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Difficulties facing the recovering airline industry as the price of oil continues its increase. Goldman Sach's Group raised its forecast from $68 per barrel in 2007 and 2008 to $80 in 2007 and $90 in 2008. Airlines have already taken a lot of the costcutting steps from flying lighter more fuel efficient planes to smaller steps like reducing the weight of beverage carts and taxiing on the runway with one engine and so on. But their forecasting and business plan estimates of oil costs have been far off the mark and hedging has been inadequate. Lasty year as per the ATA, Airline Transport Association, 42% of the consumption on average was hedged at $60 per barrel, this year 2007 only 31% of fuel consumption on average has been hedged at $62 per barrel. To give some idea of how far off the mark, United's business plan used $50 per barrel through 2010, and Delta used $65 in its business plan for 2007. Expect more fare increases and capacity reductions if this price trend for oil continues. ...

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Its of huge importance that the banks who had a capital injection of $125 billion on Monday October 13, go out and lend some of that capital but this looks increasingly unlikely for the next quarter for some of the banks with gaping holes in their balance sheets and even for a couple of quarters according to some analysts. Merrill's Thain said it was unlikely considering Merrill's losses that it would do so for another quarter and Barclsy's analyst Roge Freeman "its quarters off , if not months off, before you see that capital being put to work." In that case proposals that help homeowners become critically important as more and more howeowners in a downward spiral could find themselves under water which is a point that has not been grasped by the Bush administration. As access is denied to credit markets unemployment rises for small and large businesses and this alone leads to more troubled omeowner loans. nd the auto and credit card debt problems still remain to be worked out creating more downward spiral....

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Andy Stern, head of the Service Employees International Union, in an interview with WSJ's Matthew Kaminski. Membership at the SEIU has doubled to 2 million while other unions have gone into steady decline. In 2005, Stern took the SEIU out of the AFL-CIO preferring grassroots organization over political emphasis and emphasizing the shift to a service and global economy. He sees a new situation from the one in 1993, as the issues facing the country have changed. He lists the income inequality and stagnation of wages. He prefers the European model. Better a little more unemployment as Western Europe has done, but a lot more equality, says Stern. And as the ranks of the uninsured swell with the half a million laid off workers in November in the USA reported by the Labor Department, the first priority for the union is universal health care. With donations of $85 million from the SEIU being the largest of the total union donations of $450 million for this years elecion campaigns, the SEIU hopes to hold the new administration accountable....

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The Rivlin-Domenici Deficit Report recommends freezing US defense spending from 2012 to 2016 at its current level of over $700 billion a year. This means the Defense department budget would not be adjusted for inflation, and the military would not have the $431 billon in additional spending that the Congressional Budget Office had projected. By contrast Defense Secretary Gates has sought to keep the Defense departmet budget growing at 1% a year after inflation, plus the costs of the war in Afghanistan. And the Bowles -Simpson Deficit Commisssion chairmen have recommended $100 billion in savings by 2015 be used to reduce the deficit. The way Gates sees it the savings of 2-3% annually in department contracts would be used for other military purposes. Rivlin-Domenici and Bowles-Simpson do not see it that way, they want to use the money for deficit reduction and improving the economic prospects for the US.

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For years the US shunned artisanal mining by small operators using children with no safety equipmentn for cobalt supplies. With China restricting the supply, the US AID agency has a $20 million program to integrate these small operators into the global supply chain. The US is coming to terms with the "inconvenient truth" that is there when it involves mining in the Congo for cobalt, a precious metal that is needed for renewable energy and lithium ion batteries in electric cars. Don't forget that 70% of the world's cobalt comes from the Congo and a third of this is dug up in small mines dug up in an in formal sector where children also work and there is no safety equipment. 

