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The real estate bubble in China continues to grow even after th pandemic. Local governments depend on land sales for about 60% of their revenues. The government in Beijing also is unwilling to let prices decline too much because this could create unrest. As a result households have continued to add second, third homes in speculative investment. Unlike the U.S. where households invest in the stock and bond markets and residential property investment is one of several options, in China this is the only option people believe. The notion of continually rising prices is built into the mindset in China. This is happening even as those who do not have homes are still priced out of the market, and those with savings are pouring them into housing, more so as people save more in 2020. This can be seen in the vacant homes rising to about 40% for those buying second homes. People are also taking on more debt with consumer, mortgage and other debt of households getting close to 60% of the country's GDP, a high leverage ratio. This also means there is less capital to invest in productive investments in industry as more and more savings are tied up in housing with large vacancy rates meaning the housing is not even being used. Some of the speculative nature of this can be seen in this report in the WSJ for cities such as Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzen. ...

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Important aspects of Britain's new immigration policies after Labour's losses to Reform UK in municipal elections. This is likely to accelerate now that You.gov poll shows Reform UK gaining more seats than Labour in a general election. A tax on universities for foreign students, eliminating visas for care workers, and other action tightening visas issuance to bring migration down, immigration down, create more opportunities to hire locals, getting employers to hire Britons, and reducing burden on housing and public services.

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Karl Lauterbach, a popular physician, is the SPD's and Olaf Scholz's choice for Health Minister in Germany. Lauterbach says he will strengthen Germany's health care system and its vaccination drive. Klara Geywitz will head the new ministry of Construction and Housing setup by the SPD and Scholz, one of 2 East Germans in the new Cabinet. The new government plans to build 400,000 new apartments every year to ease a massive affordable housing shortage. Hubertus Heil will remain Labor and Social Affairs Minister to reorganize the unemployment benefits system and raise pay of care home workers. SPD will take 8 of 17 Cabinet positions, with the other nine going to Greens and FDP. There will be an equal number of male and female ministers- one of Scholz's promises. Germany moves in a new direction with new hope for the future.

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Renewed warnings about the bubble in housing prices in China. Earlier warnings came from Krugman, Lardy, John Taylor. This one comes from Nomura economists Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen. Could the government's action to curb rising housing prices not be adequate leading to a financial crisis as early as 2014, is the question posed by Zhang and Chen. They cite the rise of housing prices by 84% from 2001 to 2006, before the financial crisis of 2008 in the U.S., using the Case-Shiller housing price index. One problem- the government statistics may have underestimated the extent of the bubble. China's official index shows housing prices rising 113% in major cities from 2004 to 2012. Zhang and Chen say this is much smaller than the actual rise because it includes older, lower quality housing property. They cite an academic paper that adjusts for this and finds prices jumping by 250% in the period 2004 to 2009. Another problem is that China's housing prices growth slows after government action but then resumes the growth, leaving the risk exposure at the high level as before. Because the local governments are tied up in the housing bubble the problem would hit the banking system. About 14.1% of the outstanding bank loans are to local government financing vehicles, and 6.2% to property developers, according to Nomura economists. The declining potential growth rate in China means there is less room for bad loans to be absorbed by hyper growth levels than in the past. Errors in policy can magnify the risk including loosening monetary policy and exacerbating the bubble at the wrong time. In the absence of errors the risks still remain requiring the sale of public assets to bail out local governments and banks. The argument made by Krugman and other economists has been that China is not immune to the risks of a housing bubble going bad, in any way less than Sweden, the U.S., Spain and other countries, requiring bailouts of banks....

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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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Housing and migration are major issues in the Dutch election. Omtzight is an intellectual who heads the New Social Contract Party that has economic policies to help working families and also wants to see curbs on migration. It ends a period of 14 years in which Mark Rutte a moderate was prime minister, 

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Spain's fight against mass tourism shows that at some point  mass tourism lowers the quality of life and access to housing for locals. Did you know that Spain is the second most visited tourist country with 85 million tourists a year. France is the first with 90 million tourists.

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Healthcare coverage of illegal migrants is at the center of the fight between Democrats and Republicans leading to the government shutdown on October 1, 2025. A slight majority of Americans favor deportation of illegal migrants is shown in a recent NYT poll. Even higher numbers are likely to see higher priorities in the Nation than funding of housing and healthcare for illegal migrants when most families in the US are living from paycheck to paycheck and government subsidies and assistance are being cut after Covid.

