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As the ECB reduces its monthly purchases under its QE program to 60 billion euros from 80 billion euros starting in April 2017, the initial market reaction was that quantitative easing was going out. This says Barley is not the case, and markets are overreacting. The ECB is now ready to buy bonds yielding less than the deposit rate. The ECB promised to extend purchases to Dec. 2017 or further. Look deeper says Barley and ECB forecasts headline inflation at 1.7% in 2019, less than 2% target. So continued QE made sense but at a lower pace. In the end it is the flow that matters not the stock of purchases, says Barley.

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Kristof of the NYT says the narrative about Hillary Clinton being dishonest is clearly overdone and inaccurate. He says the gaffes about the use of personal email server have unfairly created a distorted narrative. On changing positions on trade and minimum wage- this happens frequently with all the candidates. Some are glib enough for not being noticed, Clinton not a natural politician drawing attention. On Libya, and on Syria, Clinton is blamed for the President's errors and not given credit for pushback in league with Panetta, Gen. Kean and Gen. Jones, that has influenced changes made in 2016, and the president accepting blame for errors. In this instance Clinton has been far from shifty by publicly allying herself with Leon Panetta's position in "Worthy Fights," and Gen. Jones's remarks. Far from having erred on Libya and Syria policy, Hillary Clinton, like Chuck Hagel and others in the administration including Joe Biden, showed exceptional patience in dealing with the president, national security advisor, and McDonough in policy matters- when they were right but the country was weary of what were seen as futile global engagements in remote areas setting too high a bar for any action. Clinton rightly described this as a pendulum swinging too far in the opposite direction after the Bush/Cheney years. On young women and being "progressive" Hillary Clinton is from a older generation that experienced the kind of discrimination that young women fail to grasp, according to a recent analysis of University of Massachusetts polling survey results cited in the Washingon Post. A PolitiFact Pulitzer winning fact checking site shows 50% of the Clinton statments are either true or mostly true, compared to 49% for Bernie Sanders, 9 percent for Trump, 22% for Ted Cruz, and 52% for John Kasich. ...

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Zelensky opposes ceding Crimea to Russia. The only way to peace is to recognize status quo borders because it is unlikely to change given the stalemate in the war. Ukraine says the US needs to recognize the situation is unlikely to change, and achieve peace with assurances and safeguards that prevent a return to war.

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Comey James was once FBI Director before controversies. 

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Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar visits Ahmedabad for the introduction of the new Gujarati language edition of his book, The India Way- Strategies for an Uncertain World. At the meeting to take questions on the Gujarati edition at IIM Ahmedabad,  Jaishankar said India is now the fifth largest economy in the world. During the Nehru period it was the 20th largest economy in the world. It now has the capacity to take a leading part in world affairs. In a few years by 2030 India is expected to become the third largest economy in the world. And with its economy integrated into that of the US economy in a way that no other economy has been it will make the US-India economy by far the largest of any economic combination in the world. Because both are English speaking and both are modern democracies, and the traditions of Lincoln and Mohandas Gandhi, of St Paul and the Vedanta with Buddhism deeply rooted in each country. This is the true meaning of the Indo-Pacific. As Jaishankar pointed out in Ahmedabad there is no point in the water that says here is where the Pacific starts- that is the reality. Once you are in the Indian Ocean east of Africa you can travel on the ocean all the way past India to Indonesia, the Japanese Islands and the Hawaiian Islands till you reach the western shores of the United States. For India, the US and Australia, and Japan this is the ocean pathways that they are committed to keep open and with the international rule of law for all nations. In renewable energy, in climate change action, in managing soil and water, in agricultural innovation, and in technologies of all kinds India can now lead the way. Scientific curiosity, learning curve, manufacturing and innovation, education that brings new skills for a large workforce, India can tap into the resources of the world and make its own contributions to this resource for all mankind.  ...

