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Krugman says crypto currency has become a huge, really huge player in campaign finance. He says it accounts for almost half of corporate spending on political action committees PAC's in 2024 election year in the US. He calls it startling that this is happening even though crypto currency destroys value. Krugman says crypto is not like fossil which is doing the same thing getting people to deny climate change yet with benefits from using fossil as a transition fuel, crypto not being a real industry at all.

Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman is clear that it has dangers for the American economy-

He says crypto rests on nothing but a perception that some day there might be a genuine use for these products. That we do not know when the government gets serious about regulating crypto marketing practices and policing its criminal uses. And adds that much of the $2 trillion in crypto may simply evaporate.

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This WSJ report looks at how China is run today with attention to details by president Xi Jinping. Mr. Jinping takes interest in all matters that relate to wellbeing, reducing gaps in wealth and privilege, coronavirus pandemic, corrupt businessmen or officials, climate change, and the economy. Some decisions have to be reversed after they appear not to be working. In some situations goals conflict such as climate change action on coal requiring shutting down intensive coal dependent factories, and economy jobs goals requiring use of coal intensive factories. Leading to a complete reversal of the original decision to cut back on use of coal as happened in 2021 when factory shutdowns affected the economy.  Jinping does not see it as micromanagement. Previous leaders such as Hu Jintao had little interest and did not put in the effort to seek out areas where policies were not working for families and workers, delegating this to lower level officials. Jinping's style is hands-on and energetic to act on issues that affect how China should be run so that the quality of life of ordinary Chinese is improved. Jinping says that if he did not take action there just is'nt the level of initiative on the part of local officials. Many officials are not competent to tackle complicated issues. Jinping says that "some officials only act when the central party leadership has instructed them to do so." And that he acts as a last resort- "I issue instructions as a last line of defense." His willingness to reverse decisions or let them be implemented with local officials using their discretion if he thinks that would be wise also shows a level of flexibility and humility. Basic to his decisions is a general idea that the original vision of China of the founding leaders in 1948 was forgotten in the headlong rush to modernization of the last 20 years. This means a balance was needed to restore some measure of equality and empowering of the disadvantaged. Xi Jinping's father was one of these founding leaders under Mao and under premier Deng during the market economy founding in the 1990's. Xi Zhongxun, Jinping's father was an energetic leader who also took a keen interest on a whole range of issues for China's modernization drive, a trait now found in Mr. Jinping. The first market economy experiment was done under Xi Zhongxun with premier Deng's encouragement. Xi Zhongxun set up the Guangdong and Shenzen special economic zone in 1979, as governor of the province in an effort to liberalize the economy and slow the exodus to Hong Kong. At the time wages in Shenzen were 1/100 of wages in Hong Kong. Some of this style can be seen in India with Mr. Narendra Modi delving into details of policy and taking intitatives that local officials had neglected to do on a whole range of issues related to modernization, development and technological progress. One of the decisions made by Jinping was to tackle Covid aggressively with a zero Covid policy, which means frequent lockdowns and restrictions even with a few cases. Mr. Modi has also acted vigorously on Covid after warning in March 2020 that this could set India 20 years back, with a policy to get over a billion people fully vaccinated. In both situations the only two countries with over 1 billion population needed this kind of strong leadership with an interest in a whole range of issues that relate to lives of ordinary people during the pandemic to inspire some essential level of public confidence and build public wellbeing.     ...

