward for the U.S., Latin America, Europe and Asian countries, including proper allocation of resources to best serve the needs of working people. For example the 13 billion euros is equal to all of Ireland's healthcare budget, and 66% of its social welfare budget.    ...

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The US is facing a new pattern of demographic changes and their impact on Medicare and Social Security programs. The number of people on Medicare will grow in 2 decades, 2010- 2030, from 47 million to 80 million for Medicare, and from 44 million to 73 million for Social Security, according to this estimate. The workforce will grow more slowly and the tax base wiill shrink accordingly during this period. This pending worker-pensioner imbalance and the jump in the cost of the bill for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the federal health benefit for poor people, create a major problem for the US. At the same time the group of people over 65 will rise in these 2 decades from 17% of the voting age population to 26%. This group and the people who expect to soon join this group will resist any changes to Medicare or Social Security programs, making it that much harder for the political process to tackle these issues to make the programs sustainable in the long run.

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WSJ poll in January 2025 shows DJT has the support of the American people to make changes and at the same time not enough support for major changes the president elect has promised to make. Deport all migrants with criminal records 75% support. On large scale deportation of migrants 70% disapprove deporting long time residents who have no criminal records. Does this long time resident mean people who are here before 2021 when for the first time migrants reached 200,000 in mid year 2021 exceeding the 150,000 peak in DJT's first term, is not made clear by this report on the WSJ poll. This is the point mid 2021 when Biden was supposed to have removed Mayorkas as Homeland Secretary and come up with new legislation with Republicans to close the border before a surge.  Ending birthright citizenship- 64% disapprove 31% approve. Set tariffs on all foreign goods- 48% approve 46% disapprove Eliminating programs for healthcare, education, social safety net- 60% disapprove 34% approve. Eliminate the Department of Education, and eliminate replace career civil service officers- 60% disapprove. ...

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How savings habits changed from the last generation to this one. By age 45 savings rate rose sharply to about 30% of disposable income for our parent's generation. For the generation born 1955-64 savings rate remained unchanged at 10%, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. The result of the financial crisis is that credit cards are declining and savings are up. Credit cards shrank by 11% or 32 millon in 2009 according to Nilson Report.

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It is not commonly realized how much of an economic collapse Russia suffered as a result of Mr. Gorbachev's failure to plan a smooth transition out of communism- a 40% drop in  drop in GDP, a peak of 2000% increase in inflation, and drop in life expectancy from 69 years to 65. With lack of safeguards in place for vulnerable sectors such as the elderly and displaced workers, no setup for securing the rule of law, no periods of experimentation with market economy in parts of the country as China had done. Krugman says it was worse than the Great Depression in the US in the 1930's, a particularly traumatic period Americans remember, because the collapse was deeper, and the rogue elements took over parts of the economy leading to a breakdown of the rule of law. One hears too much about the fall of the Berlin Wall, great for West Germany and less about the trauma this was for elderly and vulnerable workers in  East Germany, and for Russia as a whole. Here Paul Krugman describes what happened and how this brought to power another group under Putin. For Putin and many Russians these are the memories that lead them to say it was the "greatest catastrophe" of the twentieth century. Krugman has put this in graphs showing the economic data from multiple sources, including the World Bank and US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The graphs show the Great Depression in the US was about loss of 27% of GDP, inflation was not severe and FDR ensured both rule of law and hope with his election to tackle the problems, including America's vast resources. ...

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Citadel, a large hedge fund headed by Kenneth Griffin is having problems, with its flagship fund down 35% this year. And the rumor mill saying some of its funds are down 60% and Fed Reserve officials are visiting the fund. Citadel is leveraged 3 to 1 and this is down from higher levels . Ironically Griffin has been known for buying other companies assets for pennies on the dollar, including E Trade and hedge funds Sowood Capital. And where did Griffin get started? He started trading in his dorm room at Harvard in the eighties. The hedge fund $1.7 trillion industry is facing a shakeout. It has already lost $180 billion in the August-October 2008 period and some hedge funds face collapse.

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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Men all in their 20's and at different points in their careers, from all parts of the US are interviewed by the WSJ 6 months into the DJT administration to see what they think of performance so far.

Young men as a demographic group are optimistic about the economy even with high interest rates restricting housing access. Young men supported DJT in 2024 by 15 percentage points 57% to 42% giving the president an edge. Overall on foreign affairs messy international disputes, on immigration and hurdles in resolving returning migrants to home countries, they are considerate about what difficulties the president faces. They are optimistic about president DJT and his ability to handle tariffs, inflation, and the economic growth that will improve their lives in the coming years.

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US Universities awakening to the need to reduce costs after making college unaffordable to middle class. NIH says indirect costs are in the range of 60-70% at some elite universities, the proposal would cap this at 15% for all universities for federal funding. The purpose is to reduce administrative costs that are increasing and have universities take a hard look at finances not just increase salaries, hire more and increase prices for students to go to college. The savings generated could be $6.5 billion in this one action alone and some universities need to cut salaries and hire less to bring down their cost structure before a whole generation of young men are deprived of opportunities to go to college. Not everyone can be sent to apprenticeships and not all research needs to be funded. China and India and some European nations will be funding the same research with less. There is a Deepseek moment now not just for AI - for all research.