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Moritz Schuller of Tassspiegel writes a moving story in BBC News about Helmut Kohl, former chancellor of Germany, who died at the age of 87. Kohl helped bring chancellor Merkel to prominence by appointing her to positions in his government, first as Minister of Women and Youth in 1991, and then as Minister for the Environment in 1994. The two developed a bond that lasted. Merkel said on Kohl's 85th birthday -"Germany has much to thank him for."  Schuller presents a different side of Kohl in this article. There is this Kohl who had this tactical grasp of events as the Berlin Wall fell and German reunification was within reach. Who had this warm touch with other leaders, including a special relationship with French president Mitterand that advanced relations between the two countries. Yet he also describes the Kohl who was forgotten after being pushed out of office in a donations scandal. The rush to setup the eurozone currency and expanding it without the needed financial arrangements were seen by Germans as a weakness coming from the Kohl years in office. By 2008 Kohl had a debilitating fall and by this time was forgotten by Germans. Close to the end in 2014 at the Frankfurt Book Fair to present a book on his own view of the events of 1989-90, Kohl was seen as a frail figure, in a wheelchair and unable to speak much. ...

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VW which has failed to build market share in the US is leaving aside its appeal point of German engineering in 2023 and now selling itself as an American brand. VW has become dependent on China for half its sales and badly needs to avoid overconcentration in one country. It is trying to enter the SUV market with the Scout brand for buzz as an off road vehicle and will introduce 2 dozen models. Scout is a 4 wheel drive recreational vehicle designed in America for International Harvester, a company VW acquired in 1981 when it was called Navistar. It is a mashup of a World War II Willy Jeep and a pickup truck with its boxy shape. Half a million were sold from 1960 to 1980. With this plan VW with only 4.5%  of the American market is trying one more time, this time as a way out of overconcentration in China. Realizing that America is where the automobile entered mass production in the factories of Detroit. South Carolina's assembly has approved $1.3 billion to support VW in building a new plant near Columbia to build the Scout.   ...

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The federal government set up the National Capital Civil Services Authority for administering the national capital of New Delhi, India, similar to the way other capitals in the world Ottawa, Canberra, Berlin and Washington D.C are run. This was done by ordinance and will be followed up with legislation in parliament.

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David Ignatius reflects on the changes in Saudi Arabia under MBS particularly women's rights to education and participation in society, and women free to exercise fundamental rights. Kemal Ataturk brought these kinds of changes to Turkey in the 1920's, after Turkey's disastrous participation in the First World War and conflict with Greece and colonial powers. 

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District court Judges are the first tier of the three tiered system of judiciary power. A series of US District Judge rulings stop the federal payments system, birthright citizenship, federal employees offered buyout plan, and other executive orders issued by DJT in first 72 hours in office. They were all designed to cut the federal bureuacracy in the US and gut agencies with overspending such as USAID $40 billion when rural America's needs are unmet, and tackle birthright citizenship which allows mothers to fly into the US and depart just to get citizenship for children. The White House plans to appeal these rulings to the next level the appellate courts in the US, all the way to the US Supreme Court. Some of the arguments against USAID $40 billion budget was that it funded bureaucrats pet projects, something that Senators such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky have fought against for 25 years. Coming after trillions of dollars in spending under the infrastructure Investment Act oversight over such spending is in the American tradition. No less than Harry Truman as Senator from Missouri made his mark by tracking down overspending and waste, during the Second World War. Another problem not discussed enough is that in today's world more can be done with good governance and leadership, avoiding unneeded wars, and investment from India, China, EU and US than can be done with $40 billion spread thinly over the whole world. Sri Lanka is just one example where its undoing is waging ethnic war, corruption, and India is leading its recovery in ways that USAID could never do. ...

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U.S. President Richard Nixon adopted Keynesian policies to boost the economy after tightening monetary policy failed in 1970. In 1971 Nixon turned to higher fiscal spending to get the economy closer to full employment. He also adopted wage and price controls. By 1972 the economy had recovered, inflation was at 5.7% and unemployment at 4.9%, and Nixon won re-election. This was the only recovery in an election year since World War II. In international affairs Nixon's policy was to leave the Bretton Woods system and floating the dollar. With a new administration in 1974 inflation surged to 11% and unemployment to 5.6%, because wage and price controls worked only for a short period.