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Amanda Lacaze of Australian rare earths maker Lynas- what can be learned from her experience in rare earths? Lynas is a Australian mining company with a mine in an eroded volcano Mount Weld that has a concentration of rare earths metals. In 2014 it was faced with China's near monopoly of rare earths and price subsidies, lack of awareness in financial markets and the government about the importance of rare earths in manufacturing. It was a period under the Obama administration that after the Bush administration had little grasp of the importance of manufacturing in America and how its decline would affect communities across the Nation, economists trumpeted the virtue of free markets without grasping how China would wrestle control of manufacturing with state subsidies and aggressive pricing and of strategic new technologies.  This included rare earths where the monopoly was close to 100%- if it is 90% today it is because of companies like Lynas. Production processes at Lynas's plant in Malaysia were not sufficiently developed in 2014. When Amanda Lacaze (now 66 years and head of Australia's Minerals Agency) joined Lynas in 2014 the first problem aside from getting Japanese creditors to restructure loans because of aggressive pricing by Chinese firms was to improve manufacturing processes to get 95% quality instead of 48% quality (measured in number of quality rejected product). This was achieved in the first year. To do this she thinned her management ranks and closed offices in Sydney (to cut costs) and moved management to Malaysia where the problems in manufacturing processes would make or break the company. She was able to get creditor Japanese government backed Japan Australia Rare Earths financial institution to renew and extend loans. Had this not happened the company may not exist today. It shows the sheer foolishness that pervaded most of the American industry at that time, the failed economic theory that said America could not support its industry when rivals were supporting theirs, the Bush and Obama administrations that had no understanding of how the industrial competition was takin place in world trade that could substitute other nations for America' s dominance in manufacturing and did little to push back and regain the position for America in world trade. This ignorance continues in some sections of business today that cannot see the plain facts and refuses to see the enormous damage to the Nation from the destruction of its manufacturing base and loss of good jobs in communities across the US. Lynas is now getting contracts from the US government for rare earths and is the only reason China's dominance in rare earths in 90% and not 100% along with MP Materials of the US. Planning was discredited in the crazy euphoria that turned the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Communist Soviet Union, as economists never understood that planning that was used by the Soviets and Chinese in their Five Yer Plans is just borrowed from centuries of basic ways of conducting business that had originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain. Without planning the growth of the British Navy and the industry that supported it Britain could never have gained the dominance that it did in the 19th century Industrial Revolution. As the Industrial Revolution spread in the US in the 19th and twentieth century every major company had a 1 year Operating plan and a Long Range Plan for 5 Years and 10 Years. The government would have identified rare earths with foresight as one of the newer technologies and the manufacturing infrastructure needed to support its development if these plans were developed at the different levels of government and at the highest levels. This was done under market economy in China. Instead DJT was forced to step back from trade negotiations with China for unfair trade when China held out with a threat to stop export of rare earths materials in 2025, because a huge hole or gap in planning happened at the highest levels of the US government. That happened 11 years after 2014 when Australian rare earths maker Lynas survival was in doubt under a new CEO Amanda Lacaze. This is only one of many misses in American manufacturing and industry, in world trade, that came from misguided economic theory and failure to grasp the basic facts behind the success of the Industrial Revolution in Europe and the US. ...

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Powell needs agreement of others on Fed Board to set US interest rates August 2025. There is now a divergence of opinion with some Fed members looking to lower interest rates in coming months to aid the US economy as it resets the terms of world trade for a level playing field for all, something that had not happened by the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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Advertising revenues increased for Google, Facebook and Amazon in 2020 as these three companies took over 50% of total ad revenues in 2020. Large companies shifted more ad spending from television and print media to digital in the pandemic after finding the return on ad spending was increasing on digital. Smaller companies including the jump in startup companies increasing from 300,000 a month over the decade to 500,000 by July 2020, put all their ad dollars into digital. The result is that the pandemic has given the 3 digital companies a dominant role in the advertising economy. More time spent in front of computer screens, more ec-commerce, new business formation, and tech companies ability to steadily increase return on ad investment, has produced strong revenue generation. The pandemic had the effect of increasing retail purchases online from 10% to 16% in the second quarter of 2020. Biscuit maker Mondelez found that return on ad spending was 25% higher on digital compared to television and now spends about half of its $1.1 billion ad budget on digital. Trendy garment makers are seeing returns on ad spending that are high with quadrupling of sales following a doubling of ad budget for active apparel maker Vuori of California. Small advertisers such as Vuori are the reason digital ad spending has remained strong for Google, Facebook and Amazon. For furniture maker Steelcase in Michigan the return on ad spending on digital using Amazon made up for the lack of sales from its brick stores. It increased online staff from 2 to 25 and was able to bring in $30 in sales dollars from $1 in digital ad spending. ...

