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UBS and Bank of America reach a settlement with Detroit before the city declared bankruptcy. The settlement was for interest rate swap contracts signed by Detroit officials in 2005, and settles the contracts for 75 cents on the dollar or $230 million. There is safe harbor for traders and banks in interest rate swaps or derivative contracts, so that the usual stay that blocks creditors from collecting debts does not operate. This kind of treatment for derivative contracts makes no logical sense in the context say experts. The swap contracts of 2005 were signed at a time the city took out a $1.4 billion variable interest rate loan to put into its pension funds, with the swaps as a hedge against rising interest rates. In fact Detroit is seeking a $350 million loan from Barclays Capital and it needs to resolve the swap for that loan. From this loan UBS and Bank of America get their $230 million leaving $120 million for streetlights, police and city services badly needed today. Public interest considerations of this kind were not considered by Congress when it made the rule for safe harbors universal in derivative contracts to reduce systemic risk of one financial institution dragging others into a systemic crisis. The safe harbor make it harder for a judge to say this thing smells and make attempts to change it. ...

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The South China Morning Post provides this view of China on the day of the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, on the long road from the founding of the government in 1949 under Mao, the Cultural Revolution, and the shift to a state sponsored market economy under premier Deng in the 1980's.  From being at early stages of industrialization to a fully developed modern and industrialized country over three decades.  The challenges China faces are whether its growth will slow with a high debt situation, trade war with the U.S., aging population and the housing bubble that has created problems in Hong Kong. This could lead to a situation where its per capita income stays in the middle range at around $12,000 per capita, referred to as a middle income economy by the World Bank. Some experts believe that the factors that propelled China since 1990- a youthful labor force, globalization reducing tariffs and benefitting from entry into WTO, easy access to western technology, land sales for local governments to finance industrial development, rapid urbanization, and infrastructure investment in electricity rail and highways, are now reaching their limits with smaller incremental steps and growth in the future. The big gains made in the last three decades could be limited by other factors also such as the high debt economy, build up of industrial overcapacity, limited domestic consumption to take the place of exports facing high tariffs. Countries normally face some slowdown in such situation after a period of rapid growth, Japan and South Korea being recent examples. During the transition period to a new kind of economy from the manufacturing export push Asian model many unseen social and other problems emerge. The situation in Hong Kong shows how the housing bubble can also lead to problems that require resources and attention.  There are other social problems that continue to remain hidden. It does not take long for hidden problems to emerge as the situation in Brazil for lack of sanitation and epidemic prevention shows. In China the cost of too rapid development has led to pollution of rivers and land that will need to be cleaned up. The effect of contamination of food supply is an ever present risk with the contamination of land and water. Little attention is paid to prevalence of smoking and its damaging effects on health. The one child policy also brings with it cultural issues of how a whole new generation of children without siblings. Many other social problems that affect the quality of life become evident as growth slows and addressing these problems can actually benefit the country and its people. ...

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This report in the Hindusthan Times compares the relatively few comments from India's Ministry of External Affairs on the Dokalam standoff between India and China, and the frequent and patriotic comments from the state media in China. India took a firm position on the sensitive border area road construction by China, because the Doklam plateau is the narrow area in the mountains that allows entry to India's northern plains. India and China announced disengagement following the incident. This report points out that the resolution happened on the eve of a BRICS meeting in China. Indian prime minister Modi's absence from the BRIC's meeting would have been an embarrassment for China, says the Hindusthan Times. The resolution would have happened after both sides realized that the border issue escalation was not in the interest of China and India as both sides face more important issues- India in the focus on modernization and China on sustaining growth and maintaining trade relations with the U.S. Trump administration at a time when the debt to GDP ratios exceed by some estimates 280% and trade has become a sensitive issue in America's midwestern states. ...