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The growing middle class in Mexico is to be seen in cities like Queretaro, far from the drug violence seen in cities on the Texas border. Even though growth has averaged only 2-3%, the number of Mexicans who see themselves as middle class in a country of over 100 million is 65%, according to a survey by pollster Jorge Buendia. The definition of middle class is a new refrigerator, a car and a couple of cellphones. Sometimes this is also aspiring to be or thinking you are middle class. A big change is the shift to small families. Astonishing as this may sound, Mexico's fertility rate has declined from 7.3 children per woman in 1960 to 2.3 today, according to the World Bank. The U.S. fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman.

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GM is willing to sell amajority stake in Opel to the German government. Opel employees want to see that happen, as they say GM never understood Opel's potential. The unions favor this with IG Metall saying about 400,000 jobs will be affected in the car and related businesses with an Opel collapse. And directly at Opel in Russelsheim near Frankfurt the plants employ 29,000 German workers. This is now a big issue in Germany. The bailout of German banks is as unpopular in Germany as it is with Americans, with their own bailout of banks and financial institutions. And Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats are seeing polls showing voters shifting allegiance to the Free Democrats, which reflects opinion of people in smaller independent businesses unhappy with the bank bailouts.

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Are lower sticker prices for 2007 compared to 2006 an effort to bring manufacturers suggested prices more in line with the actual price or value pricing, or do they suggest a better deal for buyers in comparison to 2006? It is not clear across all models without doing the arithmetic for each, however cars come with more features than before and it appears that competition and falling sales for the big three make it necessary to attract customers with better buys. But with higher discounts on the models designed to clear inventory, 2006 models can be sold for less than 2007.

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British Firms back up the Stern Review a study commissioned by the British government by joining together on carborn emissions reduction. The 18 top companies in Britian backing up the Stern Review include Tesco, BP and BT employ 2 million people and have $2 trillion in revenue. What the Stern Review pointed out is that investing 1% of GNP now will save costs worth 20% or more of GNP in future years. Heres how- the companies will develop a standard on how companies regularly report emissions, will invest in technology and emissions saving projects, and will reduce emissions froim cars and offices.

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Cerberus Capital will lose its entire stake under the plan announced by the Obama administration. And Fiat will be limited to a 20% stake in Chrysler, down from an earlier figure of 30%. And Fiat will have to repay the $6 billion loan that the Obama administration is willing to make before in can take astake in Chrysler of above 49%. Obama administration official confirmaed that the Cerberus 80% equity stake no longer holds value and that the firm's ownership would come to an end. Only if Fiat and Chrysler reach an agreement in 30 days will Treasury invest $6 billion in Chrysler. The task force requires Chrysler to eliminate the "vast majority" of roughly $9 billion in outstanding secured debt. Cerberus acquired Chrysler from Daimler AG in august 2007 when US vehicle sales were 16 million a year, and did this by having Chrysler borrow heavilyusing its plants and property as collateral. $10 billion of secured debt was raised, and $2.5 billion was paid down of it. With prices of gasoline hitting $4 things collapsed. Chrysler sales fell 40%, and Chrysler was loaned $4 billion by Treasury. Now Chrysler has 30 days of working capital from Treasury till it reaches an agreement with Fiat, and before the government provides an additional $6 billion if the agreements as required by the Obama task force are reached....

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Low prices are a curse says an energy expert at Stanford University. He says it makes public policy sense to do something akin to boosting the price.

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Distraction is a major problem numerous studies show. The Internet with its overabundance of information and distraction can make people work in less smart ways and make for shallow thinking. The Roman philosopher Seneca on how being everywhere is like being nowhere.

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UnitedHealthcare says it will keep parts of the healthcare law relating to preventive healthcare services without co-payments, allowing parents to keep children on insurance till age of 26, even if the Supreme Court rules against the healthcare law. Most insurers see these parts of the law that are popular quite favorably.

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As the Chinese government is pushing for more transfrer of technology one effort is for a Chinese partner and overseas partner to build a car from scratch for the Chinese and export market. Honda is going to build a car from scratch in China with its Chinese partner.