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Some local governments in China are making vaccination mandatory. China is setting a goal of getting 64%  of the population fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. In European Union countries mandatory vaccination by country or region is now being put in place to fight new coronavirus variants that spread faster in the population. The reopening of economy, business and tourism is increasing the risk from variants in summer 2021. The mandatory vaccination is a way to increase the percentage of the population that is vaccinated. Getting younger people who lag behind to get vaccinated is important to protect the percentage of the elderly population that is still not vaccinated. There are risks also to the younger population as seen in previous waves of the pandemic. The initial hesitation to make health pass showing a person is vaccinated mandatory was because only a small fraction of the population was vaccinated in Europe. Now that over 50% are vaccinated in most EU countries and UK, that hesitation thinking that it is discriminatory to those people who did not have access to vaccines no longer exists. Ample vaccine supplies and the misinformation spread about vaccines are making action on health pass necessary to protect the overall population. National governments in France, Denmark, Austria, Greece, and local governments in Germany, Portugal and other EU countries such as Ireland, Italy, see the danger from coronavirus variants that spread quickly as too big to take any risks a second time. ...

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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G-7 nations reach agreement for a global minimum tax of 15% a floor for taxes that the Biden administration finds acceptable. This agreement was reached at a meeting of the Treasury chiefs of the 7 G-7 countries in London on June 5, 2021. The G-7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US. Next agreement from Russia, China, India and Brazil in the G-20 nations would establish new ground rules for the major economies. The G-20 meeting is in Venice July 9-10. The OECD is steering the international efforts to achieve that goal. For the agreement to be effective a number of small nations that use tax rates of below 15% to attract business have to be part of the new rules. One of these countries is Ireland with a tax rate of 12.5%. For the Biden administration in the US the goal is a significant one as president Biden seeks business to pay its fair share so that long neglected priorities for education, healthcare, infrastructure, post pandemic improvements can be met. France and other nations in the EU face similar needs in the post pandemic environment. By setting a floor the Biden administration is both creating a new cultural concept of fairness in taxation and making it possible to finance the $2 trillion spending programs for these priorities of president Biden. Behind this are important facts that have left the large tech businesses paying little or no tax depriving governments of the very revenues that are needed for infrastructure and services for a modern well run state. The Biden administration seeks to include the tech businesses as well as all businesses in the new tax rules so that a uniform idea of fair taxation applies across the whole economy for the first time in two decades. In this way it makes up for the missed opportunities in the OBC administrations of Obama, Bush, Clinton that have led to loss of faith in the state and institutions in the US. A similar situation prevails in the UK,  France and Germany where previous administrations failed to address this important issue of fair taxation and financing infrastructure and priorities in health, education, and critical needs of the people.   ...

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When the president and his administration are investing trillions of dollars in the economy as Biden is doing with support from friends in Congress from both parties and the US economy is growing with Made in America reviving American manufacturing- this changes the way labor and immigration can be viewed. There is an expanding demand for labor in such an economy and this is true today. Paul Krugman in the NYT shows evidence that the native born Americans have not lost jobs to immigrants in 2019-2024. Much of the demand in the restaurant, hotels and health care industries, in construction, agriculture and occupations native born Americans are less interested in filling are filled by entry level workers who are immigrants. The Wall Street Journal showed in a recent report that Topeka, Kansas is trying to recruit new immigrants to come and live in Kansas where the unemployment rate is lower than the national average today under Biden of 3.7%, and there are thousands of jobs to be filled. This is why Senator Graham of South Carolina and Tillis of North Carolina, the senior Republicans in the Senate, were trying to fix asylum and parole policies in immigration with the help of president Biden to close the border and yet allow an organized flow of new immigrants to the US to fill jobs that would otherwise remain unfilled. Not everybody wants to live in Topeka but there are immigrants such as the Venezuelan and Colombian immigrants shown in that report who are happy to live in the Kansas winters in the prairies of the American heartland. Many come from educated backgrounds and are similar to other Americans already in Topeka such as the mayor of the town, and fit in well say officials in Topeka promoting economic development in the state. It is noteworthy that Kansas is a Republican state for decades.  ...