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Martin Feldstein on the U.S. economy in 2014 and the risks of the U.S. Federal Reserve tackling the economy on its own with monetary policy, without Congress taking on the task of policies to promote economic growth. Feldstein points out the 3.6% GDP growth estimate for the third quarter 2013 does not look that good considering that half of this is from buildup of inventory. GDP growth is about 2% as net result. With paralysis of Congress and the Executive branch the Fed's policy of huge buildup of long term bonds to reduce short term interest rates to zero and stimulate stock and home prices, he describes as the only game in town. The problem is that the size of the effect of increase in consumer spending from this increase in household wealth is small and not enough to contribute to significant GDP growth. The risks of this approach are that it contributes to destabilizing the economy as investors buy risky securities and bid up prices. He suggests a five year $1 trillion infrastructure development program, including defense, as a stimulus Congress should consider. Not the kind of stimulus that happened after the 2008 crisis. If not enough investment ready projects are available as in 2008 that will contribute to future growth, Congress should take another one year to prepare for this before moving forward. Debt reduction is key, and debt as a percentage of GDP should be reduced and set on a path to go where it was before 2008 to about 40%, deficits to below 2% of GDP. This should be done by slowing growth of Social Security and Medicare, and increasing revenues by limiting subsidies in the tax code that Feldstein as pushed for since 2010....

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It is the US that has stood steadfastly for freedom from colonization by European Powers in the Western Hemisphere and also in China and India. President James Monroe told Congress in 1823- "The nations of America are equally sovereign and independent with those of Europe. The people of the United States cannot, therefore, view with indifference attempts of European powers to interfere with the independent action of the nations on this continent." Nowhere is there even a hint of American effort to suppress freedom-  it was designed to prevent European powers recolonizing Mexico, Columbia, Argentina, Brazil. France invaded Mexico in 1828 on the pretext of collecting debts of 600,000 pesos (3 million francs) 15 years following the Annual Message to Congress of president James Monroe, in 1838 and again in 1867 on the same pretext. In 1867 the US after the Civil War placed an army in Texas to get the French to withdraw. The Monroe Doctrine is stated in the Annual Message to Congress of president James Madison in 1823. The US and Britain were concerned that the European colonial powers would attempt to recolonize Spain's former colonies that had become independent nations. Former presidents Madison and Jefferson agreed. John Quincy Adams sought to make this an American statement. The idea of preserving freedom in Latin America is enshrined in this document and the original document supported Greek Independence from Turkey, and was critical of France's invasion of Spain. A method employed by European powers to recolonize in the Western Hemisphere was to set an enormous sum of debt due as a pretext for invasion. Britain, Germany and Italy imposed a naval blockade of Venezuela in 1902-1903 on this pretext. The remaining colonies of Spain were in Cuba and the Philippines which were transferred to US after the Spanish American war. The US did not seek intervention for 3 years after the Spanish under Gen. Weyler pursued a policy of "reconcentration areas" for the Cuban population to suppress an independence movement causing great suffering in Cuba. On Feb 15 mines or torpedo sank the US ship the USS Maine in Havana Harbor with death of 266 sailors. Under president McKinley the US with Commodore Dewey took Manila Bay in the Philippines and Havana and Santiago in Cuba. The Treaty of Paris in 1898 giving US authority over Cuba and the Philippines, and Puerto Rico, was passed with only one vote in the Senate showing how much the issue was debated in the US. The foresight of Teddy Roosevelt and Cabot Lodge for a base in the Pacific at Manila Bay, and Hawaii, can be seen in how the US first resisted European colonization in China under president Wilson in 1913-1921, and fought Japanese colonization in China under Gen. Stilwell and Gen MacArthur in the FDR years 1932-44.     ...

