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This Journal editorial looks at the reason why Trusts and shadow banking became systemic risks, with trust products growing 7- fold in 2007-2012. It says money tends to find its way where its needed, and without junk bonds as in the U.S. the additional capital needs were being met by Trusts. The lid on interest rates meant individuals turned to the Trusts for higher rates. And the regulators failed to control the systemic risks posed by Trusts with their low transparency and regulatory control.

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Apple to ship 25 million iphones made in India to the US for the June quarter 2025, meeting 50% of US demand. This will reduce iphone tariff from 20% for China to 10% for India. Apple will take $900 million in added costs for the tariffs for the June quarter and higher costs for future quarters. Apple made 24.8 billion on $95 billion in sales for the 1st quarter of 2025.  Apple will not get the $20 billion payment it gets from Google for making Google search the default search engine on Safari web browser. This is 25% of Apple profit. A federal judge declared this payment illegal on antitrust grounds. Another federal judge has referred Apple's App policies for criminal contempt investigation. Apple has been late to recognize the dangers of concentrating production in one country. Eight years after the 2016 election won by DJT Apple has not corrected this concentration in one country. Apple has focused on proift alone ignoring the potential for education for it's products such as the iPad. The public perception of Tech companies is that Tech is all about profit alone without regard for the Nation, education, investment in American communities and jobs, and other needs. ...

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Maps of the region of Kashmir in the Himalayas shown here show how close Pakistan cities of Lahore and Islamabad are to Jammu and Kashmir and how close the Punjab is to Kashmir. It gives recent history of Kashmir since colonial rule of British ended in 1948, and no mention of the history of Kashmir from 100 BC to the 15th century when for 1500 years Vedic and Buddhist cultures, Shiva culture prevailed in the region. For only 200 years between 1500 and 1700 were Muslim invasions prevalent in the region after 1750 the British gradually took control of the region when Kashmir was a British protectorate under British law and non-religious rule.  Much of the present situation is a result of the abrupt end to British rule after World War II by 1948-1950 with Communist China, a new state of Punjab and Sind called Pakistan, and most of South Asia as India emerging from the conflicts and contesting control. India now leads an effort since 2016 for modernization of the region, to provide the education and healthcare levels of modern states of Europe and America to Himalayan region that is missing because of a lack of the technological resources, and resources India is now able to use to build infrastructure and invest.  ...

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This is not just offering something to every group, it is rebuilding the middle class when seen in the larger context of rebuilding America's industrial base and taking  it to new heights after losing it to China under Bush-Obama 2000-2016. Under MAGA Trump inequality is tackled just differently from the way Democrats tackled it under Biden. The tax break for auto loans, interest on auto loans is deductible for taxes, is part of the new Tax Bill to appeal to auto workers. It is only applicable to US made cars and this promotes US made cars over foreign factory made cars such as the Germans and Koreans and some Japanese auto makers did before 2025. Reagan scrapped this tax break, it is back under Trump as the Republican base now includes auto workers and the now back to growth mode middle class. The deduction in local and state taxes increases to 30,000 to benefit small business owners. There is also the tax on tips which is removed. Retired people get an added $4000 deduction and not elimination of taxes on social security benefits entirely because of the Bryd rule that prevents changes to retirement with a simple majority vote not the 60 votes in the Senate.  ...

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This WSJ editorial is pessimistic about the prospects for Abenomics without the actions needed for structural economic reform. Japan is in a recession after two successive quarters of declining growth by the end of 2015. It gives credit to prime minister Abe for encouraging companies to add more independent directors to the boards and pushing for improving corporate governance, but finds other actions lacking. The low unemployment rate is seen as concealing the problem of two tier labor market with most of the recent job growth coming from temporary workers, and the total number of worked hours actually declining. The 30% decline in the yen has not boosted the economy as much as expected because it also means decline in consumer spending power, and Japanese companies continue to move jobs overseas. It cites a Nikkei poll showing only 25% of the Japanese public now see Abenomics as improving the condition of the economy. The declining growth in China is also playing a part in slowing growth in Japan, adding more headwinds for Abenomics in 2016....