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Economists mentioned here at Global Insight and Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, see a slowdown in the economy and some see a rate cut of half a point by the Fed's poilcy making committee meeting Sept 18, 2007. The labor market slowed from ann average gain of 200,000 jobs in 2005 and 2006 to a loss of 4000 jobs in July to August. period. Note that the effects of the housing crisis on jobs in the housing and finance sectors and the further downstream effects on the auto sector have not yet rippled throught he economy, so its still to show up in the numbers, and this confirms that the direction is on the downside

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This editorial in the Economist says Spain's economy has recovered to pre crisis levels by 2018 with growth at 3 percent. It says Spain had a bigger crisis than Italy and took stronger measures under prime minister Rajoy to fix problems in its banking system, address the housing crisis, and unemployment. Italy's steps by comparison were timid and faltering. Mr. Rajoy had his problems including corruption scandals in his party and a poor handling of the Catalan drive for independence. Yet Spain owes muchas gracias to Rajoy for his leadership in bringing Spain out of the housing and economic crisis, and for running the country for two and a half years after losing his majority in parliament.  Another difference with Italy is the generally favorable attitude to immigration for all parties. Of the newer parties Ciudadanos remains at the centre and the Podemos party remains to the left in politics, as part of the populist changes in Spain during the economic crisis. The new government of Pedro Sanchez has a positive attitude to immigrants and to women, with the largest number of women in the cabinet of any European country. ...

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Housing prices declined for the 22nd consecutive quarter in Spain, declining by 0.5% in the 1st quarter of 2014 over the 4th quarter 2013, and 3.5% over the 1st quarter 2013, according to the Development Ministry. Inventory of unsold newly finished home is about 1 million, many with Spanish banks taken from bankrupt property developers. Prices in the open market are down 30.6% from the high in 1st quarter 2008, according to INE. Except for Greater Madrid and Balearic Islands with large number affluent Northern Europeans with slight price rises, house prices dropped in all regions.

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The Liberal Party is falling behind the Conservatives by double digits because of cost of living and housing concerns. Mr. Trudeau's popularity is dimming. His government is a minority government that depends on the New Democrats for key votes in parliament. Mr. Trudeau talks about personal sacrifices on this job. Canada will elect a new government in 2025.

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The devastation from Hurricane Helene in the Tampa Bay Area that includes St Petersburg. WSJ shows the flooding in low lying coastal areas such as Shore Acres.The price of real estate went up in the Tampa Bay Area as population increased to 3 million. After the hurricane supply of housing on the market is up 58% with demand up 10%.

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NAR statistics may have overcounted home sales in the U.S. going back to 2007. NAR statistics showed home sales for 2010 at 4.9 million, down from 5.2 million in 2009. CoreLogic, a real estate analytics firm says it counted only 3.3 million home sales in 2010, down from 3.7 million sales. This is a wide divergence and suggests more severe problems in the housing market in the U.S.

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Chinese president Xi's determination to make good on the slogan "Housing is for living, not for speculation," by imposing a property tax on homes in 30 cities, is facing resistance within the Communist party and from local governments. Mr Xi hopes to squeeze out the excesses of the adoption of capitalist market systems in China since 2000. China's government opted to get feedback on this idea and the feedback is largely negative forcing the government to scale it back and look at other alternatives such as affordable housing to make home purchases accessible.  Some reasons for the pushback are that it is becoming a social stability issue and risks alienating officials within the ruling party and homeowners. The fact is that 90% of urban Chinese families own their homes and housing related industry makes up about a third of China's output. Also significant is that 80% of China's wealth is tied up in real estate. What could happen is that if housing prices drop in China urban consumers might cut back on spending because they feel poorer. Party officlals advised against introducing property tax in 30 cities. Now it is scaled back to ten cities, and a new law could take till 2025 to introduce property taxes in the whole of China. Cities that are likely to be used for the property tax now are Shanghai, Chongqing, where an annual charge is levied on second homes since 2011. Cities added to the list would be Shenzen, Hangzhou, China has financed much of its industrialization through land sales by the Communist local governments in a country where land ownership was with the national Communist government after the revolution in 1949.  Mr. Xi wrote in Qiushi party journal that "we should actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, and do a good job in the pilot work." Local communist governments get about one third of their revenues from selling land to property developers, and they are anxious that a tax on real estate would make demand and price for the land they sell to drop drastically. To get some idea of this- the local governments had $1 trillion in revenues last year. ...