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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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In a major move president Biden backs suspending IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests. In fall 2020 India and South Africa submitted a resolution to WTO to suspend IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests, From the Indian perspective this decision comes a bit late when India has already vaccinated over 1 billion people using the Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine. The Oxford vaccine was made available to Indian manufacturing companies to make locally in a way the could be done at low cost to meet needs of over 1 billion people in India. From the perspective of pharmaceutical companies this is giving away technology even if this was a public health emergency, as shown in this editorial from WSJ.

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Tesla suffered from production issues in 2017 and CEO Musk was not his usual upbeat self.  In early 2018 Musk is back to his usual style predicting big things for Tesla. Just after his company Space Exploration Technologies sent a powerful rocket with a Tesla car into space,Musk predicted making one million vehicles a year in 2020. In 3 months he says a Tesla will cross the U.S. He says Tesla will now be able to make 5000 cars a week of the Model 3.

Another of his predictions is that he will revolutionize production systems and leap over existing car companies. Analysts asked Musk if the Toyota Production System had not already achieved that, Musk says "we don't think so." This report points to changing moods of Musk and periods when he feels high and low, and changing according to the unrelenting stress he finds himself in or indulges in.

 

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At a videoconference between DJT and European leaders on Aug. 14, 2025, initiated by Germany's Merz , it was decided that no territory exchanges are to be discussed at DJT Putin meeting in Alaska. DJT and the Europeans will simply seek an immediate ceasefire followed by talks between Zelensky and Putin with DJT offering to be there to mediate differences. DJT says there will be strong sanctions on Russia in the event no ceasefire is reached. Legislation in Congress with 80 senators on board a clear majority of both parties is for putting a 500% tariff on countries such as China and India that import Russian oil. These imports exceed $100 billion each for China and India. DJT has placed a 50% duty on India if negotiations do not yield results on this issue. This is seen in Congress as fueling the continuation of the Russian war in Ukraine.

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Russian view at SCO Summit-"A fair balance in the security sphere" meaning a fair settlement on the expansion of NATO and EU that may threaten Russia, something Northern Europeans have not settled.  Le Monde covers this side of the Summit at Tianjin, a coastal city near Beijing in northeastern China. Over long periods of European history since 1600 Northern Europe including UK, Sweden, Denmark, France, Poland and Germany have contended with Russia and seen purely from this perspective Russia sees itself as a Northern European power and seeks to protect it's interests. Britain, Sweden and France have for the most part been on the opposite side since 1600. US under a Republican administration, and this is not just DJT, sees the larger interests beyond Europe of Asia and the American continent in addition to Europe, and seeks a diplomatic way out of the war in Europe.

