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As part of the trade deal with the Trump administration China agreed to buy $54 billion of oil and liquified natural gas from the U.S. by the end of 2021. This is showing up in U.S. oil making up 7% of China's imports by mid September 2020 from 0.4% in January. By the endo of October forecasts show U.S. exporting 700,000 barrels a day to China. The U.S. is displacing Saudi and Middle East oil as Saudi exports now make up 15% of China's oil imports from 19%. This also shows that president Trump's trade deals are working to help balance trade with China and remove the disadvantageous position the U.S. was placed in by three previous administrations.

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How crude oil flows are affected by the narrow waterway Straits of Hormuz if blocked, Kuwait's lack of storage, Iraqi production going from 4.3 million barrels a day to 1.3 million. China could use more coal, it has 300 days of oil inventory, US is self sufficient. Asia will have problems- India, Japan and South Korea.  Europe also faces a shortage of oil supplies. How will this be tackled? 

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The kind of early effort needed to control the public health crisis of the coronavirus. Steps taken in Washington State on social distancing and action underway in the U.S. so that a proactive approach takes place, acting early and decisively.

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WSJ describes the role of U.S. Attorney General Barr working with president Lopez Obrador of Mexico in strengthening Mexican law enforcement, increased border checks to prevent heavy weapons trafficking, and making the changes in the legal system that would help extradition to the U.S. After a period in which Mr. Obrador vacillated in his approach for tackling migration he deployed the Mexican National Guard on the border with Guatemala. Mr. Barr met twice with Mr. Obrador to get Mexico's close cooperation to combat the opioid crisis in the U.S. After a new North American trade deal was signed into law to replace NAFTA Mexico is working closely with the Trump administration in a number of areas after initial disagreements. After the death of U.S. citizens in Mexico in an ambush in November president Trump called for designating the groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Mexico is now making changes for law enforcement and says it is doing so in Mexico's own interests. ...

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China based appliance maker Haier which owns GE Appliances will invest $3 billion in US factories starting in 2025.

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The U.S. responds to criticism by opening a humanitarian trade channel to Iran. This permits tade in medical supplies, agricultural commodities and basic necessities without risking U.S. sanctions penalties. Swiss based firms are allowed to use the process setup by the U.S.

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DJT will meet EU's Von der Leyen in Scotland to iron out differences remaining to get to a US EU Trade Deal. Following the one with the UK and Japan this would be a signifcant win for the president and show that his tariff policies are working when flexibility is added and negotiations are speeded up. It also benefits European relations with the US on many fronts, not just in talk as has happened before but in real improvements in sharing of responsibilities.

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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1.2-2 million barrels a day go from Iran's Kharg island through Straits of Hormuz for ship to ship transfers in South China Sea, then labeled Emirati oil and unloaded at refineries on Shandong coast. These refineries are called teapot refineries. In this way US sanctions are avoided. Shipments of oil were about 700,000 barrels a day before 2023. After 2023 this more than doubled. China gets this at a 10-15%  discount costing Iran about a third of revenues it would otherwise be able to sell this oil if it decided to work with the US in a new arrangement. This report in FR24 shows China as limiting it's relations with Iran to oil, careful to not let it affect more important trading relations with US European Union, and Germany. This is similar to the situation for Venezuela -which under a new arrangement the US has with Venezuela- now gets market prices for its oil increasing it's revenues substantially by about one third to benefit the Venezuelan people suffering from high inflation and economy wrecked by sanctions. ...

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A country smaller than the US state of Connecticut will host the first World Cup Soccer games in the Arab world from November 21 to December 18. England will play US , the day after Thanksgiving.

Group A  Netherlands with Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal

Group B   England with Iran, US, Wales or Scotland/Ukraine

Group C.  Argentina with Saudi, Mexico, Poland

Group D   France with Peru, Australia/United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Tunisia

Group E  Spain, Germany, Japan with Costa Rica or New Zealand

Group F  Belgium with Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G.  Brazil with Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H   Portugal with Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea 

Defending champion France has it better in its group. 