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In this economy there is wide divergence in the US for upper income people earning well on assets they own at 5%+ for extra income and the lower middle classes wage earners that are struggling even with low unemployment and inflation at 3%. WSJ looks at these two divergent parts of the US economy and what can be done. Inflation could be worse with higher Trump tariffs on imports, says WSJ. The situation is a difficult one for families struggling even with higher incomes, as this one in Michigan in the WSJ, that finds it necessary to take money out of savings with prices higher but not reflected in inflation statistics of 3%. One example is higher housing and apartment rental costs with 25% of families having to spend over 50% of their income on home rental leaving little for food and expenses. President Biden has called for limiting price increases on home and apartment rentals to 5%, and Harris has proposed aid for families spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Strong action is needed. ...

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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A look at how Kamala Harris plans to focus on specific aspects of the Biden Economic Policy Agenda that are of the greatest concern for the American public. Cost of living action is the highest priority. Harris has ideas on this issue to cut housing costs and has specific proposals from 2023 with rising housing costs to tackle this by limiting rent increases to 5%. She will also come up with specific actions to sharpen her focus on cost of living issues to help ordinary Americans cope with rising cost of living for groceries, autos, auto repair bills, insurance costs, and energy costs. Economic advisors include the following from the years since 2020 with Biden as his VP- Brian Nelson,Treasury Department, Mike Pyle   Deputy National Economic Advisor for International Economics, Brian Deese     former National Economic Council Director  Gene Sperling, former Biden Economic Adviser, Deane Millison former Harris Economic Adviser, Rohini Kosoglu, Grace Landrieu, Bharat Ramamurti.      ...

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Picture of a weather sign outside a Pharmacy in Paris shows the heat wave hitting Europe- the Temp. 44 degrees C. This is 111 degrees Fahrenheit. In places loike Seville, Spain the temperature can get even hotter. Europe is woefully under airconditioned with many hospitals and public facilities lacking airconditioning. The US is far ahead in airconditioning. Conservative parties in Europe are accusing the liberals in power of not doing enough. In London Sadiq Khan is Mayor and housing construction rules require considering other cooling design options before putting in air conditioning. Some members of parliament call this "ridiculous."  In France the opposition parties say the government "is out of touch." Consider government views in France. Energy minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher says heat from large-scale air conditioning would make heat waves worse. “It’s a bad solution, We should air-condition for vulnerable people to give them a break, but on the other hand we shouldn’t do it everywhere.”  ...

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Infratest Dimap polling institute is commissioned by DW.com to find out what Germans think of the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel one year later. In summer 2015 Merkel said on Aug 31, "We can do it." Costs related to the refugees are about $17 billion, do Germans think services are overstretched for education, healthcare housing and other services. On the other side German society is aging and for every 100 unemployed people there are 200 open positions for skilled personnel. But the refugees who are accepted do not have the skills required and have to acquire the skills or given training and education. On this issue DW.com asked the question whether it will strengthen the German economy. About 51% agree and 45% disagree on this question, and about the same number agree and disagree on the question that Germany will be overstretched providing the services for housing, education, healthcare and other services. The higher educated and young are more favorable to accepting refugees, with those over 50 and basic schooling unfavorable. On the AfD side most people are unfavorable, and in the Greens party most are favorable. On terrorist incidents probability, over 58% think this is more likely, 38% disagree. On the question of whether this will make Germany more diverse 56% agree, 40% disagree. Overall the situation appears to be balanced, with a range of views expressed, and the positive and negative sentiment "evenly balanced", says DW.com.  ...

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Leung Chun-ying takes office as Hong Kong's chief executive as China's president Hu Jintao calls for a resolution of the deep social conflicts in Hong Kong society. Leung promised to improve social mobility and boost land supply because the bubble in housing prices makes housing unaffordable for the middle class.

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The unaffordability of housing is pushing more people to rent homes and apartments. The price increases for housing was 4.4% in January 2025 over 2024. This is lower than during Covid years. The supply of housing is tapering off and declining. As a result in the next 2-3 years says the WSJ the housing rental costs will rise sharply again. Added is the effect of deportation on construction workforce which has 13% of workforce as migrant labor. 

Housing makes up one third of the price index. Expect this cost to go up and inflation will not be coming down to 2%. The Fed will have to hold off on cutting rates to prevent another surge in inflation. 

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Homes that are built within homes that are modular units for affordable housing and in some cases even bring attention to the problems of homelessness in our big cities around the world. Something you have not encountered in this way.