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A hybrid gas-electric bus costs 60% more, but is 30% more efficient for the hybrid model and 65% more fuel efficient for plug-in models, says a Navistar executive. Navistar is the first U.S. maker to bring out a hybrid bus model. Experts say buses are ideally suited for electric versions because of short routes within city limits and predicatable routes. School buses also spend a lot of time in depots where they can be charged easily. Trans Tech Bus is planning to start production of a electric school bus in partnership with Smith Electric Vehicles. Trans Tech's president says the new electric school bus will be priced so that districts could recover the added cost- a $30,000 premium at this time- in fuel savings of 3-5 years. The savings for diesel are about $60 a day for a school district near Fresno with poor air quality. Recharging the battery costs about $17.

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US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

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It is a moment in the Senate that Majority leader Schumer says will be remembered years from now. A total of 65 Senators vote to support an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and humanitarian aid, all Democrats and 18 Republicans as a group led by Senator Mitch McConnell, the Minority Leader. The Republican Senators include Senator WIcker the senior member on the Armed Services Committee, military veterans, and centrists. Voicing strong support were Senator Tillis of North Carolina and Moran of Kansas on the Senate floor. Tillis said "there is a common conviction that if we fail on this vote, if we don't support Ukraine, this is not bluster, not hyperbole- bad things will happen." Tillis also said that after the earlier vote to break a filibuster by Republican colleagues -"I slept like a baby last night." The list includes senior Republican leaders Cronyn of Texas, both senators from Iowa including Grassley, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Mullin of Oklahoma, Rounds of South Dakota, Thune of South Dakota, Todd Young of Indiana. In terms of age and experience this may be the most senior and most experienced Republican leaders from over half of the traditionally Republican states. ...

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After over a decade under the Christian Democrats and Merkel and the influence of older voters in elections, NYT says younger voters and candidates are coming into prominence in the 2021 elections. The SPD under Olaf Scolz is fielding 80 candidates under age 35 for parliamentary elections to form a new government. Digitization, child care, poverty and social mobility, and the need for a rising tide that lifts all boats are issues in this election.

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President Biden visits Nevada and calls for a 5% cap on rent increases by corporate landlords with over 50 rental units. The WSJ report July 15 shows 25% of people renting apartments in the US pay over 50% of their income just to pay rent leaving little for food and transport, education and healthcare. This is a severe problem in Nevada and in the US across all 51 states. The president is closely following mortgage rates that went up from 3% to 8%, creating affordability issues for prospective homeowners. Another proposal of the president that he can act on as it does not require Congressional action is to use federally underused land and repurpose it for building 15,000 affordable housing units in Nevada. Such proposals across the 51 states are needed today to address acute rental housing shortage and price increases of about 20% by landlords.

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Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT Editorial Board says the gap from 1972 to 2021 of 21% of GDP in spending and 17% of GDP in taxes taken in is a serious problem because it creates $31 trillion in debt and over 475 billion in interest payments each year. And much of the spending is wildly popular 63% that goes to Social Security and Medicare, and vital spending on health care and education, social services that takes up 15%. The rest is defense and interest payments. The rest of the G7 spend about 50% more on average he says. This is why he says Republicans holding up raising the debt ceiling is not the issue that needs to be faced each year there are better more direct and sensible solutions that also address the need for the Renewal of America after years of underinvestment in everything from infrastructure to health and education. And capital markets that overcrowded essential government spending to finance massive capital misallocation by tech companies, the costs of which are only now being understood in America. ...

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At this time following the Brexit vote $1 trades for 82 pence. This is a sharp drop in the value of the British pound. With it tech companies Dell, Microsoft, HP, and Apple are raising their prices sharply. Apple prices are up about 25% as a result of Brexit and fall in value of sterling. The price of Apple apps now reflects the falling value of the pound. Not only Britain is affected. In India the app which cost $0.99 now costs 80 rupees in India from 60 rupees previously, a 33% increase. In Turkey the increase is 30%. It all goes to show that as the Bank of England's GOvernor Carney has pointed out that Brexit comes at a price, a price that the British public were not alerted on at the time of the vote with the temporary crises of refugees influx and internal squabbles inside Labor and Tories deciding the vote.

 

 

 

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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Plans to introduce its Luma line to China by June 2012 in cooperation with China Telecom. It is betting on Chinese demand for smartphones to recover. Sales of CDMA phones- China Telecom uses CDMA technology- are expected to double to 60 million in 2012 from 30 million in 2011. China provided 17% of Noka sales in 2011, mostly basic or older phones. The challenge is now to get the Lumia line up and running fast. Nokia's timing is right as smartphones are just beginning a surge in China- IHS forecasts an increase from 65 million in 2011 to 120 million in 2012. Nokia's advertising and marketing and close work with China Telecom has also to kick in for it to maximize on this opportunity.