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John Taylor on the dual mandate for inflation and unemployment and discretionary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve that ended up creating booms and busts in the U.S. economy. He advocates replacing the dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "stable prices," which was inserted into the Federal Reserve Act in the 1970's, with a single mandate for "long-run price stability." Taylor points out that this will still give the Fed flexibility, as it is focussed on long run price stability. The Fed does not have to overreact to short run increases in inflation. And he points out that this actually will work well for unemployment as the booms caused by an overextended period of low interest rates such as that in 2003-2005, have led to booms followed by busts with high unemployment.

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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...

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The media fails to give a clear complete picture of effects, context, concept behind tariffs and AI won't know. Effects on inflation- June inflation is 2.7% compared to May inflation of 2.4%. The central bank head, Fed chairman Powell has not cut rates to gauge the effect on inflation with new data. Powell says the US economy is strong and inflation remains low. US Market access fee-The US and overseas media including WSJ has not pointed out that the tariffs agreed to by Japan, European Union and South Korea of 15% are really not tariffs but a fee these countries and their business sectors in major industries such as autos and machinery, pay to access the US market. DJT, USTR Greer, Treasury's Bessent expect these companies to not increase prices. Fairness: US had 2.8% tariff on cars EU had 10% since 1980's. Rebates will go to some income groups. Rebates- In the one third of products in clothing, shoes etc of the $50 billion in tariffs for first half 2024 where about 5% price increase is passed on to consumers as shown in WSJ report this is likely offset by rebates to certain income groups. DJT says- “The big thing we want to do is pay down debt, but we’re thinking about a rebate. We have so much money coming in from tariffs that a little rebate for people of a certain income level might be really nice.”     ...

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This report in WSJ shows how people are adapting to coronavirus pandemic taking the long view and settling down with new arrangements that will continue into 2021. Some software engineers are shown redesigning their homes to setup offices for working dads and moms where they previously worked out of temporary arrangements in the home. Physicians used telemedicine in the early months of the pandemic. They still see patients only once or a couple of times a week in specially designed arrangements where patients stay in the parking lot till they their appointment and waiting rooms are largely empty. It is a season of deeper adaptation as people realize they are in this for the long run into 2021. Workers are setting up new routines and home offices, families are trying new rituals, and businesses are trying new ways to energize their employees, all with the objective of making it work in the long term. Though the economy has reopened office buildings are largely remaining empty, schools and colleges are remote teaching as cases are climbing with the daily average at 40,000 a week in the U.S. and over 70,000 in India each day. ...

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

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The Brazilian economy is growing too fast, and this pace not only won't be sustained, but it has signs of serious trouble ahead. The Brazilian economy grew at an estimated annualized pace of 10% in the last 6 months and generated 962,000 jobs between Jan-April of 2010. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 7%. The jump in growth is partly the result of the stimulus measures of the Lula government. But a consensus of experts is that Brazil still saves too little, has not invested enough in infrastructure,and its economy has the potential of 5% sustainable growth each year. The central bank has increased interest rates - increase of 0.75% in April 2010, and economists in Brazil think the rate will go up to 13% in 2011. About $10 billion in cuts in spending have been announced but they are cuts to an already growing budget approved by Congress, so in reality it will only slow the increase in spending. Public debt is at 42.7% of GDP. Real interest rates have fallen from close to 20% in 2003 to between 5-10%. Costs per unit of labor are increasing at about half the rate of real wages according to a finance official. The National Development Bank or BNDES played a role in helping the economy with subsidized loans when the financial markets ran into trouble. It has expanded lending by 50%, with money from the Treasury of 180 billion reais. Some of the measures of the Lula government has reduced the skewed income distribution Brazil, and in doing so has increased consumer demand. Meeting high consumer demand, and meeting the need for commodities like soyabeans and metals from China, has boosted growth in Brazil to twice the sustainable rate and it is now at a par with China and India. But this places Brazil too dependent on the boom in Chinese demand, especially as the stimulus in China slows and the property bubble threatens China's economy. See links to China. A new President after the upcoming Presidential election will have to tackle the high interest rates in 2011, lower commodity prices, and the need for better infrastructure, and make the adjustment to a sustainable pace of growth....