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Liz Whitehurst is one of many young people who are giving up jobs in offices to take to farming. They are not from farm families and bring a new way and exciting way of looking at farming free of the pesticides and other practices common today. Only 2% of U.S. land is being used for growing fruits and vegetables, according to the Union of American Scientists cited in the Guardian newspaper, and this needs to at least double in acreage if American needs are to be met. Only 15% of Americans get the daily requirement for fruits and vegetables- so desperately needed is this  to lower the BMI of the 70% of overweight Americans with BMI over 50. In the light of this crisis the shift of young people to farming is an encouraging sign.  In 2015 Liz, 32 years, decided to buy a 3 acre farm in Upper Marboro, Md, giving up benefits and better pay at nonprofit jobs in Washington state.  Here she is shown picking up Aragula leaves in the November chill. She is not alone. She is joining a movement that is bringing highly educated, former urban first time farmers as the demand for better food, for local and sustainable food, especially fruits and vegetables grows in the U.S. Year on Year there is a 20% increase of farmers in states like California, Nebraska, South Dakota in the 25-34 age group. In the 2014 USDA Census this group is growing at 2-3% just when other groups are shrinking by double digits. These farmers are more likely to connect with the community supported agriculture (CSA) prorams and markets, to grow organically and limit pesticide and fertilizer use. They tend to have farms less than 50 acres. Liz leases the house and the fields from a neighboring couple in the 70's, growing organically certified peppers, cabbages, tomatoes and salad greens kale to aragula, rotating fields. On Tues, Thurs. and Fri. she and two friends are to be seen waking up in the early hours of darkness to kneel in mud and cut the greens. What motivates them is having a positive impact, to do that so it is immediate and you can see it making a difference, says Liz. Still young farmers face many hurdles, including student loan debt, and finding ways to meet the larger needs for online grocery service or the grocery chains. Yet a trend is taking shape for small and middle farms that provides some optimism as the number of farmers shrink significantly overall. Most alarmingly it is the lack of national and local policies to meet the health crisis of rising BMI's right at this level of local farms and community farms for local produce. Lack of any consciousness about this, even though good health in the U.S. as in other countries has always rested on what you are eating, long before processed foods became the norm this is the way the world met nutrition needs.    ...

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Fiat under Sergio Marchionne has come a long way since he joined in June 2004, and has since executed a most remarkable recovery. At the time he joined in 2004, Fiat was only using 70% of its 2.5 million capacity. Now by 2010 Fiat expects to make 3.5 million vehicles. At the time debt was 4.4 billion euros and cash flow was draining at a rapid rate. The $2 billion from GM as part of their agreement, came in handy to make several new car models. But Marchionne had to start with a whole new team, and tear up the old ways of doing business and the old hierarchy and management. He put a group of younger managers in charge, and brought in a style that was open honest and straight talking, with plenty of direct communication. By 2007 on the back of the Punto and the Fiat 500 and the Bravo and other new models, Fiat had made a record profit of 3.2 billion euros while eliminationg its industrial debt. Its a new way of doing business in Italy. Marchionne had moved quickly and decisively in making changes at Fiat. He flattened out the structure, and gave a small number of younger people the freedom to take the initiative. He also put the former design chief of Pininfarina in charge, and brought all the designers together in Turin's Mirafiori complex in Oficina 83. He put design at the core of the manufacturing process, and cut time to build new models for the Bravo and Fiat 500 from design freeze to production to 18 months from 26, by relying entirely on computer simulations and not building any prototypes. He also gave designers freedom, and took risks when it came to styling to come up with really original and exceptional designing. He also continued developing Fiat's advantage in fuel efficiency of its engines, so that its engines have lower average emissions than any competitor. On the other hand Fiat has been slow to take advantage of the growth in emerging markets in India, China and Russia. Russia for instance will soon become the largest market in Europe, larger than Germany. Fiat shows that the right manager can and does make a difference between disaster and making a big success. Alitalia is now in the situation that Fiat was then, it isstruggling to find its future. With Chrysler's collapse in the US, and the efforts to revive Chrysler, these are lessons applicable in the US also. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