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Huaxi, Jiangsu province, a few hours car ride northwest of Shanghai, is a village of 2000 residents. It has built a 74 story skyscraper, with a concert hall and a revolving restaurant. The village residents have joint ownership through Jiangsu Huaxi Corporation with the companies 2009 report claiming it has investments in businesses that return 50 billion renminbi or $7.7 billion in income. About 25,000 workers, mostly migrant workers, are said to be employed by the village. These workers work and live in an area outside the village. The whole story appears to be more that a bit bizarre. There is no other information on where this money is coming from and who is managing it. If anything this kind of story suggests how inflated and bizarre the property market in China has become. Even the word bubble may be understating what is happening. A massive misallocation of capital is taking place with the lack of transparency and corruption making this possible, which will very likely affect long term development....

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Rumelt argues that efforts to induce aconsumption led recovery won't work in 2011-2012 because of the high debt to income ratio of American households, reminiscent of the situtation in the 1930's as America went into World War II. It took a long period of over a decade to bring debt to income ratios down during the 1940's to 20% for America to once again stage a consumption based recovery. Since the solution of war time engagment and lower consumer spending due to wartime rationing is not a feasible solution today, a lot depends on stimulating investment. Rumelt does not say how this would happen in practice as corporations invest to increase production in a consumer based economy. Corporations can invest on increasing production for growing emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil, and this is happening today. But this does not increase growth in the U.S. economy, except in the limited sense that some of the high end development work takes place in the U.S. Policies that stimulate investment would set the stage for a future recovery. ...

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

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Jackson Diehl, deputy editorial page editor of the Washington Post, says its hard not to conclude that Obama is really not engaged with the struggle for democracy and democratic process in the countries of the Middle East and the Arab World. His voice is only heard sporadically, and is missing altogether at crucial times, as the people of Egypt, Libya, and other countries express their democratic aspirations. This has been the case from the beginning of this struggle and continues today. He cites an Arab opinion poll, from Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland with Zogby International, which shows a positive view of Obama at 34%, compared with 39% in 2009. When asked which countries have played a positive role, France and Turkey are given first place and the U.S. is close to China. This is because France's Sarkozy and Turkey have been actively engaged, and Obama has been silent for most of the time. Diehl says most Egyptians he talked to in Cairo in a recent visit, think that Obama's focus is on going along with the military and Israel. ...

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As Huawei's young engineers go through a learning curve, the company faces challenges of giving them additional business experience. Huawei is working to instill western practices and culture in its enginers by expanding overseas, and hiring seasoned engineers in Europe to mentor the younger Chinese engineers. Of the 23 Huawei R&D centers, 13 are located outside China. Huawei adds engineers right out of college- 50,000 employees were added in the last 5 years right out of college. Of the 149,000 employees, half work in R&D. Average age at Huawei is 29 years. In this sense Huawei is unusual for a high tech company compared to western companies. It is a plus for Huawei in the long run, but it means a lot of training is needed. Lars Bondelind, the Swedish head of wireless marketing at Huawei, describes these challenges at the 2012 Barcelona Mobile World Congress. Bondelind says the Chinese engineers he works with have higher knowledge and expertise than newly graduating Swedish engineers, the challenge is training them in western engineering and business practices....

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Tesla Motors delivers 10,350 vehicles in the 1st quarter 2015. This is a 55% increase over the same quarter in 2014. The target set by CEO Elon Musk of Tesla Motors is for deliveries of 55,000 in 2015, and reaching 500,000 by 2020. The new model Tesla Model X sport utility vehicle comes out in the second half of 2015. Tesla's expenses are going up rapidly with the higher sales, especially for a global supercharger network in North America, Europe and Asia, to meet new buyer concerns about the infrastructure. Capital expenditures budget for 2015 is $1.5 billion. Future expenditures include a $4-5 billion plant to make electric batteries. Tesla says it will not be profitable till 2020. Tesla is using attractive lease deals to overcome buyer resistance at a time of low gas prices. It is cutting back on plans for China. Tesla share price on April 2, 2015 was $191. This gives it a dizzy $24 billion capitalization, about half of the capitalization of GM at $58.8 billion in stock market capitalization, and Ford Motor at $63.4 billion. ...