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In a policy unchanged since 1950's women in China retire at age 50 and men at age 60 years. China is aging faster than the US and it's population that is over 60 years is 20% of the population. Over the 5 years to 2025 about 40 million people will retire, about the size of the population of Canada. There will be 36 million fewer people in the working age population ages 16-59 to support them. Chinese migrant workers and families work longer hours than white collar workers making it difficult to raise the retirement age to European levels in a short time. The government's approach is to get public support by creating awareness about the problem and change the retirement age gradually over a longer period. The first step will be bringing the retirement age of women to the level of men. The 10 year gap in retirement age of men and women is not found in any advanced economy.

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Photos of industrial decline in the US with text by Helen Epstein, professor of human rights and public health in The Guardian. This was a period in the early 1980s when America's major industries in steel and other parts of the economy went into decline. Cities and towns across this vast land were left to decline with loss of jobs and with it decline in quality of life, decline in health, education, says Prof. Epstein, as the Democratic Party jettisoned its foundational principles. The term "Reagan Democrats" emerged in the late years of the Carter administration, and again after Clinton, Obama took the shape of the Trump vote. By 2021 the situation has reversed with the Democratic Biden administration putting forward a program for revival with his $1.8 trillion Families Plan for infrastructure and for the benefit of America's workers, students and families. What was a protest vote during 2016 is now taking new shape in the form of this plan for the renewal of America. ...

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The CDU has the nost popularity at 34% yet Merz himself. a private equity executive with Black Rock Germany, is not personally popular with the German public. His popularity is at about 25%. Boris Pistorius, the Defene Minister in the Scholz SPD and Greens government is the most popular politician in Germany today. Elections are only 4 months away in February 2025, a short time but also a long time with all the changes going on today. In the past CDU and SPD have worked together. Past CDU approaches may not work as Germany badly needs to invest in its economy as the US has done under president Biden. The experience of Britain shows that simply making deals and counting on free trade deals doesn't work, and cuts to public services to budgets including on basic services including water and transportation, climate, do not work either. Are their good leaders and policies that fit the times is a question that will be persistent for many nations.

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One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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The UK government figures show GDP growth for the 3rd quarter 2012 of 1%. In the 1st quarter the economy contracted 0.3% and in the 2nd quarter 2012 it contracted 0.4%. This news is tempered by the fact that one time factors such as the Olympics accounted for the increase. For the year the results for GDP growth are likely to be flat and only modest growth is expected in 2013.

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China GDP growth forecast at 5% in 2025 and first half actuals at 5.3% with frontloading. The frontloading is because of surge in exporting before tariffs hit by May.  China is waiting to put fiscal stimulus as it fears tariffs will lower growth and increase unemployment. The housing sector is in deep slump. At this point fiscal stimulus is determined in Washington DC. The actual growth in 2025 may turn out to be much lower than 5% considering the weakness in the economy and the issues of tariffs and tough trade negotiations with the US and a changed environment for trade with the European Union.

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alluring scenery but hollowing out. Rail station in Dunedin New Zealand looks like it is from the 19th or early 20th century. New Zealand wages are 27% lower than Australian wages in 2025. New Zealand's weak, economy cuts in public services in 2025 affect jobs and employment. New Zealand sees emigration of 69,000 for the year to Feb 2025, highest on record.  Australia has mining and huge demand from China and India for its coal to support it's economy. In a paradox black coal in the interior supports a healthy lifestyle with weather and sports in the coastal belt of Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, and further up the coastline in Perth and Adelaide. New Zealand life means higher grocery prices and less quality than Australia, it means health services are not as good, and the public services are being cut to reduce the deficit and borrowing. Most migration is to Auckland and towns in the interior look scenic such as Dunedin but are increasingly seeing people leaving for lack of prospects, lack of pay raises and high cost of living, poor public services. This is a cycle that was felt in 2002 and goes back a long way and is unlikely to change. ...