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This is an high exceptional report in the NYT by Rosenthal, Fitzsimmons and Laforgia on the crumbling infrastructure in the U.S., taking the New York subway system as one of the most glaring examples of this failure of public administration since World War II. The woes of the system amount to a kind of defunding of the subway system for update, maintenance and technological improvement to meet the doubled ridership since 1950. Read this to understand why this is happening throughout the U.S. for clues to the possible causes, and what needs to be done. As this is now in the hands of ordinary citizens who suffer daily from the inefficiencies, delays, and rundown conditions on the subways compared to other subway systems in Europe, Japan and China. One report in the media in Nov. 2017 says Japan's Shinkansen railways apologized to customers for a train leaving 24 seconds early. Small details get accounted for in other countries, whereas they are ignored here in one of the largest cities in the world. A former New York transit system president from the 1970's calls it "heartbreaking" making him mad when he thinks about what is happening in the way New York subways are run. Financial deals have saddled the New York subway system with added $5 billion in interest on debt in return for  short term cash infusion. The result is that about 17% of the budget goes to paying interest on debt. In 1997 this was about 6%. So that needed maintenance and capital projects suffer. The New York subway system has only a 65% on time record,  the worst of any subway system in the world. And technology dates back to the 1930's with a signals system from that period,  says this New York Times report. Maintenance needs have suffered under the Cuomo administration says this report.  The system has suffered an enormous stagnation, leaving it in a shape that has not changed for decades. There are fewer miles of track than in 1950 after the war, while the ridership of 5.7 million today has doubled. The budget for maintenance has barely budged from 25 years ago. This report says the politicians who ran the city and the state of New York bear much of the responsibility for the crumbling infrastructure of the subways in New York.   ...

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Einsinger points out that Treasury Geithner's performance reflects the mindset of U.S. president Obama, reflected also in Obama's other appointments in his administration which favored one group over another. Change that Obama talked about in the 2008 election campaign that propelled his candidacy, turned out to be more at the margins than change and action that reflected a vision of the priorities for America's middle class and vast majority of average Americans. By leaving homeowners to a wave of foreclosures, the administration weakened a middle class at the lower end already hit by the lower wages from globalization in manufacturing, other changes in the global economy, high levels of student debt of over $1 trillion, and the lasting damage to unemployment from the global financial crisis.

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Dexia, the Belgian-French bank, reported a net loss of 11.64 billion euros for 2011, including 4.05 billion euros from selling Dexia Bank Belgium to the Belgian government in Oct 2011, and a 3.36 billion euro loss on Greek government bond holdings as a result of restructuring of Greece's debt. Other losses were 2.6 billion euros from an acceleration of the sale of a portfolio of U.S. mortgage backed securities, and about 1 billion euros from the sale of the Paris based public finance business to savings banks operated by the French government. Dexia ends up with a negative total equity of 320 million euros at the end of 2011. Dexia was one of the hardest hit European banks in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

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Heizo Takenaka, head of the supervising agency for banks in Japan under prime minister Koizumi, took strong action to get banks to disclose the full extent of bad loans. This was needed to repair the banking system as piecemeal efforts had failed from 1996 to 2002. Takenaka says he realized that the economy could not recover with stimulus efforts until the banking system was cleared of bad debt and functioned normally to lend to business and consumers. He tells the NYT's Tabuchi that he stood firm and told the banks he was not ready for negotiation even when the banks called him absurd. He describes his experience with the banks, and says he cannot understand why the U.S. is not taking firm action with the banks.

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Under a plan called "premium support" Paul Ryan's U.S. budget proposal would have seniors choose a private insurance plan from a federally operated exchange. Each year the government would pay private insurers a specific amount to cover the cost of premiums with the rest borne by seniors. The total amount paid by the government would go up only at the rate of overall inflation, it would not go up at the higher rate of health care inflation. By doing this the government would take off the trillions of dollars of projected spending on health care that are largely the result of the higher inflation rate in health care costs. This higher inflation rate on health care costs is something that both parties have failed to control, and remains a major weakness in all health care proposals to date, including the Obama health care legislation. Allowed to continue growing at this rate when U.S. debt to GDP is nearing 100%, health care inflation costs pose major risks to the nation's finances.