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Home prices are surging in Australia in 2015, with home prices in Sydney up about 39% since June 2012, according to CoreLogic RP Data. As a multiple of annual income home prices in Sydney are at 9.8, Melbourne 8.7, and Wollongong near Sydney 7.5, compared to 6.1 for New York and 8.5 for London, according to a 2015 affordability survey by Demographia. Australia's surging home prices are happening just as the mining boom that powered its economy is winding down and unemployment is up to 6.1%. Interest rates are down to 2.25%, and low interest rates with speculative purchases are likely to fuel the market up further, say experts. About 40% of home loans approved in Feb. 2015 were to investors, increasing from 31% in 2009, according to official data. According to Australia's Reserve Bank the wealthiest 40% of the population have 75% of the debt. This surge when the economy is feeling the effects of the slowdown in China, and the rest of the world is cutting down on debt, puts Australia in uncertain territory....

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As appliance maker Fagor goes into bankruptcy with $1.16 billion in debt during Spain's long downturn, 1800 workers lose their jobs. Unemployment in the Basque town of Mondragon in northern Spain where Fagor is located, is up from 15% to 22%. Fagor was founded in 1955 and sold refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. Sales were 14 billion euros in 2012. An injection of 300 million euros from other members of the Mondragon co-op network and 80 million euros from workers failed to prevent the factories from closing. Decisions for international expansion with the acquisition of a French appliance maker created problems for Fagor because of the long economic downturn in the home base. Failure to move jobs to emerging markets with lower costs hurt Fagor, as Whirlpool and Electrolux moved jobs to China and other developing countries. Fagor's unique co-op structure of worker ownership made it difficult to move jobs outside Spain and France, and issuing new shares for capital is not possible under the co-op structure. ...

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This NYT editorial describes U.S. president Obama's West Point speech as lacking substance and overhyped. Issues of how to tackle relations with a more assertive China and Russia were left unaddressed, and the increase in tensions in Asia and in Europe were left out. Much of the speech used platitudes without spelling out what the U.S. would do, such as saying that there was no question that the U.S. would lead, it was about how it would lead. Questions raised about Obama's handling of foreign affairs will not be addressed by this speech, says NYT. The WSJ editorial on May 29, 2014, expressed a similiar opinion, suggesting that many are asking the same questions about whether there is a policy or whether it is being framed by Mr. Obama's personal preferences to stay out of most foreign issues and focus on domestic affairs, even though this means neglect of issues in which the lack of U.S. leadership will have serious implications for the future. Was the address an attempt to gloss over these obvious deficiencies with Mr. Obama's rhetorical skills?...

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Justin Leverenz of the Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund has seen the fund grow in five years from $3.9 billion to $41 billion in 2014. With the risk posed to developing markets economies from volatile capital inflows the fund is now closed to new investors. Often the mutual funds would buy and sell the same companies creating volatile inflows, and worse with sudden outflows as India experienced with slowing growth. Returns were 27% over 3 years 2010-2013, but have slowed to 2% to date in 2014 with the emerging markets crisis in early 2014. Leverenz is a quiet person and stays away from the limelight. He works solo without a team of analysts and tries to get a first hand feel for the companies he invests in by visiting and talking to the people at the companies. He travels for 6 months of the year, and has developed early relationships with fast growing Chinese internet companies Baidu and Tencent. He sees strong growth in India under the Modi administration, in China, and in Turkey....

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VW sales including Audi were up 34% in 2012. BMW sales were up 14%, and Daimler sales were up 15%. The growth rates for the German automakers surpassed growth in China. By manufacturing in the U.S. German automakers are better able to compete with the Detroit and Japanese carmakers in pricing. A third of BMW vehicles and a fourth of VW and Mercedes vehicles are now made in the U.S., according to LMC Automotive. VW has invested about $4 billion in the U.S. since 2008, including investment at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The German carmakers are now going for mass appeal with the VW Passat. Lower priced Mercedes models now sell for under $30,000. German exports to the U.S. increased by 24% in October 2012, compared to 18% for the eurozone overall. About 40% of German exports to the U.S are autos. Eurozone exports to the U.S. were up 18% in Oct 2012, and Britain's exports increased by 11%. British exports in Oct 2012 of 4 billion euros were second only to Germany at 8 billion euros....