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Amy Chozick of the NYT describes the puzzling idea of a Methodist do-gooder, with serious concern for injustices in the South, making an effort to accumulate money. Especially considering that Hillary Clinton must have known that speechmaking fees would come up in a presidential election campaign. Chozick describes in some detail the two years Hillary tried to shore up the family's finances after Bill Clinton's defeat in the 1980 election for Governor. Following the defeat Bill Clinton went back all over the state to voters to hear their complaints, sometimes for hours at a time. It was upto Hillary to shore up the family's finances. Hillary had to stretch to buy a $112,000 home in a better residential neighborhood. Family friends say Bill was never that interested in money, and never worried about the family's finances. Things were so bleak according to this account that Hillary worried about how they would pay for daughter Chelsea's college tution, as her own mother's experience has always remained with her of being denied a college education because of lack of money. During the Democratic Convention this comes up in the video introduction, something that most people are unaware of, which must have been difficult for an intensely private person like Hillary. Her mother is described in that video as having to go to the corner grocery store as a child with coupons for food. The income of the Clintons as professors in the years around 1975 was $18,000 each. As governor Mr. Clinton earned $33,519 in 1978 with combined income at $51,173 adding Hillary's work at the Rose law firm. A one time deal in the commodities market made 100,000, and an investment in land in the Ozarks led to losses- all at a time when other highly educated people in Arkansas were doing extremely well, including the Walton family. It wasn't until 1992 when Bill Clinton was running for president did the couple make higher income of $297,177 reported in 1992 tax returns. At this time entering the White House, of recent presidents only Harry Truman had lower net worth. Hillary donated her book proceeds for "It Takes a Village," to charity, and turned down an advance. By the time they left office the couple were faced with legal debts, owing $5 million in legal fees- Hillary Clinton saying they were "Dead broke." The former president now sought help to buy a Dutch Colonial in Chappaqua, New York, for $1.7 million. President Jimmy Carter was also facing large losses in his peanut business in Georgia when he left office, only to turn to writing books to salvage his finances. Hoover, FDR, Kennedy, George Bush, George W. Bush, were from families with great wealth or built their fortunes, including candidate Trump, sometimes using influence or connections or in the case of Kennedy's family gaining from the end of Prohibition. Eisenhower, Reagan, Carter were of more modest wealth. Only Harry Truman remains the awesome exception of dignity with extremely modest wealth, a small house in Independence, Missouri, no presidential pension, only an army pension of $112.56 a month in 1953. Truman's story also offers another aspect of public service of an exceptional kind and its value to the country for people to reflect on. A presidential pension of $25,000 was set up one year after Truman left office.  Experts say Truman's Senate Committee over 8 years 1941-1948, helped save billions of dollars in waste, fraud, and in faulty airplane as well as munitions development during the war effort, including saving thousands of lives.  In his farewell address in January 1953, Truman said he had spent 17 hours a day for eight years with no payment for overtime. In the address he correctly predicts that the Cold War would be won and he set the course. It also happened as predicted in that address with changes in the Kremlin and failure in the satellite states. Hillary Clinton put in these 17 hours and gained unmatched experience as Secretary of State, and is in a positon to set the course ahead in a manner that Truman once did in a complex world where careful policy, good judgement and in some situations strong action is needed. Such invaluable public service has never really been rewarded in the way business leaders are, not by a small fraction - too long simply taken for granted.  Considering her life story Hillary Clinton appears to have struggled with this all her life, to create a safety net that too often cracked, sometimes suddenly and unexpectedly. Has this concern sometimes gone too far, could better judgement be exercized. Perhaps or probably. Should it be seen in the context that Truman's situation reminds us. Probably.         ...

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Merz popularity dips slightly as he brings up tough issues such as 4 days work weeks in Germany, Many working part time and CDU calling for restricting part time to workers giving care to elderly, childcare, and for education. The German welfare payments close to minimum wage was an issue in Germany but is declining in significance. Most significant today at 35% is the issue of social inequality. Taxes unfairly distributed at 13%, and the asylum seekers issue at 9% lower today by 2%. On the economy Merz pointed out that- "Prosperity cannot be maintained with a four-day work week and an exaggerated work-life balance." He also criticized the high number of sick leave days at 14.5 average days sick leave per employee per year. Polls in February 2026 show CDU at 26%, SPD at 15%, Greens at 12%, Left at 10%, AfD at 24%, FDP 3% BSW 3%. Popularity in Germany is highest for defense minister Pistorius and next comes foreign minister Wadephul. Merz is less popular but he is raising the tough issues and taking strong action compared to Merkel who was more interested in her personal popularity than what was good for Germany. Also not given credit for action is Merz removing constitutional brake on spending for investing in Germany's infrastructure and defense, and fixing problems left behind by Merkel who neglected infrastructure, digital economy, and defense. ...

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China's Industrial policy for everything- China's five year plans and way of doing business and manufacturing. China applies its 5 year soviet era style of planning to everything it makes. It also funnels incentives, and other benefits to industries to get fast growth.

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...

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Steps the US has taken to not let the war escalate even as it arms Ukraine to be able to defend itself. The goal being to defend Ukraine and seek a settlement as quickly as possible with Russia. Biden, Macron and Scholz have talked to Putin in the last few weeks as the winter war drags on with no one gaining from this war. 