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In this look at China's One Belt One Road Inititative, DW.com analyst Siegfried Wolf is critical of the way it was put together. It has no institutional structure, and is mostly based on bilateral not multilateral arrangement, and lacks transparency. He says its will complicate geopolitics in the region. This is already evident with Japanese foreign minister Kono calling for Japan, Australia, India and the U.S. to come up with an alternative to OBOR. Wolf says the EU has concerns about corruption, exclusion of regions inside countries such as Pakistan in economic arrangements, and seeks free trade guarantees. His biggest criticism of the Silk Road Initiative is that being based on Chinese loans it will pose a severe challenge in terms of debt buildup for weaker economies. This was already evident with the effort to convert part of about $6 billion in loans to Sri Lanka, through a $1.12 billion lease to China of the port of Hambantota. Wolf says many of the projects inside OBOR were already planned before it was setup, and now put under OBOR as part of president Jinping's initiative.  ...

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Hungary has only 17 billion euros of foreign exchange reserves but has to repay 27 billion euros to foreigners in the next 12 months, accordin to Barclays Capital. Hungary may need help from the IMF or the EU. Most Hungarians borrowed in Us dollars and Swiss francs and now that the currency has lost 21% ofits value just this month repayment is getting harder. As investors withdraw money from emerging markets the value of their currencies is dropping quickly. Even increasing interest rates is not helping as Hungary raised rates from 8.5% to 11.5% but the foriint dropped a further 3% on October 22, 2008. The Ukrainian, Polish and Turkish currencies have all seen a declilne of 20-30% in a few months and this makes debt burdens harder to repay. Hungary, Poland and Turkey all ran up large foreign debt in recent years when credit was easy.

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ICBC's strong performance is largely because of the leadership of Jiang Jiangqing. Jinagqing was reluctant to engage in the large scale lending encouraged by the government during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. For this reason he is not popular with the leadership in the government and the Communist party. This could change considering the large number of loans from that period which are expected to go sour in coming years. The U.S., Spain, U.K. and other countries suffered from the effects of bad loans in the banking system and experts say China is not likely to be an exception. Especially considering the excessive lending during that period and slowing growth in China. When this happens Jianqing's banking skills and conservative approach is likely to gain increasing respect within China. Jiangqing has expressed the view that the last thing China needed was to go back to the situation in 2000 when China's banking system was weighed down with bad debt. One has only to look at the change in Spain where once respected senior IMF officials like Rodrigo Rato are now looked at very differently. Jianging's push for expansion overseas- so that ICBC does not end up being a regional bank- is not viewed favorably by the government, which looks for a domestic focus. ...

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A worldwide trend to shorter term borrowing means that institutions and sovereign governments will compete in the capital markets, as they try to roll over existing borrowing by 2012. The US has $1.3 trillion to roll over by 2012. Worldwide about $5 trillion has to be rolled over, and of this $2.6 trillion is in Europe. With the European financial crisis which started in Greece it is becoming harder for sovereign governments to borrow in capital markets at favorable rates. A former economist of the Bank of England says this is of the highest importance for lending and for growth. The implications are reduced lending by banks to businesses and consumers, reducing output and growth, and limiting reductions in unemployment. It is a big issue say analysts, as debt needs to be rolled over over shorter periods. Moody's study shows new bond issues by banks during the last 5 years matured at an average 4.7 years. The stress say experts is likely to be on the less healthy banks like the savings banks in Spain, Landesbanks in Germany. Stress tests on European banks will be out July 23, 2010....

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Tourism is boosting the economies of southern Europe. The tourist economy is ultra competitive in places such as Lisbon and Madrid because the  debt crisis of Spain, Portugal, Greece has led to devaluing their currencies with the US dollar. There are more American tourists in Portugal than Spanish tourists who are attracted by lower cost vacations. Europe now generates $500 million dollars from tourism one third of total tourist dollars worldwide. Portugal's economy is growing at 8%. This WSJ report looks at tourism in Portugal. It also raises questions about Southern Europe's overdependence on tourism industry which is cyclical.