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With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

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President Trump extends the U.S. lockdown for social distancing till April 30, on the advice of health experts. China meanwhile resumes industrial production and schools reopen. Factories, offices and retail outlets were shutdown for 2 months nearly nationwide in China. The U.S. has a social distancing lockdown not a complete quarantine of hotspots such as New York, New Jersey. Mr. Trump planned to quarantine New York but faced opposition from the governors of New York and New Jersey, including possible legal challenges. U.S. governors have acted imposing travel restrictions to their states from hotspots in other places in the country, forcing people traveling to self-isolate, stopping vehicles with out of state license plates and asking them to stay away. The U.S. cases have jumped from 100 in early March to 143,000 as of March 28, 2020, and 2514 deaths, according to John Hopkins. New estimates from president Trump and his team of experts are for the peak to be reached by April 15, and recovery gradually taking place by June 1, 2020. Based on the timeline in China shown below the time from the first set of 27 cases by December 15 to March 28 when China's factories were back to work and schools reopened across the country, is a period of 75 days. Based on this president Trump's timeline of June 1 for recovery has some foundation. China quarantined strictly compared to the U.S. yet in the early days it had no warning which the U.S. had in particular from Italy. The Trump administration by extending social distancing and lockdown restrictions till April 30 without a strict quarantine of the East coast areas yet with states outside imposing their own restrictions for outsiders, is doing what other countries such as China, South Korea, have to control this epidemic. The first coronavirus case was reported on November 17, 2019 according to the South China Morning Post, By December 15, the number of cases had reached 15. On December 27 on a single day 180 cases were recorded and the Head of the Respiratory Department at Hubei Provincial Hospital reported this to health authorites in China, according to the South China Morning Post, based on data collected in China.   ...

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Exceptional reporting in the Washington Post on the meddling in the U.S. election by Russia and president Putin. This report provides some inside details on how the issue was handled by Trump during the period before and after the election based on 50 interviews with Trump connected officials. According to the report Trump treated any thought that he was elected by factors other than his charisma and personality as an affront. When confronted with evidence from intelligence reports by U.S. spy chiefs on Jan. 6 at Trump Tower, Trump railed at the idea that he could not have won the election without outside help. Trump's larger than life personality made him take on the challenge of winning the president from outside with unconventional tactics. Here the same larger than life personality and ego conflicts with the effort of Republican advisers who sought to put the Russian issue behind them by accepting the findings of the intelligence community.

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US crude oil futures for November delivery reach about $94 a barrel by September 27. Oil prices are up 30% since June 2023.

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China's consumer spending with its reopening won't match the pandemic end period US spending surge, says this report in WSJ.

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The global economic map is rapidly redrawing bringing US and Europe closer. The US has imported more goods from Europe this year than from China. In September alone says WSJ Germany exported 50% more goods to the US year over year with the weaker euro increasing the momentum. European FDI foreign direct investment in the US increased by 13.5% in 2021 to $3.2 trillion. US FDI to Europe increased by 10% to $4 trillion. There is a push on both sides of the Atlantic to increase local manufacturing, and to increase trade, and shift supply chains away from the overdependence on China.  

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The US budget deficit for 2022 comes down to $1.4 trillion in 2022 from $2.6 trillion in 2021 after end of much emergency pandemic spending.

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US and Chinese trade negotators vice premier Lifeng for China and Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, Jamieson Greer USTR, meet in Switzerland, for talks on tariffs of 145% and 125% on each others goods. An agreement for a 90 day pause is reached. During that pause period tariffs will be 30% by the US, and 10% by China on imported goods. The 30% tariff of the US includes the original 10% tairff on all nations and the 20% tariff for China not doing enough to stop flow of fentanyl  into the US. China says it now recognizes the seriousness of the damage to communities in the US from fentanyl.

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US inflation eases to 7.1% in November after the aggressive action by the US Fed under Jay Powell. The Labor Department reported that the CPI index was up 7.1% over a year ago. It peaked at 9.1% in June and was up 7.7% in October 2022. Gasoline prices which peaked at $5.26 a gallon in June are now at $3.50. Supply bottlenecks in June have also eased. Economists say there is still more room for inflation to fall as housing prices moderate and supply chains return to normal. A tight labor market and consumer purchases with higher wages have also fueled inflationary price increases.