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A partnership is formed between Dr. Reddy's and Glaxo focussed on emerging markets, excluding India. The products will be manufactured by Dr Reddy's and licensed and supplied by Glaxo in countries in Africa, the Middle East , Asia-Pacific and Latin America. In certain markets they will be co-marketed by the two companies. The deal gives Glaxo exclusive use of over 100 branded pharmaceuticals in areas like cardiovascular, diabetes, oncology, gastroenterology and pain management. Under the terms of the agreement the revenue results will be reported by Glaxo and shared between the two companies. This is part of Andrew Witty's strategy to take the expansion in emerging markets -especially in association with India- to a new level. Witty recently took over as CEO of Glaxo and is one of the younger drug executives at 43. Last month Glaxo acquired a 16% stake in South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare's Holdings Ltd. in a deal that expanded an existing partnership. Glaxo agreed in June 2009 to a deal with Shenzen Neptunus Interlong Bio-Technique Co. to make influenza vaccines for China....

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Honda Motor Company will have one bright spot as sales of motor bikes increase from 13.9 million to 14.9 million for 2009. Honda two wheelers sell briskly in Asia and South America, where they are considered low-price necessities. On the other hand Honda's auto sales will drop by 400,000 to 3.5 million for the fiscal year ending in March 2009. Honda will post a profit of $860 million or 80 million yen for this fiscal year, down 87%, by contrast Toyota will post a loss of 350 billion yen, and Nissan a loss of 265 billion yen. Honda is seeing huge growth in markets like Indonesia where $50 can be a down payment on a motorcycle., Honda sold 2.8 million motorbikes there up 34%.. Now sales are predicted by Honda Motor to drop to somewhere between 2.1 and 2.5 million bikes. Honda markets heavily to people under 25 in Indonesia, who make up half the population of 240 million people. Honda is also working on lowering costs of manufacturing by focussing on production in India, China, Thailand and Vietnam. ...

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Philippe Varin faces some tough decisions when he takes over Peugeot-Citroen. Unlike the turnaroungd he achieved at Corus steel group where the booming demand from China for steel helped, this time the auto market in Europe is declining by about 30%. He has to navigate betwen the interests of the Peugeot family which has 45% of the voting rights, employees who are affected by the cost cutting, the French government which has required no closing of factories for as long as the company receives governement aid. Peugeot-Citroen received a low interest loan of 3 billion euros from the French government. Questions he will have to address, as do all auto manufacturers in the USA and Europe relate to overcapacity as demand declines. And for Peugeot this has to be tackled without factory closures. And the other major issue facing auto manufacturers worldwide is how much to focus on the fuel efficient small car segment. Peugeot has key strengths in this segment and Varin may decide on refocussing on this segment....

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The clout of China's environmental agency the State Environment Protection Administration has grown significnatly in the past 12 months. SEPA rejected 110 projects in 2006 for environmental damage, and in 2007 it rejected 187 or about $91 billion worth of projects for environmental damage. China requires environemntal asses ment for sttell mills, power plants and other projects as part of the approval process. So even as criticism of the Chinese government has built up for environmental damage SEPA is getting new clout and the government is rethinking how all these projects can some day come back to haunt the administration for environmental impact if something isnt done very quickly to cancel all projects that dont meet environmental quality standards. This is something to keep watching first because it ensures longterm sustainable economic progress and second it reduces the cost of cleaning up which would reduce economic growth in the future, third because the quality of air and water lead to really sustainable economic development in the future. This is a Watch Link for sustainable economic development. ...

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On December 29th 2007 just before the new year 2008 the year of the Beijing Olympics a predicition that sooner or later, sometime soon maybe after the Olympics the stock market in China which is running at some 65-75 time earnings in Shanghai and Shenzen is going to blow up. Its a facade of an orderly equity market which it isn't. The state control many of the stocks and how the stock market operates, good information on companies is scarce, some of the earnings and the investments of companies are in the stock market itself, and not many shares actually change hands as government held companies or other companies have large holdings. Without good accounting who knows if the earnings are not inflated. There are very few alternative investments as savings accounts yield less than inflation and Chinese laws do not permit investing abroad so all this money is flooding the stock markets and it keeps going up so there isn't the situation where stocks go up and down as in a normal market.