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VW bonds take a big hit following the emissions scandal. The annual cost of insuring 10 million euros of VW debt against default for five years is 214,000 euros. VW's cash flow after dividends is estimated at 5 billion euros by Fitch in 2016-2017. What is happening to VW goes beyond the emissions scandal. The overly easy environment for corporate borrowing with the loose monetary policy in Europe and the U.S. has made it easy for corporate borrowers to raise money at really low rates. This environment is about to change with VW being the beginning of a shift. In January 2015 VW raised 1 billion euros, with a 15 year bond and interest rate of 1.625%. This bond has dropped in price to 85.6% of face value.

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Key Indian projects in Sri Lanka or Ceylon are the Kankesanthurai harbor in northern Sri Lanka and the Ind0-Japanses East Container Terminal at Colombo port. In Maldives it is the Greater Male Connectivity Port.With its expertise and leadership in solar energy India is also launching solar initiatives in Sri Lanka. India has focused efforts on developing human capital and employment intensive sectors. This contrasts with the non concessional loans that finance infrastructure projects often with Chinese labor that do not generate the jobs Sri Lanka or Ceylon so desperately needs. Earlier period of Chinese infrastructure projects led to the debt trap with building of Hambantota port and facilities which Sri Lanka could not effectively utilize, and led to buildup of interest on loans. Sri Lanka now has the opportunity to make a new beginning as part of the SAGAR (Security and Economic Cooperation for All). The whole range of intitiatives in many areas show India's long experience in working with Sri Lanka since 1900 when early development projects were initiated. India has a long list of projects to help Sri Lanka keep up with India in its development- two education tourism projects, ITEC Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation, and Technology Adoption Project. This opens a new path for Sri Lanka to make steady progress on a wide range of projects for the next 10 years for sustainable development. As India grows this will expand the range of possibilities for Sri Lanka that it could never achieve on its own. Many new projects can also be done with the economic cooperation and assistance of UK, U.S. Japan and India to broaden the range of possibilities and financing. ...

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Chris Buckley in the NYT today makes no mention of the Bo Xilai episode in 2012 and what this meant for Xi's future policy actions. Cheng Li calls it the most significant happening since the Lin Biao incident in 1971 and Tianmen in 1989. Brookings Institution offers this discussion of the Bo Xilai episode with Cheng Li, China expert on its economic and political elites. Cheng Li rejected the idea that China at the time in 2012 reflected "resilient authoritarianism," instead anticipating problems such as Bo Xilai emerging as a demagogue putting China in an ultranationalist and uncertain direction. This happened during the transition to a new team of leaders led by Xi Jinping in 2012. Xi could see the corruption in the CCP and the hypergrowth in China causing problems of irreparable environmental damage (now climate change), regional inequality, and offering an opening for demagogues to step into this mix of problems. Xi  acted devising policy shifts away from Hu Jintao and Wen Biao of the Bush-Paulsen era and pushing away from focus on rapid growth, shifting to counter inequality, unstable dependence on construction and housing, and excessive debt of that period. Little mention is given to this in NYT Chris Buckely's version of US-China relations in today's NYT (November 13, 2023). ...

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Lawrence Katz, Harvard labor economist, talks to Friedman about the jobs crisis in the U.S.. Katz identifies three jobs crises occurring at the same time today. One is the drop in the demand for goods and services that resulted from the longer term effects of the financial crisis of 2008, with rising foreclosures, weak housing markets, bad debt on the balance sheets of banks, and interest rates at close to zero reducing the scope of action by the Federal Reserve bank. The second, is the widespread long term unemployment with workers dropping out of the labor market. The third, is the nature of new factories and hiring. Work in new factories is done through increased automation, information technology and fewer workers. As a result job creation is a fraction of what it was in the past. Not mentioned here is the shrinking of the public sector under the strain of budget deficits for local, state and federal government. This leads to the question of how America will create jobs in the future. Katz believes the answer is creating more "hubs," networked urban areas like Austin, Silicon Valley, and Raleigh-Durham, by bringing together universities, high-tech manufacturers, software providers, and startup companies, to cooperate in creating new products that enhance people's lives worldwide. This has to be done by the private sector and government working together to build the infrastructure and make the investments in education, training of workers, and equipment for new job creation....