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The US president tells the King it was special that all members of Congress stood up for a standing ovation many times- something that in recent years rarely happens. The King "has shown his class" in the last 24 hours says BBC, it is now up to Starmer and the British government, DJT and the Americans to make it count. Notable DJT sharing that the King agreed with him that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. The King also talked about the NATO alliance and its role in keeping the peace for 80 years in the world. In the King's words-  "the international rules that have allowed us to trade and have kept power in balance for 80 years." Adding that the US should not go it alone- "The challenges we face are too great for any one nation to bear alone." However the King is only doing what his is role as monarch to present British interests, and it is important to recall that Britain's interests were once colonial interests around the world, that opposition to these colonial interests led to the Declaration of Independence by Jefferson and Washington in 1776. And caution in Washington's advice to America in Annual messages when it comes to these Empires. Right after 1945 when NATO was created- as it was throughout its Empire in Asia  in 1750-1950- Britain opposed Russia and was the most vocal opponent of Soviet Russia in 1950's and saw NATO in this mission. Times have changed with the emergence of Russia after 1990, China in 1950 and again in 1990's, and America as a world power is best following Washington's advice not to get involved in or inherit the British anti-Russian attitude as it has interests in the Western hemisphere and around the world that require cooperation with other world powers such as Russia, China, India, and Germany to create a peaceful world  and not the kind we have today that puts Russia and China on the wrong side just for opposition, as no powers have any interest in drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere form places like Mexico and Venezuela, or creating small wars in other parts of the world. A situation NATO as seen by Britain in 1950 as Anti-Russian creates for the US- Lord Hastings Ismay first Secretary General of NATO set British goal for NATO (not the US interests or consistent with George Washington's advice to distance from) in 1949 as "Keep the Russian Out, the US Involved, and the Germans Down." ...

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US to take stakes in American companies to help them achieve goals of Make in America with Intel stake the first action. The $8.9 billion Biden intended for Intel to make chips in the US will be handed over to Intel but for a stake in the company of 10%. For years Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and China have subsidized their companies in different and some hidden ways. Many times these companies have sustained losses as they built for the long term in volatile market situations. Nvidia now a trillion dollar company was at one time a company struggling to survive saved only by a Japanese corporate investor as shown in a recent WSJ report. The US has taken no such action losing its dominant position in many advanced industries including chips till the Biden and DJT administrations. Yet the media keeps voicing the old ideas of market capitalism as if there is such a thing when state capitalism operates with market capitalism in the Chinese model, and a form of semi state capitalism operates with market capitalism in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan with hidden subsidies by the state to build dominant positions in certain industrial sectors. Even US companies are willing to take such subsidies as when Elon Musk builds car plants in China with state assistance and support, which never comes up in the media even when the Chinese EV makers are learning from the Americans and Tesla is losing market share in China. Theory is for the textbooks and economists,  in business all forms of capitalism work including a mix of state and market, and America has to invent its way back to lead the way in advanced industries.  ...

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Novavax gets $1.6 billion to deliver 100 million doses of vaccines for use in the U.S. possibly by end of 2020. Regneron gets $450 million federal contract for vaccine  development.

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Even today mask use can vary widely in the U.S. as seen in this map from the NYT. After repeated surge across the U.S. from the northeast to the south and west mask use has increased in the U.S. Texas has made it mandatory and president Trump wore a mask at Walter Reed Army hospital. Ypu.gov and other surveys show mask use as high as 80%, not universal as health agencies want to see, higher than Canada, Finland or Denmark.

Other factors such as gatherings at beaches, restaurant and bars, and earlier sport stadiums gatherings are additional factors for a surge. Young people's cooperation has lagged behind accounting for about 50% of cases in some southern states recently being among young people.

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Asymptomatic people infected by coronavirus are acting as spreaders of the coronaavirus making it more essential than ever that everyone wear masks. This is a widely accepted practice in Asia- wearing masks to prevent others from getting a virus. This now needs badly to become the practice in the U.S. and Europe. The longer it is delayed the worse the crisis can get and the longer it takes to eradicate it. Even low grade cotton masks are useful as is the practice in Asian countries. It is now part of the new guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control in the U.S. This needs to be adopted as safe practice everywhere.

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German Foreign Minister Wadephul is interviewed by Nina Haase of the DW.com. She asks him what he thinks of Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference in Feb. 2026. Wadephul says this is also the policy of Germany, that the US and Germany have a lot of common ground. Rubio spoke of cultural bonds, of Christianity, and of the common ground shared with Europe. Wadephul sees a lot of positive ground which he calls, is saying to Germany- we did it in the past in the cold War with the Iron Curtain coming down in the 1950's and that was a success including reunification of Germany. Now as Wadephul sees it the US is saying "lets do it again." What about climate and Ukraine. Wadephul says on Ukraine Germany is in agreement that more pressure needs to be put on Russia, including on India in negotiations to reduce funding of Russia. On climate he says that the US is saying- be flexible which is what Germany agrees with. On migration Wadephul says other European governments are taking the approach to migration the the US and Germany agree with. ...