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US president DJT outspoken in "The Conversation," with Dasha Burns in The Politico magazine about dangers of "civilizational erasure" for the Europe that people knew in the past as its population changes with uncontrolled migration of the past two decades. DJT comments on a wide range of topics centering on the migration that has changed the life and politics of Europe by 2025 and what the future holds for Europe if it does not preserve it's own identity handed down for generations. Dasha Burns starts with Ukraine- the reports say DJT said this or that about Ukraine but look at the question she put to DJT- Which country is in the stronger negotiating position? Most people know the answer in the winter of 2025 is that Russia is in a much much stronger position in 2025 and a big part of this is it's size 40 million people in Ukraine to 120 million in Russia and oil revenues. Then Burns asks if it is Zelensky who is responsible for the stalled progress what's going on here, all the time giving DJT something that he might take up that would make a headline grabbing interview. She prompts DJT with the starter phrases and pausing for DJT to pick up on it- If Zelensky rejects this deal, do you think Ukraine has lost this war, and the consensus in Europe is to keep supporting Ukraine until they can win this war. And DJT does no more than what he has said many many times about the difficult situation Ukraine is in. Asked if the US may walk away from supporting Ukraine as Trump Jr. has said, and DJT says- "No it isn't correct. But it's not exactly wrong" because they have to play ball. And that is exactly what the European states UK, France, Germany, Italy, have done as they keep talking and modify the original plan devised by Russia and the US. What this says is that the European states are not trying to win this war and at the same time not willing to let this war be lost and the principle of invading another country be seen as acceptable. This is where there are limits to DJT's diplomacy as he attributes the problem to the hatred between the leaders of the two countries. DJT does not say Zelensky would lose the election if one were held in 2026 as he calls for elections.   ...

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After three years o rock star popularity prime minister Trudeau's popularity has dropped so far that his party could lose the October general elections. This is after Canada's Attorney General resisted efforts by Trudeau and senior officials to let a Canadian company SNC-Lavalin avoid trial. Since then recording of a iphone call taken by the Attorney General with a top government official Mr. Wernick has created an uproar on this matter. Ms. Wilson-Raybould, the Attorney General saying in that conversation that this was going to look like nothing but political interference by the prime minister and everybody else involved in this. Nearly two thirds of Canadians now disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing according to a poll by Ipsos Public Affairs and Agnus Reid Institute.  Rock star popularity can fade quickly. In Brazil Ignacio Da Silva was popular till a crisis with state finances and the Car Wash scandal involving illegal payments led to the loss of his Workers Party in the recent elections. Mr. Trudeau had won support by supporting clean governance and giving women a say in governing. Ms. Raybould was transferred to a lower position after her unwillingness to follow government officials on the CNC Lavalin issue. Now the Liberals Party of Trudeau is trailing the rival Conservatives and Ms. Raybauld is a highly respected figure in Canada. ...

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Mysteriously Catherine Ojha, a European anthropologist, is cited here for what the word Bharat means to Indians. One only looks to the movement for freedom of hundreds of millions in southern Asia under Gandhiji to realize that it was for the freedom of Bharat that they were fighting for against the British Empire not the entity that was British India. It was the people of British India that financed Britain's defense in the Napoleonic Wars around 1800. Juan Mascaro the Cambridge historian who completed the translation of the Penguin Classics Bhagavad Gita had better grasp of India than an obscure except for French and other European language readers such as Ojha. 

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Misinterpretation of his remarks by the media with commentary presenting it incorrectly as criticism of DJT, says Pope Leo. Leo said that his speech in Cameroon “was prepared two weeks ago, well before the president ever commented on myself and on the message of peace that I am promoting.” “It was looked at as if I was trying to debate again the president which is not in my interest at all.” A lot of unnecessary commentary was made on this in the media exaggerating the Pope's comments to make political points about the opposite side in political discourse. When the Pope says he is going to talk loudly on the message of the Gospel in his visit to Africa, visit to Algeria, Anglola, Cameroon, it is clear he is talking about the domination of the colonial powers and the huge loss of life in these countries and about " the grossly "unequal distribution of wealth," in these  and other countries of Africa.  ...