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U.S. unemployment declined to 7.7% in November 2012 from 7.9% the prior month, with 146,000 jobs created, according to the Labor Dept. The rate for the prior two months was revised downward by 49,000 jobs. The labor force dropped by 350,000 jobs, with fewer people looking for work, which suggests continued problems in finding jobs. The number of people saying they had a job fell by 122,000. The retail sector added 53,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality 23,000 and professional and business services 43,000.

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Analysts and experts says Turkey faces a debt bubble like that facing Spain and Ireland. The budget deficits in Spain and Ireland were considered manageable before the banking crises in the two countries. Turkey's short term borrowing- most of the $221 billion in outside financing needed for the private sector in 2013 is in short term loans. The large current account deficit and rate of growth in credit approaching IMF warning indicators are a problem. Volatile capital inflows could reverse as investors look for safe havens with the continuing street protests in Istanbul. Earlier currency crises in 1993 and 2001 were currency crises from volatile capital inflows. Turkey's central bank is trying to manage this situation and has $100 billion in currency reserves. But it is the hidden buildup of external debt by banks and companies in Turkey that worries analysts like Richard Segal at Jefferies bank in London. A $400 billion public spending plan, over 50% of Turkey's $770 billion GDP, is being prepared by the Erdogan government for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state in 1923, showing that the scale of public spending is not under control. Analysts say at some point the huge credit bubble will burst, as it has in other countries including Spain, where the central bank appeared to have things under control. The street protests add political risk to the increasing risk for emerging markets with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift to increasing interest rates....

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Prince Salman's efforts to launch an IPO of Saudi Arabian National Oil Company faces resistance from Saudi bureaucrats. Prince Salman wants to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenue, and hoped to use the IPO generated $100 billion to make investments in other industries. Saudi technocrats see risks in the plan- as costing consumers billions of dollars in higher gasoline prices, legal risks and public scrutiny. The IPO has been pushed back to 2021. Large new investments such as solar generation hub also face passive resistance in the bureaucracy. New investments policies have led to a Saudi recession in 2017, and reduced investment and consumer spending. Prince Salman sees it differently, once telling Theresa May of Britain that even if he got 50 of the 100 things he wanted done, that would be 50 not done otherwise. Salman has a disdain for the bureaucracy and has tight control over the country. He has led popular social changes such as letting women drive and taking away the power of religious police to make arrests. The Economy Minister has slowed down a plan to sell state assets such as government owned hospitals,airports, because conditions are not ideal. A plan to invest $7 billion in Uber was shelved. Aramco chairman Mr. Falih has reduced the size of investmetns including for the solar energy generation project. A plan to have ARAMCO listed on the New York Stock Exchange preferred by Prince Salman has been changed with advisers suggesting the London Stock Exchange as a place with lower risks of law suits under U.S. tort laws. Saudi executives at ARAMCO also pointed out that to reach the $2 trillion valuation that the Prince has in mind for ARAMCO the company would have to sell gasoline to Saudis at market rates, tripling oil prices in the kingdom -costing consumers $98 billion. The advisers believe it is more prudent financially to raise debt. Under that plan ARAMCO could raise debt to buy the Public Investment Fund's (PIF) 70% stake in state owned chemicals company Saudi Basic Industries Corp. which would infuse PIF with $70 billion, almost as much as generated by a IPO for ARAMCO. On solar energy Mr. Falih lowered the plan from 1500 gigawatts to 200 at a cost of $200 billion. Under a new plan this is at 60 gigawatts from solar and wind with 70% produced by the Public Investment Fund, the state's investment fund.   ...